The "Super Coil Break" trade

[walterw 10]

Do you get like this :mad: when the market is like this :zzz: ????

 

Well you know what... that type of market may anticipate a great bussiness oportunity... let me call it "Super Coil Break"... a trade designed for people who follow all the session... unfortunaltely I am becoming that people jejeje... well this trade demands first : patience and then a very simple timing entry technique... with a trend following method where you can get the most of the move...

 

As you can notice this is not a scalper method... we can add some nuances to this trade later.... cheers Walter.

[Guest cooter]

Walt,

I'm confused again.

 

I was going to ask why you exited your initial trade so early, based on this pic here:

 

 

 

But then you posted another chart with a different exit.

 

 

Just trying to understand the nuances of your entries and exits on these setups...

 

Is the break into the outer Keltner the exit scenario?

 

What is the re-entry signal then?

 

Please help me see the light through the Friday fog?

 

thxs

[brownsfan019 17]

Walter - are you initiating the trade on the first break or a close outside the keltner? The 'bands' out there - keltner, bollinger, etc - can work well in the example you gave assuming the bands do not break on false breaks. In other words, having looked at keltners myself, I found many times where price would peak it's head outside the band enough to initiate a trade and then quickly retreat back into the band. Needless to say, that was awhile ago and haven't gone back to any band indicator since.

[walterw 10]

Walt,

I'm confused again.

 

I was going to ask why you exited your initial trade so early, based on this pic here:

 

 

 

But then you posted another chart with a different exit.

 

 

Just trying to understand the nuances of your entries and exits on these setups...

 

Is the break into the outer Keltner the exit scenario?

 

What is the re-entry signal then?

 

Please help me see the light through the Friday fog?

 

thxs

 

 

Actually there are two diferent setups there : one is a "Super Coil Break" wich has a trend following type exit.... and the other one is a "Flip" Trade wich on the chart I show the scalpers exit (normal exit) and given the super momentum conditions I showed a trend following exit too...

 

The trend following exits are when we get back inside the keltner bands...

 

I ONLY take this type of exits when market climate has super momentum (taking way off the keltner outerbands)....

 

hope this clarifies the charts... actually they belong to two diferent threads... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Walter - are you initiating the trade on the first break or a close outside the keltner? The 'bands' out there - keltner, bollinger, etc - can work well in the example you gave assuming the bands do not break on false breaks. In other words, having looked at keltners myself, I found many times where price would peak it's head outside the band enough to initiate a trade and then quickly retreat back into the band. Needless to say, that was awhile ago and haven't gone back to any band indicator since.

 

Yes Brown, the entry was when it got out of the first keltner and let me tell you after 75 minutes of coil (super coil ) its worth the risk... because you have a great potencial being build up for the break, the longer the coil the more explosive the break.... vs a very tight stop below the resistance.... as you can see some times this type of strategies can work very well because they have embeded a very good RRR on it... so its worth the try...

 

I cant say, I wont take a breakout trade because there are false breakouts... would not be that smart on this type of scenario when we had not a coil but a "super coil".... this one was live with 30 contracts and when out all together at the first exit signal wich worked for 9.4k... its the only type of trade besides my M`s I am willing to take inside the day, must confess I havent trade this setup for months...

 

I did repent not to take live the flip that happen after that.... its still on beta lol....

 

Again the nuance is : The longer the coil, the more explosive the break... Cheers Walter.

[momentom 10]

Nice setup Walter. Have you tried looking for an entry on the first pullback of the breakout and also to qualify the breakout with, say, 50 CCI > 50?

[walterw 10]

Nice setup Walter. Have you tried looking for an entry on the first pullback of the breakout and also to qualify the breakout with, say, 50 CCI > 50?

 

Hi Momentom : in this such large coil, you can expect big explosions on the break and many times there simply is no pullback to give you an entry... so crossing these keltner level should do it.... on a regular coil... yes, I would suggest taking the pullback wich would actually be a flip... in terms of cci 50 I am not following it... but the sinonimous reading would be with keltner... should I remind that cci oscillator 0 line works like a detrended average, so levels 100 and 200 would be equivalent to bands by x atr`s... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Want to add another chart from fridays super coil and make a comentary of two clear characteristics that make a "super coil"...

 

1_ Loooooong period going nowhere..... (in this case 100 minutes)

 

2_ Always cycling inside smaller keltners...

 

 

"Super Coils" are easy to recognize, it just takes patience.... and they dont happen every day.... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

I have to make clear that this thread is not related to "flip" trades, its about a complete diferent setup, its about "Super Coil Breaks" ... thanks to Brown and other people here I am following the entire session... so on my siesta I will monitor for "super coils"....

 

so far we are having a 30 min coil... that is price inside my small keltners on a 55Tick chart from russell a 100 exp 2.5 atr keltner (white)... very slow market... if this continues another 30 minutes I would start to consider it a "super coil" if not there is no setup... we will see.... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

O Lord ¡¡¡ it breaked... but with 40 minutes long... could we consider that long enough to say it was "super coil"....??? I marked entry an exit that could be used.... with white keltner position is still open as I write this post... cheers Walter.

[Guest cooter]

my small keltners on a 55Tick chart from russell a 100 exp 2.5 atr keltner (white)...

 

The outside keltner(black), would the atr be 5 then?

[walterw 10]

The outside keltner(black), would the atr be 5 then?

 

correct.. 2.5 white, 5 black...

[walterw 10]

Today there was a nice small coil break I followed on real time, didnt trade it... just observation... I liked how it performed on the second break... there was great velocity on that second break confirming we where heading south.... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

And finishing the day another one... in this case timing with cci... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

If you have a "SUPER COIL" wich means its laaaarge coil.... when you have a break, you may want to enter on the break ....

 

When you have a "NORMAL COIL" wich means normal size... you dont want to enter on the break, but on the pullback continuation...

 

I atach an explanition of the two types of pullbacks you may have after a break... one is outside the coil, other is inside the coil...

 

if its outside it will be very similar to a "flip" concept...

 

if its inside the ideal pullback should not cross the midle level of the coil thus showing weakness, and for timing you can take the trade with a cci 0 line cross OR you can take the second break wich most probably will have success...

 

Coil Breaks respond to the intrinsic concept of contraction and expansion of the market conditions...

 

Market its similar too a lung... it gets air (expansion) losses air (contraction)... thats why you can expect after a very large contraction to get a very nice expansion...

 

Whats the worst scenario on a coil break trade.... well going from coil to coil... very dull market... he just doesnt want to take off... in that case you want to close your trade, take your cat and go to the park... tomorrow there will be plenty more trades... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Today at the very beggining of the day I observed (did not trade) this nice clean coil break...

 

What called my attention was that it started forming after only 10 minutes of session, and had 12 minutes long with an almost perfect morfology... wich for that time of the day we could consider it "long coil"...

 

The confirmed break of the white keltner would have made a very nice entry... and for exits should be considered a re-entry to the keltner... cheers Walter.

[dupaski 10]

Walter,

 

Thank you for this thought provoking thread. Could you clarify the actual settings you are using for the KC's?

[walterw 10]

Walter,

 

Thank you for this thought provoking thread. Could you clarify the actual settings you are using for the KC's?

 

 

shure Dupaski ¡¡ the previous chart is a russell mini 55 tick chart with a 100 keltner exponential 2.5 atr (white ) and 5 atr (black)... I actually use this chart for my "flip" aproach.... also long coils between the white keltners can get sweet breaks... glad to help, cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

I am paying attention to this almost 1 hour coil... will it be a super coil break ? we will see.... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Almost 2 hours coil.... mmmm... will this be a super coil break ? maybe yes, maybe not... but the contraction expansion concept could have potential here... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Well, no big deal today on a 3 hour coil.... it just did not happen... 1rst break was a stop and 2nd one worked for a little move... I think that when break happened we where already too late on the session.... cheers Walter.