Testing Times.

[Gamera 15]

One trade for the prep above, price formed a hinge by the time it cleared this I was away from my desk.

[Gamera 15]

A little tougher to see what is happening on the lower time frames.

[Gamera 15]

3 trades undertaken during the session.

[Gamera 15]

Price is still within a messy range and the LL still hard to define.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Gamera

[zdo 20]

?? re:

http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/131/41217d1491916886-testing-times-nq11042017multiprep.png

 

Gamera,

How are you able to garner any different information from (or more information) between your 10 minute charts and your hourly charts?

[Gamera 15]

 

Gamera,

How are you able to garner any different information from (or more information) between your 10 minute charts and your hourly charts?

 

I have been wondering what the point is myself recently as the charts look close to identical. I just quickly look to see if there are any levels within the hourly that stick out that might not otherwise be visible on the 60 minute time frame, but, flat PA leaves the chart looking like the scale has gone a little off on the 1m. I prep activity related intervals that condense the overnight session and was thinking I will go back to using those along with the hourly unless something sticks out on the 1m prior to open.

[Gamera 15]

Managed to butcher what seemed like a good day for trading.

[Gamera 15]

Possible change on the daily in preparation for a move lower, hourly time frame has price ranging and the lowest time frame is showing weakness to the upside.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Gamera

[Gamera 15]

Not the best of days for trading.

[Gamera 15]

Daily has confirmed the ret after the break of stride, LOLR is back down again.

[Gamera 15]

A little frustrated with myself again, I keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result. My expectations regarding PA in the opening moments of a trade might not be as realistic as they should be, my lack of patience is problematic.

 

Skipping trades or waiting for extra confirmation is a fear of the unknown and it tilts me a little knowing I pass on a reasonable trade that works out, the ones I do take more often than not fail which shows the importance of taking every trade.

 

The only real problem I have today was my reasoning around the exit of trade 2 and the miss after the BO of the pre-market range.

 

Positives, its not all bad, I think I am picking out the context and turning points reasonably well I just mess up the management.

 

Notes: A little woulda, coulda, shoulda as I lost interest once price dropped off after the stop out on trade 2.

[zdo 20]

On the longest time frame charts you utilize, do you know the percentages (over time) of how accurate ‘what you see’ is?

Are you able to assign real-time confidence levels to that accuracy?

[Gamera 15]

On the longest time frame charts you utilize, do you know the percentages (over time) of how accurate ‘what you see’ is?

Are you able to assign real-time confidence levels to that accuracy?

 

As I trade off the lower time frames (1m) I did not go into too much stat collection on higher time frames such as the weekly and daily. These time intervals are more for gauging the overall market direction and major turning points or opportunities, I like to get a sense of who's side I'm on when I take a trade.

 

I know what my metrics are through back testing and studying swing point breaks, stride breaks, breakouts, continuations and retracements. If behaviour changes (enough) as price approaches an hourly or greater level, I am reasonably confident that there will be a change of direction, but, as has been the case lately, if PA does not move quickly doubts set in and I tighten up, or I don't take the trade or the stop out rule is just tagged.

[zdo 20]

On the ‘medium’ time frame (1 hr? 10 min ? ... 10 min) frame charts you utilize, do you know the percentages over time of how accurate ‘what you see’ is? Are you able to assign real-time confidence levels to that accuracy?

[Gamera 15]

Prep for the day ahead.

Edited April 17, 2017 by Gamera

[jpennybags 11]

Prep for the day ahead.

 

Gamera...

 

I took just enough time to do a cursory read of your past posts in this thread, and I see a pattern in your trading. Without being able to get inside your head (observe your trading day-to-day) I would be reluctant to offer advice... people do what they do, for whatever reason that they do what they do, because they need to do what they do (yikes... that was no help).

 

I've been doing this for a while, and I believe the best answers come from within. In that context I would offer that possibly you may want to try eliminating the "prep work" that you do each day. I think you may be setting up biases that reside in the back of your mind that then influence your trading decisions on the faster chart (the chart you are actually trading). I don't want to say too much in this regard, as too many words often lead to confusion of the message.

 

It's just an observation... nothing more... something to consider.

 

Best of good fortune...

[Gamera 15]

On the ‘medium’ time frame (1 hr? 10 min ? ... 10 min) frame charts you utilize, do you know the percentages over time of how accurate ‘what you see’ is? Are you able to assign real-time confidence levels to that accuracy?

 

At the risk of sounding ignorant of what is happening on the higher time frames I would say that my answer is about the same as the last one regarding the higher time frames, I can tell you that 85-90% of my larger trades (>20 points) are sourced from Hourly/Daily/Weekly levels in the form of a stride breaks, reversals or breakouts.

 

These levels are not exact, I focus on behaviour as price approaches, reaches or surpasses major swing points or medians of prolonged ranges. More often than not (cant give accurate number as exit notes have multiple reasons) the behaviour would change by enough of a margin to exit or flip, this does not mean that price stopped at a level just that the behaviour changed.

 

As for lower time frames, when I was collecting stats for the metrics I use I weigh them up at what point a certain scenario becomes more probable rather than measuring win or success %.

 

I'm bad at explaining things but I'll try my best. I don't know what is going to happen after a trade is triggered so I don't set targets I only define risk, I'm not so sure on how to project outcomes without targets, a profitable trade is not necessarily a good trade and a losing trade is not necessarily a bad trade. I cant say that a stride break trade has a 67% chance of being profitable by say 10 points, I know that the average entry leg on a stride break ret is 7.5 points, a ret that holds beyond a range limit following a BO will have an entry leg of 11.5 points but just because price moves this distance is, in my mind, not a reason to exit. On the other hand, a stride break of a certain value will have an outcome that means price is unlikely to progress further in the direction it has been travelling, this could be a reversal or a range but an exit is the safest option.

 

Clear as mud.

 

Most of my rules are in the first few posts to the thread, I'm considering re-evaluating these metrics as they are often getting caught, doesn't help that I'm executing the plan as poorly as I am.

[Gamera 15]

Gamera...

 

I took just enough time to do a cursory read of your past posts in this thread, and I see a pattern in your trading. Without being able to get inside your head (observe your trading day-to-day) I would be reluctant to offer advice... people do what they do, for whatever reason that they do what they do, because they need to do what they do (yikes... that was no help).

 

I've been doing this for a while, and I believe the best answers come from within. In that context I would offer that possibly you may want to try eliminating the "prep work" that you do each day. I think you may be setting up biases that reside in the back of your mind that then influence your trading decisions on the faster chart (the chart you are actually trading). I don't want to say too much in this regard, as too many words often lead to confusion of the message.

 

It's just an observation... nothing more... something to consider.

 

Best of good fortune...

 

I was thinking along those lines at the weekend as I often find myself avoiding trades because I think something is likely to happen and ignoring what is happening. I was trying to word my prep today with what I saw on the various time frames (one of them will work out) without a bias either way.

 

I'll likely still prep ahead of the bell but the focus would be more on where the opportunities lie than on where I think price will go.

[Gamera 15]

Days trading results.

[Gamera 15]

Plan to wait and take trades at the upper or lower limit of the range.

[Gamera 15]

Frustrations around the upper limit of the range.

[Gamera 15]

Not much to pick out on the lower time frames.

[Gamera 15]

Whilst the previous day was interesting, too many distractions led to an observation only day. Prep for the day ahead is a little bare bone on the lower time frame.

[Gamera 15]

More trades and I think slightly better application.

Edited April 22, 2017 by Gamera

[Gamera 15]

Range has expanded slightly, possibility of mean reversion, time will tell.