Testing Times.

[Gamera 15]

Prep for the day ahead, price is still in the range.

[Gamera 15]

No trades yesterday as price was indecisive around the UL of the prep range.

[Gamera 15]

Results for prep posted above.

 

Just prior to open the supply line was broken and price was in the process of retracing.

 

Trade 1: Long SLA reversal - 1m entry.

Took a long when the ret of the SL was confirmed, this was very close to the open and I was a little concerned about wicking, this concern meant I managed the trade very tight and exited when the ret swing low was breached.

 

Thoughts: Whilst entries at open can be riskier the trade in itself should be managed appropriately, the DP would have been placed around the lows prior to open at 5168. PA was not doing exactly what I wanted at open so I found a reason to get out for a smaller loss. A little whipsaw is to be expected at the open.

 

Trade 2: Long BO - 300t entry.

Failing to break lower than the pre-open lows, price quickly broke the opening high and retraced, this was a BO but I also looked at it as a later confirmation of the earlier stride break. Price rallied and broke stride a few times, these breaks were mostly weak (sideways break) which meant the DL was fanned a few times.

 

Price broke stride and created what was considered a DT at the time at 5185.25, there was no obvious reason for a change in direction so held off for a swing point/stride break, PA almost forced an exit, but, demand pushed price higher. Eventually there was a stride and swing point break which triggered an exit.

 

Thoughts: Not much to think about with this trade, considered a possible TP at 200 but price could not reach that level.

 

Trade 3: Short SLA Reversal - 1m entry.

Once the DL was broken one waited for the ret which confirmed, triggering the short. I was watching the earlier swing low at 5180.25 and saw price get a kick form that area before breaking stride, then there was a HL followed by a narrowly HH, price continued rising before the trade was exited on a swing point break.

 

Thoughts: Very poorly managed, the earlier swing low had stuck out as price had rallied strongly from this level, whilst the short was not a problem holding the trade when it choked on this level as long as I did is, I was clinging to metrics despite the evidence.

 

Trade 4: Long SLA Reversal - 1m entry.

SL was broken and there was a small ret, I hesitated and waited for another cleaner ret which triggered the long, despite breaking stride slightly after entry price continued higher. Price broke stride and the exit was taken.

 

Thoughts: It occurred to me watching the higher time frames (5min) that this was possibly a ret in a series of LH and LL (ret after 2nd leg down) so would have been a short lived trade anyway.

[Gamera 15]

Some issues that came up meant I missed the open.

 

Trade 1: Long SLA Reversal - 300t entry

Took a long on a ret after a stride break, whilst there was confirmation with a weak follow through price failed close to the previous days high and dropped off breaking the earlier swing low and triggering an exit.

 

Thoughts: Terrible trade, price had made a big departure from the SL earlier which meant the best entry was 30 minutes after open, I was aware of the previous days high but lacked patience as I was tilted prior to starting. There was a hinge that I was watching, and this was also the first ret after price broke back above the apex of the hinge.

 

Despite the upcoming DL is was poorly prepared and focused so I shut it down for the day.

[Gamera 15]

Prep for the day ahead, not as clear cut with the overnight action.

[Gamera 15]

Only one trade for the day as the PA seemed to be lacking any direction by lunchtime.

 

Trade 1: Long BO - 300t.

Working from the 300t posted in the prep there was a small range that I was keeping an eye on, price had opened near the mean of the range and had spent the opening hour waffling between this level and the UL before breaking out.

 

Whilst the UL was tested a couple of times there was no substantial break until 10:22, the subsequent ret triggered an entry long, there was a little follow through before price failed on a new push higher, the drop from here broke stride, swing low and re-entered the range invalidating the trade.

 

Thoughts: The first red flag was when price pulled back from the entry and then dogged higher, trade could have been scratched on the failure as this was not behaving as a breakout would be expected to.

[Gamera 15]

Prep for the day ahead, not much in the way of reference points so just using the most recent swing lows and highs on the low time frames and stride from the higher time frames for direction.

[Gamera 15]

No trades to report from previous days prep, today's prep has price continue its march higher.

[Gamera 15]

No trades for the previous posts prep, weekly chart posted with this prep as an idea for the time being.

[Gamera 15]

No trades from previous prep, I have the tendency to shut things down after a couple of hours as the PA is not so clear to me when looking for entries.

[Gamera 15]

The opportunities are there for the taking, but, my "feeling" about the current PA is making me hesitant at times.

 

Trade 1: Long BO - 300t entry.

Price broke to new highs and the subsequent ret gave an entry a few minutes later. Price pushed higher before backing up and breaking the tightest DL, I held on through this break but exited as price broke back into the UL.

 

Thoughts: Standard trade that did not work out, more concerned by an earlier trade that I passed on as the SL break ret around open futzed around causing me to pull my order.

 

Shut down after exiting the trade.

Edited February 17, 2017 by Gamera

[Gamera 15]

Prep for the day ahead, Overnight PA double topped at the PDH, very weak drop off and with the hourly stride still intact a BO of this DT would be the most likely course of action. Lower limit is not so well defined.

[Gamera 15]

No trades for the previous prep and I was unavailable at open for the prep on the 17th.

 

Thoughts for trade on the 17th: Seemed to be a lot of hesitation around what I deemed to be an upper limit for price, once there was a little follow through it was just a case of managing per rules and exiting once the stride break ret appeared.

[Gamera 15]

Prep for the day ahead, weekly and daily might be a little confusing with the colours, but the focus would be on the channel and where the opportunities might lie.

 

Hourly is still very bullish and the 300 tick is seeking equilibrium via a hinge.

[Gamera 15]

Trades and reasons for them are posted on the charts as it might be easier to illustrate what I was looking at on the charts.

 

Thoughts: A little frustrated at times as I am making mistakes, more precisely, I am floundering as the PA seems vague. I am placing a lot of emphasis on swing points and these don't really seem to hold up as well as I might expect, the market is pushing into new territory and these levels that I am looking at won't really be noticed by those that are driving price higher.

 

When a trade is taken one has to know who is on one's side, I don't want to bring feeling in it, but, price seems to be probing a lot, generally strong demand, but, a lot of deep pull backs on weak continuations from an intraday perspective.

 

I may have to put less emphasis on the intraday swing points, trade off of TO's from the hourly and perhaps be a little less discerning with trades via SLA i,e stop dismissing trades because they are at a level I am unsure about, the setup is the setup.

 

Second chart attached (300t) might paint a better picture than my words.

[Gamera 15]

Hourly and 300t posted as prep, not much to note from the daily perspective for the time being.

[Gamera 15]

Still finding myself a little resistant to acting upon new information as PA points towards a change in direction. Trade 1 was an example of being overly attached to an idea and giving it more room than I should have, notes on chart.

 

Not much thoughts on the day, price spent the day inside the previous days range, after trade 2 I stopped as it was getting into a time of day where we would likely see price continue to meander.

[Gamera 15]

Premarket breakout of the previous range not going with the exuberance one might expect from a breakout, despite what I think price is heading higher for the time being.

[Gamera 15]

Interesting day, saw the post elsewhere by DB regarding the weekly chart that gave some insight as to what may lay ahead. Doubts/overthinking early on meant an order was scrubbed on a decent setup, another trade scratched as I was paying attention to the PA which indicated a failure prior to any metric being met, and a tightening up on management (hourly TF) meant an early exit on the final trade, notes on chart.

[Gamera 15]

Prep for the day has us approaching a possible LL of a trending range at 5280.

[Gamera 15]

Took on 3 trades and on reflection I was chasing my tail, prep was poor and some of the decisions made were worse. Notes on chart.

 

Thoughts on prep: As mentioned not so long ago the prep for the day ahead is a little poor, where are the trading opportunities, where might price struggle, who am I trading with/against. In this instance 5300 being a round number might act in a manner that would support price, a tighter SL gave one an entry some 30 minutes prior to open at around 5302-3. I was working with the looser (blue) SL as it fit with the time I was available, and this was in the process of being broken at open.

 

Things I need to work on:

Preparation, I'm struggling to identify trade opportunities/context on higher time frames.

Hesitation, orders have been cancelled despite the setup being on plan.

Patience, At times I have tried to make things fit, (fear of missing out) causes me to chase, I know I have missed the best opportunity, I need to let it go and prepare for the next opportunity.

Tunnel vision, keep an eye on the higher time frame charts.

Rigidity/adapt, PA can change giving a clear indication that a trade is going to fail before a DP is hit, i.e dogs, DB's and DT's, outside of a strong TO one should not be so attached to a make or break trade idea.

 

Things that seem to be ok:

I seem to be able to manage trades as per plan once they get going. Still struggling to blow out the cobwebs but I can see the changes in the PA a little clearer.

 

Need to apply myself a little more as I have regressed quite a bit and feel like I am repeating mistakes that were largely behind me.

[Gamera 15]

Late getting started today so prep is after market open.

[Gamera 15]

No trades from the previous session. Look ahead for the day on the charts, not much change from the daily and weekly perspectives.

Edited February 28, 2017 by Gamera

[zdo 20]

No trades from the previous session. ...

 

The great twentieth-century composer Karlheinz Stockhausen once made this comment on the nature of composing: “The marvelous thing about composing is that you make thousands of arbitrary choices, how big to make the notehead, how large to draw the clef, how long to draw the stem of a note. None of these decisions changes the sound of the music, but by making those choices, you learn to be decisive ”

 

As you practice making choices, you begin to develop an instinct for making the right choices, the ones that lead to the most successful realization of what you want to create. Who do you think has the higher probability of success, the person who has avoided making choices or the person who has made tens of thousands of choices and who has had a chance to learn the feel of right and wrong choices?

 

Choices take practice. It is a developed ability. The more you choose, the better you will choose.

 

I recommend that you practice making small, quick choices whose outcomes have a low risk factor ...

Robert Fritz

 

Keep on gettin' up, G

 

 

all the best,

 

zdo

[Gamera 15]

One trade for the day and a chart with thoughts attached.