Testing Times.

[zdo 20]

Actions for the 22nd.

 

g,

 

Where do you put your stops?

 

z

[Gamera 15]

g,

 

Where do you put your stops?

 

z

 

z,

 

Stops are usually placed above swing highs or below swing lows, if PA shows hesitation moving in a certain direction I might exit before the criteria is met. It can be a little knee jerk at times.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 25th, most of the decisions were based of the 10 second chart this time around.

[zdo 20]

z,

 

Stops are usually placed above swing highs or below swing lows, if PA shows hesitation moving in a certain direction I might exit before the criteria is met. It can be a little knee jerk at times.

 

Is that optimal?

Ie is it statistically sound in light of when/where in ‘swings’ (or whatever nomenclature the wakoffs are using these days) you enter?

[Gamera 15]

Is that optimal?

Ie is it statistically sound in light of when/where in ‘swings’ (or whatever nomenclature the wakoffs are using these days) you enter?

 

z,

 

It was the best that I could come up with, a swing point marks a level the traders were unable to move beyond and started moving price in the other direction. I looked at a couple thousand examples of swing point breaks focusing on breakouts, range extremes, reversal/stride breaks and strong trending moves in order to figure out the danger point (the point at which a swing point is broken by enough of a margin that it will likely keep going).

 

Is it optimal though? I've questioned myself on this a few times and my stats would say it is not. 90-95% of trades that move more than 3.5 points negative (MAE?) will be closed out at a loss, the trades that move over -3.5 points and close out positive fall a long way short of recouping the losses of the losing trades, effectively making an auto stop of 3.75-4.00 points more optimal than a swing point break DP.

 

BUT

 

Those stats were generated from trading as I did not think about other ways of managing a trade other than swing points, BO's, stride breaks, and not so much by the testing phase where rules could be more easily or rigidly followed.

 

If it isn't obvious my trading has been as far from optimal as one can get with the process being heavily influenced by emotion and bad habits that have crept back in which has skewed the stats making it harder to figure out if they stack up or not. Might need to dedicate a weekend to this study.

 

g

Edited September 27, 2017 by Gamera

[Gamera 15]

No trades for the 26th as I was unavailable for the session. Prep and actions for the 27th, quit around noon as I was unable to stay focused.

[zdo 20]

 

...

 

If it isn't obvious my trading has been as far from optimal as one can get with the process being heavily influenced by emotion and bad habits that have crept back in which has skewed the stats making it harder to figure out if they stack up or not. Might need to dedicate a weekend to this study.

 

g

 

Consider that this may be a time to work on the ‘subjective’ aspect of stops, instead of ‘stats’. Instead of “dedicate a weekend to this study” on objective optimal stop placement for your system - ie ‘study long (may be) study wrong”... it might be better to ask questions like ‘is there a way for me to utilize (and possibly move) stops DURING trades to preempt / intervene in my “emotion and bad habits” ?’ etc etc

You need to intervene in the reactivity before. .. to get out in front of these things a little bit ie by the time you’re aware of “emotions” it’s too late. 'Manipulating' stops may be a practical, non sycho, way for you to do that. If not, "dedicate a weekend" to finding other ways to intervene in the reactivity would be better time spent than objectively 'statistizing' on stop placements... hth

Edited September 29, 2017 by zdo

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 28th, missed the opening minutes of the session and felt a little out of sorts for most of it.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 29th. Despite the PA suggesting flipping the trades I took, I exited to flat on both.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 2nd, I could see price rolling over but couldn't figure out how/where to get involved, ended up watching.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 3rd.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 5th, no trades for the 4th.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 6th.

[Gamera 15]

Consider that this may be a time to work on the ‘subjective’ aspect of stops, instead of ‘stats’. Instead of “dedicate a weekend to this study” on objective optimal stop placement for your system - ie ‘study long (may be) study wrong”... it might be better to ask questions like ‘is there a way for me to utilize (and possibly move) stops DURING trades to preempt / intervene in my “emotion and bad habits” ?’ etc etc

You need to intervene in the reactivity before. .. to get out in front of these things a little bit ie by the time you’re aware of “emotions” it’s too late. 'Manipulating' stops may be a practical, non sycho, way for you to do that. If not, "dedicate a weekend" to finding other ways to intervene in the reactivity would be better time spent than objectively 'statistizing' on stop placements... hth

 

z,

 

I'll try to answer as best I can. The idea was always to move stops if I happened to take a trade that went in one direction or the other, trailing the stops behind each retracement until price got an area where it was likely to do something different and perhaps changing the position depending on the price behaviour.

 

At the end of August I took some time to think about what some of the problems I was having were, one of the biggest was how I react in the opening minutes of a trade. I have an expectation of how price should behave once a trade is triggered, this is something gained from lots of observation. Most trades I took were not behaving as I would expect which puts me under pressure immediately and gets the emotions overly involved in the decision making process, hence the knee jerk reactions and overthinking.

 

I believe the problem behind this was down to my entries, I needed so much confirmation that I was taking the 3rd or 4th trigger which was often at a point where price was likely to chop and backfill putting me under pressure (price is not doing what I expect, what gives) 10 second triggers would move into 1 minute rets, which is normal but not what one expects giving the premise of the trade at hand.

 

Having seen late entries as a problem I took the route of marginal gains and have tried to take the first entries (trying to practice better at this but I find myself a little resistant at times). If the thesis about the trade is correct PA behaves as expected (it goes) and this has taken a lot of the pressure off as I have breathing room to think about things more objectively, I can also employ tighter initial stops which helps. Once the trade is underway its just a case of watching the PA for anything that suggests the run has come to an end.

 

September was a positive month which is something I've not been able to say for a while, whether I can sustain that through this month is something to be seen but all I can say is that taking the earlier entries led to a lot less stress and a more positive outcome.

 

G

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 9th, with price seemingly chopping I shut down soon after trade 1.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 10th.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 11th, I seem to have a near inexhaustible list of excuses/reasons to not take trades when I see them.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 12th.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 13th.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 16th, patience was a little lacking on trade two I think.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and action for the 17th, got tangled in an area where price was likely to chop and the results show.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 18th, I've had concerns for a while that price could go back into a grind similar to the start of the year with lots of back fill and chop during the session, not that this is an example, its just a thought as price pushes higher again.

Edited October 19, 2017 by Gamera

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 19th, big miss prior to trade 1 and a weak exit on 3.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 23rd.

[Gamera 15]

Prep and actions for the 24th, saw the bottom go in but may have over managed both trades.