Leverager Trading Log Before Going Live

[leverager 10]

The basic concept of my Trading Strategy is Triangular

I got this basic concept in somewhere forum , and only for cross pair that prices formed by divided 2 major currency

for Example : EURGBP, GBPAUD ,GBPNZD, EURAUD, EURNZD,AUDNZD,

 

The basic concept, i will take EURGBP as example

 

This strategy is Triangular Arbitrage, is one of Forex trading Strategies in forex utilizing the imbalance value of the three currencies,

 

For Example : GBP / USD, EUR / GBP, and the EUR USD, the formula third this currency is the GBP / USD x EUR / GBP = EUR / USD,

if the condition are GBP / USD x EUR / GBP # EUR / USD,

then the triangular arbitrage opportunities arise.

This strategy practiced manually is difficult, because of the scarcity of opportunities that arise, and need the speed and timing to execute the order, because it is usually run by using softaware.

 

 

Triangular Arbitrage

 

Currency formula (CF):

GBP / USD (GU) x EUR / GBP (EG) = EUR / USD (EU

Description :

GU price multiplied by EG must be equal to the EU

 

The Triangular Arbitrage Formula (TAF):

GU x EG # EU

Description :

Triangular Arbitrage arises if:

GU price multiplied by the price of EG is not the same as the price of the EU at the time

 

Entry Rule:

1. If the EU CF> EU TAF by a margin of at least 12 pips then we open trades: EU buy, sell EG, & sell GU

2. If the EU CF <EU TAF by a margin of at least 12 pips then we open trades: EU sell, buy EG & buy GU

3. We will not open trades if the difference is less than 12 pips

 

Lot used in RTA for each currency:

1. EU = 1 x lot (mini, standard)

Examples 0.10 or 1.0

2. EG = appropriate price at the time GU x lot (mini, standard)

Sample price GU 1.6381 then we open 0:16 or 1.63

3. GU = appropriate price at the time EG x lot (mini, standard)

Examples EG 0.7210 price then we open 0.72 or 7:21

 

Exit Rule there are 2 options:

1. Take Profit with the following calculation: the difference in pips (ex: 12) - total third spread currency (ex: fx version 8 open) = profit (4) x lot (1) = $ 40

2. Exit when price is in conformity with the RMU

 

Sample case :

Prices on the chart, namely: GU 1.6381, EG 0.7210 and 1.1823 EU, dg spread 3.3, dan2 then appeared triangular arbitrage opportunity, because GU x EG # EU.

Value EU RMU is supposed to 1.1811 due to the smaller of the EU RTA 12 pips, then we open trades sell EU, buy EG and buy GU dg minilot each EU 1.0, EG 1.63, (according to the price GU) and GU 0.72 (according to the price EG time )

We will take profit formula pips difference minus the total spread, ie 12-8 = 4 x 1 lot = $ 40

 

but here i wont wait for triangular arbitrage arises , it will take a long long time.

 

i will do the same practices here but with a twist

i will entry blindly and wont wait for any triangular arbitrage arrises

i will only lot formula as mentioned at this post

 

XXX/USD = 1

XXX/YYY = lot is the YYY/USD price

YYY/USD= Lot size is XXX/YYY Price

 

 

and first entry i will try GBPNZD

 

[leverager 10]

Closed with +40

nice result for set and forget entry

[leverager 10]

i am curious

so i decide another tickmill demo and open 2 opposite trade

Buy EG triangular and sell EG triangular

let us see what will happen

 

[leverager 10]

intresting results

maybe something wrong with this arbitrage formulas

 

 

[leverager 10]

one demo acccount in minus

one demo account in profit

must pass this one

 

lol

 

[leverager 10]

as a trader , i already trade currencies for 1-2years and i think i still stuck in this level.

 

a deposit only trader level.

 

off course sometimes i requested withdrawal of my profit, but if i do some calculations , my deposited / and lost money, still bigger than my withdrawal.

 

inspired by my friend who turn $1000 into $12000 in one year with Alpari (may their soul rest in peace) and he told me if you wanna survive in this business, write your own journal, analyze your foult,risk amount that you can afford to lose.

 

so here i am. trying to going live and write serious journal

 

because i familiar with MT4 and can't risk too much money, i decided to trade with Tickmill which is suitable for me.

 

about my trading system.

 

in short i use combination of EMA 12,50,100, 260 ,500 and some price actions

 

will upadate myfxbook tomorrow, and i hope i can succesfully compouding and achieve my 1st $1000

[leverager 10]

Let us made some market review for a moment before opened a trade. W

What happened in this week which is the majority of USD rivals stronger than the USD , which means that the long-term weakening of the USD in sight

 

This is due to weaker US economic data than anticipated.

PMI is below expectations,

ADP which is above forecast, Forecast 195k, actual 205K

The unemployment rate rose 8k

 

the NFP today, market expectations about jobs created and opened : 189k ,

and if the data released under 180k can harm USD fundamentally.

 

With the reluctance of the Fed to raise interest rates, the ECB QE plan in March 2016, and the BOJ is set negative interest rates, today's NFP data is crucial as a guide to where the next market direction next.

 

Technical analysis : , based on Tickmill weekly chart, the USDJPY this week , weakened as much as 500.0 pips.

 

Head and Shoudler has been formed, and if the NFP data this week could make close USDJPY weekly chart with a bearish engulfing pattern, then the USDJPY weakness for the medium-long term was inevitable with the first target at 113.00 area

 

if this picture does not load, use this link : https://charts.mql5.com/10/112/usdjpy-w1-tickmill-ltd.png

 

Recommendation :

 

USDJPY Bearish,

risk in the area of ​​121.75 -122.00

Target: 113.00, 110.00, and 109.00

[leverager 10]

Lets Rock And Roll

 

Sell EU , Reason : Double Top Formation, Seller candlestick pattern and price opened under EMA 12

Got 0.2 spread, great

Entry at 1.12014

SL at 1.12164

 

 

 

Sell GBPUSD Averaging minus mode

Sell 1 at 1.44090

Sell limit at 1.44490

Reason : Support become resistance and Buyer at H1 buyers are not able to maintain their strength, and candle close under EMA 12

 

 

 

 

 

Sell EURAUD

Reason

1. because i have 1 sell eurusd position

2.At M15 price already Break and open new candle under EMA 12, need H1 confirmations

Sell @ 1.59076

SL @ 1.59326

Update Hit SL

 

 

 

 

[leverager 10]

Update :

open 2 trades EURAUD

Open trade 1 : 0.02 lot @ 1.58761 SL @ 1.59161

Open trade 2 : 0.02 lot @ 1.58861 SL @ 1.59561

TP @ 1.57260

Got good spreads with this crosses , around 2.0 pips. its rare to have broker like tickmill with tight spreads on crosess

nice

 

 

 

Reason : Engulfing on EMA 12

 

 

 

 

 

[leverager 10]

Today, Because china celebrating Chineese new year ( happy Lunar new year anyway, i hope you are more prosperous in this fire monkey year)which caused market move in sideways

 

we need to pay attentionm there is some news that should be on the alert

 

 

Buy GU @ 1.44900,reasons, entered an order because long candle in M15 full with buyer

 

Sell Gold @ 1187.90 SL TP @ @ 1191.9 1177.9

 

Reason : Gold break EMA 12

 

I have trading for years and only with Tickmill i can have 10 pips spread for gold.usually another brokers charged 30-70 pips spreads for gold

 

Error | Myfxbook

[leverager 10]

is it me or myfxbook always have errors when i wanna upload my trading history.

Whatever, moved to FXBlue.

FX Blue - Statement for ijak

 

Got margin called and deposited another $25

 

Today Open trade

 

Sell GBPUSD

Sell GBPCHF

Got signals from M5

 

Reason for Sell GU , Fake confirmations candle on M5, and turn the candle into Continuation signals, RSI break neckline

 

Reason For sell GBPCHF

Got RSI break signal with m5 , plus confirmations candle pattern

 

Got around 3-4 pips spread for GBPCHF , and around 1 pips spreads on GBPUSD

 

 

Took a peak on news, and whew, china still on New year holiday,

 

But today , Yellen would have a testimony again , i hope yellen could give us clues about The Feb Policy

 

 

Read on some news sections

 

Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, expects Brexit risk premium will increase as we move toward a referendum to strengthen the pound weakness and increased volatility.

 

Excerpt important [/ B]

 

"Risk Brexit will increasingly dictate the performance of pounds while driving other underlying such expectations BoE policy will only be the event extra. Time referendum is right yet to be decided but it seems likely to be faster after the draft proposal released this week for" a new resolution for the United Kingdom in the European Union " . Draft and they will be discussed in more detail at a special meeting of the European Council on 18 and February 19.

 

Increased uncertainty regarding the upcoming referendum on the European Union and the downside risks to global growth prospects resulted in view of the more cautious BoE's monetary policy. "

 

 

 

From: FXstreet

[leverager 10]

Updated my Journal, it is hard to reach master trader level

but i must learn and enjoy this process

 

still have floating order, Sell EURUSD

 

 

Reason, look at the rectangle. my reason is , Engulfing on MA, plus candle break out EMA 12 at H4, and entered the market and got 0.2 spreads . very nice

 

 

 

 

Closed Buy GBPUSD

 

Entered the market At M5 (and got spreads under 1 pip) because engulfing on MA( look at the rectangle)

 

 

and i got good setup for sell at NZDUSD

 

If NU Closed and stay like this at 12 febuary 2015, 20.00 GMT +7

i will consider to sell NZDUSD

 

[leverager 10]

This Week High Impact News

 

Time using GMT+7

Mon 15 Feb :

21:00 : ECB President Draghi Speaks

 

Tue 16 Feb :

4:45 : NZDRetail Sales q/q

7:30 : AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

9:00 : NZD Inflation Expectations q/q

Tentative : German Constitutional Court Ruling

16:30 :GBP CPI y/y

17:00 : German ZEW Economic Sentiment

20.30 : Cad Manufacturing Sales m/m

Tentative: NZD GDT Price Index

 

Wed 17Feb 2016 :

16.30 : GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y

16.30 : GBP Claimant Count Change

20.30 : USD Building Permits

20.30 : USD PPI m/m

 

Thu 18 Feb 2016

4:45 : NZD PPI Input q/q

7.30 : AUD Employment Change

7.30 : Unemployment Rate

20.30 : USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

20.30 : Unemployment Claims

23.00 : Crude Oil inventories > Spesial , news khusus oil

 

Fri 19Feb 2016

16.30 : GBP Retail Sales m/m

20.30 : CAD Core CPI m/m

20.30 : CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

20.30 : USD CPI m/m

20.30 : Core CPI m/m

 

opened 2 trades, Sell EURAUD and sell EURNZD

Sell EURAUD

Reasons :

1.Engulfing on MA at H1 timeframe

2. RSI H4 formed Hns, even now, RSI h4 already reach RSI support, but i will waiting next RSI support for exit

Traling stop activated at +100.0 pips

 

Sell EURNZD

Reason :

1. Engulfing confirmed by inverted hammer which is hanging on MA Cross

2.RSI H4 Formed HNS dan maybe will try to break the RSI support.

Trailing stop at +1

not bad . got 2.5 pips spreads with Sell EURAUD and

Got 3 pips spreads with EURNZD.

[leverager 10]

busy all days, and just updated my journal after i finished all my business thing

 

opened Sell GBPJPY dan Sell GBPUSD

 

 

My reason sell both pairs are they had big engulfing on MA cross (look at magenta rectangle)

and i am positive , when i post issue about Brexit, it may happen in near future.

 

 

Closed with profit

and after some drawdowns with my account in 8 days, finally i can banking some nice profit into my wallet

now i am Breakeven and in profit

 

 

Requested $45 WD +$45 at 20.30 GMT+7

 

 

Recieved 20.42 in same day.

 

my target : to WD $1000 from $50

is it possible?dunno, let us see, how long i can maintain my trading account. and consistantly banking some profits into my wallet

[leverager 10]

i starts my day with opened trades for several pairs

 

 

 

 

Sell USDCHF @ 0.98823 SL @ 0.99073 TP @0.98190

Sell Stop USDCHF @ 0.98573 SL @ 0.98823 TP @ 0.98190

Sell AUDCAD @ 0.98449 SL @ 0.98849 TP @ 0.97449

Sell stop AUDCAD @ 0.98049 SL @ 0.98449 TP @ 0.97449

Sell EURAUD @ 1.57448 SL @ 1.57848 TP @ 1.54314

Sell stop EURAUD @ 1.56813 SL @ 1.57448 TP @ 1.54314

 

Reason :

 

Sell USDCHF

1. I saw Tower pattern ,

2.confirmed by engulfing at right leg

3.left leg already formed 2 waves

 

 

 

My reason why i opened Sell AUDCAD is simple , Because ad Daily Timeframe , my EMA will cross, and engulfing it self alreay formed. i just need today confirmation

 

For EUAUD , i use it as hedge instrument against USDCHF and AUDCAD

not bad. got good spreads when i entered this 3 trades

[leverager 10]

My fokus today is CADJPY, to find out the best price to buy CADJPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My reason why i decide to buy CADJPY

1. W pattern

2.RSI Divergence

 

 

 

 

And if we compare USDCAD and CADJPY , why i buy CADJPY because few days ago, USDCAD had strong bearish trend ,

 

 

 

and tonight we have crude oil inventories news and as far as i know , OIL and CAD have strong correlation

[leverager 10]

Yesterday i made +$55 profit and request for Withdrawal

 

,

 

Request @ 18:12

 

 

Processed @ 21:12 GMT+7

 

 

 

Buy CADJPY

Chart CADJPY

 

Because CADJPY spreads are low, i can trade this pair

Reason buy CADJPY : Strong Support area

 

got 1 pip spreads

 

before GBP News, i tried to catch the trend

 

[leverager 10]

Got Drawdown in my ECN Pro Account

but no problem. OverAll i am still in profit T_T

 

[spoiler=EURJPY]

 

 

 

Sell EURJPY

Reason : Price / buyer, are not too dominant and can't maintain their power above EMA 12

 

SL Scalping

TP longterm

[leverager 10]

Still hold my Sell EURJPY, move EURJPY stoploss into trailing stop mode

Sell EURGBP , because at M5 , candle broke out the EMA 12,and met major resistance. put 10.0 pips stoploss,

 

got good spreads on EURGBP, 0.6-0.7 pips for EURGBP , not bad for cross pair

 

 

 

 

 

 

today we have EURO Zone news, perhaps this news could help my trade

[leverager 10]

Finally i got Margin Call

Well redeposit my account and looking for signals with another trading instrument provided by my Broker,and i decided to trade the indices

After tried their demo to find out how much margin used for any indices

i decided to trade the US500 index (SPX500 index)

 

Reason :

1.M pattern

2.Engulfing

3.Their spreads looks lower than another index (40 pips, i think its like 4 pips in forex)

 

Sell 1 @ 1917.20

sell 2 @1906.20

Trailing Stop loss @ 1911.20

My worst scenario : i think am only reach BEP

 

 

 

 

 

[leverager 10]

I hope NZDUSD can break the upper triangle formed in daily timeframe.

 

opened NZDUSD trades, got tight spreads, with tight pair movement

-_-

 

 

[leverager 10]

today I have a lot of work to do and only now I have time to update my journal

And today , we only have one important USD news

 

today i do some multiple entries

 

 

 

Buy HK50 (Hanseng )

Reasojn : engulfing on m15

 

 

 

 

 

Indices trading have different sensation, although the spreads are small, but we can quickly experience a plus or minus in one single moves

Closed profit +40$

 

and after that i bought GBPUSD and sold EURGBP

 

 

Got tight spread , and closed by my trailing stop

 

And i now i try another trading instruments provide by Tickmill, which is JPY225 (Nikkei)and EURJPY

Reason : engulfing on MA

 

 

 

 

[leverager 10]

Sell EURGBP

god, I hate this Inverted Cup and handle Pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Example of Cup and handle Pattern in WTI/CL

 

 

 

looking this WTI, makes me wanna open a trade, because my broker uses fixed 1 lot , and 1 lot = 0.01$ / pips which means i trade WTI with cent account

 

 

[leverager 10]

Try To buy NZDCHF

 

Finaly i am back trading forex, because indices trading is very painful.

For smallest lot in my broker, smallest used margin is in JP225 , it is around $14-$15. not to mention, index have very wild movement.

need bigger balance sigh

and looks like they applied 1:100 leverage in all indices instrument

 

 

Reason, hammer on MA with counter sell if it become invalid

 

 

[leverager 10]

Sell GBPCHF

very sexy

reason : RSI on 60 area, RSI Abnormal, and still in channel area

 

 

 

 

 

i hope it is valid

moga2 valid

got good spreads , 2.0 pips for GBPCHF