Fibonacci Confluence on Time

[willd 10]

I have seen several posts on possible weakness at these levels. Here is one more thought to consider. I ran a quick Fibonaaci time extension on the SPY. Today May 16, 2007 is showing up as a key time zone for a measurement of high to high, low to low and low to high swing points. June 6 and 7 are also key time dates.

 

Price has continued to rise into this time frame, therefore, the proability of a reversal occurring within the next 2 days is good.

 

Nov 28, Dec 14, Feb 22 and Mar 14 are the dates I used for the time extensions.

[email 10]

Hi Willd,

 

What method are you using to project these time extentions.

 

Many Regards,

email

[torero 10]

There is no book that I'm aware or any expert that can explore this topic in details. Wonder if it works.

[BlowFish 10]

I think Fischer goes into time projections but not in any great detail. Have to say his book never really 'clicked' for me but it is fairly comprehensive from the point of view of topics covered.

 

I wrote some tradestation code a while ago to find potential turnng points. Basically I'd load up a a whole bunch of intraday bars and record all the swing hi swing low points. I'd then project all the major fibs in time and have confluences marked as a histogram based on the 'stregth' of confluence from memory I didnt bother unless there where 3 or more.

 

While it was a fun project it didn't look good enough to trade. Just seemed to indicate too many turns that didn't materialise, but to be honest I didnt go much further trying to improve it.

 

Cheers,

Nick

[Guest cooter]

If you're into fib confluences, Carolyn Boroden seems to be an proficient practitioner of this area of technical analysis.

 

Liquid Web Project Streamer - cb1618 - may212007 is a link to one of here training videos recaps....

[BlowFish 10]

Another guy I like for confluence of levels (rather than time) Is Jim Kane. I got all his stuff and while I don't trade fib it is quality material (caveat - imo).

[waveslider 10]

In agreement with blowfish, I think that if the fib timing works, it is an art to do. I have done some testing also and the problem is that there are so many inverses in the market.

So selecting the proper points is the key, and they are rarely the peaks/troughs.

Timing always will have this issue.

It's never dependable as a primary entry or exit mechanism, so probably not worth bothing too much with.

My opinion is its better to spend time on money management techniques - that's what really affects your account!

[rolange 10]

In agreement with blowfish, I think that if the fib timing works, it is an art to do. I have done some testing also and the problem is that there are so many inverses in the market.

So selecting the proper points is the key, and they are rarely the peaks/troughs.

Timing always will have this issue.

It's never dependable as a primary entry or exit mechanism, so probably not worth bothing too much with.

My opinion is its better to spend time on money management techniques - that's what really affects your account!

 

There is a certain alchemy involved otherwise everyone would be doing it. I found this recently and would suggest there is a great method amongst the seeming madness of fib.

 

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips30.htm

If it works for Larry.....

[torero 10]

Interesting read, thanks, rolange!

[BlowFish 10]

So many tools focus on price it is always of great interest to come across something that is orientated towards time.

 

I know a couple of Gann gurus who maintain finding inflection points in time is much easier than finding inflection points in price.

[epiktetos 10]

There is no book that I'm aware or any expert that can explore this topic in details. Wonder if it works.

 

It is treated fairly comprehensively in Miner's book "Dynamic Trading".

[waveslider 10]

People are really fascinated with timing the markets, very few have success. I have spent many hours looking at timing methods, I submit here that if you want to do the same, don't expect to find a solid method that will make you lots of money, do it for your own fascination.

I have found a few methods that do work consistently.

 

Here is some guidance:

 

There are so many waves in a market (imagine a choppy ocean) that the interference causes timing to become skewed.

 

However - there is a good time to use timing methods! This is when a "new" impulse is introduced to the market. So an example would be when the market is gone through a period of low volatility and suddenly explodes.

 

A simple way to time a move like this is by just using your fib time tool and mark the "a" to "b" leg of the wave, then use a 100% extension of this leg.

If "c" is not formed before this 100% mark, then the "a" to "b" move is invalid and will likely resume the previous trend.

 

This a simple example. There are much more accurate methods, and the ones I know of involve using that primary impulse wave as a measuring gauge for where and when the next move will develop.

 

Anyone who tells you they can know when each move will begin and end is definitely full of it. But in specific instances where a new, powerful wave over-rides all the other chop in the market, this is where you should pay attention.

 

Hopefully this can point some people in the right direction and save some time for the grail searchers looking to time every move....

[waveslider 10]

Oh yeah, you can't use tick or volume charts for timing, it has to be linear..

[BlowFish 10]

Good tips. I would add that you can get two upwaves back to back or an upwave and a sideways wave. Some would call those inversions I guess.

 

Elliot never made sense to me untill I broke the building block into smaller chunks. His 1,2,3,4,5 is actuall two abcd's in the same direction. Even then its too complex.

 

The more esoteric Gann stuff (well stuff that his followers attribute to him) is more focused on time than price also.

 

Cheers.

[rolange 10]

Good tips. I would add that you can get two upwaves back to back or an upwave and a sideways wave. Some would call those inversions I guess.

 

Elliot never made sense to me untill I broke the building block into smaller chunks. His 1,2,3,4,5 is actuall two abcd's in the same direction. Even then its too complex.

 

The more esoteric Gann stuff (well stuff that his followers attribute to him) is more focused on time than price also.

 

Cheers.

 

Howard at ensign offers some great insights.

 

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips13.htm#Time

 

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips18.htm#Importance

 

This page is an essential read for Grail seekers

 

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips42.htm#In

[Sparrow 10]

Sandy Jadeja timed the recent drop in the market. I listened to his interview before it actually happened.

He predicted when, at which value it would take a dive and even the drop.

As far as i know he used fibonacci.

[neustaju 10]

There is another method of fibonacci time analyses (other than the time extension)that is little talked about. The other method used is *count how many minutes OR days OR months it takes for an entire price move to complete. Then divide by the time taken for the next move. Example *Using monthly chart of INTC= count the months down from the peak (roughly $75.00) occuring between 00-01. Counting 25 months all the way down to the bottom occuring end of 2002. Then price rallies up to $35 (disclude this "B"). At this point ask yourself, 25 and which number makes a fibonacci number? from the $35 peak count down 40 months and notice the rally that occurs. A (25) / C (40) = *1.6*. Major and minor trend changes occur under parameters such as this.

[neustaju 10]

For short term traders. Turn to a 10 min chart of AMD look to 09/04. A selloff begins to occur the last 30 minutes of the day. counting down from the candle that opened 13.33 and closed 13.25. We have 30 minutes of decline on 09/04 then 50 more minutes of decline on 09/05 ending ($12.75) Total decline = 80 minutes. Then price rallies for 20 min up to $12.97. Count 80 minutes over from the peak occuring 12.97. After 80 min price rallies for 80 min then changes direction again. I was long for this rally of 0.13 but exited after it failed to break through length of 61.8% previous rally. The most interesting part about this occured when watching the tape at this time 80 min interval. Huge lot buy orders 50k plus where streaming and they werent using market orders, only dark/hidden books. Using the fib time tool does not allow you to skip part of a wave (b for example) thus creating a "time rate of error".:helloooo:

[Sparrow 10]

I'd be cautious with miner's stuff, he claims to be a first place winner of the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading however Robbins Trading Comp. hasn't got him even listed.

 

It doesn't mean that his stuff doesn't work, but i am not putting my money on the line when i doubt someone's credibilty.

[timokrates 10]

With the Dynamic Trader software you are able to create a lot of price and time projections. The same principle Miner teaches to find fib cluster areas could also be used to create fib time clusters.

 

I followed his general approach for a time. The software is very helpful if you believe that Elliott and fibs in general can be helpful for your trading. I like Miners way to explain and teach it, but in general I have to say that I moved away from all this, specially this stuborn focus on Elliott wave principle.