WASDE report

[wsam29 10]

For you new traders to the grain market, be aware of when those reports come out. They are market moving reports from time to time.

 

Now that its growing season, expect lots of volatility from planting till harvest for corn and beans, which is about september to november.

 

Wheat has two growing seasons, winter and spring and theres like 3 different types of wheat traded in the US and 1 in Canada (WCE).

 

CBOT

KCBT

MGE

[Guest cooter]

Yep, but typically those reports come out before the market opens for RTH (9:15am CT).

 

Here's a helpful link to bookmark for the USDA Crop Reports:

 

United States Department of Agriculture - Agency Reports

 

And for the WASDE reports go to: WASDE

 

Plus for all things Commodity-related from the USDA:

 

Commodity Forecasts

 

Enjoy!

[notouch 10]

I definitely need to learn more about the fundamental aspects of ag trading. Can anyone recommend a book that looks at things like seasonal trends, weather, major players and the impact of the various reports?

[Guest cooter]

Personally, I haven't a clue - and I don't really care to, either.

 

Since the reports come out when the market is closed, if you're not flat the night before, you've really not been paying attention then

 

But if you're interested in daytrading the Ags, here's a link to a CBOT Seminar on 5/17/07 regarding some of John Carter of TradeTheMarkets' setups:

 

CBOT - High Probability Setups in the Electronic Grains Futures Markets

 

Happy Trading!

[notouch 10]

I know John Carter's set ups and don't care much for them but thanks anyway. Even when I'm not trading directly off of fundamentals I like to at least understand them. I couldn't imagine trading stock index futures, currencies or bonds without understanding the significance of employment or inflation data for example. It seems to me to be trading with one eye closed.

[Guest cooter]

Understood. Some folks think that the fundamentals are already "baked" into the price, and its subsequent price action. Do you?

[notouch 10]

I think it takes a while for fundamental data to be priced in. The effect of surprise economic data can last for hours or days after it's released so I'm sure the same is true of a surprise crop report or a bad hurricane.

[wsam29 10]

The grains are "24 hours" now and have been for awhile.

Its not so much about understanding the report but rather knowing that one is due and either be flat and trade (price action) after its released.

 

From what I understand, its all about the carry over amount from the previous season, of whats left in the world. That is when the market panics if the current crop has issues.

 

I bought a book from Grandmill (I think that's the authors name) and it was his "system" on "investing" in the grains based on the carry over number, but you need to haev long term stats and there are some services out there that keep track of the data for you, you just need to come up with the fee for it.

 

Not to mention the COT (Commitment of Traders) numbers has an affect as well. In other word open interest.

 

If you understand open interest and the meaning behind the numbers, that's all you really need to know because there are other traders who know more about the fundamentals about each crop, ie Cargill, Bunge, etc.

 

But it is nice to know how the crop grows, maybe having a farmer friend is not so bad after all that deals with the crops.

 

Different train of thinking but if you want to make the big money in grains or any market, it those daily trends that generate the big money, not scalping ticks here and there. Learning how to sit in a winning trade is one of the toughest thing one can master in trading if you ask me.

 

Just ask yourself how many trades you've closed out "early" because you could not sit for maximum gain. I know I've sat through some maximum loses in the past.

[The Bear 10]

Guys forget the cow dung & hay...did you see oil today? (re: cooter)

[Guest cooter]

Oh, heck yeah! Like it's on Viagra or something Very nice, indeed....

[torero 10]

I think there are several books on Amazon specifically talk about COT for commodities. Not sure if they're worth the money. Anyone read this? Any feedback?