Knowing the Direction of the Market

[thekid 10]

Is it possible to know the direction of any given market?

[Dahan 10]

It's possible to follow the main market trend, there are many ways to get information about market change, such as important politic and economic event, and new policy etc.

[jpennybags 11]

Trust your thoughts...

 

Understand that it's more of a "feeling" than a "knowing". There is no "knowing" in this business... there is only opportunity and an understanding of the sentiment and actions of participants that leads to movement (up or down).

 

It's a big question dude... there are no simple answers. Trust what you see...

[zdo 20]

kid,

 

It is possible to know the past directions of any given market by observation. Further, we can impute/assign symbolic descriptions to past direction with terms like “trend”, etc. These are semantic tricks we can play on ourselves for comfort… tricks that unfortunately end up ruling/ruining many traders.

 

It is NOT possible to know the future direction “of any given market”... The biology of human life on earth is a sufficiently ‘quantum’ biology to create in markets what is in effect a quantum superposition whose direction cannot be known beforehand.

One way of looking at it is: The universe of humans have an unconscious estimation of the where relative ‘value’ should be/go. Only a tiny sample of them express their unconscious estimation with actual participation in ”any given market”. So, the active participants can appear to be ‘powerful’ ‘influential’ ‘controlling’… and / or ‘predictable’. But they aren’t. They always remain extremely mutable and well within the unknowable ‘fields of influence’ of the universal ‘valuation’. …

In another way of looking at it: The dominant ‘narrative’ can collapse at any moment… etc. etc.

Another way of looking at it: :rofl:… http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-09/i%E2%80%99m-first-say-i-can%E2%80%99t-do-it-energy-junk-bond-implosion-just-claimed-its-first-victim ... the market is full of followers... few leaders with staying power...

 

Future prices of a market are not ‘knowable’. You can, however, assign probabilities to the direction of ‘next’ transactions via a number of methods and techniques. More importantly, you can also learn to recognize market conditions where such assignment of probabilities has better odds of being successful. Such work never really gets easier. But you can get better at it.

 

A typical error is mentally conflating what in reality can only be an assignment of probability with a self delusional ‘knowing’ what the future direction “of any given market” will be. ...This has a lot to do with the habitual, ‘normal’ states one brings to trading from past non trading experiences ... involves the threshold of certainty one consistently needs before repeatedly taking live positions with real risks and exposures , etc, etc. Variations in ... attachments(and lack thereof), fears (and lack thereof), etc., etc.

The ‘voice of trading’ calls breaking this conflation “probability thinking”. Mark Douglas addressed it directly in his books and presentations. Rande Howell discusses it in some depth in his threads and posts on this site... and would likely be open to further discussion. Also see Kahneman's book, …fast slow…

 

If your question was meant something more like

“what techniques can show know the future direction of any given market?” The only way you can go wrong with any of them - Elliott-like, Gann-like, Wyckoff-like, etc etc... cycle duration projections, astro, ...etc etc etc, - is to force yourself into methods that are incompatible with your own true nature. But I like the original, but admittedly less practical, answer much better ... ie ...

Much of technical analysis resorts to clever use of wet ware geometry (eyeball regressions at the cost of ever ‘solving’ the larger system - which is yourself.)

Much of ‘fundamental’ analysis resorts to clever use of wet ware algebra ( valuations at the cost of ever ‘solving’ the larger system - which is yourself.)

Much of ‘sentiment’/narrative analysis resorts to clever use of wet ware reflexivity (projections at the cost of ever ‘solving’ the larger system - which is yourself.)

 

"'tis an ill wind that blows no minds". - Syadasti

[spareappeal 10]

i dont think that it is possible to know the direction of market .. you can only guess that in which way it will go according to the trend and its history ..

[divyanshisharma 2]

Stock prices change everyday by market forces. ... If more people want to buy astock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.