Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

[fourtiwinks 10]

0908: Here is my PM chart...

 

0909: Since there are more pivots above than below current price, I assume that NQ will test PDLs after the Open.

 

0919: The mid of the range seems to be about halfway between PDC and PDL. Curious to observe if there is any significance to it.. (No signifcance whatsoever..)

 

0940: Wow, NQ is slicing thru the past PDLs like they were made of butter..

 

0949: Is a hinge forming?

 

0952: Looks like the BD from the hinge is TDTDB. A range could be forming instead..

 

0958: Let's see if NQ will BO above the range to 50% of current DR..

 

1039: Good call, Db.. Not sure what you meant by @96, but if you entered at 1013 bar, that's very impressive!

 

1045: Time to leave. Adios to Db and all..

Edited March 4, 2015 by fourtiwinks

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. Another beautiful day in South Florida. Here's my daily prep.

 

Long Term Analysis: Weekly, and daily uptrend is still intact. It is currently bogged down at the upper trend channel line. But as long as, it stays within the range, or above, we will stay bullish. Yesterday was a weak Bear trend bar, with buyers coming in at the bottom of the range.

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: The overnight, and pre market has been bearish. I would stay bearish, as long as price stays below yesterday's mean. However, I may re-assess, once price hits, or exceeds the low of 03/03, and/or 02/26.

 

 

 

Plan of Action for the day: The primary focus chart will be 30 minute chart. Re-assess, once price reaches, or breaches the lows of 3/3, and 2/26. I will remain bearish, as long as we're below yesterday's mean.

 

 

11:00am: As expected, price sliced through PM low, like butter, and proceeded to breach the lows from yesterday, and 02/26. As per AMT, we're expecting the price to revert back to the mean. Bar 3 gave a solid indication of reverting back into the range. As long as we're staying above 33, which is our RTH mean, we will shoot for retest of today's high.

 

 

11:33am: Today's high has been tested, and rejected for the first time. But, price is like a woman, and may need a couple of more tries, before revealing her true intentions.

 

 

 

01:00pm: Price has stalled around yesterday's mean 52. However, Bars 3 thru 7 have created a series of higher highs, and higher lows. If buyers still show interest, price may retest pre market high of 56.

 

 

 

02:35pm: The buyers were unable to, or not interested in buying above yesterday's mean of 52. The market attempted 3 pushes, and failed to break out. Price retraced all the way back to the mean of today's RTH (regular trading hours), and bounced back up.

 

 

 

Here's a 5 minute chart on what a 3 pushes look like.

 

 

 

04:10pm: As usual, with the closing of the last 30 minute bar, the trading day is over. The price action from 2:30 to 4 pm has been less than exciting, as buyers and sellers are locked in a small range between pre market low, and pre market mean. The sellers are holding the pre market line solidly, and the buyers are not convinced enough to go higher. It should resolve itself out overnight session into tomorrow, and judging from the pattern recognition, it is going up to retest the upper range.

 

 

 

Summary: Today was another great day for AMT followers. Price retested the lows, and bounced back to retest the day high, and the mean of yesterday's range. Only one thing stood out in my mind today; The strong Bull trend bar at Bar 11. I would normally be very bullish for this kind of bar, but unfortunately, the "context" was wrong. Price has already failed 3 pushes from that level, and for price to come back up all the way down from 36.50 (Bar 10) to breakout to the top is highly unlikely. As a result, price went into a hinge (triangle, as Al Brooks would put it).

 

Schaefer

Edited March 4, 2015 by Schaefer

[lajax 10]

Hi.

 

PM levels

 

 

Today I coudnt see the market live, but the observations for today are in ET

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/price-action-nq.289300/page-8#post-4094511

Edited March 4, 2015 by lajax

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

 

 

1034: HL and LH. Stop.

 

1050: From 50+ people to 3. Perhaps we ought to be posting girlie pictures.

 

1204: Well, I seem to have nailed 54.

 

Edited March 5, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[boru 10]

price is flirting with MP and OVH

10:00 the only good entry I saw today at the 50% lots of small tight ranges , looks like an uptrend on the 60 tho, good trading to all

Edited March 5, 2015 by boru

[Wolfhound 10]

09:10 Attached the pre-market chart. We have moved above the previous day's high and retraced, but have stayed above it for now. I have included previous day's highs for my own reference. These may hold no importance if the market reaches them.

 

09:41 At the moment we have opened and rejected a pre-open high and gone down through the previous day's high. Back within the opening range, and still no direction decided.

 

09:44 Currently in a hinge.

 

0951 We got a double bottom at 49 and now we have travelled up quickly to the overnight high.

 

10:02 We didn't get past the overnight high and now we are back to the opening price again. We have a retracement also.

 

10:09 The turning point at 10:02 was at 50% of the rise. On the 5 Min chart this looks like a simple retracement entry. Difficult to say the direction at that point from the 1 Min chart.

 

10:22 We made it to last Thursday's high before turning down again. Broke our demand line and retraced.

 

10:33 Higher low, and lower high.

 

10:49 We have stayed above the overnight high, but most of the the movement today was from the double bottom at 49.

 

10:52 Are we double topping now?

 

11:00 Retracement after breaking through the overnight high.

 

11:07 Completed the move to the PDH, and quickly onwards to the opening lows.

 

11:11 Broke the opening lows and retraced from below. Breaking downwards again. ON Low at 40.

 

11:18 Didn't make the overnight low. Made a higher low and a rise back to the opening lows instead.

 

11:26 Through the opening lows at 49, next is the PDH at 52

 

11:33 Okay, we are at the PDH. I'm going to buy some food. I'll be back later to see if we hit the PDL, or just settle down for the afternoon.

 

 

Added the chart for the morning's action

Edited March 6, 2015 by Wolfhound

[damnpenguins 10]

I'd love to know who these 36 people are

 

I am Spartacus Well one of them at any rate.

 

Focused more on studying the original course atm, just wrote up a progress post on ET. Hope to be posting here soon again with my Pre Market levels etc.

 

I hope you're studying the original (what's posted here).

 

Yes.

 

No "jumping the creek" or whatever Evans / SMI call it....

Edited March 6, 2015 by damnpenguins

[Ganaje 10]

Tuesday and Wednesday prices went down from the upper to the lower end of the 60M channel. Yesterday price went back to the median and is now sitting there.

 

 

 

 

Yesterday afternoon a range formed with the high being a new top. Today we opened in the same range and at the open immediately a test of that top.

At the moment price is trying to break out to the up side.

 

 

 

 

Price did breakout and did form a new TR and now again a breakout.

Seems there is always a retest of the high of the TR after a breakout up before going higher.

On the other hand price did fall out the TR, but after a retest did not go down again but back into the TR.

These nuances are key a think.

 

 

 

 

 

Bit messy with the ADP report. After a spike price went back into the TR, but not for long.

Now it is still trading above the TR.

 

 

Edited March 6, 2015 by Ganaje

[Ganaje 10]

Twice...............

Edited March 6, 2015 by Ganaje

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

 

 

Gringo pointed out this hinge, which gives us more or less the same mean:

 

Edited March 6, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[boru 10]

price still trading around the mean

[Wolfhound 10]

09:06 Added the 10 Min chart with levels for this morning. The Non-farm payrolls have messed up the nice clean overnight range as usual. On days like these where we have an open before the open, it really expands the overnight high/low to reach closer to the previous day's high/low. We will see which levels are important after the open.

 

09:38 Opened with a series of overlapping bars, and now down to the overnight low.

 

09:46 We had a higher low, but can we make a higher high?

 

09:50 There is a downward trend line from 8:33 on the 1 Min, and we don't seem to be able to break it.

 

09:53 Break through of overnight low, and retracement above the PDL. I used to go short at these points, and feel sorry afterwards.

 

09:56 Well, we just shot up from the lows. I guess there is some news in one of the stocks.

 

10:00 Retracement with breakout. I don't like these retracements after 20 point jumps. How much power has gone from the move by then?

 

10:15 A range around the overnight midpoint

 

10:39 I was smelling a break upwards just there, but no, it didn't happen. Still in the range.

 

10:58 Out of the range and at the overnight lows again. We may finally get a direction.

 

11:06 Reached the PD Low fairly quickly there. Will it hold?

 

11:09 Wednesday's low is at 19.

 

11:30 We got there. What next? I seem to have marked an old range mid at 12, and then there is 400 of course.

 

11:34 I need to go for now. I'll update later with my review of the day and week.

Edited March 6, 2015 by Wolfhound

[fourtiwinks 10]

0912: My PM chart...

 

1015: Yup, point taken, Db. I failed to take note of price in the context of PD range.. was too focused on ON range and making wrong assumptions based on it.

Edited March 6, 2015 by fourtiwinks

[lajax 10]

I got some issues with my connection but here is my PM levels

 

 

 

 

0930: At the open the sellers try to take the price out of the hinge, however despite the fact the RET is triggered the price rebounds to the MP of the hinge

 

0938: The sellers make a new LL, waiting to see what happen next

 

0940: there is no follow through and the price is retracing

 

0945:

 

 

0945: Hinge

 

0949: price BO from the hinge and is approaching to the PL

 

0950: new LL RET needed in order to confirm the sellers willingness

 

0951: Note: close to the PDL 32,75

 

0953: the sellers found R at 34, waiting for the RET

 

0954: The price reversed almost all the previous down movement and a HH is done (V reversal)

 

0955: The price breaks above today high

 

0956: Note: at this point is at the PA is in the middle of the ON activity and the middle of the PD

 

 

0959: RET triggered

 

1000: RET confirmed

 

1002: The price reverses the up movement and a LL is done.... V reversal??

 

1006: A LH is done (RET triggered)

 

1007: RET discarded, and the price goes up

 

1010: HH is done

 

1017: DL is broken waiting for the RET

 

1018: RET triggered and discarded - Range is defined

 

 

1040: Hinge within the TR

 

1056: After a FBO to the upside the price falls

 

1108: the price breaks the PDL

 

Note: waiting to see what happens at this zone

 

1122: next level 19

 

1131: the price goes below the 19, these are the zones where the attention must be (thanks Db for your words, sometimes my focus is at the trees not at the forest.)

 

1143: the downward trend is consolidating

 

1153: HH

 

1158: HL --- Hinge

 

1205: Uptrend is going on

Edited March 6, 2015 by lajax

[DbPhoenix 42]

There's not much point in doing these context charts before the open if they're going to be ignored as soon as the bell rings.

 

There should be no mystery about 50. Nor should there be any mystery about the bounce off the LL of the range.

 

Nor should there be any diagonal lines.

 

Nor talk of bias.

 

Make the most of these postings.

 

DO NOT TRADE THE SLA IN A RANGE!!

 

If you have not yet read Appendix F, do so.

 

FOCUS!

 

CONCENTRATE!

 

If you had taken the reversal at the LL of the range as prescribed, you'd be way past your entry point and sitting and doing nothing.

Edited March 6, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[40draws 10]

There's not much point in doing these context charts before the open if they're going to be ignored as soon as the bell rings.

 

There should be no mystery about 50. Nor should there be any mystery about the bounce off the LL of the range.

 

Nor should there be any diagonal lines.

 

Nor talk of bias.

 

Make the most of these postings.

 

DO NOT TRADE THE SLA IN A RANGE!!

 

If you have not yet read Appendix F, do so.

 

FOCUS!

 

CONCENTRATE!

 

If you had taken the reversal at the LL of the range as prescribed, you'd be way past your entry point and sitting and doing nothing.

 

I think it would be a good idea for everyone to print out today's NQ chart and then hand write this post DbPhoenix's on the printout, and then tape to the wall next to your screen, or laminate it and paste it to the top of your desk.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I think it would be a good idea for everyone to print out today's NQ chart and then hand write this post DbPhoenix's on the printout, and then tape to the wall next to your screen, or laminate it and paste it to the top of your desk.

 

While I don't like being abrupt (I'll save that for ET), there is zero point in doing all this prep and posting all these charts before the open if you're going to toss all of that out the window when the bell rings and ignore your own work.

 

You should know before the open, after having done all these charts, EXACTLY what you're going to do when the market opens. News may move it before the open. Stocks may move it after. Doesn't matter. If you don't know where you're going to go long and where you're going to go short and how much room you're going to give the trade BEFORE THE OPEN, then you are not prepared and you shouldn't even be taking notes. Focusing on the wrong thing will only set you back further than if you had done nothing at all.

----------------------------------------

 

Will likely exit at 20 and assess the situation from there.

 

Next up is 00. After that is 96, but 00 will likely present a problem.

Edited March 6, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

While I don't like being abrupt (I'll save that for ET), there is zero point in doing all this prep and posting all these charts before the open if you're going to toss all of that out the window when the bell rings and ignore your own work.

 

You should know before the open, after having done all these charts, EXACTLY what you're going to do when the market opens. News may move it before the open. Stocks may move it after. Doesn't matter. If you don't know where you're going to go long and where you're going to go short and how much room you're going to give the trade BEFORE THE OPEN, then you are not prepared and you shouldn't even be taking notes. Focusing on the wrong thing will only set you back further than if you had done nothing at all.

----------------------------------------

 

Will likely exit at 20 and assess the situation from there.

 

Next up is 00. After that is 96, but 00 will likely present a problem.

 

I realize everybody's gone, but, just for the record, there's a range from early February that's coming up. Below that, there's a lot of air.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I realize everybody's gone, but, just for the record, there's a range from early February that's coming up. Below that, there's a lot of air.

 

And we bounce off the range I mention above. 44pts total from the LL of the range charted before the open (34-64).

[DbPhoenix 42]

[DbPhoenix 42]

The following are the chief posts I've made this week, those having to do with "real time", or at least message board real time. Those who are interested in how rollovers are traded in real time may find them interesting, particularly as they are somewhat sloppier than hindsight insight.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post196920

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post196949

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post196966

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post196982

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post197010

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post197026

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a-2.html#post197042

 

I don't know how much longer I'm going to do this, but, for the time being, I'm going to try to post only once during the day. This will begin with the prep, then whatever comments I have time to make, which I generally don't since the trading is more important to me, and an end-of-session chart, which might be as early as 1100, that plots the various things one should have anticipated or at least been noticing in real time.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I was going to post this tomorrow evening as I set up next week's thread, but it is the beginning of the weekend and some might want to move on to the next level. So . . .

 

If one really wants to trade rather than just have something to occupy his time during the day and if he really wants to profit from it rather than just fuck around, then he's going to have to do a whole lot more than provide commentary. Yes, observation is necessary even with the SLA/AMT since, as I point out in Appendix F, one must still specify exactly what constitutes a "break" along with what to do about it, what constitutes a "breakout" along with the tactics for trading it, what constitutes a "retracement" along with the tactics for trading it, and so forth. However, this sort of observation needn't take more than a few days of replay in order to determine just where one's entry triggers ought to be and how much leeway the trade should be allowed before the trader exits.

 

Once that's determined, it's time to get down to business. That means doing the prep. Every day. Beginning with at least the daily chart (and the weekly chart on Monday for the coming week) and progressing through the 5-hour if one likes that, the hourly, the 15m, and the 5m, the last most likely being posted just before the open.

 

After these charts are posted along with those ranges and trends that are of most interest, the trader must state clearly exactly what he plans to do with all this information once the session begins. At minimum, where is he going to go long? Why? Where is he going to short? Why? What will be his entry trigger? What will he look for to determine whether to stay in the trade or exit? And all of this applies to each trading opportunity that he sees as a result of having annotated these charts. Before the open. Whether or not he then provides commentary on price movement and/or his trading during the session is entirely up to him.

 

At the end of his session, there must be a trade review, or at least a chart review if no trades were made. How does what happened compare to what was expected to happen? What mistakes were made that must be avoided in future and what will the trader to do accomplish that (see, again, Appendix F).

 

In summary, (1) prep, (2) trade, (3) review. Posting a chart with "this is what I'll be looking at" is not enough.

 

Even those who are just observing and not trading must do this. Observation without purpose is little more than passing the time. If one has been observing for more than a few days, he ought at least venture into hypothesizing about what price is most likely to do where. Otherwise it can go on for months, and life is short.

 

Reread the pdf, paying particular attention to Appendices E and F and the Afterword.

 

Study Section 7 of W's course.

 

And that's it.

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

 

0700: Traders will note that the 15m looks like price is on a glide path. I'll wait another hour or so before posting the chart.

 

This will be very likely not be a pleasant day.

 

0755: Ah HA! Not such a smooth landing after all.

 

0822: Looks like it's going to be 4397 to 4410.

 

0830: The challenge here is going to be that little range that's underneath price. There are two trades here: a reversal of the UL of the range, which is the highest blue line I've drawn, or a break down thru that UL. Until one or the other occurs, there's no trade. So relax and observe.

 

The challenge is that range. You have to decide whether you're going to short a break thru the UL, the next lower limit (the second blue line), or the LL (the third and lowest blue line). If you try to short the first, you will likely encounter a great deal of chop. Decide NOW how you're going to handle that. If you wait until the range is completely cleared, chop will not likely be an issue. However, if price simply plunges through that range, which is not all that wide, what are you going to do then? Decide NOW.

 

Every action that you might take this morning can be anticipated and planned for. The more thoroughly prepared you are, the more likely you are to profit. And if fear makes an appearance, just stop. If you're in, get out.

 

All this assumes, of course, that none of this will change prior to the opening bell. However, these are futures. You can enter any time you please.

 

(I realize there are only two people here, but I have time for this now; I may not later)

 

0905: Now 4397 to 4313, which is the swing high just before Friday's close. And there's always the possibility that price can break out UP. Which will be a tough row to hoe, but rules are rules.

 

0926: I hope everyone took my end-of-week notes to heart. Good trading.

 

0940: Half is 05.

 

0946: And now between one range and another. A rock and a hard place.

 

1004: This provides an excellent example of why I discourage using the SLA in ranges. Price behaves differently in ranges than in trends, and if the trader insists on using the SLA in ranges, he's going to overtrade and he's going to get stopped out a lot. Why bother? Use AMT and relax.

 

1023: Hinge with an apex the same as the median.

 

1025: See how price behaves when eq is resolved.

 

1030: They got six pts out of it, now they're re-adjusting.

 

1039: Now a GIANT hinge.

 

1051: This is getting long in the tooth, and the lines will meet in half an hour. If it doesn't break soon, then it's of no use.

 

1106: Third effort to leave this range, but it doesn't want to travel more than halfway through it.

 

1115: Once these hinge lines meet, they can be deleted.

 

1129: Looks like all but two people are gone, but I'll point out that there is a larger hinge on the 15m chart, same apex +/-, but it won't resolve any time soon.

 

End of Session

 

I'm posting this not because the chart is so awfully difficult, but to point out that if one just happened to take the short off the failure at 24, there's no particular reason to exit just because one re-enters the range. If the line ain't broken, just stick with it, in this case all the way to the bottom of the range. At that point, one can either exit because he's reached the bottom, or he can wait until his SL is broken.

 

Of course, it also helps to be there at 1330 . . .

 

Edited March 9, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[boru 10]

not sure I will be free today, very likely will be in and out, these are the levels I'll be focusing on to see how price reacts at them. I am curious how others approach replay, I have always run mine at 2x and watched at least the opening thru 12:00 . My thinking was its as important to see how price approaches these levels as much as what it does once its there. Lately I've been jumping right to the areas trying to pinpoint entries and exits. am open to suggestion, thanks

 

I posted a corrected chart to your ET journal. Your lines are incorrect and will mislead you.

 

 

Ah! It worked. I wasn't sure if I could transfer it by URL. I saw that Thanks, as much as I would like to use the TCs right now they are more of a hindrance than a help. I have other things to work on,

Edited March 9, 2015 by boru

[lajax 10]

Hi everyone.

 

Here are my PM Levels.

 

Daily/hr

 

 

15m/5m

 

 

 

Although I am in the observation phase I will “venture into hypothesizing about what price is most likely to do ” as Db said. All of this in order to make sense of the PA in interest zones. Here is the chart.

 

 

 

0833: The buyers test the UL of the TR, but they didnt hold an the price falls

 

0834: The price is close to the MP of the range

 

0837: If the reversal was taken, at the open maybe now that the trade has lifted off then we could change to a higer bar chart 5m

 

0840: the sellers found demand in the MP of the TR (grey zone)

 

0842: the price makes a LL, waiting to see the next action

 

0845: Next level 90

 

0847: A decition must be made

 

0853: the price makes a HL, after reaching the 91,75, close to the LL of the TR AT 90

 

0855: A HH is done and an uptrend is going on, however note that the PA is around the MP of the TR

 

0859: If the long was not taken you must wait until the extremes for other oportunity

 

0903: The price is unable to keep going higher and it remains around the MP 00

 

0905: Hinge - maybe

 

0910: the price continues its upward movement (waiting for the UL)

 

0914: LH - LL

 

0916: The price falls again around to the MP of the TR

 

0921: Hinge within the TR

 

 

1003: Looks like a BO from the Hinge

 

1008: FBO

 

1017: BO to the upside - 1021: FBO

 

1037: The PA is listless and I am losing focus so I am done for today.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2015 by lajax