Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

[timokrates 10]

Not a particularly difficult range to locate: 10pts from 34 to 44, with a mean at 39.

 

Now one has to decide exactly what he's going to do when price exits one side or the other: where he's going to buy or short, what criteria he's going to use to determine whether or not the trade is doing what's expected, how long he's going to give the trade to show its hand, how fast and according to what criteria he's going to bail, how soon he's going to put a stop at BE if the trade works out and if he's going to place a stop at all, and so on.

 

0932: I should also point out that the 50% level of this upmove is at 20.

 

0936: A fundamental decision which must be made which I believe we've already addressed is whether one wants to trade the range, or try to, or wait until price exits the range.

 

Frightening how exact the call was...

 

But to really trading the range - even it is wide enough - one has to enter nearly at the extremes without "confirmation"?

 

Yep. But that's what makes reversals challenging.

 

1003: Not difficult to "make calls" if one has done the prep.

 

1007: It seems to be marginal, but why did you chose 44 as the upper limit as the PDH was 45 and the overnight high was 43?

 

Eyeballed it. Exactitude isn't absolutely necessary. The point is to know what a range looks like. The market will tell you eventually what the exact range is.

 

1022: So as the short is underway now. One could switch to the 5M, watch the right tick and wait for 20...?

 

Depends on your stop. Price never really gained any traction.

 

1042: True, 30 was obviously it for now. And the stop was hit at BE 37.50 - without proper trade management I would like to add. But 30 was the low of my 15M range...so... What I ask myself by plotting these ranges: If one sees that a potential midpoint has been meaningful before, can one use it to find the "right" extremes? Does this makes sense?

 

This is something that has to be determined by the individual. I don't want people trading the way I trade since everyone's risk tolerance is different.

 

To begin:

 

1. What is your entry trigger going to be? How far away from the range bottom or last swing low is it going to be? How far does it have to be in order to ensure that there is actual intent of a move down and not just a little tick burp?

 

2. What is your stop going to be, whether hard or mental? How much recoil are you willing to tolerate before it becomes clear that the trade is no good?

 

3. If the trade does appear to be working, how far does it have to go before you can think about BE and relax into management mode?

 

All this can be tested and has to be tested in order for you to be able to relax. How many? 50 or 100, however many it takes so that you have something in which you have confidence. It takes no time at all to do this. A couple of evenings maybe.

 

Add: When you do the reviews, you'll find little "tells" that telegraph intent. For example, when price dropped out of the range, it futzed around for three minutes. This is not unusual since so many are surprised by the move. And then it resumed the downmove. However, it then stopped again and began to retrace its steps. This is not good and should not happen. If the move is genuine, all the thinking should have been finished. That it isn't suggests that traders aren't as committed to the downside as one might have thought. And for whatever reason, they decided to return to the "value area".

 

Thanks a lot DB. Due to whatever reasons I use to get distracted and stuck in the testing process. So thanks again for showing the path.

 

What you mentioned in terms of the breakout of the range is noted. Very good. I suppose that it can be viewed in the same context as one wants to buyers to be eager to pay the ask or here the other way around - a clean and fast move at the end.

Edited February 23, 2015 by timokrates

[Schaefer 10]

So, this is where you guys are hanging out. Sorry, did not make it here, before 9:15 to post the charts. The drama on ET was just too good to pass up..lol

 

Schaefer

[gears 10]

Not a particularly difficult range to locate: 10pts from 34 to 44, with a mean at 39.

 

Not to split hairs, but I was seeing 43 as the upper range (from around 1945), not 44. Did you take the differential from the EOD high and the overnight high and combine them?

 

It's not a huge difference - I was just wondering if I'm seeing something incorrectly. Thanks.

 

Edit - hadn't seen timokrates question and Db's response. Thanks!

 

see above

Edited February 23, 2015 by gears

[lajax 10]

Hi Db, I know I am in the observation phase but I fell in the temptation to trade today and I found it very interesting. I would like to know your opinion regarding the next chart. Especially the point 3

 

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=39047&stc=1&d=1424708838

 

 

 

Sorry Db is my first time posting here I think I posted twice ... sorry :doh:

 

Well, here we get into personal preference again, not dogma. I prefer not to take trades that are re-entering the range because they tend not to have much going for them, and I don't like scalping, However, this is something you'll have to test then decide whether or not to pursue it. It's easy enough to test.

 

 

Ok Db, thanks for your point of view

Edited February 23, 2015 by lajax

[lajax 10]

Hi Db, I know I am in the observation phase but I fell in the temptation to trade today and I found it very interesting. I would like to know your opinion regarding the next chart. Especially the point 3

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Note: Until you guys have five posts, I have to approve them. So be patient and don't repost what you've already posted. I'll get to them as quickly as I can.

[DbPhoenix 42]

.............................................

[40draws 10]

All this can be tested and has to be tested in order for you to be able to relax. How many? 50 or 100, however many it takes so that you have something in which you have confidence. It takes no time at all to do this. A couple of evenings maybe.

 

Add: When you do the reviews, you'll find little "tells" that telegraph intent. For example, when price dropped out of the range, it futzed around for three minutes. This is not unusual since so many are surprised by the move. And then it resumed the downmove. However, it then stopped again and began to retrace its steps. This is not good and should not happen. If the move is genuine, all the thinking should have been finished. That it isn't suggests that traders aren't as committed to the downside as one might have thought. And for whatever reason, they decided to return to the "value area".

 

 

That is from DbPhoenix, and I didn't want it to get lost in the body of timokrates post.

 

FWIW - price needed two hinges to get back to the top of that range. When a hinge forms near a limit, and the breakout from the hinge does not carry through the limit, I look the other way. You can test that too.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's posts have been moved to a new thread and this one closed.

[Schaefer 10]

15 minute chart. Price approaching previous day high, and right above that is the daily upper trend channel line. Hopefully, we'll see some movement.

 

Schaefer

[Schaefer 10]

Price touched the previous day high, and bounced back to the pre-market low. It was good for a scalp, but the key is to take your profits quickly at the pre-determined levels, and not get greedy.

 

Price bounced back up from the pre-market low, and testing the mean, as I type.

 

Schaefer

[Schaefer 10]

And yet again, price pierced the pre-market low, and bounced all the way back up, to the pre-market high. So, all one has to do is watch how price behaves around the pre-determined levels, then look for the "right tick", as DB would put it, and take the trade. Well, in my case, that would be, "right candle stick", as I use lower time frame candle sticks to initiate the trades.

 

Schaefer

[Schaefer 10]

And with the closing of the last 15 minute candle, the trading day is over. Price broke through the previous day high, however, I did not know in advance, that the price would do that, so I had my profit target at 44, and that's where I got out for the range play. I may be wrong, but I always assume, that the price would bounce in a range, until it actually breaks through the levels with authority.

 

Schaefer

[DbPhoenix 42]

In order to keep these threads as short as possible while enabling posters to post as much as they like, I should point out that TL provides a very long "open" time. I don't know exactly how long, but apparently it lasts at least as long as the session. So rather than begin a new post for each additional comment, one can just add to whatever he's already posted.

[boru 10]

these are my levels for2-24 pre open

Edited February 24, 2015 by boru

[fourtiwinks 10]

0905: Here is my PM chart:

 

0945: NQ broke 50% of the opening DT, and is approaching the mean of PD range.

 

0949: Since NQ is above both 50% just now, my view is that buying pressure is stronger than selling pressure..

 

0952: Looks like the Open is of importance too..

 

0958: I thought there might be a hinge forming, but I was wrong.

 

1010: Wonder how would NQ respond at the orange?

1012: It bounced off ONL and 50% of PD range again.

 

1020: Wonder what price is going to do?

 

1022: Since NQ is approaching the Open.. went pass it.. buying pressure is exceeding selling pressure again..

 

1044: As Gamera has mentioned, that 50% is holding as support..

 

1101: Wonder if a hinge is forming?

 

1109: NQ has broken up and approaching ONH and PDH. How will it react to those pivots?

 

1116: An interesting observation.. based on what Gamera suggested yest and what Db had mentioned before, either in ET or TL..

 

1140: Will PDH and ONH hold as support?

 

1156: Wonder if NQ would test the 50% PM range?

Adios Db, Gamera and all, see you guys tomorrow..

Edited February 25, 2015 by fourtiwinks

[timokrates 10]

Here are mine...

 

23 is the halfway point underneath...

 

Spend a long night with ranges and potential entries.

Very inspiring. Did not generate a whole plan. But...well...we'll see.

 

Happy to be here and learn.

 

In general I seem to suffer the Kelly Bundy syndrom. For every information that gets in another one is leaving the brain...

[Gamera 15]

Looks like we might open inside yesterdays range.

 

09:33 Price breaks below the PM low and MP of the rally going into yesterdays close.

 

09:36 Price is pushing on previous days low.

 

09:39 Price dropped close to yesterdays afternoon low put in a ret that was confirmed but has failed to follow through so far.

 

09:42 40 is a PM DB and MP of yesterdays afternoon rally, might choke if price gets there.

 

09:50 Price is putting in a ret on the MP.

 

09:51 Confirmed.

 

09:52 Previous days range top is in the 43-44 area.

 

09:53 Price dropping off, and back below that 50% area, watching for a DT at lows.

 

10:01 Possible breakdown unde rway, watch for a possible ret.

 

10:02 The BO failed to follow through and price came back in to the range.

 

10:08 Price tagged the opening low which is the range low and has failed to break lower, this also created a HL, the previous swing high at 41 may prove to be tricky.

 

10:11 Price might make a range top on this area in the short term.

 

10:17 LH and making our way back to the lower extreme.

 

10:28 Price pushed higher, next level on the upside is previous days high.

 

10:37 Price broke above the 50% area and has retraced back to it where it now seems to be acting as support.

 

10:48 Upper extreme of range is around 49, if we take in the the failed breakdown as a movement from the mean it puts the top around 54.

 

10:55 Price is struggling at 45 which was fridays PDH and yesterday range top.

 

10:56 Price making a small range for itself 40-46.

 

11:09 Price now approaching the upper range.

 

11:10 Tagged the ONH, stopped 2 ticks shy of PDH.

 

11:12 Price breaking to ATH, see if it follows through.

 

11:16 Not exactly looking like a BO thus far.

 

11:26 Price has made a push at the projected range top and so far seems to be failing.

 

11:31 Price pushes past projection, wondering if we are going into an afternoon grind now.

 

11:38 Price has dropped off, on the down move we might choke on the PDH.

 

11:50 48 on the downside really not giving up at the minute.

 

12:01 Back in range.

 

12:03 Price might ret back to 48, this is just a test of supply.

 

12:11 We have tested the upper part again at 48, price seems to be holding in this area, we will have to wait and see if it breaks higher or drops into range again.

 

12:16 Price did not make it too far to the upside before dropping back into the range.

 

12:20 Price seems hesitant to move to the downside, pushes a little lower then retraces.

 

12:29 Have to go, back in 30.

 

12:32 Nice drop past the MP, I'm gone this time.

 

13:13 Back in action. Price is still in range but failed to push to the lower extreme, after a couple of pushes of the mp price broke higher and seems to be heading back to the upper extreme.

 

13:23 Not a whole lot to do until price gets to an extreme.

 

13:37 Price has made it back to 48, this is the earlier range top, whilst the breakdown to 27 and the breakout to 55 represent possible range expansion, I wonder if these merely represent failures of price to move beyond this tighter range.

 

13:40 Should we still respect 48 as the range top?

 

13:59 Whilst price broke a little higher it is back below 48.

 

14:08 Price makes a lower high then drops back into range.

 

14:14 And we move back out again.

 

14:15 Price seems to be chewing up this area at the minute.

 

14:20 Range at 48 2 up 2 down.

 

15:03 Price has moved to the upside of this small range but is not following through with much fanfare.

 

15:09 We could be building up to a double top.

 

15:29 Could this be a DT, or will price continue to grind higher, the behaviour in the lead up might suggest the latter.

 

15:36 Initially price seems to be dropping off but it is a lethargic move so far.

 

15:41 Price pushes higher.

 

15:45 Prices dithers and has failed to follow through to the upside so far.

 

15:51 Price seems to be dropping off, but it will have 48 to get past in order to keep going.

 

15:56 I'm calling it a day, a little hard going with what at times feels like PA malaise, with 3 trading days left on my rota feels like the market is keeping its best moves for next week. Nothing new there then.

 

Gamera.

Edited February 24, 2015 by Gamera

[gears 10]

Here are the levels I'm reviewing. Not sure for how long the overnight range will have an impact.

 

That 1001 REV happened so fast - took me by surprise of the swiftness of the movement.

 

1021 - Hinge anyone?

1022 - Not anymore...

Edited February 24, 2015 by gears

[Schaefer 10]

A very small pause bar for yesterday. The weekly uptrend is still intact. I expect the market to be confused, as we're at the all time highs, and right at the weekly upper trend channel line.

 

Here are my 15 minute pre-market levels, and daily.

 

10:00am: Chart 3: 30 minutes after the opening. Three trades: 1) Short from break down from pre-market low. 2) Bounce from previous day low. 3) rejection from pre-market low.

 

10:00am: Chart 4: Updated: Price testing previous day low. I got out at 31.

 

10:30am: Strong rejection from the previous day low. Unfortunately, I missed the trade due to some distractions in my office. Testing the mean of pre-market.

 

11:15am: Price tested the mean of pre-market, and took off to breach the previous day high. This would have been a perfect, "leave it the hell alone" (LITHA) trade, and something I will be trying to do from now on.

 

12:00pm: Rejection from the previous day high.

 

1:00pm: Price pierced the 50% mark of the day, and now above it. Not sure, where it'll go from here, so I'll sit tight on my hands, until it reaches one of the extremes. I did catch the drop from the rejection of the day's high, and that was a good run.

 

1:44pm: According to the hourly chart, we may retest the high of the day.

 

2:00pm: Price retesting previous day high. Looking for the "right tick" here. DB would not approve of this channel, as we're still in a big range. The range is big enough for me.

 

3:00pm: That previous day high was a bitch, and I got chewed up looking for that "right tick". Good news is, I found out, that the price didn't want to say below the level. So, I'm pretty confident, that it will at the very least retest the high of day, or may be even up to the upper trend channel line. In and long at 49.

 

3:30pm: Took profit before the double top. In the mean time, the 60 minute chart looks very orderly.

 

4:00pm: And with the double top, the trading day is over. All the trades followed the plan, except for the trades during the 1:45pm thru 2:15pm. The range around the previous day high took a chunk out of my profits for the day.

 

 

Schaefer

Edited February 24, 2015 by Schaefer

[Wolfhound 10]

Morning Chart. Lots of lines to observe.

 

 

Edit in afternoon with 1 Min chart added:

 

Watching this today, it seemed that we hit a lot of levels quite cleanly, and moved from the previous day's low right up to the highs. Entering at the right risk level, and holding to the opposite end of the range is another matter, but it was quite a clean day for AMT.

 

A. After the open we made it down to the swing low from yesterday afternoon, before turning up.

I had thought that this area would be unimportant, given the previous day's low just below it.

 

B. Back to the overnight low, and it seemed ready to breakout, but it never happened.

 

C. We flew through the previous day's low, and then turned around and rejected it straight away.

 

D. Higher low at the previous low point, and we make it back to the overnight low.

 

E. With the up and down motion, it looks a lot like a range has formed. We don't quite hit the lows this time, and travel back to the previous highs.

 

F. I would call this a break above the ON high, but it falls back into a range above the ON high.

 

G. We reach the previous day's high. Well done NQ

Edited February 24, 2015 by Wolfhound

[DbPhoenix 42]

Focus on extremes...........

 

0952: Tried entering at 34 off that bounce and lost a point. Then tried again a few minutes later at 35 and that held. If instead I had been thinking about the first trade and the loss, much less "making up" for the loss, it is unlikely that I would have even tried the second.

 

Focus on price, not your trades.

 

1036: If your lines are confusing you, take all of them off.

Edited February 24, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Schaefer 10]

Focus on extremes...........

 

0952: Tried entering at 34 off that bounce and lost a point. Then tried again a few minutes later at 35 and that held. If instead I had been thinking about the first trade and the loss, much less "making up" for the loss, it is unlikely that I would have even tried the second.

 

Focus on price, not your trades.

 

Amazing, we had the same exact trade. I got in at 34.25, and got out at rejection from the pre-market low.

 

Schaefer

[timokrates 10]

With the danger of cluttering or driving this a bit to far I would like to post an observation based on the trigger at range extremes - which kept me up the last night.

 

This is far from being ready to be traded with money so far.

 

So just an observation. Partly inspired by 40D.

 

So this should not lead into a volume discussion.

This is just something I test and observe atm.

 

Btw. these are the bid ask volume bars in Sierra...

 

I think they are far away from "magic", but maybe exceptional volume @ level can giv a heads up together with the other signs of potential change...

[DbPhoenix 42]

By the way, don't forget: vote early, vote often.

 

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1045: This is probably a good day to remind everyone that this approach must be traded fearlessly, logically. If one cannot trade without obsessing over a previous loss and/or for some reason cannot trade logically, he should stop. To grab onto a few points here or there just to reach some daily profit target is self-sabotaging.

Edited February 24, 2015 by DbPhoenix