Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today's chart review:

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning everyone.

 

Long Term Analysis: The Weekly and Daily uptrend is still intact. The weekly is way above the 50% retracement level of the most recent swing. The Daily concurs, and approaching the upper trend channel line. Yesterday was a monster bull trend bar, but volume shows some exhaustion, due to the climatic run, yesterday. Weekly and Daily.

 

 

Short Term Analysis: The 130 minute chart shows a parabolic climb, yesterday, and due to the new high, we now have an anchor point for a demand line. The 30 minute chart shows a strong overnight and pre market, as it did not retrace much. However, price has triple topped from yesterday's high, and two double tops during pre market. 130 and 30 minute.

 

 

 

 

Plan of Action for the Day: As per DBs recommendations, I will be looking for longer term trades, instead of scalping. This will be on Sim, to get comfortable. I will be looking for retracement from yesterday to go long per the 130 minute chart.

 

 

0944: Price retracing nicely here, my buy zone would be between 86 and 96 area.

 

0949: Price having hard time breaching the pre market low.

 

0952: Longed at 17.50, as pre market low is providing strong support.

 

0955: Stop moved to 16.

 

1000: Stop moved to BE +1

 

1150: Stopped out by the spike down, will re-enter.

 

1156: Re-entered long 21.50.

 

1211: Scratched at BE. Consecutive LHs, and a hinge on 5, and 15 minute charts. 15 minute chart.

 

1226: Re-longed at 22, Stop at 19.

 

1321: Stopped out. Re-entered at 16.75. The bulls are fiercely defending the pre market low.

 

1332: Stop moved to BE +1.

 

1500: Still in the trade. Some serious roadblock at 28. 15 minute chart.

 

 

 

1629: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price pretty much stayed around the mean of pre market, seeking equilibrium. The trade is still on, and stop has been moved to 11 to protect the position. 30 minute chart.

 

Summary: The market was in a pronounced range between 13 and 28, the entire session. I might have chosen a bad day to swing trade, as usually the day after a cliamtic day is problematic. However, good news is my last entry is pretty close to the bottom of the range, so even if stopped out, won't be of much damage.

 

Learned Today: Need to re-examine, when to play the range, and when to let the range play turn into a swing play. Even though, the entries were correct, hoping for the price to break out is less profitable, than simply taking profits at he extremes, and re-entering, when it breaks out/down.

 

Also, trading a larger bar interval doesn't necessarily have to use a larger stop, either. My largest MAE today was 3 points, and MFE was 15 points.

 

Schaefer

Edited March 20, 2015 by Schaefer

[bmwhendrix 10]

A man without a roadmap could become unhinged on a day like today.

[DbPhoenix 42]

[timokrates 10]

Sometimes one has to think that it is all about the daily levels (and midpoints in between) and the rest is the profit zone...

 

Don't know if this really makes sense, but what is getting very clear is that top down analysis and/or macro focus can not be overemphasized...

 

Next stop 57?

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. I woke up early this morning, and saw the market going ballistic, again. My sim swing trade is up 37 points at the moment, and I've moved my stop to 35 to protect the position.

 

Long Term Analysis: The weekly is quickly approaching the upper trend channel line, and swing high of 83 from the week of 03/02. So far, the candle is a strong Bull trend bar. The Daily concurs, and yesterday was a small doji bar, or a pause bar. Weekly and Daily.

 

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: Strong over night price action, as price never tested yesterday's low. Pre market price action is even stronger, as it breached yesterday's high, and going parabolic at the moment. 130 minute and 30 minute.

 

 

 

 

Plan of Action for the Day: Take profits between 60 and 65, other wise, enjoy the perks of swing trading; surf the net, watch porn, play violent games, watch DB and Fortydraws making fools out of trolls on ET, etc.

 

 

0915: First target hit at 60, taking partial profits. Moving stop for the rest to 48. Trade now at 44 points.

 

0948: 48 is the mean of last breakout swing, so will watch what happens, when price breaches 48. But until then, still in the trade.

 

0957: First swing low has been created at 48.25. Last swing high is 61.24.

 

1040: Stop moved to 48.

 

 

 

1118: We're now in a range, not unlike yesterday. Took partial profits again at 61.

 

 

1152: Final target hit at 65, and I'm now flat for a 44 point trade.

 

 

 

1301: Apparently, the up side move is not over yet for the day, which makes sense, because most of the move happened pre market. 30 minute.

 

 

 

1614: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price made one last swing high, then sold off for the weekend. It is important to note, that the demand line drawn in hindsight on 130 minute chart has been breached, and supply line on the 5 minute chart has been established solid. 30 minute chart.

 

 

 

Summary: The Weekly ended up solidly, as an engulfing bull trend bar, and only 11 points to go to test the all time high of 83.25. Price action tells me, that it will surpass next week.

 

Learned this week:

 

- NQ being a mean reverting instrument, tends to reverse at the extremes, more often than it does on break outs.

 

- Re-energized SLA. *Reset SLA, when a range is formed.

 

- Started to emphasize more on swing trading. When jockeying for position during entry for a swing position, and encounter a range; it is far more profitable to day trade the range, and when price breaks out/down, then take the break out/down for swing.

 

Have a nice weekend,

 

Schaefer

Edited March 20, 2015 by Schaefer

[Schaefer 10]

DB, Good Morning, I'm still learning the SLA. Did I fan this last line correctly?

 

Thanks,

Schaefer

 

Technically, yes, but it is of little value except in hindsight. In real time, each ranging pause acts as a reset, so the current trend doesn't actually "begin" until price exited the range this morning.

 

None of which really matters since the "target" is 4500. The purpose of the SLA is to get you there.

 

Okay, got it. Thank you, Sir.

 

Schaefer

 

 

Edited March 20, 2015 by Schaefer

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Schaefer 10]

 

 

Thank you DB, I'm saving these pics. They helped a lot, especially the 15 minute one.

 

Schaefer

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

Edited March 23, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[gears 10]

Thanks for your posts Db! It's reassuring for me when my identification of ranges and context matches up with yours. I'm sure you wonder how I don't always see the same thing, but it happens (shock and awe). Recently, I'm aligning more.

 

Excellent, though I'm not always right. This is just what I see.

Edited March 23, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone! Another day of NQ trading.

 

Long Term Analysis: The Weekly is still uptrending, however, approaching the previous swing high, as well as the upper trend channel line. So, we should be seeing interesting price action soon. The Daily concurs, and last Friday was a weak Bull trend bar, with a pronounced wick at the top, indicating sellers started coming in towards the end of the day. Weekly & Daily.

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: Two lower highs on the 130 minute chart, and a SLA supply line is in effect. However, broke through the supply at the open, and forming a range at the moment. Note: The mean of current range, and previous day mean overlapping each other, meaning we will have messy price action around this area. 130 minute & 30 minute.

 

 

 

Plan of Action for the Day: Range is too small to play, wait till price leaves this range, and apply SLA.

 

 

1143: We're still in that little range, and nothing else happening, so we sit on our hands. 30 minute chart.

 

 

 

1234: We're still in the range. So far, we're seeing some pop up action, as I type this. 30 minute chart.

 

 

1346: Still sitting on hands, and now we have a hinge, and traders may seek new equilibrium at a different level. 15 minute chart.

 

1642: Had internet outage here at my office, so no updates. However, looking back in hindsight; we had a hinge, then breakout to the upside, then double topped at the extreme of the upper range, and sold off all the way back down to the extreme of the lower range.

15 minute.

 

 

Summary: A classic range bound day. Price opened at the mean of yesterday, and pre market, so high probability that price would be range bound. Right off the gate, it tested the lower extreme, then upper extreme, then the mean, then the upper extreme, and finally, the lower extreme to finish the day.

 

Learned to day: Some days, it's better to sit on your hands, or go do something else, than trying to force the trades. The range was about 15 - 16 points, it's definitely tradable. However, the only worthwhile run was the sell off from 1430, but no one knows in advance. Learning to read the "right tick" at the extremes, kept me out of trouble today.

 

 

Schaefer

Edited March 23, 2015 by Schaefer

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. Today's going to be a good day to trade.

 

Long Term Analysis: The Weekly uptrend is still intact, and price appears to be in pullback from last week's strong bull trend bar. Last week's bar maintained the HH, HL. The Daily looks a bit more weaker than the Weekly. Friday was a weak bull trend bar, and yesterday was decent bear trend bar, as well as "inside bar". In candle stick world, this is a classic retardation in momentum. It doesn't mean "reversal", but a slow down in momentum. Weekly and Daily.

 

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: The overnight price action was mixed, but volatility picked up early in the morning. Price tested the yesterday's low, rejected immediately, created a double top (pre market high), and sold off all the gains the bulls made in the last few hours. The 130 minute chart shows a distinct LHs, and LLs. 130 minute and 30 minute.

 

 

 

Plan of Action for the Day: Previous day low is going to be the key today. It will either break down, or bounce from there. If you look at the 30 minute chart, you'd see DB's, "Hot Stove" behavior very clearly.

 

 

0940: Price looking weak here, it may breakdown, but don't jump the gun, wait for "second chance" entry.

 

0946: Hot stove; Failed to break down.

 

0948: High 45.50, Low 32, Higher low 40.75. Longed for a quick scalp to the mean. Longed 36.75, stop 36, target 45.

 

0952: Stop to 41.

 

0955: Stop to 43.

 

0956: Out at 43. Came within 1 tick of the target. Do not move the target, discipline is the key.

 

 

1012: Now tested, and rejected from the upper extreme. 15 minute chart.

 

 

1018: Rejection of the rejection.

 

1025: Rejection of the rejection's, rejection..lol Sitting on hands for now.

 

1031: Long 51, stop 50.25, target prev. day high.

 

1035: Stopped at 50.25.

 

 

1102: Sitting on hands still. The 30 minute bar is showing weakness. High 56, Low 51.25, and LH 54.75.

 

1107: Breakout; Longed 55, stop 53, target day high.

 

1108: Stop at 54.50.

 

1124: Stop at 57.50.

 

1128: Stopped at 57.50.

 

1148: Re longed at 57, stop 56.25, target 69.

 

1325: Okay, came back from lunch, and it was stopped. Will wait until it gets to the lower extreme. 30 minute chart.

 

 

1346: Short here at 39.50, Stop 40, Target 28.

 

1421: Time stop, will assess at end of 30 minute bar.

 

 

1436: Target hit at 28, a couple of minutes ago. Now flat, re-assessing.

 

 

1620: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. After tagging 28, price retraced all the way back to 40, and then did another run down, and ended at 30.50. 30 & 15 minute chart.

 

 

 

Summary: Today was another classic AMT day, and price traversed yesterday's range; up and then down. Price opened up around mean of pre market, again, then tested the lows (hot stove), then it shot up like a rocket to the upper extreme. Then did a "V" reversal back to the lower extreme.

 

Learned Today: No need to be scalping, when you have a pronounced range, just buy, or sell at the extremes, then LITHA (DB's, Leave It The Hell A Lone).

 

Reading the "right tick" at the extremes is the key to proper entry, but do not get too carried away from the actual, "Price Extremes", as it is more important than the "right tick".

 

 

Schaefer

Edited March 24, 2015 by Schaefer

[jack411 10]

Nice call on 28 Schaefer! What made that your target? Just a breach of the low?

[Schaefer 10]

Nice call on 28 Schaefer! What made that your target? Just a breach of the low?

 

 

DB taught me to always look to the left. It was the pre market low/congestion from 3/19 (I think).

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. A very late start today, as another round of internet problems here at my place of business.

 

Long Term Analysis: The Weekly is still in uptrend, and we're in a pullback from last week's engulfing bull trend bar. Today's already Wednesday, and we've still not breached the high of last week's, so that's weakness. However, we're still above the mean of last week's bar, and way above the mean of last swing. Daily is definitely weaker with a pronounced LH. Yesterday was a weak doji bearish bar, in price action definition, it was bearish, as it tested the previous day high, only to be pushed all the way down past the previous day's low, and ended the day near the bottom. Weekly & Daily.

 

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: The overnight price action was mixed, as price could not go above yesterday's mean, and could not go below yesterday's low. The pre market action was a bit more volatile, as it tested the low, and created a new high. So we have a pronounced range to trade the market. 130 & 30 minute.

 

 

 

 

Plan of Action for the Day: Already missed the opening sell off, but we still have a long ways to go to the next lower congestion area. So, shorts all day.

 

 

1515: Finally got my internet service back, and we've already reached our next closest lower congestion area. Incidentally, it happens to be the low of 03/18. 130 minute chart.

 

 

Schaefer

Edited March 25, 2015 by Schaefer

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Gamera 15]

 

I was keeping an eye on the the market as we were hovering just above a range prior to the open and thought it was pertinent to what I am currently looking at.

 

I was curious about the DT / TDTDB 20 minutes prior to open and I thought at the time if I was to get involved that would be a short, but, does the proximity of the range top which has acted as resistance for the majority of the night throw this out.

 

As your chart shows, just prior to open price was below this level (range top) and at open we saw a push up putting in a quick H,L,LH which would have put an entry around 4433 +/-.

 

At the end of the day there is only a few points of difference, is this a price risk/information risk situation?

 

Gamera.

 

A double top suggests a short, not the opposite.

 

The premkt and postmkt charts should be used together, in sequence.

 

I'm not sure I follow.

 

The three premkt charts I posted this morning and the two I posted postmkt are a sequence.

 

I might wonder into the weeds here a little.

 

Premarket:

Daily: In the process or has created a lower high/ weak DT, LOLR down?

Hourly: Indicates price is dropping off and has pushed into an earlier range where it is hanging around in the upper half.

15min: Price is in a range 27-34, price had tried to escape the range but was rejected, this rejection pushed back into range and beyond the LL where it was also rejected.

 

I understand what a DT suggests, what I meant was, does one take that DT (09:11) as a short where there is a possible risk of little follow through (Range top - support) or should one wait for more information by observing how price interacts with the range top? this interaction would have triggered a short 3 minutes after open.

 

Feel free to move this out of here and into ask DB if you feel it is more relevant there.

 

Whether you take the short before the open or after is up to you. Depends in part on how well you can tolerate potential opening volatility. What is more important here is that there should be no consideration of a long at all.

 

Now I am following, as I am studying these things I wondered what your take on the PA was leading into the open. I'm sitting on the sidelines for the time being but once my mental short was taken off the DT I switched to a 15 min sat tight and saw little reason to get out until price hit 4342, even there I wondered if price being closer to the daily mean than its most recent highs might pull on price overnight or into the next session. As for tolerance, I think I am becoming increasingly tolerant to opening whipsaws as long as they are within parameters/limits. As for longs, 15 min, never a consideration, but as a disclaimer I did not have skin in the game so it might have been a different story.

 

Downtrend, double top, failure to hold above the top of the range, so it was just a matter of waiting for the open volatility to provide an opportunity, which turned out to be the retracement marked. But there was no reason to exit until the close.

 

In terms of a lower time frame <5min there is a possible sla long down there depending on how tight their lines were and where they started them from, but, sticking with the 15 min, other than a 3 tick push on the last swing high there was no exit and with the draw of the daily mean 40 points lower and the fact that by now a trade is worth 90-100 points, I would hope that I would not sweat 3 ticks.

I have a long way to go.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Gamera

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. The construction at my office still continues, and my internet may drop any time, so I'll try and get this in quick, while I'm online.

 

Long Term Analysis: The Weekly uptrend is still intact, however, this week's bar has created a pronounced LH, as it is unable to breach the previous week's high. It will also become an engulfing bar, IF the bar completes the way it is right now for the week. Price has breached the mean of the weekly trend channel, and approaching the mean of this last swing.

 

The Daily is looking more bearish with a LH double top, and breached the low of the last swing. However, yesterday was a climatic parabolic drop with volume exhaustion, so we may see some reprieve today. Weekly & Daily.

 

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: The overnight price action was bearish, as expected, as Asian and European markets took the sympathetic drop, as well. However, price found some buyers, around 4270 (pre market low), created a double bottome, and it is now approaching the pre market mean. It is important to note that, we are now between the weekly trend channel mean, pre market mean, and the mean of the last weekly swing. 130 minute & 30 minute.

 

 

 

 

Plan of Action for the Day: We've just broken out of the pre market range, so look for longs on retracements, and look for shorts from yesterday's mean area.

 

 

0935: Longed at 79.50, stop 77.50, really late on that one.

 

0941: Stop at BE +1.

 

0947: Target hit at 4300, flat, reassessing.

 

1031: Welp, I missed out on that "V" reversal from the high, and the second bounce from the bottom due to distractions at the office. So, right now we're in the middle of the range, so will wait till we get to the extreme, and reassess.

 

 

1132: We're still stuck in the middle of day high, and day low. However, price seems to be closing in on the day high, and the trend line from over night action. We'll have to wait and see, if it'll break out, or not. 30 minute chart.

 

 

 

1234: Price has tested the previous day low, and immediately got rejected. It may retest the means, and 92 area. 30 minute chart.

 

1503: Price double bottomed just above the mean, and tested the pre market high. So far, the sentiment has been pretty bearish, even though, we've rejected the bottom pretty hard.

 

1617: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price was unable to close above previous day's low; it tested, but immediately rejected by traders. Price did manage to close in the upper half of today's range. 30 minute chart.

 

 

Summary: It was an interesting day, as price hovered around the lows of last two weeks, as well as the mean of the weekly trend channel. Price was pretty volatile, yet, trendy in the morning, but that quickly went away with the first range forming around 1100 hours. After that, it ranged up, and down multiple times between previous day low, and the two important means.

 

Learned Today: I need more practice in taking "V" reversals.

 

 

Schaefer

Edited March 26, 2015 by Schaefer