Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

[Schaefer 10]

So here we are.

 

I'll grant that trading longer bar intervals isn't exactly pins and needles (which is why this didn't work out the last time, which told me a great deal about why people daytrade in the first place), but at least it gives one time to think (eagerness to trade supplants deliberation).

 

But even if there are only two people using this, it's here.

 

If I may add, trading longer time frame is not exactly "hands off", as one might think it is. For example, I usually trade on 15 minute price bars (candles, same). But you'd still need some form of shorter interval price bar, or DOM (tape reading) to look for proper entry. Here's an example; 03/09 Short from mean of 03/08 with the 60 minute primary chart and 90 sec (1.5 min) entry chart.

 

 

 

Now, bar opened at 1330, but price did not get to my price level until 1346:30, and had to watch price action for 8-9 minutes, until I was reasonably confident to take the short, which then takes another a couple more minutes.

 

And after you're in the trade is when you really have to focus, and watch the price action to make sure, it's still viable to stay in the trade. Of course, once it has moved away from my entry point, I was able to set the stop loss, and walk away.

 

So, my point is just because you're using a longer interval price bar, in this example, a 60 minute bar, you're not actually going to be glancing at the chart, once every 60 minutes for a couple of minutes, place an order and walk away. It takes a lot of preparation, focus, and balls of steel to get into a trade, and once in it, it takes equal amount of work, until your MFE is at a reasonable distance, then you could set your stop loss, or trailing stop, and wait for the profit target to get hit.

 

Even then, it's not a good idea to walk away totally, yet. When things go wrong on a 60 minute bar, they go wrong BIG. It happened to me once; put on a trade, had MFE of 5 points, but had to go do some thing, and I was confident the trade would keep going my way, so did not want to set a BE stop, in case, it shakes me out, so put catastrophic stop at 22+ points away, and left it alone. An hour later, I was stopped out.

 

So, moral of the story is just because you're using a longer interval price bar, please do not get complacent.

 

Schaefer

 

PS: Sorry, DB. I know you didn't want to see short time frame charts in this thread, but this chart explains my point, much more clearly than my writing.

 

I understand what you're saying, but the issue is not bar interval but incorrect entry. If you enter incorrectly, the bar interval is irrelevant.

 

One of the major advantages of using larger bar intervals is to see where the better opportunities present themselves. In this case, the entry should have been some time after price dropped out of the range that stretched from the afternoon of the 6th through the morning of the 10th (an even better entry would have been the drop immediately preceding the range). The longer one waits to enter that breakdown, the higher the probability that he will be stopped out. Whether he enters on a 15m or 30m or 5m or 1m doesn't matter. As for trying to enter off last night's range, the probability of success with that is slim due primarily to the fact that it's the third wave down but also because price is nearing the 00.

 

Be careful not to be too quick to draw conclusions off limited data.

 

Look for the ranges.

 

Thank you, DB. That makes a lot of sense, I've been focusing too much on pre market, and intraday data.

 

Schaefer

Edited March 12, 2015 by Schaefer

[boru 10]

I see LLs and LHs on the 4 hr chart RET is there, the 60 min has a TR that is to small for me to trade I will wait for a BO followed by a RET

P.S. I see price dropped out of the TR as I was typing this lets see if 4.25 holds

[DbPhoenix 42]

I acknowledge that making the transition from itty-bitty bar intervals to something more major presents problems, one of the more important being that you're trading with a different class of people, many/most of which think that small intervals are "noise". However, if one isn't going to get chopped up, it's essential to focus on context -- the forest -- rather than only on what's been happening the last few hours.

 

Perhaps it would be helpful to review where the best entry occurred, on the 6th, within the retracement on the daily after the upstride was broken. Or one might look at that as old news and find nothing of value in it. However, the "danger point" is above that retracement, and the farther away from that one enters, the more risk he assumes. There have been, are, and will be subsequent danger points along the way, but the mother is the one that signals the change in trend.

 

Beyond that, it's important to take a broader view in order to see the waves. It should be obvious that we are in the third. This is easy to see on an hourly chart. Given that we are at the end of the third, consolidation is in order. After that, we may resume the downtrend, or we may rally back to the UL. No way of knowing. But until the market sends clear signal, nothing is lost by watching and waiting.

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone.

 

A range in the brink of breaking. Hourly chart.

 

Edit: Breached.

 

 

Now, the question is do we wait for a meaningful retracement on this chart, or switch to a shorter time frame chart?

 

0925: Retracement on 5 minute chart: High 1.50, Low 98.75.

 

0930: Range now at: High unknown, Low 98.75.

 

0946: Approaching pre market/range high. Looking for short from range high.

 

0950: Testing previous day mean.

 

1012: Took a quick scalp short from the mean of yesterday. Now, we have a swing high 30.75, and swing low 16.25. Still hugging the upper area of the range. 15 minutes to go for the hourly bar.

 

1020: Lower high created at 25.50. Looking for shorts back to bottom of range.

 

1025: No opps, price moving higher, trying to break out of the range to the upside. 2.5 minutes left.

 

1030: Small hinge forming on lower time frame charts. Looking for break out now. 15 minute.

 

 

1038: Double topping with a lower high of 28.75.

 

1100: Still in the hinge on 15 minute chart.

 

 

1145: Hinge breakout, now pulling back. Low 26.25, High 31.75. 15 minute chart.

 

 

1225: Weak rebound, price may reenter the range, and retest the low. 15 minute chart.

 

 

1330: Price seeking equilibrium around the mean of yesterday's range. A lower high is in the works at the moment. High 30.25. 15 minute chart.

 

 

1500: Okay, price has been stuck in the range between 35 and 22. It's definitely tradable, but movements have been slow grinding and choppy. I'm listening to oldies, and almost falling asleep. 15 minute chart.

 

 

1507: Testing the range high, looking to short the breakout, reverse, if fails.

 

1515: Not dropping so far.

 

1518: Forming a lower high, now.

 

1605: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. It was a lousy day to trade, as practically there was only one trade worth taking from the bounce of 4300 to the mean of yesterday's range. After that, it ranged, and chopped the rest of the day. 15 minute chart.

 

 

Summary: A new perspective of trading the hourly chart. The bigger the price bar interval, the more data you need to feed to get the bigger picture. Even though it was a decent bounce from 4300, it still managed to breach yesterday's low. If price doesn't change drastically, between now, and 1800, today could just be a temporary setback, before price continues to breach 4300, and towards 4270s, and 60s area.

 

Schaefer

Edited March 12, 2015 by Schaefer

[gears 10]

Beyond that, it's important to take a broader view in order to see the waves. It should be obvious that we are in the third. This is easy to see on an hourly chart. Given that we are at the end of the third, consolidation is in order. After that, we may resume the downtrend, or we may rally back to the UL. No way of knowing. But until the market sends clear signal, nothing is lost by watching and waiting.

 

Here's an hourly chart where I've attempted to identify the waves of which you speak. Am I on track?

 

Yes. And note how 00 complicates matters. One can try to enter a break below this level, but don't be surprised if it's not clean.

Edited March 12, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Gringo 10]

00 bounce was pretty solid. Demand wasn't playing games. Now are we going to head back down or this is the beginning of the end of this down trend?

 

1013: Price seems to be having some trouble moving up.

1018: LH

1023: Lack of follow through

 

That wasn't unusual. And if one wanted to play, he could have bought that and ridden it as far as it had gas to go. But then he'd have to know to get out and not expect too much, which he most likely would if he understood the context.

 

Now we just have to wait and see what big money wants to do.

 

Notice it's hovering the middle of the pre-mkt range.

 

1050: Hinge

 

1057: Hinge still in play. Traders are in a state of indecision. Keep in mind that price hasn't gone down back to the bottom towards 4300.

 

 

1059: Price is also staying above the 50% of today's opening range.

Edited March 12, 2015 by Gringo

[timokrates 10]

So far the macro is pretty clear with the low from the 10th which was emphasized through yesterdays hinge apex.

 

It's also clearly visible how the mean in between the low between 10th and 11th plays out...

 

Now one only has to trade it accordingly...

 

But then he'd have to know to get out and not expect too much, which he most likely would if he understood the context.

 

DB, could you please clearify what you mean here. Do you mean that we are near the mean of the weekly channel and choppy action can be expected here?

 

The mean is part of it, but the immediate issue is 00. Anyone can see how powerful the rejection of that was. Whether or not one had the confidence to go long there is not the responsibility of any particular method. Whether or not he had the brains to get out when the move ran out of gas is also not the responsibility of any particular method. He has to understand through experience that those kinds of moves have only so much potential.

 

So far, however, none of this provides a springboard for a longer-term trade.

Edited March 12, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[youngin 10]

When you talk about higher intervals involving higher classes of traders, how do you know?

 

Is it because the 'big boys' have so much size to move that they are forced to use Hourly intervals and greater?

 

By no means am I calling into question your intelligence with this question, just curious.

 

That's what I've read. And it's logical. And it helps account for movements at larger interval highs and lows.

Edited March 12, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

FYI, I exited the short yesterday and will be looking to re-enter when price exits its current range from 30-40. I find it difficult to believe that the world will turn on a rejection of 00, but the market couldn't care less what I find difficult to believe.

 

The ES had an excellent day but appears -- perhaps coincidentally -- to be ranging at the level of Monday's low. How this will be resolved is anybody's guess.

[georg7e 11]

It seems like the market found buyers at 04.25 and found buyers again at 98.75. I was thinking that the 00 level was close to Wednesdays L 04.25. So, couldn't that be a test and rejection of 04.25, a failure to break thru?

 

Yes, but in terms of the trading plan, it doesn't matter. There was no extreme there, so if one were short, there's no reason to exit the short in order to go long rather than just hang on to the short and let one's rules take care of the exit. If one were not short for some reason, then a long might be called for, but it wouldn't have been worth much.

 

By "extreme" I am assuming you mean an AMT level, a mean or DL or previous proven SUP/RES.

 

The LL and UL of a trend channel or the LL and UL of a range.

 

I see.

Thank you very much, Db

Edited March 13, 2015 by georg7e

[Schaefer 10]

Friday the 13th!!!

 

Rolled over the contract, and my daily data is jacked. I'm still struggling with it, but intraday data appears to be fine, now. I'll be back shortly.

 

Schaefer

[timokrates 10]

What I ask myself is how and when these ranges expire...???

 

When do they loose their validity? I mean obviously there is another one just below...

 

 

 

I considered the range to be 30-40 (see above). The median would be 35. Price rose 12pts and fell 12pts. So what matters at this point is the median at 35, not the limits of the range.

Edited March 13, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Schaefer 10]

Okay, back in business.

 

Long Term Analysis: The down trend is still intact, and strong on weekly, and daily charts. Yesterday was a small pause bar for the daily, during a strong down trend.

 

 

Short Term Analysis: We're still in the "box" from yesterday, and pre market. The overnight, and pre market gave away all the gains made from yesterday's RTH session.

 

 

Plan of Action for the day: Plan to play the range, as it is wide enough, and take the breakout, if the reversal range plays fail.

 

 

1210: Price unable to break into the chop zone from 02/11/2015, for now.

 

 

 

1230: Buyers are coming in around 84 - 86 chop zone area from 02/11, and trying to push the price back up. Not sure, how far they will go, but judging by the price action, it shouldn't be that far up, before the sellers push 'em back down.

 

 

 

 

1335: As anticipated, price continued downward, after retracing to shake the weak hands out. We may see 70s, and 60s, if this keeps up.

 

 

 

1530: Unfortunately, price double bottomed out, and is now in a range. High is 4301.75, and low is 4281.50.

 

 

 

1630: As usual, the trading day, as well as the week is over with the closing of the last 15 minute bar on the chart. It was an interesting day, but not so difficult day to trade, as the extremes were already in place, even before the market opened for RTH. Price retested the pre market low, and took off to test the previous day high, when it was rejected, it tested the previous day's low. It tested the waters in the chop zone created on 02/11, but the buyers fiercely defended the 81 - 83 area, and bounced all the way back up to the mean of the day. So all in all, it was a picture perfect day for AMT traders.

 

 

 

 

Summary:

 

Things learned this week:

 

- Thanks to DB, finally learned how to incorporate the Hourly chart into the overall big picture. Yes, I had Daily, and Hourly charts up on my screen for years, but did not incorporate well into presenting me with the bigger picture. I was focusing too much on the pre market, and previous days data only.

 

- The proper use of the Hourly chart allows me to swing trade, as well as, day trade with solid direction due to the understanding of the bigger picture.

 

- Learned to have better faith in AMT.

 

Have a nice weekend.

 

Schaefer

Edited March 13, 2015 by Schaefer

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

 

 

Note with regard to the above chart: since this is a static chart, a smaller bar interval is necessary on the last chart so that people can see what's going on. Viewed live, it would be obvious.

Edited March 16, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[bmwhendrix 10]

Does this "trendline" have an value in this environment?

 

If you shorted at or near 48, would this line prompt you to exit?

Edited March 16, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. This is going to be an interesting week, as we are near the influential zones of the market, and important econ news though out the week.

 

Long Term Analysis: The Weekly is in pullback to the mean, after creating a new higher high. The previous week was a solid strong bear trend bar, which would require an engulfing bullish bar to reverse the trend, and or a weakening bear doji bar to indicating waning of selling pressure. The Daily ended with an outside bar, which is very hard to read price action. So, better to wait a bit, and see how things resolve itself.Weekly and Daily charts.

 

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: The overnight, and premarket has been bullish, as it kept creating HHs, and HLs. However, it's rapidly approaching the top of the range, and we'll see how price plays out at the extreme. Note:: The means of last Friday, pre market, and Daily pivot points are generally overlapping and it is a very powerful support/resistance line.

 

 

Plan of Action for the Day: Watch the upper extreme area.

 

0932: So far, rejection from the pre market high.

 

0937: Low 19.25, High 30.25, HL 21.

 

0940: High 30.25, Low 19.25, LH 30. Pre market high still holding.

 

0944: Higher has been created 32.50, still unable to close above the pre market high. HIgh 32.50, Low 25.50. LH 27.75.

 

0950: Break out.

 

0958: Double top at 42.50.

 

1000: Double bottom at 39, and break out, next stop 48.

 

1025: Rejection from 48 area, day high from 03/11.

 

1040: First lower swing high of the day from 48.

 

 

1042: Showing weakness at the extreme edge of this range. Hourly chart.

 

 

 

 

1045: Three consecutive lower highs on 15 minute chart.

 

 

1100: Breaking out of 48 area, next stop unknown.

 

 

1130: Up, up and away. Next stop could be 4425. 130 minute chart.

 

 

1200: It is lunch time, and we have a bull flag forming. 15 minute chart.

 

 

1314: Head & Shoulders pattern on 15 minute chart.

 

 

1500: H&S pattern failed, as it normally does, price broke out to the new highs. Switched to SLA, since 1330. Will we get to 4425? 130 minute, and 15 minute chart.

 

 

 

1605: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. There was nothing really to do since 1330, as SLA kept the traders in a straight line, until almost to the end. I will not be posting my 5 minute SLA chart here, as per the thread rules.

 

 

 

Summary: Today was an up trend day, however, it was no walk in park kind of trendy day. Price basically went up in two segments. The first segment was already in the making with the range above the means of pre market, and previous day, as well as the daily pivot. The second segment happened after the failed head and shoulder pattern.

 

Learned today: When trading the extremes, if price doesn't want to go back into the range, then only two things left to happen, either breakout/down, or range. Anticipating range would save one from pain most of the days. 130 minute and 15 minute charts.

 

 

Schaefer

Edited March 16, 2015 by Schaefer

[georg7e 11]

This is obviously hindsight, if you don't want post it or move it, that's fine, but just to confirm I am understanding the method correctly:

 

Been in dwn trend all last week. Median of Wkly TC was approx. 4270, Friday's L was 4281, on the June contract, pretty close to median.

 

Uptrend since 11:30 Friday, sorry all my times are PDT, 3 hrs. behind NY time, mkt has been in uptrend.

 

Pre-mkt

The line at 40 is RES from Db's 60min. chart. Before the O on the 15m chart, there was a clear UP trend channel and a rng from 2:00-5:15.

 

 

 

O at 24.25

6:31 up to 30.25, +5.75 from O

6:33 dwn to 19.25, -5 from O

 

The 15 min. shows that 19.25 was pretty much right on the DL and a couple of ticks above the MP of the pre-mkt rng., rejected that $.

 

6:43 a breakout above O H up to 32.5, a HH, was rejected back into rng, RET was pretty deep, but considering the TC & MP SUP at 19.25.

 

6:46 buyers came in at 22 a HL , there being a SL coming dwn, and according to one's rules this would be a potential SLA RET long entry, on a 1m chart, where a reasonably close stop could be used.

 

Then ride the trend till exit rule comes.

 

To be clear, this would be an SLA RET in an uptrend, I hope.

 

Db, is this reasoning in accord with this method?

If not, kindly, set me straight.

 

Thanks.

 

The diagonal lines aren't necessary, and the SLA really doesn't come into it until price leaves that pre-open range. But you appear to have the essentials.

 

See the triple chart I just posted to my post above.

Edited March 16, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[gears 10]

Db - the 3part chart you posted above shows the 60min timeframe with the 50% level in an area a bit different from mine (attached). Is that due to rollover? I'm not trying to be a jerk - just wondering about the difference in price points.

 

Doesn't really matter. What is important is the springboard at 20. One could leave off prices entirely.

 

Also, I'm wondering about the range action this morning and possibly some tells. Hindsight is awesome for confirming, but it's understanding live that makes one profitable (duh - I know). The initial push up was +4 and the push down was -3 as you indicated. To me, the first activity was just more range behavior, but by enlarging the range.

 

Here's the question: is it the +4 and -3 that gives an inclination that up is the LOLR or is it those two pieces of information WITH the HL that follows that provides the road map? Or is it not until price hits around 4333 that one really knows?

 

The +/- just illustrates the price discovery process, and it doesn't happen every day. But it's important to know what it is so that one doesn't get trapped in it. The HL is the tell, or at least the most important one.

 

And by the time one "really knows", it's usually too late.

 

Thanks for your time...

Edited March 16, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. Here's what I'm looking at; essentially the same as DB's, but mine are prettier.

 

Long Term Analysis: The daily appears to be turning back up towards the upper trend channel line. The previous swing high was a HH, so uptrend is still intact. Yesterday was almost an engulfing bar, which is one of my criteria for a reversal. It is also a wide range bar (WRB), which is tricky to trade. Daily and 130 minute chart.

 

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: The overnight and pre market has been in a range, or rather a widening triangle with a pronounced mean. Note: Price is pretty much back to yesterday's close without dropping much, and that is strength. 60 minute chart.

 

 

Plan of Action for Today: Anticipate breakout of yesterday's high. Look for longs around yesterday's mean.

 

 

0930: Price opened right at the mean of pre market, which is usually messy. Waiting for the price to get to one of the extremes.

 

0953: Price still meandering around the mean, got a quick scalp from the range high, now looking for longs, as price spent more time above the mean, than below.

 

0957: Longed at 52, target 59.75.

 

1011: moved stop to 53.25.

 

1014: Stopped, flat.

 

1019: Bouncing again from the mean. Price staying above mean for the most part. 15 minute chart.

 

 

1031: Small range within a range. Ya think, it's a range bound day, today?

 

 

1130: Finally, out of that little range, and tested the bottom or pre market range. Missed a long entry for a quick scalp.

 

 

1245: Okay, text book AMT day going on here. Price tested the pre market high, low, and breaching the pre market high. It should breach the previous day high, and continue up.

 

Note: Not posting chart here, as per minimum 15 minute bar rule. I use 5 minute charts for SLA. Since, we've broken out of that little range, I've highlighted on my 15 minute chart, price broke out of that range at 1100 hours, and we're in SLA mode with supply line drawn. It was quickly stopped out. Then we've got a demand line drawn at 1200 hours, and we're still in the trade.

 

 

 

1314: Price attacking previous day high at the moment, but since we're already in SLA long from 5 minute chart, we're staying in.

 

 

1350: Demand line fanned on 5 minute chart.

 

1411: Still in the trade, but notice the waning momentum. 50% level has been drawn for the current swing. Breach below the 50% means, I'm out. 5 minute chart.

 

1417: 50% level has been breached and I'm out, flat. 15 minute chart.

 

 

1426: Will look to reenter, if price holds above 50% of last swing on 5 minute.

 

 

1430: SLA short 69 via 5 minute chart.

 

1433: Stop moved to 70.25.

 

1440: Stop moved to 68.

 

1442: Stopped, flat. Will re-enter short, as supply line is still intact.

 

1444: No, entries. Re-assess.

 

1450: SLA short re-entry at 66.

 

1451: Stop at 67.50.

 

1452: Stopped, flat.

 

1455: SLA long at 69 at the breach of supply line. Stop at PDH.

 

1500: Stop moved to 67.50.

 

1509: Stop moved to 70.

 

1519: Stop moved to 73. The secondary anchor point for demand line was made available at 1515 bar 5 minute chart.

 

 

1531: Price has breached the demand line, and went side ways for just one bar. Still holding.

 

 

1535: Moved stop to 74. Unable to fan demand line yet, as no new high has been created yet.

 

1540: One bar range as Al Brooks would put it.

 

1540: Stopped out at 74, while posting above pic. Flat, reassessing.

 

1606: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading is over. The buyers ran out of steam, as evidenced by Bar 24, which was a doji bar, which by the way, is a one bar range, according to Al Brooks. But continuation of uptrend has been further confirmed, today. How far it will go, and will it breach the previous swing high is yet to be seen.

 

 

Summary: Today was another interesting day, as we had AMT, Range, and SLA, all in one day. The first a couple of hours was quite sluggish, and range bound, but as soon as the range was broken, SLA kicked in kept things in automatic mode.

 

Learned today: I usually do not trade SLA, but today, I was bored, and also, went back and studied SLA per DBs recommendation, and now I'm back with better understanding of SLA. It's pretty nice, really. All my stop outs today were around 5 - 6 ticks, and I was using 5 minute chart for SLA. Thanks DB.

 

 

Schaefer

Edited March 17, 2015 by Schaefer

[timokrates 10]

A breakout and and retracement - for 6 points...

 

PDH seems to hold for now...

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

..............................

[DbPhoenix 42]

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. FOMC Day, today and as usual, anything can happen. But typically, we should have a tradable range in the morning, range and chop around noon, and go wild at 2pm.

 

Long Term Analysis: Weekly uptrend is still intact, and still above the 50% retracement on the most recent swing. Daily concurs the bounce from the mean, and approaching 50% retracement on most recent swing. Yesterday was a good bull trend bar. Weekly & Daily charts.

 

 

 

 

Short Term Analysis: The 130 minute chart showing weakness, as it broke the demand line, but still above the 50% median line for the most recent swing from 03/15. The 60 minute showing double top from yesterday's high. It has also breached below the mean of yesterday's range. So essentially, we're back in yesterday's range. 130 minute & 60 minute.

 

 

 

 

Plan of Action for the Day: Today is FOMC day, and it will be messy. Today's playing field will be the yesterday's range, and I will be paying particular attention around yesterday's mean, which coincidentally overlaps with yesterday's pivot point. Longs above mean, shorts below. AMT from previous day high, and low.

 

 

0926: Pre market has found the low, and now we have pre market high, and low, as well as the mean. Price stalling at day mean, at the moment.

 

 

 

0934: Price opened right at the mean of yesterday. Shorted for a quick scalp.

 

0939: Out of low of pre market.

 

0941: Re shorted.

 

0945: Stop at 53.25, target 42.

 

0959: Stopped at 52.50, flat.

 

 

1100: Finally, price has breached the mean of yesterday, and the pivot point. Even though, the price has risen from the lows, it has been extremely exhausting, and slow grinding. However, when it drops, it drops very quickly. So, not going long yet, just because, it has breached the mean.

 

 

1116: Long 60.50, stop 59.75.

 

1125: Scratch at BE, not moving.

 

1131: Sell order at 55.

 

1135: Scratch -4 ticks.

 

1148: Reshorted at 55, 3 tick stop.

 

1158: Stopped - 3 ticks. Okay, I'm making the broker happy today.

 

1230: Sitting on hands for now, until the report comes out at 2pm.

 

 

1330: Quickly approaching the previous day low, and it's almost 2pm. So, fireworks should be here soon. I usually, do not trade this way with extremely tight stops, but on FOMC Day, anything could happen, and I'd rather be on safe side. 30 minute chart.

 

1427: Okay, apparently the Feds have solved the entire Wall Street's problems, and everything is good to go again. 30 minute chart.

 

 

1431: Never too late to join the party. Long here at 02.

 

1434: Target 17, and 20, Stop 03.

 

1449: Scratched at 05.

 

 

1610: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price has gone parabolic in the last hour, and a half, and it still managed to close out the day near the top. 15 & 30 minute.

 

 

Summary: Market opened at yesterday's mean, tested the pre market low, tested the mean, and tested the previous day low, and took off to the moon. It was pretty orderly for a FOMC day. However, I did not get much out of the day, as aside from scalping here, and there, I don't really trade FOMC days.

 

Note: Price will be retesting the upper trend channel line, a lot sooner than expected.

 

Schaefer

Edited March 18, 2015 by Schaefer

[gears 10]

I'm not usually a fan of FOMC days because as Schaefer said, it's usually range-bound in the morning, dead at lunch and crazy at 2PM. Today wasn't much different, but even in that context, AMT is almost like magic. The idea of "amazing one's friends" is not that far off. Hell - it amazes me. But perhaps that's why I haven't "gotten" it yet - because I'm still amazed and not completely prepared for the options. Hmmm...

 

Not that everyone can't see this too, but:

-Price didn't bounce at 4341.75, but there was time to see if the level would hold - and it did.

-Next stop the ever popular level of 4365.75. Price actually hesitated there, but not for long…

-Then we head up to high from the 13th (4424) where price has now moved away from. Will there be another test? It's possible.

 

This AMT business is just damned cool…

 

<Back to your regularly scheduled programming.>