Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

[fourtiwinks 10]

... I see only Gamera, Schaefer, and lajax are left, which is a shame. But the downside target here is 42. (Not a shame that they're here, but that everyone else is gone.)...

 

Sorry Db, but 1100 EST is actually midnight in my time zone. So I'm shooing jumping sheep off my charts after 1030 EST, although I join them sometimes..

 

In fact, I plan to stop observing NQ after 1030+ EST each day, and enjoy all the good commentaries and views in this thread (and fortydraws') after I wake up.

 

I see. And it must be difficult to concentrate on stuff like this so late. But it is interesting, though not unexpected based on experience, to start out with over 30 people and end with only three

 

Remember, though, that AMT applies to all auction markets, so consider pursuing something that trades over there. The contrast would be interesting. This is about the SLA/AMT, not the NQ per se.

 

Sure Db, I'll keep that in mind. For now, it'll be good for me to keep track of NQ in order to learn from you and other practitioners of AMT who are using the SLA/AMT correctly. When I can integrate the principles effectively into my mindset and trading, will I apply to other markets as well.

 

Btw, I cannot participate in the discussions today, so here's wishing you and all a good trading day ahead!

Edited February 26, 2015 by fourtiwinks

[boru 10]

the levels I'm watching at the open using a hr chart also posting a daily chart for a bigger picture

 

well it was a slow grind but price traded up to 58 now REV ?

Edited February 26, 2015 by boru

[DbPhoenix 42]

So George. Are you just window-shopping? Did you ever abandon indicators?

 

Oops, I scared him away.

[gears 10]

Areas I'm looking to for activity/indication of further movement.

 

1055 - How many times will it take price to get back to 53? Or will it be heading back to 45 for a bit?

Edited February 26, 2015 by gears

[Schaefer 10]

Good Morning, everyone. The econ reports did not influence the market too much this morning.

 

Long Term Analysis: Weekly, and daily trend is still up, and intact. Price began to waiver around the upper trend channel line, yesterday, but failed to take out the low of 02/24. So, we have a small range going on from 02/23 thru yesterday. Daily & Hourly.

 

 

 

Medium Term Analysis: The overnight price action was lackluster at best, and econ reports did not do much to influence the market. Price range is still in the middle/mean of yesterday's range.

 

All the levels of interests have been marked. 15 minute chart.

 

 

9:52am: Text book open, bounce from low of pre market to high of pre market, then range at the mean. Took one trade from bounce of low to high.

 

 

10:45am: The market is still trapped in the pre market high, and low. However, the range is wide enough to trade. The 15 minute chart has been orderly, except for that climatic sell off on bar 2. 15 minute chart.

 

 

This one is for DB, about the low reversal today. I saw the volume climax, and the subsequent range/hinge convinced me to go long. However, when price bounced around the mean a couple of times, I exited like a little bitch, then watched the price go all the way back up the high.

 

 

11:50am: Bull flag on 15 minute chart. However, I would not go long, as being so close to previous day high, and daily upper trend channel line.

 

 

12:30pm: Bull flag failed, as expected, and sold off all the way to the mean of the day, and retraced all the way back to where it started. No trades were taken.

 

 

12:45pm: The intent of the buyers seems pretty clear. Price is back to where it was 3 bars ago. A lot of buyers stepped in around the mean of the day. This might be the break out to the upside move. Switching to the short time frame chart.

 

 

12:51pm: Breached the previous day high, and touched the daily upper trend line. Lots of sellers coming in as expected. Looking to see, if they would succeed.

 

1:11pm: Sellers unable to bring the price back down. In and long at 59, stop at 57.75.

 

1:16pm: No follow through, out -6 ticks.

 

2:23pm: Back from lunch. Buyers had no interest going above the high of day. Price dropped almost all the way back to the mean, again, and retracing back to the upper half, as I type this.

 

2:30pm: No follow through, as expected, and now, double bottom with the low of 12:15 bar, which incidentally, happens to be the mean of the day.

 

 

 

2:38pm: Dissecting the double bottom failure with tick chart.

 

 

 

3:15pm: Price bouncing off the mean of pre market; this has been the norm lately.

 

 

 

3:31pm: Fast approaching the high of day, which coincides with previous day high, and daily trend line. Maybe double top?

 

 

4:00pm: Double topped, then breached all the highs. It was a weak push, and quickly retraced below the daily trend line, and the previous day high. But the intent has been shown.

 

And with closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price prettymuch traversed through the range from yesterday, and ended the day with a bull trend bar, with good volume. This could be the precursor for breaking out of the weekly/daily channel for another round of bull run. 15 minute chart.

 

 

Schaefer

Edited February 26, 2015 by Schaefer

[DbPhoenix 42]

I know it must seem redundant to post these charts as they will likely all look the same, but it's a habit to acquire, like putting on one's socks before one puts on his shoes before going to work, like reviewing the weekly, daily, and hourly. Once it becomes automatic, one no longer has to think about it.

 

0925: I'll point out only what 40D posted in his journal, that 45 has been important ever since it printed as last Friday's high. But unless something unusual happens, I won't be entering any trades unless and until we reach one or the other of the extremes here. 30pts is a nice range, but it's still a range; we're not trending.

 

The fact that price is hugging the upper limit of the weekly trend channel helps to account for our presence here as well as the slope of the daily highs.

 

0932: Given what we've settled into over the last couple of hours, 38-48 may provide some opportunities. Some of you have noted this as well.

 

0935: 41 people. Goodness. Maybe a good time to remind people to vote: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/poll-do-you-believe-dbphoenixs-writings-can-make-you-a-profitable-trader.289851/

 

Down with trolls!

 

0944: Since the median of the pre-open range was 43 and we dropped 9pts, one can expect us to rise 9pts. That doesn't mean that price will reverse there, but it's worth keeping in mind.

 

Oh well. I can't type this stuff fast enough.

 

0949: If price reaches 38, you can either exit or hold for an OS condition. Can't advise you on that.

 

0953: Trade the extremes or wait for price to leave the range.

 

1006: Most likely downside target is 30, but this isn't that mechanical.

 

1016: If you took the reversal off the upper limit, you're not required to have faith. If you're not happy with the mess down here and happy with what you've made, just take it. That's not fear; it's being realistic.

 

1020: This by the way is not something that has to be intuitive. How far above the last swing high does your trade have to go before you know that it's time to cover your short? Easy to test.

 

1024: Choking at midpoint of day's range

 

1100: I'm assuming everyone sees this hinge.

 

1116: Before memory fades, it's worth looking at the low. Even though we didn't reach 30, was there enough here to persuade you to go long? The series of higher lows perhaps? And where could you have entered and been safe? Can you find other instances of this dynamic? And if you were short at the time, that also has to be addressed.

 

1140: Not quite so easy when pace and activity are so slow.

 

1150: And another hinge.

 

1220: I hope that everyone who is left is paying close attention to how price is behaving here.

 

1426: Notice that price is bouncing off the MP of the broader range that topped at 61.

 

1432: Now bouncing off the previous MP. If it rallies from here, we may have a new range. If not . . .

 

1506: And price has trouble at the halfway point between 61 and 41.

Edited February 26, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Gamera 15]

A few things going on from the ON and the previous days action.

 

09:26 Also as a note, price is just clinging onto the range that was discussed yesterday.

 

09:31 Price opens and tests the mid point of yesterdays high low.

 

09:34 Price pushing the ONL... Breakdown.

 

09:35 Price pulls back above ONL.

 

09:37 Price approaching the ONH.

 

09:40 Could we see a DT off the ONH.

 

09:41 15 point rally in 4-5 minutes gets halted at the ONH.

 

09:43 Turns out to be a ret and pushes higher, very quick rejection will we get follow through.

 

09:44 Ret confirm instant failure, is this looking like a tdtdb?

 

09:46 Price dropping off.

 

09:47 Price is putting in a ret, which is confirmed.

 

09:48 The MP of this rally is 42.

 

09:50 Price seems to have found a little support and is rallying.

 

09:52 Price pushes lower then finds itself stopped around 41.5.

 

09:55 Price trying to push on 38.

 

09:58 Price made a ret on 38 confirms and pushes on the daily lows.

 

10:00 Yesterdays low up next at 29-30 to the downside.

 

10:02 After hitting 31 price is putting in a ret, can it push on and tag PDL.

 

10:05 No follow through to the downside yet.

 

10:07 This could be a retrace back to the BO.

 

10:15 Interesting to see if we reject the PM low or if we move back into the PM range.

 

10:16 Back in range, will it hold though and can it make it back to 49.

 

10:18 We got choked up on 42 on the way down it might happen again on the way up.

 

10:24 42 might be important as it has struggled from both sides.

 

10:28 Price breaks higher.

 

10:32 Price unable to maintain above 42 thus far.

 

10:35 After a false start price BO from 42, 49 up next.

 

10:39 Tagged 49.

 

10:41 Price seems to be hanging around.

 

10:45 And we break higher.

 

10:53 We got a ret back to 49 but this seems to be failing as it pushes towards previous swing high, might get a rev back into the range.

 

11:04 Was distracted, missed the hinge.

 

11:13 Price still moving upwards, previous days range and the top of that range discussed last night might coincide with each other.

 

11:44 Price struggling to make it to 58, might have a little range 52-58.

 

11:54 DT, no signs of a drop off yet.

 

11:55 61 up next, will be interesting to see what happens here if we get there.

 

12:09 The high low today has a mean at 45, which is the same mean as PDH-L seeing as we have a higher low and a lower high we might be developing a large hinge with 45 as the apex.

 

12:20 Price got as far as 59 and seems to have dropped off back to the mean.

 

12:26 Got quite a rejection of the MP.

 

12:38 If price fails to push below the MP is it a sign that price could be headed higher? will have to see how it reacts to the highs.

 

12:47 Spiked to 61 is this a DT from yesterday?

 

12:58 Despite making a DT price is still hanging around the high. could we move higher still?

 

13:20 Price now drops off from the DT, 45 up next.

 

13:35 Price made a drop off that got halted at 52 which is the MP of the most recent rally from the test of the larger MP at 45.

 

13:46 Price seems indecisive, cant push higher cant push lower.

 

13:58 Might have a hinge developing.

 

14:06 Price breaks to the downside.

 

14:08 Ret, will it come back to apex.

 

14:11 Confirmed.

 

How long is it going to take you to get back up to speed after three weeks?

 

14:39 I'll be coming off day shift next time, so 2-3 days by the time I have caught up with everything and everyone, This time coming off nights has been harder than most for some reason.

 

14:41 Price found a top at 61 which was the previous days high and the upper extreme of the our lesson on ranges yesterday, it has dropped, and as if by coincidence the drop is arrested at the range low.

 

14:46 Now its a case of waiting to see if this range holds, or, will price head to morning lows.

 

14:52 I've attached a chart, if a short had been taken a stop just above the high would have been safe, although the PA might have been testing, the reaction to the mean might have resulted in a decision being made, it all depends on tolerances I guess.

 

14:57 There was also a quick fire rev down there that could have been taken as a get out or long entry once price came back to the range.

 

15:00 Price got to a point -/+ of the mean and has dropped off the the lower part of the this range I am looking at. 45 was the MP that was up for grabs earlier but I wonder if the longer multiday range has taken priority.

 

15:05 Pushing on that extreme now.

 

15:07 Seem to be getting a rally off of it.

 

15:09 Just noticed the low at 14:35 was right on the opening 30 minute high low MP.

 

15:11 Might have been helpful if I knew that in advance but I deleted my lines as the chart was getting cluttered, still even without the lines I should have been paying attention.

 

15:13 Spike to the mean, will we pass or will we fail?

 

15:15 A little choke on the mean.

 

15:16 Ret.

 

15:18 Confirmed 61.5 on the upside.

 

15:19 The apex of that hinge might also be a consideration at 58.

 

15:21 Another ret.

 

15:23 Confirmed.

 

15:23 Rejects very quick though possible dog.

 

15:24 Woof.

 

15:25 Has to over come the mean on the downside.

 

15:26 The confirmation ran right into the hinge apex +/- a tick

 

15:27 Price struggling on the mean, might still head up yet.

 

15:29 The ret failed initially, the rev failed on the range mean and now we find price pushing higher again.

 

15:30 Ret.

 

15:33 Pretty deep ret.

 

15:35 Risk of this turning into a rev.

 

15:37 Almost a rev if it turns down it will have to get past 52.5 on the downside.

 

15:41 Almost a confirmation of a very ugly ret,... confirmed.

 

15:42 Still looking at 61.5 price is struggling now, another ret just as it pushes higher.

 

15:43 Confirmed.

 

15:44 I'm not saying it again.

 

15:46 Price halted a point shy of the mark.

 

15:50 61.5

 

15:51 62.5 high so far and price rejects, will it move away or hang around like it did last time?

 

15:53 This is where management decisions get made, exit because price hits the extreme or set some kind of marker once it hits that extreme like a previous swing low, in this case 57.5 you give up a few points but make yourself available to an overbought condition, and who knows how much further that can go.

 

15:56 Price is out of range SLA comes in now.

 

15:57 Retest of daily high. if price re enters the range that would give one a decision to make.

 

15:59 Ret becomes a rev and we re-enter the range going into the close.

 

16:01 The latter part of the day was very interesting to watch play out, I got a little lost at times in the first half but found my bearings after lunch.

 

Hope everyone had a good day.

 

Gamera.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Gamera

[Wolfhound 10]

09:25 ET

Chart attached with a few lines that I will look for in the morning.

It looks a bit messy, but I am including 50% levels until I get the hang of what lines work best for myself.

 

 

09:40

Rejected the overnight low and then back up to the overnight high of course.

I'd guess if I ever get good at trading, it will seem like the movie Groundhog Day.

 

09:46

Interesting. The overnight high today, matches the one yesterday, and is also at the extremes of some ranges during yesterday morning. The resistance to 50 is obviously strong this morning.

 

10:00

The price fell from 50, but stalled around 50% of the upmove at 09:50, so I guessed that it might make another move to the highs. It didn't get anywhere near the highs this time, and fell quickly to the overnight low again, and straight through. Previous day's low is at 29.

 

10:14

Not exactly shooting back up. Just moving slowly over to the downward trend line.

Its getting a bit like a range.

 

10:20

Reached 50% of the down move and have a retracement

 

10:39

That retracement turned into a slightly upward channel and then broke to the overnight high. So do we make a move up to 5 points above the high to 54, like with did 5 points below the low earlier?

 

10:44

It should be 4 points actually. Which would be 53.

 

10:49

53 stopped us for now. But for how long? Surely we have to go somewhere today?

 

Not necessarily. One can't trade yesterday's chart. Each day presents its own opportunities. One day might be gangbusters and the next a big snore.

 

10:54

We retraced to the overnight high, which I like, but we have already moved up 20 points and its nearly 11am. Will the traders coffee break stop the advance?

 

10:55

Touched upward trend line from 10:14

 

11:04 Looks like a hinge, and a failed breakout. We might range for a while.

 

11:12 Or maybe not. Up at Tuesday's high of 56 now.

 

11:20 Through 56, and a retracement. Not far to the previous day's high at 61. Hardly worth giving up now.

 

11:26 Demand line broken with retracement to 56, and breakout below.

 

11:30 The hinge that I think is there, has a mean above 50

 

11:53 Gone a bit quiet now, but it was interesting to watch the price go equal distances from the mean earlier. It happens quite often at exact levels, and it still makes me wonder at the traders behaviour.

 

12:03 Through 56 again after another failure at today's high.

 

12:13 I'm going to get something to eat. I may come back to see the afternoons action.

 

 

I never got back to the market, but I added my chart for the day. The time zone is off by an hour, and I can't figure out how to change it, so 9:00 on the chart is actually 10:00 ET

Edited February 27, 2015 by Wolfhound

[gears 10]

1220: I hope that everyone who is left is paying close attention to how price is behaving here.

 

Meaning that price soundly rejected 4445?

[timokrates 10]

1220: I hope that everyone who is left is paying close attention to how price is behaving here.

 

Really a nice bounce from this midpoint.

 

One has to be quick to enter...perfect example of a V...

 

But the more I test this all, the more one can get confident taking the trades at those levels.

 

Even when I still have problems to make this all quantifiable...

[40draws 10]

I know it must seem redundant to post these charts as they will likely all look the same, but it's a habit to acquire, like putting on one's socks before one puts on his shoes before going to work, like reviewing the weekly, daily, and hourly. Once it becomes automatic, one no longer has to think about it.

 

 

Can't be stressed enough. I very quickly got to the point were even if I am not able to trade that day, I do this work or I have a strange feeling of anxiety that I won't be able to shake. It is THAT important to create this habit if you want to trade SLA/AMT, imo.

[timokrates 10]

 

1426: Notice that price is bouncing off the MP of the broader range that topped at 61.

 

1432: Now bouncing off the previous MP. If it rallies from here, we may have a new range. If not . . .

 

1506: And price has trouble at the halfway point between 61 and 41.

 

Price trades higher - new value - new range - new extremes - new opportunities?

 

Does this makes sense the way I plotted the ranges?

 

What 40D said a few days ago was really enlightening.

 

"I don't trade bar intervals, I trade ranges."

 

Do they make sense? Yes. Does the market have to make sense? No. Why? Because behavior doesn't always make sense. Why? Because traders don't always know what they want. They're watching each other just like you're watching them. Don't think they're not.

 

The determining factor turned out to be the median of the pre-open range. This effectively cut yesterday's range in half, from 30pts to 15, which may account for at least some of the difficulties in trading it. How quickly could one have picked up on the possibility that the lower limit of today's range was going to be so much higher than yesterday's? And even if he acted on that, how much could he have reasonably expected, given his entry and exit criteria, to have earned out of that bounce back to the upper limit?

 

The lesson, of course, is not Oh Well but trying to find those "tells" which might warn the trader that this time it's going to be different. And sometimes it's just not possible. Sometimes one has to just bail, or not enter at all, and wait until he achieves the clarity he needs to make a confident decision. It is, after all, only one session.

 

As for the bar interval thing, yes. The bar interval is irrelevant unless you just have to see price moving and following the right tick doesn't do it for you. The danger in using a small interval is that you might freak when you think price is stalling or moving against you, whereas with a larger interval you wouldn't even notice.

 

Thanks a lot.

Edited February 26, 2015 by timokrates

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today was an excellent example of the "challenges" facing those who want to trade AMT intraday. While yesterday was as easy as falling off a log, today one was more likely to be rolled over. The day illustrated the principles of AMT just fine. The problem was trading it.

 

Trading the SLA is about as straightforward as it gets. One knows where to enter, where to exit, when to stop. The AMT, however, requires a sensitivity to price movement -- i.e., trader behavioir -- that is much greater than that required by the SLA. One can overcome this, however, by being stringent about the rules he follows to engage the market.

 

For example, if one is going to trade only the extremes, which is a sound approach, what is his entry trigger going to be? What are going to be his criteria for determining whether or not the trade is successful? Where is he going to exit if those criteria aren't met?

 

What are his expectations for the trade? Does he expect price to reach the opposite extreme? What is he going to look for to tell him that it might not? What if he's wrong? What are his criteria for re-entry?

 

Today the initial long was rather straightforward, though taking it took a bit more confidence than the trader who is new to this might have. And given the speed of the market, getting filled might have been an issue. Even so, let's say that trader got in and wanted to ride the trade all the way to the opposite extreme. But the opposite extreme was at 60 and price turned at 59. Was this enough? What could have told you to exit the long and look for a short? Was there a fail? Was there a lower high? Where, again, would your entry trigger have to be? How much room would you have to give it? Could you tolerate the room required?

 

Then there was the drop to the halfway level. Yesterday, price slid right through, no problem. Today it reversed. What to do? You can't go long unless you exit the short. What criteria are you going to use to exit the short? What then are the criteria you're going to use to go long instead? And what about the exit criteria? Can you be satisfied with setting a stop at breakeven, then sitting around for two or three hours waiting for your trade to go in the desired direction only to have it reverse on you unexpectedly and stop you out at breakeven?

 

Above all, remember that the market does whatever it has to do to teach you those lessons which will lose you the most money (the market, of course, is not sentient; the games that are played and the "lessons" that are learned are games that the trader plays with himself, and the lessons are those that he convinces himself are being taught by something outside himself).

 

No one can tell you what you should want. You may find that the easiest trades are the first one or two and that, over the long haul, it's best if you just quit (in all honesty, I would not have been here yesterday afternoon if it had not been for you guys). Or you may find that trading ranges at all is just not your cup of tea, and that you trade better by waiting for trend days (they don't take long to show themselves, after all).

 

But whatever you decide, remember that there is a structure to this upon which you can rely. It may not accommodate your every whim, but neither is it random. Traders are looking for trades just like you are. That what you're looking for does not at the moment jibe with what they're looking for is to be expected. You do, however, have to decide just what it is you want and what you're willing to settle for. When someone starts talking about "feelings", freeze your intake valve. This isn't about feelings. It's about ranges, the medians of those ranges, and the limits of those ranges. The principles may not play out according to the book on any given day, particularly if other traders are just as confused as you are. On days like today, learn what you can from it, apply what you learn to what you already know, and to hell with the rest. If you need to tweak something here or adjust something there, try it. But don't junk your whole tactical set into the dumpster and start all over again for the sake of a day that may not reoccur for weeks. Or months. Or ever. Rather shrug your shoulders and start fresh tomorrow.

 

And review Gamera's notes

[DbPhoenix 42]

[DbPhoenix 42]

With regard to my comments to Gamera four up, the "channel" that enabled me to earn so many points today will very likely have evaporated by tomorrow, so don't get too excited. Since we dropped so far below the lower limit, traders may look for value someplace else. Or they may head back to 45. Perhaps the ON will give us a clue. But we may be in the position of just having to follow their trail, which is not nearly as easy as simply buying or selling one extreme or the other.

 

30 was hit on Monday and tested and rejected yesterday, so maybe 30 is something to look at. Again, it depends largely on what happens ON. If price shows no interest in moving back above 42, then we may be in new territory. I find the unanswered questions interesting. Lots of people don't. But that's what makes trading fun for me, or at least engaging.

 

I am hypothesizing that the fact we fell so hard suggests downside from here, but we may just go sideways. I'd be surprised to see us make new highs. But you never know.

 

Judge the market by its own action.

 

In the meantime, look both diagonally and laterally. Price can't hide for very long.

 

I'm referring back to this post I made yesterday partly to show just how full of crap I can be and partly to point out that that "channel" we talked about appears to be intact. If so, it may account for the bounces just above 40, and if it is, we have a few points to go on the upside.

 

There is logic to AMT, though one doesn't always know where to look for it.

[Ganaje 10]

A little preview for you guys from overseas .

 

Continuation of yesterday afternoons trading range, from the open a test of the low and high of the range.

A little peak above the high but no buyers were found, price went back into the TR and found support on the MP for a while.

Then price went down fast to the other site and spend some time there, a retest of the MP and down again to the low of the range and beyond.

Let's see whether support at 481 holds.

 

NB This is the (CFD of the) future of the Dutch index (AEX).

 

 

 

 

 

Some context with the daily and 60M charts.

 

On the daily price is trading above the MP for more than a month and for the second time above the upper channel line now, let's see whether it can stay there or falls back into the channel.

Conditions are overbought, but on the 60M things look a bit more relaxed, can it stay above the MP?

 

 

 

 

Well, 481 didn't hold. First a retest of the lower limit of the TR and then down through 481 almost to the high of yesterday's TR, right now back up to 481. We probably stay in this range till you guys wake up...

 

 

 

 

Oeps, never assume... That 481 level doesn't seem to be important. Price shot backup to the low of the TR, looks like we have a new trading range between 2 TR's.

 

 

 

 

Seems that way, price fell all the way down to the top of yesterday's TR, with a spike into it but was quickly recovered. Also note the median of the 60M channel (dotted blue line).

 

 

 

 

Just before the US markets open and we are back at the top of the new TR.

 

 

 

 

Right from the open price went up into the previous TR to test the high once again, then back to the low and seems to break out now.

 

 

 

 

Nope, big spike, but price was driven down quickly back to the MP.

 

 

Well, from the MP price was slowly going up and eventualy broke out and doesn't seem to look back. Midpoint=springboard?

 

 

 

 

 

Price did look back (a bit) at the close of the market, but right after it started rising again.

Uncharted territory, new highs (at least for the last 8 years or so).

 

 

Edited February 27, 2015 by Ganaje

[boru 10]

I know its early and subject to change but...

 

can someone tell me why when I edit my previous edits are erased? tyia

 

No idea. Sorry. Try clicking Preview Changes before Save Changes.

Edited February 27, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Schaefer 10]

There's major construction work going on at my office building, and I'm sure, it's going to be a late start for me, today.

 

Long Term Analysis: The weekly/daily up trend is still intact. We're still in the range from 02/23. Yesterday was a strong bull trend bar, almost engulfing 02/25. The daily highs have been breached continuously, but there is very little follow through in the past 4 days.

 

Short Term Analysis: Again, the pre market price action has been lackluster, and stayed within the upper half of previous day's range. However, the 10 point pre market range is well defined, and that, usually allows us play the opening range, then to one of the extremes of the previous day's high, or low.

 

The Daily, Hourly, and 15 minute charts.

 

 

 

 

 

10:42am: Missed the opening session due to construction work here, but it appears to be exactly the same as yesterday's price action; bouncing up and down inside the high and low of the pre market. However, traders seemed to have found an agreeable area above the mean at the moment. 5 minute chart.

 

 

 

11:45am: Not much really happening here, which is norm for Fridays. Actually, we've been having late afternoon rallies on Fridays for the last few weeks. So we shall see. 5 minute chart.

 

 

12:40pm: Welp, still hanging around the mean like nobody's business. Lots of selling pressure, but price wouldn't go anywhere, so that means almost equal amount of buyers anad sellers. 5 minute chart.

 

 

2:25pm: Here's proof that the market is alive today. After meandering around the mean, more selling pressure ensued, and the buyers decided, it's not worth buying anymore at that level. The buyers attempted a feeble double bottom, but was met with lots more sellers. 5 minute chart.

 

 

3:36pm: The inaction of the buyers resulted in a minor sell off. Today's range is still within yesterday's range, essentially creating an inside bar. The buyers were interested ata 36 level, but is being tested to the downside, as I type. 15 minute chart.

 

 

4:00pm: And as usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. There were some buying interest around 36 level, and sellers agreed. I will add this level for me to watch for Monday. 15 minute chart.

 

 

 

Summary: A slow grinding, choppy and range bound day. Learned and witnessed first hand, the importance of using larger interval bars, and looking more to the left on choppy, and range bound days.

 

Have a nice weekend everyone.

 

Schaefer

Edited February 27, 2015 by Schaefer

[lajax 10]

PM levels

 

0930 The buyers test the UL of the ONR,

 

0931 Later on the Lower Limit is tested

 

0932 The buyers try to take control and BO to the upside --- the RET is needed in order to confirmed their willinggness

 

0935 Ret triggered and confirmed

 

0936 There were no follow through and the price goes to test the BO

 

0939 The BO is tested and the buyers take the price above the previous High -waiting for what happen next

 

0941 although a HH is done the price falls TDTDB

 

0943 The price falls into the range

 

0944 Testing the Lower limit of the ONR - BO - RET is needed

 

0946 Middle of the PD

 

0948 The sellers find demand and the price retrace

 

0950 Testing of the BO

 

0953 RET Triggered after testing of the BO of the ONR

 

0955 Ret discarded

 

0956 The price returns to the Range after a HL and a HH are done

 

0957 Looking at the 50% of the previous down movement from 62 - 46

 

0958 The price continues with the uptrend

 

1000 Trying to reach the day High also at the UL of the ONR

 

1004 May be a reversal could be traded here??

 

1005 the price seems to fit into the range again

 

1008 MP of the ONR the price rebounds

 

1012 Hinge

 

1013 the price continues the down movement

 

1015 the price starts a retrace testing the previous BO of the Hinge at the ONL

 

1017 All this action is made inside the ONTR

 

1021 The price is making an uptrend inside the range, but until the moment there is no enough strength

 

1025 At this point I would consider a big Hinge, until the moment of the day

 

 

1038 Hinge + Range = Observe and wait

 

1048 Closer to the UL of the Hinge and Range, Hinge redrawn taking as reference the gringo chart (attached)

 

1104 the price seems to BO from the Hinge, but is also around the MP of the ON range

 

 

1130: the price BO to the downside - Waiting for the Ret

 

1132: Ret triggered - waiting for the confirmation

 

1133: Ret discarded - HL is done

 

1135: The price is testing the MP of the ONR

 

1141: Is important to note that all the action is given within the range

 

1148: That is all for today, I need to do other things, here is the last chart until now

 

 

PS. Thank you Db and all of you guys this is a great way to learn. See you on monday

Edited February 27, 2015 by lajax

[Wolfhound 10]

09:00 I have attached the chart before the open. The overnight high is at the high of Wedensday, and the ON 50% is at the high of Tuesday.

We have been making higher highs everyday this week, but it is slow going. There is a lot of down movement and ranging during the days. Friday might be a trend for a change.

 

09:36 We have made it to a point above the overnight high, and holding for the moment.

 

09:43 We struggled to get anywhere above the OH high, even with the PD High so close, so now we are making a move below. Looks like a gap on my chart. What was that jump about?

 

09:46 I will now jinx this and say we have a trend. Holding below the ON lows.

 

09:51 Okay, trend killed in one easy comment.

From what I can guess about buyers and seller motivation this morning, the people who bought above the ON Highs were frightened when it fell back below the lows, and then there was no one to take their contracts off them.

Finally after a fast drop with little interest in holding the price, someone has stepped in, thinking that the contracts are going cheap below 50. Does that mean that they are buying in hope or expectation of a proper move upwards?

 

10:01 Back to the ON high. Should make the PD High this time. We had a 5 point move below the ON Low, so we are due at least 5 above the ON High.

 

10:11 I'm the king of predictions . Did I say 5 points, I meant 5 ticks.

 

10:15 Well, we opened at the highs and have failed twice to get above them, this time with a lower high, and the price has flown to the lows again after a brief range.

 

10:21 We are still trapped by the overnight range. Maybe we haven't actually woken up yet. There is still enough room to profit between the levels if you can get in, but it is going nowhere again. The up moves are a lot slower than the down moves. It looks like no one really wants to spend any money today. Waiting for someone else to start the trend.

 

10:49 The action is getting very tight now. No downward movement, just hanging around the highs waiting.....

 

10:56 Sellers started to offer lower prices to get anyone to bite. A now we got a few interested buyers to take it up a point or so. Will it start a stampede of bigger fools, or just stay here?

Edited February 27, 2015 by Wolfhound

[fourtiwinks 10]

0904: My PM chart... (I copied the channel that I saw in fortydraws' thread)

 

0933: NQ has pierced through ONH.. but seems to have difficulty in staying above it.

 

0935: NQ likely to test PDH now..

 

0943: Will NQ bounce down to 4449.25?

 

0946: Interesting.. NQ bounced off PD mid-range..

 

1011: Is NQ forming a flag?

 

1012: As the flag was forming, I failed to notice that it was at ON mid-range..

 

1013: Bye bye to the flag.. Haha..

 

1017: Is it forming a hinge? (DB had mentioned that SLA is not applicable inside a range, but I tend to use it to help me gauge buying and selling pressures.)

 

1023: NQ is heading to test Open again.. just saw Db's comment about deleting all previous lines..

 

1030: NQ seems to be trying to test the day's high..

 

1334: I was counting sheep instead of observing my charts. Time to leave and bade adieu to Db and all. Have a good weekend ahead!

Edited February 27, 2015 by fourtiwinks

[timokrates 10]

Here is what I'm having today apart from PDH/PDL and the midpoint at 48.

 

The range where price is currently trapped in was also the range from yesterday evening. Does this tell something?

 

9:50: Sierra stopped working so I was watching price solely on the book trader. Amazing... When it reached the 60 area the turn was very obvious. Maybe there is a reason why one does not see many charts on professional screen and only DOMs...I mean obviously you have to know your levels, but the rest can also be watched on the DOM.

 

Btw. this is not about DOM patterns - have also been there : - just makes you crazy...:helloooo:

 

Only Supply/Demand within AMT...

Edited February 27, 2015 by timokrates

[gears 10]

Here's how I'm framing the price action for today. Watching predominantly 4464, 4458 and 4452 to start things out.

 

 

What I Learned Today:

--It's not a new lesson, but when price is ranging, the extremes are the best entries and where all the fun seems to be. I wasn't trading/simming, but that's the name of the game. No matter how quickly price may move in another area (and you might be dying to get in on the action), waiting is the best advice one can take.

--I did learn some patience today as the more I see AMT in conjunction with ranges and trader behavior repeat, confidence is gained.

--Still haven't figured out hinges - what constitutes a test, what 'tells' might exist for where price will go next.

 

My write up of the session is posted at ET: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/switching-gears-to-price-action-via-sla.282101/page-32#post-4092609

Edited February 27, 2015 by gears

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

 

 

0953: Was looking for target of 45 but may have missed something.

 

1425: Well, we finally got there, but how many hours did it take?

 

0956: From 50 ppl to 18. Guess we're not giving them what they want.

 

0957: The OL is 50%. And reports at 1000.

 

1014: Sorry I can't post more. Way too much going on.

 

1017: I should point out that once we get going I remove all the lines I was using for the open. My 1m chart is now blank.

 

1043: It would be helpful if each of you were to post a What I Learned Today after the end of your session.

 

1051: Note that the apex of this hinge is more or less the median of the pre-open range.

 

1105: Lots of see-sawing today.

 

1124: Once the hinge completes, you nearly always wind up with a range. Or, in this case, a range within a range within a range within a range. I'm not babysitting this one.

Edited February 27, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Gamera 15]

Having issues with my platform so no charts in advance this time around.

 

09:39 I am going to sound a little lost, I am using another charting package that has slightly different values.

 

09:40 Hopefully the behaviour will be clear enough to keep track of it.

 

09:40 PM range 57-60. Price broke to the upside then retested PM lows before breaking out again, it got a few points before failing and dropped back out of the range again.

 

09:44 Price put in a ret back to the PM range then dropped off again, takes out the ONL.

 

09:46 My range differs slightly, on the hourly, price has hit range lows.

 

09:47 Ret confirmed, but rejected quick.

 

09:49 PD afternoon Low on the downside.

 

09:52 The MP for my range is roughly the MP of the PM range.

 

09:54 RET, a little questionable as it happened in one bar, price dropped, pushed higher rejected and is now pushing lower.

 

09:56 Confirmed.

 

09:56 PM range up next.

 

09:57 Another ret, pushes into the previous ret so soon.

 

09:58 Confirmed, back into PM range.

 

09:58 Seems to be more joining every morning, maybe they want to see the PM charts then make their own decisions, I think there is real value in sticking around and getting involved as best one can.

 

10:01 Price blew through the PM range and is now heading for the upper extreme.

 

10:02 Might get a reaction off the opening high.

 

10:04 Ret almost turning into a rev, which is understandable giving where we are in relation to the opening high.

 

10:06 DT and rev.

 

10:07 Might have an intraday range top on the DT.

 

10:09 Price dropped to the PM low where it found support, it has crept out the top of the PM range, but, this could be a deep ret on the drop.

 

10:12 Chewing up the PM range and the mean of the larger range.

 

10:13 Price breaks down, will we get a DB and have a range to play off.

 

10:17 Could be a ret back to the PM range but it is deep.

 

10:19 That deep ret has become a rev.

 

10:21 I wondered about the construction of the 10:14 bar and there was a REV in there on a faster timeframe but that's just for notes, price could not get to extreme when does one decide to cut it.

 

10:23 Back into the PM range again, on the upside we have the earlier DT to overcome.

 

10:32 Activity seems to be slowing down now.

 

10:38 My charts might be quite a bit different at the moment, the hinge I see is very lopsided, but it does point to a compression, just need to fill out a bit more which it looks to be doing as I type.

 

10:43 Price was unable to push beyond the PM low and instead went higher this high has resulted in a lower high.

 

10:47 Price is pushing at its most recent series of highs which for me is 62 but for others would be around 60.5.

 

10:49 This area is also the hinge top that is being tracked.

 

11:03 Price has struggled at an area of short term resistance and the hinge top and seems to be dropping off into the PM range.

 

11:07 This most recent low allows the lower part of the hinge to flatten a little making it a bit more symmetrical.

 

11:21 Price is again pushing out of the hinge but runs into the pm low and gets a bounce back into the hinge.

 

11:29 It appears we have dropped out of the range, will we get a ret back to lows or pull back to the hinge again.

 

11:33 We had a Ret that failed to push lower and now it becomes a rev, which as I type is struggling on the PM low.

 

11:35 Guess not.

 

11:43 After a little hassle price makes its way back to PM range top.

 

11:50 Price was clinging on to the apex of the hinge and the PM high but could push no further to the upside.

 

11:59 Activity has dropped off and price seems to be meandering through the PM range.

 

12:13 Not much to do until this resolves itself.

 

12:26 If hinge low was altered to take in the low at 11:30 price would now be ranging on the mean of this level.

 

12:53 Price drops out of the hinge and the PM range, will it ret away or pull back up like it has on the last couple of breaks.

 

13:01 I've attached an hourly chart that shows what I was looking at in regards to the 09:46 reference, also a 1 min covering this hinge and PM range.

 

13:15 Price now seems to be making a concerted effort to move away from the hinge.

 

13.22 Might get a reaction off the 10:14 low, still looking towards a DB off the morning low at the range bottom.

 

13:33 2 points off range bottom 3 points off a DB.

 

13:36 Range low tagged will be watching for a ret to go lower or a rev to go higher.

 

13:37 A little push lower to a possible DB.

 

13:38 Small ret underway.

 

13:38 Watching the right tick.

 

13:39 Had a rev on a shorter TF.

 

13:41 Still hanging under the range..... Price breaks lower but comes back.

 

13:42 Price is back in range, will have to see if this DB follows through and price moves further into the range.

 

13:48 Whilst we are back in the range price is sluggish to the upside, maybe my expectations are a little high.

 

13:52 To the upside there is going to be the PM range and hinge to overcome.

 

13:54 Ret, might be going for the range lows.

 

13:58 Messy ret at risk of becoming a reversal, mini hinge in there just now.

 

14:01 Struggling to confirm.

 

14:02 Confirmed.

 

14:04 Another ret that drops onto the last ret.

 

14:07 Ret or rev?

 

14:10 Rev it is, push back to lows.

 

14:12 If price breaks down you have yesterdays afternoon low and morning low below that as potential areas of interest.

 

14:15 BO to the downside will supply follow through, this ret will find out.

 

14:19 Everyone is gone, hmmmm.

 

14:20 Confirmed, but rejected quick.

 

14:21 Possible Dog.

 

14:23 Struggling to drop lower, its trying but keeps getting bounced back.

 

14:27 We appear to be stuck at the minute.

 

14:31 A little nudge lower, not following through though.

 

14:39 despite making a little push lower there was no follow through and price had a little run up, as I type price as again heading lower with a bit more energy this time.

 

14:40 Price gets to yesterdays afternoon low and puts in a ret.

 

14:41 Ret confirmed.

 

14:45 Another ret.

 

14:46 confirmed but rejected quick, seems to be a pattern emerging with rets being confirmed and rejected so quick.

 

14:52 Ret became a rev.

 

15:04 Price seems a little aimless at the minute.

 

15:14 A little range or hinge at the lows.

 

15:22 Price breaks to the upside.

 

15:37 Price has returned to the hinge, will it do anything before the week is over.

 

15:40 Now price break to the downside, there is multiday support in the low 30's to overcome.

 

15:50 That is pretty much an end to the day, week and rota for me, whilst its not necessarily been the best 3 weeks to be trading it has been the most constructive and I have gotten a lot out of the discussions.

 

There are a few things that come to mind in terms of lessons over the last 3 weeks.

 

1. If price gets to a level you are watching and behaves in a certain way you understand take the trade, no ifs no buts, you do not know what will happen next the rest is speculation. The winners you fail to take are as painful as the losers you make.

 

2. Don't sweat the small stuff plan the trade, trade the plan.

 

3 Prep is as important as taking the trades, understand what is going on around you.

 

More specifically today.

 

Any lines one has should be treated as a guide, price being at support is not as important as price behaving like it is at support. Todays low put in a ret then confirmed into my range low, an order could have been trailed in tight behind to catch a rally, this might require testicular fortitude to take it on, or the ret confirmed and instantly rejects turning into a dog, once the ret high gets taken out an entry could be taken there, or you could wait for a further ret which comes a few minutes later, the problem is you get further and further away from your ideal entry and closer to the mean where price could chew you up.

 

Price rallied again to the opening high, put in a ret and again rejected right into a DT, another dog, whilst there were alot of rets throughout the day that confirmed and failed, the ones that ended up doing anything tended to be at points of interest.

 

To cut a long story short, Behaviour + Context = Opportunity.

 

I'm going to think about this some more, just thought I would get it out whilst its still fresh.

 

Take it easy

Gamera.

Edited February 27, 2015 by Gamera