Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

[timokrates 10]

40% pro - 60% contra so far... 45 votes...

 

DB, that you take the time to argue with these guys...

This really needs a spiritual attitude..

 

Hats off...

 

Comes with age, I suppose

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'd like to remind everyone who's trading and watching that none of this has anything to do with the SLA (see the Trading the SLA Intraday thread). This is purely AMT. And while the SLA protects one from more than trivial losses, trading ranges via AMT definitely does not. DBs, DTs, HLs, LHs etc are not guarantees.

 

Therefore, rather than fuck yourselves up and set yourselves back, just give it up if you've been losing and spend the session observing. If you can't get over a loss, deal with that rather than make things worse.

 

I'd also like to remind those in particular who are new to this that if your approach to it is generally profitable not to fuck around with it for the sole purpose of avoiding losses. Losses are unavoidable. If one attempts to avoid them, it's a short hop to cutting all your profits short because you don't want them to turn into losses. Which puts you back where you started.

 

Losing days happen. One just has to accept that and get over it.

 

1140: For those who are still around, I should point out as well that the move above 48 was the place to switch to the SLA. Sorry for the delay.

Edited February 24, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[fourtiwinks 10]

1140: For those who are still around, I should point out as well that the move above 48 was the place to switch to the SLA. Sorry for the delay.

 

Sorry Db, can you elaborate on that? I don't quite understand..

 

That was the level at which we left the range.

 

Ok thanks!

 

Incidentally, don't feel alone if you find it difficult to turn off the SLA in ranges and switch it back on once price leaves the range. It's not an easy adjustment to make. Which is why I suggest avoiding trading ranges at all unless they're exceptionally wide. A 10pt range, for me, is just not worth fucking with, much less a 5.

 

Db, appreciate this tip on selecting a suitable range!

 

From your explanation, I can see that my understanding of AMT and SLA is still weak.

Personally, I rely on SLA (assuming I'm applying it correctly) a lot (even inside the range) to try to observe trader behaviour better and it has helped me to spot potential hinges better.

Edited February 24, 2015 by fourtiwinks

[timokrates 10]

DB, for me the reentering above 44 (as the low of the ONR) was the sign to go long for me.

 

I'm still holding a small part of the position.

 

This was also an observation of the last days - that these ranges (as you said) can be used as a kind of compass.

 

So it feels that my trades get a bit more of proper reasoning, which can be used to lower risk in the first place.

 

And yes, it is temping to cut the profits short.

 

Trademanagement is the next topic...

 

Thanks for everything by the way. I will not be able to participate much over the next days and the next week - which is a shame. But I will keep working on it.

 

For me this was a good day. I learned and observed a lot.

[DbPhoenix 42]

That attempt to rise a few minutes ago is a good example of what I mean by "intent". Just how badly do traders want to rise and how far away from this does your entry trigger have to be in order to satisfy you that you're looking at genuine intent and not just a tick burp?

 

And another thing

 

One of the chief advantages of observing price is to gain an understanding of what it does, where it does it, and why it does it there and not someplace else. However, once one begins backtesting and putting together a trading plan, the difficulties involved in entering a trade that might be perfect according to what one learned during observation present themselves if one already happens to be on the other side of the trade he wants to take. One then has to exit the one side before he can enter the other. Figuring out how and when to do that is challenging, and you won't be the first to be faced with this dilemma.

 

1241: Just about everybody's gone by now, but I want to point out to those who may review these posts later that that "intent" bar mentioned earlier did what it was supposed to do, signal that traders didn't want to go higher. Unfortunately, each swing high on the way down penetrated the previous retracement so deeply that one would either be forced to use a wide stop and hope for the best (and probably get multiply screwed before giving up) or move to BE as soon as possible after entering a short and just keep doing it over and over again until price finally breaks, if and when it ever does. The trader with staying power would then be able to catch a break something like the one ten minutes ago. Whether or not this is worth sticking around for is left up to the individual. Fact is, you just never know what the market is going to provide.

 

1246: The hinge that has been forming is now being tested to the upside.

 

1306: If it isn't obvious, I should point out that that test went to 40, which ignited the big move down this morning. The hinge was then itself tested, we broke up thru 40, and now we're forming another one. More specifically regarding the earlier hinge, price fell out of it by two pts to 36, then an equivalent amount up two pts to 40, then back to the hinge apex at 38, then up. This is typical (except for the "up" part; it could just as easily have gone down).

 

1411: This has all been very instructive, so I'll come back to it. Price went up, of course, and broke through 40. One could buy that and either place a tight stop or watch it test 40 5m later and sweat. If the latter, he'd sweat for 20m until the next test, then sweat some more. Or he could just exit when price choked just after the initial breakthru and watch, calmly, then buy the next test of 40, after which price rose to the upper limit of the morning's range at 48. At that point, more messages and more drama. Price had a choice of going up or not. It chose not. So one can exit just below 48 and reassess, or he can hang around and hope it reaches 54. Some might even let it come all the way back to 40 before exiting the trade.

 

I posted this to one of the journals recently. It originally had a home here. If you're not doing this already, start today:

 

The review has at least three elements.

 

At the very least, the review should cover the trades that were done. The next step is to detail what should have been done. But the review is relatively pointless if there is no thought given to exactly what one can and will do during the next session to avoid taking the trades that should not be taken and to take those trades that should be taken.

 

Fear cannot be dissolved unless and until one achieves competence. If one feels competent to solve the problem, fear becomes much less a factor, and the more competent one feels, the less influence fear has, if any.

 

If you do not complete "proactive" reviews, you will not be much farther along in a year than you are now. If you're still hesitant about where to draw lines or how to define a "break", for example, then you are not yet at the level of competence necessary to put fear in its place. The review must provide a prescription for future trading behavior. "Just follow the rules" is not enough if one has not internalized the rules and cannot apply them without hesitation and without thought. Trading with "discipline" if one is trading a plan he doesn't trust is not productive.

 

You cannot apply the principles of Zen until you know the game perfectly inside and out.

Having the proper attitude of Zen calm and confidence does no good if you do not know the game. Zen will not make up for, or offset, incorrect play. As a result, there is a certain amount of ordinary, old-fashioned work involved in mastering the game, a certain amount of sweating the white beads before the days of tranquility come along.

 

Good [trading] is not a "mood", it is a series of individual decisions. It does not occur by "Buddhistically" meditating ourselves into some dreamlike mental state, but rather by knowing the game well and being in synch with it -- by inserting ourselves correctly into the flow of what is going on in front of us.

 

No Zen attitude will make up for this lack. You may be quite Zen-like and have all the attributes of Zen calm, but if you play incorrectly, the result is that you will get destroyed. Practice, and long hours at the table, are indispensable. (Larry Phillips)

​

Concentration and focus are as important as developing a robust trading plan. There is nothing casual about daytrading. It requires attention. But the attention must be of the right kind. The trader must be honest enough with himself to determine whether he's thinking about what traders are doing or about the status of his trade. If the latter, he needs to stop and pull himself together as no purpose will be served by his driving through the rest of the session. By focusing on the latter rather than the former, his results will only get worse.

 

It is not possible to know exactly what the market will do once the opening bell rings much less what it will do once one has entered a trade. But there is a world of difference between the trader who tenses up and holds his breath while the trade unfolds -- hopefully away from his entry point -- and the trader who understands that anything can happen and anticipates the market's moves, is fully confident that he knows how to deal with those moves, and that he will act appropriately when required to act. If the focus is on these elements, there is no space for fear. It becomes an indulgence.

Edited February 24, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[youngin 10]

DB- Don't I remember you saying that you should know in the first 10-15 mins if it's going to be a trend day?

 

I also remember you saying you can recognize when it's not going to be worth trading and go mow the lawn or clean out the garage instead? Care to elaborate?

 

I'd have to see the post.

 

As for the not worth trading, I don't like trading ranges. If we're in a range and the pace and activity are slow, I'll quit rather than get sucked into bad trades.

 

I've noticed that when the Daily is in a downward sloping channel, the trending days seem to increase. Anyone else noticed this?

Edited February 25, 2015 by youngin

[DbPhoenix 42]

There are a couple of ET posts that I want to copy here, partly for insurance and partly because they address topics which may be troubling to some here.

 

First:

 

The question was asked of 40D, "Did you see other range previous to the open? or you just take the trade at the mean of the Range (hr)? if so which was your motivation in order to take this trade, although it was located at the middle? what did you see?"

 

I butted in with

 

If I may, the error comes in looking at this entry as being "close to the middle of the range". However, the range that it is in the middle of is a larger, more "cosmic" range from the previous day, and that's not particularly relevant for a trading opportunity that presents itself at the beginning of the session. If all of this were taking place at a lower level, one could find a range within a range within a range, like a minnow inside a bass inside a shark inside a whale. In order to situate oneself, he must first understand what a range represents and what it's supposed to do.

 

The task is to find "the" range, not "a" range, i.e., the range that is most likely to influence the open, and that of course will be the range that exists before the open. Whatever range may have existed prior to that range may become important soon after the open or perhaps not until later in the day, but it's not particularly relevant at 0930.

 

40D may disagree with me on this, but here I see two separate ranges. One is from three nights ago. This provides its own opportunities day before yesterday. But two nights ago, before yesterday's open, that entire range shifts upward, and that becomes the pertinent range for yesterday's open. Whatever synergies the previous range and the subsequent range may seem to present may be pure coincidence, but they are what they are. Traders found value at a particular level three nights ago and value at a somewhat higher level two nights ago. The market is just barely trending, so it is not unexpected that these two ranges would relate to each other to at least some degree. In any case, the value that traders found prior to yesterday's open is not likely to be the same value as that which they found the night before, and for the daytrader, it is the former value that takes precedence.

 

 

The key decision here is not whether or not the range is drawn "correctly" but whether or not it presents the trader with a framework for making a trading decision. If the range is too wide, then the trader will likely spend most of the session sitting on his hands. But if he knows where traders have found value just prior to the open, a departure from that level at or soon after the open will provide a "tell" as to where traders are most likely to go. This is why I'm not so concerned with a box that's filled with price as I am with those levels up and down beyond which traders are not willing to go (the PDH and PDL provide their own "support" and "resistance" potentials).

 

There is also this post [provided below] which more specifically addresses the "40" issue.

 

Side note: you'll notice that 46 played an important role during the ON two nights ago and again yesterday during the NY regular session. But it also was important during last night's session and still is now.

 

Something to watch.

 

And the "this post" referred to just above.

 

I'm going to post this because it's been a subject of discussion lately. I'm going to post it here because this thread is about "dbphoenix's teachings" and whether or not they're useful. Whether this post proves anything one way or the other remains to be seen, but at least it's pertinent.

 

First, the context, from this morning.

 

Note that the overnight range was generally 44-48 (it doesn't matter whether this is to the tick or not; it is after all a 30m bar). Just before the open, the entire range shifts, like Alaska during the earthquake, and creates a new range from 40 to 44, the lower limit of the previous range. At around 0845, price tests that old lower limit of 44 and drifts downward. At a quarter after nine, it tests the 40 level, which it had done earlier at 0745.

 

 

Now we switch to the 1m. Note the 0915 test of 40 noted by the first arrow. Price then drops through 40. This is a breakout (or breakdown if you like). How one trades this or if one trades it at all is up to the trader. But whether he sold the breakdown or not, it only goes as far as 32. Not bad, but not great. Maybe he exits when price takes longer than he likes for a continuation. Maybe he notices that this level matches the previous day's afternoon low. Or maybe he sees that "spike" up through 38 and gets out then, maybe at BE or maybe with a small profit. Or loss.

 

 

Then he sees price re-enter -- or try to re-enter -- 40. Maybe he tries to go long there with a tight entry trigger. Maybe he gets stopped out for a small loss. If he does, then he is not only thinking about that first trade and how much he gained or lost, but now he's also thinking about this second trade and how lucky he is that it didn't get triggered or that it did get triggered and provided him with that loss.

 

What he isn't thinking about is the market, and the price movement, and when and how and when it's moving. And why. He is, therefore, setting himself up to miss a trade that will soon reach 54.

 

Unless the trader can stop thinking about himself and his trades and whether he's won or lost and how much, he will not be prepared to take advantage of the opportunities that the market gives him. He will instead miss first one, then the next, then the next, all the while deepening and enriching his self-pity. This must be eliminated. The Phillips book I mentioned earlier can help. So can a trusted trading plan. But the trader must never forget that the market couldn't care less where he entered or what his stop is, if any, or what he wants or how he feels. The market doesn't even know he exists except for his infinitesimally small and trivial trade. Rather it is up to the trader to shift his attention outside himself to the market and focus on what and how much the market is willing to give him at that moment and in the moments to come.

[boru 10]

some levels I'm looking at 15 min chart

[fourtiwinks 10]

0905: My PM chart today..

 

A quibble. It's not what I say, it's what the market says.

 

Haha.. Sure Db. I placed that comment there to remind myself of its importance..

 

0927: NQ seems to be forming a hinge..

 

0929: Just saw Schaefer's hinge.. interesting..

 

0931: The BO of the hinge seems weak.. if It reaches 46 and bounces down, could it be TDTDB?

 

0933: Ok, ONL has been breached.. so selling pressure has exceeded buying pressure..

 

0938: Looks like it was TDTDB over at 38 too.. saw Gamera's prediction at 0936.. gonna observe that..

 

0945: Another hinge? The thin green bar reps what Gamera has mentioned earlier..

 

0951: If NQ stays above PD 50% range in this RET, I would assume buying pressure is stronger..

 

0953: Interesting, NQ bounces off the lower end of the hinge instead..

 

0955: This shows my earlier assumptions were wrong and this is something I must change..

 

0959: A range seems to be forming instead, not a hinge..

 

1001: NQ has broken out of range and 50% ON range..

 

1010: Gamera, thanks for the clarification.. looks like my PM/ON 50% range seems wrong..

(Db's post #36 mentioned about finding "the" range, not just any range.. hope I have internalised this today..)

 

1024: I have corrected my ONH and watching if DL holds..

 

1029: 50% of ON range is holding..

 

1049: The breached ONH seems to be support now. Time for me to leave now..

Adios Db, Gamera, Tim and all..

Edited February 25, 2015 by fourtiwinks

[Schaefer 10]

Trade Date: 02/25/2015

 

Long Term Analysis: The weekly uptrend is still intact, and hovering at the top of the trend channel line. They daily uptrend is still intact, and identical to weekly, however, yesterday was an outside doji bar, and the day before was a small pause bar. The econ news of today, and tomorrow could bring the price out of that range. Either way, I'd be cautious about taking swing trades, until price has cleared the range of the doji bar from yesterday.

 

Medium Term Analysis: Pre market has been within yesterday's RTH range, and forming a triangle in a narrow pre market range. Usually, when we have a narrow, and established pre market range, price tends to bounce off of lows or highs of the opening range, and tests the limits of the previous day's high, and low.

 

10:40am: There's a major construction work going on at my office building, and I could not concentrate on anything So far, price has been stuck in the pre market range.

 

11:40am: Inching closer to previous high of day. A slow grind up like this is best observed through a 60 minute chart.

 

11:50am: Testing the previous day high, now. DB time for you to wake up.

 

12:55pm: Break out??? Not sure, but looking for the right tick.

 

2:13pm: A weak break out, but quickly struck down by the weekly/daily upper trend channel line.

 

2:35pm: Price rejected from the daily trend line, and now testing the 50% level for today's range.

 

2:37pm: Breached the 50% level of the day, and now testing the mean of pre market.

 

2:46pm: All hell broke lose after breaching the 50% level, and created a new low for the

day.

 

4:00pm: The rejection from above the previous day's high, and the daily upper trend line channel was expected, but did not expect the price to retrace all the way to the low of the day and beyond. Today's was a another fine example of LITHA trade, which I failed to capitalize on.

 

Tomorrow, we have a bunch of econ reports, so I'm expecting some movement in price. Even though, price has been rejected off the upper trend channel line, the bounce was weak, and it did not manage to breach the previous day's low. So, I'm not expecting the price to revert to the mean of the channel, yet.

 

Schaefer

Edited February 25, 2015 by Schaefer

[lajax 10]

PM chart 0913

 

A master chart is fine, but for the open, all you need is the last few hours.

 

1419: woud it be consider as a DTDB??

Edited February 25, 2015 by lajax

[Gamera 15]

Still inside yesterdays high low range but over the last couple of hours we seem to have found support on the mean which is also the lower part of the PM range with a top at around 45, there is also an ONH at 49.

 

09:34 Price breaks down from the PM range and below the previous days hi-lo mean.

 

09:35 Ret underway.

 

09:36 Price re-enters PM range.

 

09:36 PM range + breakdown = ONH.

 

09:39 Price choking on PM mean.

 

09:41 Price was unable to move all the way to upper extreme of pm range and now it drops out again.

 

09:43 Could change that possible ONH thought if it pushes past here.

 

09:44 Two attempts to push lower have so far failed with the second one creating a HL, now back in range.

 

09:46 Could be creating a hinge with the LH and HL.

 

09:50 Price looks to have busted the hinge but this is still a lower high than the starting high.

 

09:53 Price makes another stab at the lows and is so far being rejected, might be early to say it but range is looking like 38-45 with PM low as the MP.

 

10:01 BO to the upside with ret underway.

 

10:04 Fourtiwinks, I might be misreading your chart example so I attached mine which might explain better than I can.

 

10:06 Price drops back into PM range, this push higher is almost equidistant from the mean as the drop was to the downside. Range expansion, 48 again - 38.

 

10:09 Where did price get stopped on this most recent drop.

 

10:09 We appear to be testing the ONH.

 

10:13 Price seems to be respecting the ONH but it is not making much of a drop off.

 

10:18 DT at possible range top.

 

10:18 Now we seem to be dropping off, might get a choke as we pass into the PM range.

 

10:23 We seem to be making a deep ret that is struggling to confirm by pushing past the PM range top.

 

10:26 Ret now a rev, looks like we could go back for a test of the highs, note: mulitple overlapping bars show indecision.

 

10:30 Back into PM range.

 

10:32 Price broke the PM mean but failed to get all the way to lower extreme and takes off to 48 range top.

 

10:34 Price seems to be rejecting the move to the upper extreme.

 

10:43 Price pushes higher.

 

10:45 Looking like a BO.

 

10:45 PDH at 55.75

 

10:53 Not acting like a BO yet.

 

11:00 Price broke higher but rejected immediately. DOG?

 

11:03 Price approaching expanded range, resistance becomes support.

 

11:11 Back into range.

 

11:13 And back out again.

 

11:17 This latest rally up has so far ended in another LH, is there a lack of intent from demand to push higher, wait and see.

 

11:21 Whilst we have reached a DT I get the feeling price has to check out PDH before it will do anything else. This feeling is not a trading decision.

 

11:31 Price does indeed break higher and is putting in a ret.

 

As far as rets go, you may want to come up with some criteria for yourself regarding validation/invalidation

 

11:47 I might be wrong, I'll use the 11:28 up bar onwards and break it down, 11:28 bar on my chart closes on its high, 11:29 goes a little higher and closes on its low, the start of a possible ret, the next bar pushes a little lower and a little higher but fails to break previous bar high, 11:31 bar is an inside bar, the next bar equals 11:30 bar high but fails to go any higher and drops lower than said bar, this is a small rev. it fails to break the previous swing low and rallies again, if price had gone higher I would have called that a ret. Dont know if that was a clear definition or not.

 

RET Validate, movement+pullback + continuation beyond the pull back origin.

RET Invalidate, Movement+pullback + inability to move beyond PB origin, also add continuation beyond PB swing point, in which case it becomes a rev.

 

Clear as mud.

 

12:00 Price got to within a tick of PDH and seems to be dropping off.

 

12:30 we seem to be drifting lower now.

 

12:34 Price has approached ONH area.

 

12:50 Price has tagged PDH.

 

12:52 Price pushes higher still but seems to be rejecting.

 

You're about due to go back, aren't you?

 

Yeah back to the "office" this Monday coming, I'm getting the impression everything imaginable will happen starting that same day.

 

You'll be missed. You're doing very well.

 

Thanks, it helps when there are others involved and a few have been doing so which is good to see and hopefully people are getting something out of it. I will be looking in now and again but I cant trade or watch charts, I just hope everyone keeps it up as it could really benefit some of those that get stuck in.

 

As you said in another post "pedal to the metal"

 

13:26 Price has been churning sideways for the last 30 minutes between its high and most recent swing low 13:09. Not much to do until demand or supply takes the reins.

 

13:31 Price broke higher but has quickly come back into this range.

 

13:32 Again the question has to be asked, if this is a BO is it behaving as such.

 

13:34 Price making another push higher.

 

13:36 Stop go stop go from a behaviour standpoint price seems hesitant, but we have been on an slow upward grind for a while now so it might continue upwards like this.

 

13:39 Just as a note, I have not seen any real hype on the grind, its slow and methodical, actually boring might be a better description there is nothing telling me yet that this is it for the move on the upside. We are overbought on the daily so who knows, we could drop off any minute, but, I don't think demand has been exhausted yet.

 

14:00 Price has been slowly dropping off from its 13:34 high at 61.

 

14:16 Price is testing an area that was resistance at 11:51, then support at 13:09 there is no exact price but 54 takes both these swing points in.

 

14:23 Price pushes lower.

 

14:25 Ret back to possible resistance.

 

14:33 Whilst the ret was confirmed price failed to make much of a follow through to the downside, it then went back for another swing at resistance and now seems to be dropping off.

 

14:34 Price now interacting with ONH.

 

14:37 After a brief ret around the ONH price has dropped to the PM range top.

 

14:41 Dropped through PM range and testing lows.

 

14:42 Possible DB a no go as price blows through it.

 

14:43 Climactic drop with possible secondary reaction.

 

14:44 Or breakdown of PM range with retrace.

 

14:59 Price broke lower and came back to the PM low, though it is trying price is struggling to move higher at this point.

 

15:05 Price breaks lower.

 

15:33 Wrapping it up for the night.

 

Gamera.

Edited February 25, 2015 by Gamera

[Wolfhound 10]

I attached my 10 Min chart with lines that I will watch for this mornings open.

 

 

Attached chart of this mornings action:-

 

We moved from the overnight low to above the previous days high during the morning through a series of higher ranges. With no direct trend, it would be difficult for a 1 Min trader to enter and stay in a long unless he took an entry on a reversal at the opening lows.

 

Later in the afternoon we did get a good fast downward trend, if anyone could wait that long and still be ready to jump on the opportunity.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Wolfhound

[gears 10]

My areas of interest for the day…

 

0942 - Saw for myself a very powerful AMT move and the power of LITHA (no I'm not trading/simming). Price hit 45 like a hot potato and made it down to 38. No question that traders weren't liking it down there and they popped back up - but they didn't make it to 45. Another trip down and not quite as low - perhaps forming a hinge or perhaps just hanging out at yesterday's 'home' area for a while. Either way, price will tell us.

Edited February 25, 2015 by gears

[DbPhoenix 42]

A triple top and a triple bottom. There's really nothing to do until traders decide where they want to go.

 

We had 30 people. Where did everybody go?

[youngin 10]

Looks like traders waiting on New Home Sales at 10:00...

 

HS doesn't mean much anymore. I'm surprised they'd wait for it.

Edited February 25, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[gears 10]

A triple top and a triple bottom. There's really nothing to do until traders decide where they want to go.

 

We had 30 people. Where did everybody go?

 

They'll be back now!

[DbPhoenix 42]

While we have a minute, note how price dropped 5pts below the mean of that little range to 38, then 5pts up to 48.

 

So in effect you have a working range of 38 to 48

 

If you want to go long, decide now and decide where

 

The other averages are making this more difficult than it needs to be

[gears 10]

The other averages are making this more difficult than it needs to be

 

What do you mean by "other averages"?

 

ES, YM

[DbPhoenix 42]

H&S for the pattern people. In the works, that is.

 

If you don't have time to do anything about these rejections, don't feel bad. Just let it go and wait for the next op.

 

Eventually they'll have to move. Until then, don't look for trades that aren't there.

 

Pace and activity slowing.

 

Note the ONH

 

I'm fast approaching my boredom threshold. Given that this ret is pretty much invalidated, I'm going to wait for 55.

 

50 is becoming the new 46.

 

If 50 is in fact the new 46, that gives us an upside target of 58-59.

 

 

 

And here we are at 59.

 

I see only Gamera, Schaefer, and lajax are left, which is a shame. But the downside target here is 42. (Not a shame that they're here, but that everyone else is gone.)

 

And we're now oversold at 38. Not a bad afternoon.

 

Next is 35, then 32.

 

A little retrace. I'll exit at 42 if we get there since we're oversold and that was my original target anyway.

 

And here we are at 35.

 

If we reach and get past 32, next is 30.

 

So 42 hasn't been tripped yet. BTW, I'm not using any lines.

 

And 32.

 

I'll take 30 if we get there. After that is 27, and it's just not worth it.

 

Out at 36 for +22. Not bad. Worth the wait anyway.

 

Wrapping it up for today. I'm hungry. Hope those who stuck around got something out of this.

Edited February 25, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Gamera 15]

Thanks for sticking around and explaining things from your point of view today, I was wondering about the 59 level you pointed out.

 

I assumed it was worked out when the ONH was broken then acted as support, if this was correct PM range low (or opening low) to ONH mean would result in a 59 target, but I noticed on ET that this was revised upwards later on which made me think there was something other than range expansion at play.

 

My daily has been slightly overbought for the last couple of days but I went over it and tweaked it slightly for accuracy and the result dropped it in right above 60, is this the reason behind the call, I'm just curious as we definitely got a reaction off that level you shouted out hours before it happened.

 

Thanks again.

Gamera.

 

If it were Friday, I'd give you homework. But since it's only Wednesday . . .

 

The lateral "support" and "resistance" suggested by PDHs and PDLs and ONHs and ONLs are useful largely because even those who trade daily charts can see them. Even those who don't follow the markets at all know about them because they're reported even in the Podunk daily paper. So of course they matter. How could they not?

 

But if you understand AMT, there's a whole 'nother layer that enables you to amaze your friends.

 

Plot an hourly chart of the last week's prices. Include at least the 20th and preferably the 19th. Look at the daily highs. What do you see?

 

Each daily high is higher than the last.

 

Now draw a line across them.

 

Chart attached.

 

I think I see it, if it is right timokrates, I would draw in my lower line slightly differently to take in those 3 or 4 lows whilst the 24th low is left out as it is oversold in my eyes (might be wrong) but this would fit in with it being oversold under 42 as DB mentioned.

 

I was playing around with the diagonals and thought nah cant be that.

 

The upper diagonal would have been shifted off the 23rd high on the 24th, the first break in the morning is overbought the afternoon HH is more or less in line and as price reacts again as if it has found an extreme I would have considered shifting it I think.

 

You guys are getting ahead of yourselves, and if this isn't done deliberately, you'll fuck yourselves up.

 

Remember these?

 

 

 

If I use the high of the 20th to the high on the 23 it projects forward to 57 today and with the low line matched to the 23rd low it gives a target for any drop at 39, whilst the 24th high adjusted ties in with the levels we saw today should I be keeping the originals in place, am I being to precise?

 

I think I am being pedantic and trying to get things to fit in with the commentary. The proper lines if they are right fit pretty well too.

 

Bear with me. You have to get the lines started correctly, as you have done. How price relates to those lines thereafter will tell you whether the instrument is overbought or oversold. Shifting the lines defeats the purpose of drawing them in the first place.

 

Now. Draw your median equidistant between the upper and lower limits you've drawn.

 

Line drawn.

 

OK. That's the "money line", the median. The upper and lower limits are not all that critical. They can be slightly off away from the median or toward the median. What matters is the median, since that represents the "value area". And if you can confirm it with a lateral line, as we can here, either along 49 or 50, then you know approximately how far from the median price can travel either way, as it did today with 60 and 40. If it overshoots, again as it did today when it dropped to 30, so much the better, but at least you have some idea of what to expect.

 

And that is pretty much all there is to it. You may want to reread the AMT section of the pdf. It may make more sense now.

 

Now you can amaze your friends.

 

Thanks for clearing that up, I had no idea there was a channel there so it came as news to me when you called out the highs, guess I have gotten to focused on what is right in front of me that I don't see the bigger picture. I have some reading to do.

 

I keep saying it but thanks again.

 

Gamera

Edited February 25, 2015 by Gamera

[damnpenguins 10]

TC drawn across the recent High's..

[timokrates 10]

You mean something like that?

 

I think I remember that you don't use channels on 60M - only daily and weekly?

 

But in situations like we have on the daily right now, the 60M can be handy?

 

I mean obviously it is. Just a general question...

 

Actually I didn't draw anything at all. I just looked at it. The channel was "there". To ignore it would have been stupid, especially since I am a priest of AMT.

Edited February 25, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Schaefer 10]

Hi DB, just a couple questions. The rejection from the high of the day; I was expecting it, but was not expecting it to go all the way to the low, and create a new low. Did you have any indications, that price might do that, or was it a LITHA trade?

 

LITHA.

 

Second, how do I attach the charts in my post to show up with my posts, instead of attachments at the bottom?

 

When you upload them, they'll show up in a list below your post. Right-click the link and select "copy link address". Then place your cursor where you want the image in your post, click the Image icon above the frame (the one that looks like a postcard), paste the link address into the locator window and click Okay. It will then show up in your post where you had your cursor. Just make sure you don't have two http addresses in the window when you click Okay

 

Thank you for the guidance, today.

 

Schaefer

 

Edit: Got it, thank you.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Schaefer

[DbPhoenix 42]

With regard to my comments to Gamera four up, the "channel" that enabled me to earn so many points today will very likely have evaporated by tomorrow, so don't get too excited. Since we dropped so far below the lower limit, traders may look for value someplace else. Or they may head back to 45. Perhaps the ON will give us a clue. But we may be in the position of just having to follow their trail, which is not nearly as easy as simply buying or selling one extreme or the other.

 

30 was hit on Monday and tested and rejected yesterday, so maybe 30 is something to look at. Again, it depends largely on what happens ON. If price shows no interest in moving back above 42, then we may be in new territory. I find the unanswered questions interesting. Lots of people don't. But that's what makes trading fun for me, or at least engaging.

 

I am hypothesizing that the fact we fell so hard suggests downside from here, but we may just go sideways. I'd be surprised to see us make new highs. But you never know.

 

Judge the market by its own action.

 

In the meantime, look both diagonally and laterally. Price can't hide for very long.

Edited February 26, 2015 by DbPhoenix