Dear Db

[Gringo 10]

For 60m trading, is a steady profit percentage (from quarter to quarter) of 85-90% good?

 

Is that a serious question?

[youngin 10]

Is that a serious question?

 

I may or may not have been fishing for a confidence boost from the teacher

[georg7e 11]

Db,

 

For the purpose of devising REV entry rules in TR's. Does the UL and LL of a TR have to be traded at/near 2 times or is a swing high at 60 and a swing low at 40 enough to enter on the first test of 60 or 40?

 

The upper limit of the range is the level at which buyers are no longer willing to pay the ask. The lower limit is the level at which sellers are no longer willing to lower it. These ranges are provided in my daily posts at ET.

 

If the upper limit of the range is 60 and one wants to enter a reversal at the upper limit, he must first define what constitutes a successful trade and keep and maintain records to determine whether or not his definition is realistic. Is it a 5pt move? Is it a move all the way to the lower limit? His choice. Then he has to keep and maintain records regarding successful entries: is one tick enough? Two? Four? Is eight enough? Too much? At what level is he so late in entering that he is soon or immediately in the red? What criteria must he apply to determine whether or not the trade is still valid and, if not, where and how to exit? All of this must be tested and the trader must not only make choices but stick to them religiously. What somebody else does is irrelevant.

Edited April 4, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[youngin 10]

Do you know where to find Weekly charts of the NQ pre-2009? Or happen to have any screenshots of the pertinent Weekly channels before then?

 

No, but you can get NDX data dating back to '99 at bigcharts.com.

Edited April 10, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[youngin 10]

Are daily channels worth noting to indicate overbought/oversold conditions when trading the 60m? Or should one only note the weekly?

 

I'm struggling to understand if I should use the channels to determine LOLR (and trade only in that direction) or use Daily S/D lines with swing highs and lows as potential LOLR "flip" points.

 

I suppose it would depend on the timeframe. Since October at least, the daily channels haven't lasted long enough to provide OB or OS conditions. Unless you're trying to enter the absolute bottom or top, look for the HL or LH.

 

Remember that if you're not ranging, you're trending, in which case the SLA takes precedence. Don't complicate it with a lot of lines and channels. When the stride is broken, start paying attention. If it's not broken, leave it alone.

 

So are you saying not to worry about Daily S/D lines and just follow price wherever it leads on the 60m using 60m S/D lines?

 

I was trying to filter trades based off the Daily lines and swing highs/lows.

 

If you're focusing on lines rather than price movement, I suggest getting rid of them entirely.

Edited April 19, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[georg7e 11]

Db,

 

This chart is from yesterday, 4/17. I read your comments about the failure at 80, about 7 mins. after the open, on ET. I wasn't sure about posting this chart and asking your advice in that thread, so I'll do it here.

 

I have a yellow SL drawn pre-market, what I'd like to know is, is this a legitimate SL or is it irrelevant?

 

Due to to the up wave from 6:25 to 8:05 and down wave from 8:05 to 9:30, which can have their own DL/SL, does all the action below the SL qualify as being part of a down trend, for context purposes heading into the open?

 

I know from studying, to use the 60m for context and the 5m or 15m to find the range, but this SL cannot be drawn on the 60m.

 

Btw, thanks for suggesting ET, there is alot of really fine info there regarding this method, I've been reading and studing for weeks.

 

Your assistance is greatly appreciated.

 

I sometimes wish I'd never brought up the lines as people cling to them like roots to prevent them from falling down the cliff. Unfortunately, they're necessary in order to talk about trends, trend channels, and ranges. But take care in relying on them to tell you what you ought to be seeing in price behavior.

 

The story here has nothing to do with lines per se; it is the failure of traders to get past the halfway level of the downmove (which is almost to the tick where price reverses). As your yellow line can't even be drawn until the trade is gone, you're forced to enter later, at 80 or less, or even 76 or less, and the longer you wait, the more vulnerable you are.

 

Try to avoid drawing lines unless they are absolute necessary. Focus instead on what traders are doing, or trying to do, particularly if they are failing in their efforts.

Edited April 19, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[eminiman414 10]

Keeping on topic of 80. First I'll say every bone in my body wanted to SAR my long as price was choking as we approached and at 80 however I didn't because I don't really have a set plan regarding SAR's. Can a SAR be a "feel" sort of thing? I mean I had reasons why I considered it but to try to backtest something like that I find rather difficult because it hardly ever "looks" the same. Also this was in hindsight but we had that daily swing high at 4380 as well with that range btw 4380 and 4260ish. Often I find price "re-enters" a range and re-tests the limit. That being 80. Price also stalled at roughly the midpoint btw 4380-4260 later on. I am seeing bunnies here? And what's your opinion on the SAR tactic? I didn't notice 80 from the daily until after the fact and had I, I may have been more apt to reverse but again no hard plan. I suppose with better prep I could have said "if price chokes at 80 SAR"??? Is that good enough? The SAR and the scratch are the last pieces of the puzzle for me.

 

I had asked 40d but I apparently missed all the nonsense and see why I did not get a response lol. You guys are saints.

 

I don't quite know how to answer this as there was no reason to be long in the first place. Even if you were trading at 0700, one cannot expect a V-reversal off a 50pt climax. If I were going to go long at all, I'd go long off the test (there wasn't one). As it was, I waited to see how far price got. As it reversed almost to the tick at the halfway level, a short was called for. And that was that.

 

Thanks for the response. As long as the short was justified I'm good with that. I was long the higher low off 67ish.

Edited April 19, 2015 by eminiman414

[youngin 10]

You say if I'm focusing on the lines instead of price action to get rid of them completely, but I'm using the lines (in this context, the Daily S/D lines) as a means of illustrating and referring to the Daily trend (LOLR/Buying Pressure/Selling Pressure). If that's not following price action please correct me.

 

What I'm trying to ask is if only taking Hourly trades in the direction of the Daily LOLR (as illustrated by the Daily S/D lines) is a prudent measure. My thinking is the better course of action is to follow the higher timeframe trend, since more traders are likely looking at it.

 

You're asking for some sort of rule, and whatever rules you follow should be the result of your experience, or at least your testing. Without a chart, all I can provide is gurubabble.

Edited April 19, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Guest Danny_Ocean]

When trading the Hourly, do you only trade during the high volume hours on the NQ? I find that most of the big moves originate between 8:00EST and 16:00EST.

 

Or are you somehow perpetually awake and trade 24/5?

 

The purpose of trading the hourly is so that you don't have to babysit it. Once you're found your range, traded the exit, and, if you can't be there, set your stop, that's that.

Edited April 19, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Guest Danny_Ocean]

Does a retrace off a "springboard" AKA a hinge or lateral trading range mean that it is a higher probability retrace than one that isn't? I know in your PDF you said Wyckoff focused on stocks that were on the springboard...

 

Do you mean isn't a retracement, or is a retracement but isn't off a range? I can't say, but it's easy enough to test if it matters to you.

 

As for your earlier question about hourlies, here's a chart from yesterday evening/today.

 

 

SL break, long first retracement.

 

I get the SL break, first retracement thing. That's just following the drill according to SLA. No problem there. What I'm wondering is since that first retracement occurred at 22:00/23:00 EST, would you still take it? What if it had occurred at 3:00EST or some other odd hour of the night?

 

Say it makes a second or third retracement after 8:00 or 9:00, would that be considered "chasing" a trade? I find it hard to reconcile missing out on big moves just because I wasn't awake to enter the trade. Not to mention those are low volume hours, and it would be hard to enter the market with size without too much slippage.

 

I have a feeling the answer is "testing will tell you" but I just want to get your input considering your extensive experience.

 

Not everybody who trades this lives here. Quite a few are in Europe, and they're in a position to take the trades that are to us in the middle of the night.

 

Theoretically, yes, you should take the first one. Practically, that's silly. Of course you have to take the second. Is it chasing? Technically, yes. But given the context, the probability of success is far greater than of failure. And if you have determined a comfortable stop, then go with it. But the advantage of waiting is that you can monitor the second entry in real time and exit the trade if it doesn't go the way you expect it to.

 

Every bar interval has its advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of the hourly is not having to screw around with all the little twists and turns. The disadvantage is getting in and staying in. For that you have to be very good at reading what's going on. That does take time, but with replay, that time can be cut drastically.

Edited May 5, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[BabyT 10]

DbPhonix

 

I just read an article from one proprietary trader in my country.

 

His style is daytrade and as I know he can make money in his career for a long time.

 

He said that his method begin with

 

1. find the exit point

 

2. calculate risk/reward

 

3. find the entry point and think about contract quantity................

 

He think much about risk, and think lesser about entry method.

 

He take many rounds in a day.

 

.........................

 

I feel that with your teaching, we trade with the price behaviour.

 

We enter when price show some behavior that we've test and research.

 

We exit when price move to the exit point of our plan.

 

You don't teach much about risk even though I remember that you've talk about Mamis's book.

 

....................

 

Could you please give some comment about this trader's method above.

 

Thank you very much, Sir.

 

Risk management is built into the SLA: exit when the line is broken. If stopped out of two successive trades, stop trading.

 

Re this trader's method, it's too general to comment on, e.g., "cut your losses short and let your profits run". None of that answers the question of "how". If he's taking "many trades in a day", he's probably scalping, and the SLA is inappropriate for scalping as it makes as few trades as possible, preferably one or two.

Edited July 23, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[BabyT 10]

Thank you very much. DbPhoenix.

 

Have a good day.

[goodoboy 10]

DbPhoenix.

 

And make sure you download the most recent edition of the SLA/AMT. Pay particular attention to Appendix F and the Afterword.[/color]

 

Hello DbPhoenix,

 

Where can I locate the recently edition of the SLA/AMT and Appendix F?

 

Thank you so much for your efforts.

 

See this stickie. The various drafts of the SLA are floating around. There is a fee, however, for the finished product. But if you are interested only in Appendix F, I'll send you a copy upon request.

Edited August 9, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

Hello dbphoenix.

 

What would you suggest to someone wo wants to start from scratch, like a complete newbie? Things like books i should read, websites i should visit, things of this nature?

 

Thank you in advance. There is a lot of deception in the world but when i read your post on this thread i feel like your honest and successful. I registered just so i could ask you this

 

Well, I wrote "Developing A Plan" for those who are only thinking about starting as well as those who have thought about it and want to get on with the process of cobbling together a plan. This is also part of my book.

 

Websites? No. Books? Other than my own, of course, about the only books I can recommend to a beginner are The General Semantics of Wall Street by John Magee (don't spend tons of money on this; try to get it from your library; you might also find a pdf of it floating around), The Nature of Risk by Justin Mamis, and How To Make Money In Stocks by Wm O'Neil (I recommend the first edition because later ones became increasingly obnoxious about pushing "Investor's Business Daily"). Avoid anything that claims to be able to tell you "how to trade". Granted mine offers a simple approach to trading price, but it is only one option among several that one has available after having gone through the process of developing a plan (one may, for example, decide after having gone through that process that his future lies with MACD divergences, in which case I'll provide him with a box lunch and my best wishes as I send him on his way). There are other things in it -- particularly the appendix on fear -- that will be useful to just about anybody.

 

The best teacher is the market. Study the market. If you don't know what to look at, or for, "Developing A Plan" will be useful as well as HTMMIS. If you don't understand what you're looking at, much less what to look for, you'll be susceptible to every pitch out there: the books, the courses, the dvds, the software plugins, and all the rest of it. Above all, be skeptical of everything and everybody. Only the market can be relied upon. Only the market will not lie.

 

Do not even think about beginning without a plan. To do so invites failure, and once that cycle begins, fear busts in and drives its hooks into your back. At that point, you've got a long, rough, and extremely difficult road ahead of you, all of which can be avoided by putting your eagerness to trade on the back burner and instead studying and practicing. As for the plan, you can put together a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan without spending a dime. Investing.com, for example, has free live charts that you can use to observe price movements in real time, though whether the feed is real-time or delayed isn't particularly important at this level as long as it's moving. NinjaTrader offers free replay functionality (which is not to say that I recommend NT as a broker; the onslaught of emails you'll receive are an unintended turnoff, and you may eventually decide to categorize them all as spam; even so, replay will enable you to test out your plan).

 

If the study and the practice are intolerable, then you will very likely fail. They won't take forever. Perhaps, with replay, only a few months. Otherwise you may go on for two or three or five years or more without even being able to do more than breakeven, if that, and perhaps that only after having blown through several accounts. A few months of study and practice are a cheap price to pay.

Edited January 2, 2016 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'll take a look at your developing a plan [pdf]. I just got done reading the [SLA pdf] and understood maybe 80% of it. In the book you quote Richard Wyckoff a lot, i could read his book eventually.

 

The O'neil book you recommended though it has stocks in the title can still be useful for forex and futures, right?

 

I thought i could start with an hourly chart and 15 minute while paying attention to the trend in the daily and weekly and the support and resistance levels.

 

I am a poor person so futures is not an option right now to start with because the required account size. I heard of a site called Nadex and thought i could start there so i already deposited a little over $300 there. I'm not going to trade with real money though until i know i'm ready, and i know if i can't make money in demo i won't make money live.

 

Eventually i would love to make a living trading, but know that i can't do it overnight.

 

You mentioned falling for bad courses and stuff so i thought i'd mention that i did find good reviews on a course by Chris Capre from 2ndskiesforex where he teaches price action. Based on your response i would guess you wouldn't recommend this.

 

Trading seems complicated, but i imagine for people who have found the truth it is simple. I got sucked into the whole indicator thing and it wasn't doing very well so i'm glad i found this thread, because i want to start from scratch, because i feel like i know nothing.

 

1. The SLA is for those who already have a pretty good idea of what they want, or who have experienced repeated failures and have a real good idea of what they don't want.

 

2. O'N's book applies to any auction market. I urge you, however, to avoid forex.

 

3. If by "start" you mean what you're going to observe during the observation phase, I suggest you look at something smaller. There's a lot going on in even a 15m bar that you'll never see if you don't look at anything smaller.

 

4. With all due respect to Mr. Capre, there are no "price action traders" of whom I'm aware that focus on price action without the aid of indicators and/or patterns. I wish there were. Then of course there's the $500 each for his courses.

 

You should also know that every "price action trader" of whom I'm aware -- including Seiden, Beggs, and Brooks -- derive everything they have from Wyckoff. This is not a personal criticism, just an acknowledgement of the work done by the real pioneers: Wyckoff, Livermore, Gartley, Schabacker, Hamilton, Rhea, et al. As for patterns, a surprising number come from -- of all places -- Oliver Velez (yes, the much maligned Oliver Velez; go figure).

 

If you've already experienced failure, you're already beginning behind the starting block. Be very careful. Study the market. Determine for yourself where and when and how price goes up and down. It's not complicated. You don't have to spend hundreds and thousands of dollars on books and courses. The charts below were annotated by a nine-year-old girl.

Edited December 9, 2016 by DbPhoenix

[OmDBnamah 10]

Namo Gurudev,

 

Yesterday I spent a couple of hours going through the pitchfork stuff out of interest. I was amazed, surprised and pleased with myself that the idea of blindly following some points on the chart which might come in future and guessing which ones work was not only uninteresting to me but my mind kind of repelled it.....It is all because of you....thanks for making me into a thinking trader rather than wishing one....

It had mean reversion at it's core so my question is if mean reversion is true and what it is and why it (scientific) should work in a market (emotional world)...

 

Regards,

K

[Gringo 10]

Namo Gurudev,

 

Yesterday I spent a couple of hours going through the pitchfork stuff out of interest. I was amazed, surprised and pleased with myself that the idea of blindly following some points on the chart which might come in future and guessing which ones work was not only uninteresting to me but my mind kind of repelled it.....It is all because of you....thanks for making me into a thinking trader rather than wishing one....

It had mean reversion at it's core so my question is if mean reversion is true and what it is and why it (scientific) should work in a market (emotional world)...

 

Regards,

K

 

Breaking away from the old isn't usually a clean process. I also went through it where older way of doing things and methods would start putting doubt in my mind. I would revert to reading other material but the greatest gains came when I just didn't go back to anything non W or Db.

 

I took a few years off to clear my mind of conflicting ideas and as my memory faded I returned to W and Db. That's when it started getting easier. I still don't go back to the old stuff. Getting rid of MA's was a bit scary for me. They were in play from Weinstein to O'neil and all other technical books. It's at this point I started to fly and felt the freedom. It is at this point the SLA-AMT also simplified things to almost a science. It is also at this point I became profitable.

 

Gringo

[Guest Money Trust]

So, this is where you guys have gone to?

[rabcnesbit 10]

Dear Db,

 

A man with your vast experience and knowledge, I would appreciate your thoughts/advice/experience on the most effective money management/profit taking/loss limiting you have found to work wellmwith this method - SLA/AMT, or that you use generally in your trading.

 

Move stop to breakeven and leave postion to run or die?

Close half at breakeven and leave the other half to run?

Close half at a specified target (breakeven and some) and leave other half to run?

 

Or any other method(s) you use if you do not use any of the above. Many thanks

 

The "most effective" anything will depend on the individual and on what he trades. The characterization process, risk, and the testing protocols are addressed in the book.

Edited October 9, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[timokrates 10]

Hi DB,

 

I'm not able to respond to your post on T2W, so I will ask my questions here.

 

In your post you describe the more or less immediate entry at range extremes. A few questions were coming up on my side, I try to keep them brief...

 

1. Do you wait for at least a tiny bit of confirmation (test on the 5Sec for example) or do you "simply" enter because you are at the top or bottom? Or do you (through testing) have defined an area depending on the size of the range, where you are ready to enter an order if price gets there - or do you place them even beforehand?

 

2. Do you have expectations on how price has to move - and that it has to move immediately in the anticipated direction?

 

3. Do you use a kind of micro managing telling you to be ready to get out? I have marked minor levels as at least a first reference (red dashed lines LSH/LSH)

 

4. In terms of exits I'm aware that one has to get out before initiating another trade. That would mean that in terms of AMT the targets are pretty much set if one is ignoring the context completely?

 

In general I see the value of AMT and with some serious testing the insecurity will maybe disappear - and yes of course, there are losses...

 

Thanks in advance!

Edited October 14, 2015 by timokrates
more questions...:-)

[DbPhoenix 42]

If the trader had been short, he'd be out at the break of the daily SL, particularly if he were a beginner. However, the daily never provided a long signal and as yet has not provided a new short signal. If he's trading the hourly and had gone long after the SL break, he'd already be stopped out. If he'd taken a short last nite, his trade would be in limbo.

[timokrates 10]

Thanks for your reply, DB.

 

Did you see the pic attached?

 

All the questions were related to tactics playing the EU morning range.

 

Yes, I know context is important - but could the context also be interpreted like on here...

 

Channel up potential hinge?

 

But in general, in a range trading reversals one would focus on the extremes and take the trade as it comes. That was more the direction of my question.

 

Cheers!

[DbPhoenix 42]

A long is taken if and when price breaks through the SL and subsequently retraces.

 

A short is taken if price fails to break through the SL and subsequently retraces.

 

The cue is taken off the daily and implemented on the hourly.

Edited January 2, 2016 by DbPhoenix