Econ Data & Political Events - The Week Ahead

[titi1909 10]

Sunday 28 September

 

1615 GMT: CHICAGO - Former U.S. Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke speaks before the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting in Chicago

SWITZERLAND - Referendum election

 

 

Monday 29 September

 

 

GENEVA - Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan to give speech at Club Suisse de la Presse ROME

13:00 GMT: US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois

16:00 GMT: ROME - ECB governing council member Ignazio Visco will be present at a book launch event on "cognitive economics"

 

Germany: Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep) Prev 0.0 (0.9) cons -0.1 (0.7)

Germany: Bavaria CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.6)

Germany: Hesse CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.7) cons-0.1 (0.6)

Germany: North Rhine Westphalia CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (1.1) cons-0.1 (1.1)

Germany: Brandenburg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.9) cons-0.1 (0.9)

Germany: Saxony CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.8)

Germany: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.7)

Germany: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.8)

Belgium: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (-0.4)

07:00 GMT: Spain: Preliminary HICP, % y/y Sep Prev -0.5 cons -0.3

07:30 GMT: Sweden: Retail Sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug Prev -0.7 (2.3) cons 0.6 (3.4)

09:00 GMT: E18: Industrial confidence, index Sep prev -5.3 cons-5.8

09:00 GMT: E18: 'Final' consumer confidence, index Sep prev -11.4 P cons -11.4

12:30 GMT: US: Personal income, % m/m Aug prev 0.2 cons 0.3

12:30 GMT: US: Personal spending, % m/m Aug prev -0.1 cons 0.4

12:30 GMT: US: PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev 0.1 (1.6) cons -0.1 (1.4)

12:30 GMT: US: Core PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev 0.1 (1.5) cons0.0 (1.4)

14:00 GMT: US: Pending home sales, % m/m Aug prev 3.3 cons-0.5

21:45 GMT: New Zealand: Building consents, % m/m Aug prev 0.1 cons 0.0

23:05 GMT: UK: GfK consumer confidence, index Sep prev 1 cons 0

23:30 GMT: Japan: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 3.8 cons 3.8

23:30 GMT: Japan: Jobs/applicants ratio Aug prev 1.10 cons 1.10

23:30 GMT: Japan: Real household spending, % y/y Aug prev -5.9 cons -3.6

23:50 GMT: Japan: Industrial production, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.2

 

 

Tuesday 30 September

 

LONDON - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles speaks at London School of Economics and Political Science

OSLO - Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen gives a speech at a seminar arranged by the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) at Nordea in Oslo

Romania: Interest rate announcement, % Sep prev 3.25 cons 3.00

05:30 GMT: India: RBI reverse repo rate, % Sep prev 7.00 prev 7.00

05:30 GMT: India: RBI repo rate, % Sep prev 8.00 – cons 8.00

07:00 GMT: E18: ECB Executive Board member Lautenschläger speaks on bank regulation in Austria

14:45 GMT: US: Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington

 

00:00 GMT: New Zealand: Business confidence, index Sep prev 24.4

01:30 GMT: Australia: RBA private-sector credit, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.5

01:30 GMT: Japan: Wages per worker, % y/y Aug prev 2.4 cons 1.0

01:45 GMT: China: Final HSBC manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.5P cons 50.5

06:00 GMT: Germany: Retail sales sa, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev-1.1 (1.0) cons 0.5 (0.3)

06:00 GMT: UK: Nationwide house price Index, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.8 (11.0) cons 0.5 (10.4)

06:45 GMT: France: Hhsld consum. goods, % m/m (y/y) Jul/Aug prev 0.9 (1.8) cons -0.1 (1.3

07:00 GMT: Swi: KoF leading indicator Sep prev 99.5 cons 99.0

07:55 GMT: Germany: Unemployment change (000s, sa); (rate, %) Sep prev 2 (6.7) cons -2 (6.7)

08:00 GMT: Italy: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 12.6 cons 12.5

08:30 GMT: UK: GDP final release, % q/q (y/y) Q2 prev 0.8 (3.2) cons 0.8 (3.2)

08:30 GMT: UK: Current account, £bn Q2 prev -18.5 cons -16.8

09:00 GMT: E18: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 11.5 cons 11.5

09:00 GMT: Italy: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev -0.2 (-0.2) cons 1.9 (-0.1)

09:00 GMT: Italy: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.2 (-0.1) cons -0.2 (0.0)

09:00 GMT: E18: "Flash" HICP, % y/y Sep prev 0.4 cons 0.3

09:00 GMT: E18: 'Eurostat' core (HICP x fd, alc, tob, ene), % (y/y) Sep prev 0.9 cons 0.9

12:30 GMT: Canada: GDP, % m/m (y/y) Jul prev 0.3 (3.1) cons 0.2

12:30 GMT: Canada: Industrial product price, % m/m Aug prev -0.3 cons -0.2

13:45 GMT: US: Chicago PMI index Sep prev 64.3 cons 61.5

14:00 GMT: US: Consumer confidence index Sep prev 92.4 cons 92.4

23:00 GMT: Korea: CPI, % y/y Sep prev 1.4 cons 1.5

23:30 GMT: Australia: AIG/PWC manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 47.3 cons

23:50 GMT: Japan: Tankan DI for mftg/non-mftg, index Q3 prev 12/19 cons 10/17

 

 

Wednesday 01 October

 

Italy: Deadline for Government to present new GDP, deficit and debt forecasts to cabinet

12:15 GMT: Germany: Chancellor Merkel speaks at the annual conference of the BGA association of exporters and wholesellers in Berlin

 

00:00 GMT: Australia: RP Data-Rismark house price, % m/m Sep prev 1.1 cons

00:00 GMT: Korea: Exports, % y/y Sep prev -0.1 cons 6.5

01:00 GMT: China: NBS manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 51.1 cons 51.0

01:30 GMT: Australia: Retail sales, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.4

05:00 GMT: Japan: Auto sales, % y/y Sep prev-5.0 cons

06:30 GMT: Australia: Commodity price index, % y/y Sep prev -11.5 cons

06:30 GMT: Sweden: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 51.0 cons 51.8

07:13 GMT: Spain: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.8 cons52.8

07:30 GMT: Swi: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.9 cons52.0

07:43 GMT: Italy: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 49.8 cons49.6

07:48 GMT: France: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 48.8P cons48.8

07:53 GMT: Germany: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.3P cons50.3

07:58 GMT: E18: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.5P cons50.5

08:28 GMT: UK: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.5 cons 52.6

12:15 US: ADP private payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 204 cons 204

13:30 GMT: Singapore: PMI, index Sep prev 49.7 cons

13:45 GMT: US: Final Markit PMI, index Sep prev 57.9 cons

14:00 GMT: US: ISM manufacturing index Sep prev 59.0 cons 58.5

14:00 GMT: US: Construction spending, % m/m Aug prev 1.8 cons 0.4

 

Thursday 02 October

 

05:15 GMT: Australia: RBA Annual report

08:30 GMT:. LONDON - Bank of England Financial Policy Committee quarterly policy statement

11:45 GMT: E18: ECB Interest rate announcement, % Oct prev 0.05 cons

12:30 GMT: E18: ECB Press conference

17:00 GMT: US: Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Georgia

22:30 GMT: TUPELO, United States - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard participates in event: "A Conversation with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard" on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in Tupelo

RICHMOND – Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy hold two-day conference on "The Labor Market After the Great Recession" (to Oct. 3).

ALESUND, Norway - Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen and Norges Bank Investment Management Deputy Chief Executive Officer Trond Grande address Norges Bank's regional network.

 

01:00 GMT: Australia: HIA new home sales, % m/m Aug prev -5.7

01:00 GMT: New Zealand: Commodity prices, % m/m Sep prev -3.3

01:30 GMT: Australia: Trade balance, AUD mn Aug prev -1359 cons -850

01:30 GMT: Australia: Building approvals, % m/m Aug prev 2.5 cons 1.0

08:30 GMT: UK: Construction PMI Sep prev 64.0 cons 63.5

09:00 GMT: E18: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.1 (-1.1) cons -0.1 (-1.2)

12:30 GMT: US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 27-Sep prev 293 (299) cons 300

14:00 GMT: US: Factory orders, %m/m Aug prev 10.5 cons -9.0

23:30 GMT: Australia: AIG/CBA services PSI, index Sep prev 49.4

 

Friday 3 October

 

KRISTIANSAND, Norway - Norges Bank Deputy Governor Jon Nicolaisen and Norges Bank Investment Management Chief Risk Officer Jan Thomsen address Norges Bank's regional network in Kristiansand.

10:00 GMT: Germany: Chancellor Merkel speaks at Day of German Unity; Hanover Congress Centrum

01:00 GMT: China: NBS non-manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 54.4 cons

04:58 GMT: Ireland: Services PMI, index Sep prev 62.5 cons 61.7

06:30 GMT: Sweden: Services PMI, index Sep prev 54.2 cons

07:00 GMT: Turkey: CPI, % y/y Sep prev 9.5 cons 9.5

07:13 Spain: Services PMI, index Sep prev 58.1 cons 57.3

07:30 GMT: Sweden: Service production, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.7 (2.0)

07:43 GMT: Italy: Services PMI, index Sep prev 49.8 cons 49.3

07:48 GMT: France: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 49.4P cons 49.4

07:53 GMT: Germany: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 55.4P cons 55.4

07:58 GMT: E18: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 52.8P cons 52.8

07:58 GMT: E18: Final composite PMI, index Sep prev 52.3P cons 52.3

08:00 GMT: Norway: Registered unemployment rate, % Sep prev 2.9 cons 2.7

08:28 GMT: UK: Services PMI Sep prev 60.5 cons 59.0

09:00 GMT: E18: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.4 (0.8) cons 0.1 (0.7)

12:30 GMT: Canada: Int'l merchandise trade, $ bn Aug prev 2.6 cons 1.5

12:30 GMT: US: Trade balance, $ bn Aug prev -40.5 cons -40.7

12:30 GMT: US: Non-farm payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 142 cons 210

12:30 GMT: US: Private non-farm payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 134 cons 198

12:30 GMT: US: Unemployment rate, % Sep prev 6.1 cons 6.1

12:30 GMT: US: Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.2 (2.1) cons 0.2 (2.2)

12:30 GMT: US: Average weekly hours Sep prev 34.5 cons 34.5

14:00 GMT: US: ISM non-manufacturing index Sep prev 59.6 cons 58.5

[titi1909 10]

October 2014 Seasonal

[titi1909 10]

GBP/USD-Decent UK jobs data could lend support

UK jobs & earnings figures due 0830GMT, 24 hours after soft UK CPI

Better than expected data could spur some profit-taking on GBP shorts

ILO jobless rate f/c 6.1%. Claimant count f/c -35k. Earnings f/c +0.7%

1.5878 = 11mth low for cable in Asia, 1.5920 = ensuing high water-mark

Offers tipped near 1.5950 (1.5953 = Oct 3 low, after strong US jobs data)

Cable was trading on 1.60 handle into 1.2% UK CPI shock

 

 

ORDERS-

EUR/USD a yard of 1.2605 and 1.27 expiries

EUR/USD bids 1.2620, 1.2600-10, stops, offers 1.2680, 1.2695-00

USD/JPY bids 106.75-80, 106.50-60, offers 107.60, 107.75-80

USD/CHF bids 0.9520, 0.9500, offers 0.9570, 0.9590-00

EUR/JPY bids 135.00-10, stops, offers 135.90-00, 136.20-25, 136.40-50

 

OPTIONS-Larger DTCC expiries for NY cut

AUD/USD: 0.8800 (329M).

EUR/USD: 1.2600 (367M), 1.2605 (1BLN), 1.2610 (353M)

1.2675-50 (300M), 1.2700 (1.24BLN), 1.2715 (750M)

EUR/GBP: 0.7960 (720M)

USD/JPY: 107.00 (850M), 107.20 (1BLN), 108.10-15 (600M)

[titi1909 10]

EURUSD continues to correct higher, but we still look for resistance at 1.2996/3001 to turn the trend lower again.

GBPUSD above 1.6128 would allow a test of 1.6228 and through it is needed for a base.

USDJPY ideally stays capped below key resistance at 107.50/58.

NZDUSD spotlight stays on the downtrend and price resistance at .7987/99.

AUDUSD remains in a broad sideways range.

EURJPY immediate risk stays marginally lower while capped below 136.58/59.

USDCAD ideally holds above 1.1161/59 to keep its immediate uptrend.

 

 

Today: ECB's Coeure:

 

• Start to purchase assets within days

• Expects stronger take-up at Dec TLTRO. Sept take-up disappointed

• Sees positive euro zone growth in Q3, Q4

• EUR value not a monetary policy objective

• Governing council will take additional measures if needed

 

Today: ECB’s Nowotny

 

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Differnt Dynamic In Us, Europe To Have Impact On Exchange Rates

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Weaker Euro Tends To Boost Euro Zone Economy, Help Raise Inflation

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Countries Can Get More Time To Meet Deficit Targets Should They Adopt Structural Reforms

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Interest Rates Cannot Go Much Lower

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Austrian Banks Should Do Well In Stress Tests, One Bank Has Taken Precautionary Measures

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Uncertainty Expected To Be Reduced In November With New Banking Supervision, More Potential For Lending

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Situation With Banks Massively Better Than During Financial Crisis

• Ecb's Nowotny Says Nonsense To Speak Of Ecb As Bad Bank Amid Discussion Of Abs Purchase Programme

 

 

EUR/GBP-Dovish Haldane supports, 0.7985 resistance

BoE chief economist's dovish steer lends support to cross

Haldane unlikely to join Weale & McCafferty in voting for hike anytime soon

Minutes from October's MPC meeting will be published next week (Oct 22)

Dovish shift in UK rate expectations after Tuesday's CPI downside surprise

EUR/GBP offers touted at 0.7985 (rally high from Thurs 0.7948 low) & 0.80

 

ORDERS-

EUR/USD bids, 1.2780 and 1.2740-50

EUR/USD offers 1.2850, 1.2880-90, Opt Exp Incl a yard of 1.2740-50s

USD/JPY bids 105.80, 105.50-60, offers 106.50, 106.90-00

USD/CHF 0.9400, 0.9385-90, offers 0.9475-80

EUR/JPY bids 135.50-60, 135.40, 135.20, 135.00-10, offers 136.40-50

AUD/USD bids 0.8730, 0.8700-05, offers 0.8800, 0.8825-30, 0.8840-50

[titi1909 10]

ORDERS-EUR/USD bids 1.2770, 1.2735-40, 1.2715-20

* EUR/USD Offers 1.2850, 1.2880-90, 1.2900, stops above

* USD/JPY bids 106.20, 106.00, offers 107.00, 107.20-30, 107.50

* USD/CHF 0.9400, 0.9385-90, 0.9365-70, offers 0.9450, 0.9475-80

* EUR/JPY bids 136.20, 136.00, 135.75-80, offers 136.80, 137.00, 137.10

* AUD/USD bids 0.8770, 0.8730-40, offers 0.8830, 0.8840-50

* USD/CAD bids 1.1250-60, 1.1220-30 offers 1.1290-00, 1.1325-30

 

 

GBP/USD-Offers touted pre-1.62, stops above

* Cable offers are touted ahead of 1.62, with stops tipped above the figure

* 1.6179 = Monday's high, 1.6186 = Asia high, 1.6189 = 30DMA

* 1.62 = 50% of 1.6525-1.5875. More stops tipped above 1.6226 (Oct 9 top)

* 1.6151 (Mon Ldn session high) is now a support level. 1.6153 = Asia low

 

 

 

OPTIONS-Larger DTCC expiries for NY cut

* AUD/USD: 0.8650 (323M), 0.8800 (139M). NZD/USD: 0.8105 (846M)

* USD/CAD: 1.1150 (335M), 1.1250 (190M)

* EUR/USD: 1.2700 (2.1BLN), 1.2750 (1BLN), 1.2800 (1.6BLN)

* USD/JPY: 106.25 (300M), 107.00 (885M), 107.50 (682M)

[titi1909 10]

NZDUSD Long Signal from CFTC Commitment of Traders Report

 

Very few times - historically - commercials (hedgers) have turned net long NZDUSD - as per the CFTC commitment of traders report which is published every Friday.

 

And on all of these instances (when they turn long) except one, the pair NZDUSD has formed a base and rallied higher. (In the chart below, the yellow line is NZDUSD weekly and white line is commercial position).

 

As per the latest COT report, commercials' position is 5865 long, which is almost at historical high. So, this signals time for NZDUSD to form a base above the strong support level of 0.7700 and rally northwards.

[shuvo7748 10]

I found that

 

07:00 GMT SYDNEY – RBA Head of Financial Stability Luci Ellis will attend the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) panel discussion in Sydney

 

18:30 GMT LONDON – Bank of England Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik speaks at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

 

TORONTO – Toronto Global Forum (to Oct. 28). Canadian Finance Minister Joe Oliver, Enbridge CEO Al Monaco and Caisse CEO Michael Sabia speak on “Rethinking Growth”.

 

STOCKHOLM – Swedish Central Bank holds monetary policy meeting (to Oct 28).

 

 

 

 

 

09:00 GMT Germany: IFO business climate, index Oct Prev 104.7 Cons 104.05

 

09:00 GMT Germany: IFO current assessment, index Oct Prev 110.5 Cons 110.0

 

09:00 GMT Germany: IFO business expectations, index Oct Prev 99.3 Cons 99.3

 

09:00 GMT E18: M3, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.4 (2.0) Cons (2.2)

 

09:00 GMT E18: Loans to private sector (adjusted), % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (-0.9)

 

11:00 GMT UK: CBI distributive trades, total sales Oct Prev 31 Cons 25

 

14:00 GMT US: Pending home sales, % m/m Sep Prev -1.0 Cons 1.0

 

You can take a look at Econ Data & Political Events - The Week Ahead

[titi1909 10]

yes that's me on that forum and I have no idea how to change my username here.

 

I found that

 

07:00 GMT SYDNEY – RBA Head of Financial Stability Luci Ellis will attend the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) panel discussion in Sydney

 

18:30 GMT LONDON – Bank of England Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik speaks at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

 

TORONTO – Toronto Global Forum (to Oct. 28). Canadian Finance Minister Joe Oliver, Enbridge CEO Al Monaco and Caisse CEO Michael Sabia speak on “Rethinking Growth”.

 

STOCKHOLM – Swedish Central Bank holds monetary policy meeting (to Oct 28).

 

yes that's me on that forum and I have no idea how to change my username here.

 

 

 

09:00 GMT Germany: IFO business climate, index Oct Prev 104.7 Cons 104.05

 

09:00 GMT Germany: IFO current assessment, index Oct Prev 110.5 Cons 110.0

 

09:00 GMT Germany: IFO business expectations, index Oct Prev 99.3 Cons 99.3

 

09:00 GMT E18: M3, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.4 (2.0) Cons (2.2)

 

09:00 GMT E18: Loans to private sector (adjusted), % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (-0.9)

 

11:00 GMT UK: CBI distributive trades, total sales Oct Prev 31 Cons 25

 

14:00 GMT US: Pending home sales, % m/m Sep Prev -1.0 Cons 1.0

 

You can take a look at Econ Data & Political Events - The Week Ahead

[titi1909 10]

Monday 03 November

 

 

08:00 GMT MAINZ, Germany - Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret will speak at a conference in Mainz

12:00 GMT E18: ECB Vice-President Constâncio speaks at CEMFI in Madrid

14:00 GMT E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy speaks at European Parliament in Brussels

14:30 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois

17:35 GMT TORONTO - Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks to the Canadian Council for Public-Private Partnerships

17:40 GMT US: Dallas Fed President Fisher (FOMC voter) speaks in New York

00:30 GMT Australia: Building approvals, % m/m Sep Prev 3.0 Cons -1.0

00:30 GMT Australia: Job advertisements, % m/m Oct Prev Prev 0.9

01:00 GMT China: NBS non-manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 54.0

01:45 GMT China: Final HSBC manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.4P Cons 50.4

07:30 GMT Sweden: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 53.4- Cons 52.5

08:00 GMT UK: Halifax house price index, % m/m (3m/y) Oct Prev 0.6 (9.6) Cons (9.1)

08:13 GMT Spain: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 52.6 Cons 52.30

08:30 GMT Swi: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.4 Cons 51.20

08:43 GMT Italy: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.7 Cons 50.7

08:48 GMT France: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 47.3P Cons 47.3

08:53 GMT Germany: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 51.8P Cons 51.8

08:58 GMT E18: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.7P Cons 50.70

09:28 GMT UK: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 51.6 Cons 51.5

14:45 GMT US: Markit PMI-f, index Oct Prev 56.2- Cons 56.0

15:00 GMT US: ISM manufacturing index Oct Prev 56.6 Cons 56.5

15:00 GMT US: Construction spending, % m/m Sep Prev -0.8 Cons 0.7

 

 

Tuesday 04 November

 

 

07:00 GMT NICOSIA - ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks on 'Current Developments in Euro Area' and European Stability Mechanism Managing Director Klaus Regling on 'Thinking beyond the Crisis' at one-day conference in Cyprus organized by the Economist

16:00 GMT BOCHUM, Germany - Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret speaks in Bochum about European banking supervision

 

 

00:30 GMT Australia: Trade balance, AUD mn Sep Prev -787 Cons -1775

00:30 GMT Australia: Retail sales, % m/m Sep Prev 0.1 Cons 0.3

00:30Australia: Real Retail sales, % q/q Sep Prev -0.2 Cons 0.5

05:00 GMT Japan: Auto sales, % y/y Oct Prev -2.8

09:30 GMT UK: Construction PMI, index Oct Prev 64.2 Cons 63.4

10:00 GMT E18: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -0.1 (-1.4) Cons 0.0 (-1.5)

13:30 GMT US: Trade balance, $ bn Sep Prev -40.1 Cons -40.0

13:30 GMT Canada: Int'l merchandise trade, $ bn Sep Prev -0.6- Cons -0.7

21:45 GMT New Zealand: Unemployment rate, %Q Prev 5.6- Cons 5.5

21:45 GMT New Zealand: Employment change, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.4- Cons 0.6

21:45 GMT New Zealand: Participation rate, %Q3 Prev 68.9- Cons 69.0

21:45 GMT New Zealand: Private sector wages excl. overtime, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.6- Cons 0.5

21:45 GMT New Zealand: Private sector wages incl. overtime, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.6- Cons 0.5

21:45 GMT New Zealand: Hourly earnings (% q/q) Q3 Prev 0.5- Cons 1.1

22:30 GMT Australia: AIG/CBA services PSI, index Oct Prev 45.4

 

 

Wednesday 05 November

 

 

Poland: Repo rate, % Nov Prev 2.00 Cons 1.75

02:30 GMT TOKYO - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at an event hosted by Kyodo news agency

07:30 GMT Thailand: Benchmark interest rate, %Nov Prev 2.00 Cons 2.00

14:15 GMT US: Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (FOMC voter) speaks in Minnesota

14:30 GMT US: Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Washington

15:00 GMT US: Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Lima, Peru

23:50 GMT TOKYO - Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its October policy-setting meeting

 

01:30 GMT Japan: Wages per worker, % y/y Sep Prev 0.9 Cons 0.8

05:58 GMT Ireland: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 62.5 Cons 62.3

07:30 GMT Sweden: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 55.6

08:13 GMT Spain: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 55.8 Cons 55.5

08:15 GMT Swi: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.1 (-0.1) Cons -0.1 (-0.1)

08:30 GMT Sweden: Service production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.7 (2.3)

08:30 GMT Sweden: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -0.2 (-2.4) Cons 0.3 (-2.0)

08:43 GMT Italy: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 48.8 Cons 49.4

08:48 GMT France: "Final" services PMI, index Oct Prev 48.2P Cons 48.1

08:53 GMT Germany: Final services PMI, index Oct Prev 54.8P Cons 54.8

08:58 GMT E18: Final services PMI, index Oct Prev 52.4P Cons 52.4

08:58 GMT E18: Final composite PMI, index Oct Prev 52.2P Cons 52.2

09:28 GMT UK: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 58.7- Cons 58.4

10:00 GMT E18: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 1.2 (1.9) Cons -0.7 (1.5)

13:15 GMT US: ADP private payrolls, chg, k Oct 217202 Prev 213 Cons 214

15:00 GMT US: ISM non-manufacturing index Oct 58.759.6 Prev 58.6 Cons 58.0

 

 

Thursday 06 November 1, 2014

 

 

08:30 GMT E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy speaks at banking conference in Brussels

10:00 GMT Malaysia: Overnight rate, %Nov Prev 3.25 Cons 3.25

12:00 GMT Czech: Repo rate announcement, %Nov Prev 0.05 Cons 0.05

12:00 GMT UK: BoE Bank rate decision, %Nov Prev 0.50 Cons 0.50

12:00 GMT UK: BoE asset purchase decisionNov375375 Prev 375 Cons 375

12:45 GMT E18: ECB Interest rate announcement, %Nov Prev 0.05 Cons 0.05

13:30 GMT E18: ECB Press conference

14:00 GMT E18: Eurogroup meeting in Brussels

14:00 GMT WASHINGTON - Former Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Jerry Jordan will attend the Cato Institute's 32nd Annual Monetary Conference

15:40 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois

18:30 GMT US: Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks in Illinois

 

 

00:30 GMT Australia: Employment change, k Oct Prev -29.7 Cons 10.0

00:30 GMT Australia: Unemployment rate, % Oct Prev 6.16.1 Cons 6.1

00:30 GMT Australia: Participation rate, % Oct Prev 64.5- Cons 64.5

07:00 GMT Germany: Factory orders, %m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -5.7 (-1.3) Cons 2.2 (-1.0)

08:30 GMT Netherlands: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.0 (0.2) Cons -0.2 (0.4)

09:30 GMT UK: Industrial output, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (2.5) Cons 0.4 (1.6)

09:30 GMT UK: Manufacturing output, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (3.9) Cons 0.3 (2.8)

13:30 GMT US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 01-Nov Prev 287 (281) Cons 285

13:30 GMT US: Non-farm productivity-p, % q/q 3Q P Prev 2.3 Cons 0.9

13:30 GMT US: Unit labor cost-p, % q/q 3Q P Prev -0.1 Cons 0.9

13:30 GMT Canada: Building permits, % m/m Sep Prev -27.3 Cons 5.0

15:00 GMT Canada: Ivey PMI, index Oct Prev 58.6

22:30 GMT Australia: AIG Construction PCI, index Oct Prev 59.1

 

 

Friday 07 November

 

 

E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy and Executive Board member Coeuré speaks at symposium in Brussels-

Greece: PM Samaras visits Cyprus (to 08/11)

00:05 GMT US: Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC-voter) speaks in New York

00:30 GMT Australia: RBA statement on Monetary policyNov

08:00 GMT E28: ECOFIN meeting in Brussels

14:15 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois

15:15 GMT US: Fed chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks in Paris, France

19:30 GMT US: Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington, D.C.

22:00 GMT E18: ECB Vice-President Constâncio speaks at annual international banking conference in Chicago

 

06:45 GMT Swi: Unemployment rate (adj), % Oct Prev 3.2 Cons 3.2

07:00 GMT Germany: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -4.0 (-2.8) Cons 2.0 (-0.6)

07:00 GMT Germany: Trade balance sa, € bn Sep Prev 14.0 Cons 19.0

07:30 GMT France: BdF industrial business sentiment, index Oct Prev 96.1 Cons 95.0

07:45 GMT France: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (-0.3) Cons -0.2 (-0.2)

07:45 GMT France: Budget, year-to date, € bn Sep Prev -94.1

07:45 GMT France: Trade balance, € bn Sep Prev -5.8- Cons -5.1

09:00 GMT Norway: Manufacturing production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 1.0 (5.2) Cons -0.7

09:30 GMT UK: Visible trade balance, £bn Sep Prev -9.1 Cons -9.3

13:30 GMT US: Non-farm payrolls, chg, k Oct Prev 248 Cons 230

13:30 GMT US: Private non-farm payrolls, chg, k Oct Prev 236 Cons 225

13:30 GMT US: Unemployment rate, %Oct Prev 5.9 Cons 5.9

13:30 GMT US: Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.0 (2.0) Cons 0.2 (2.1)

13:30 GMT US: Average weekly hours Oct Prev 34.6 Cons 34.6

13:30 GMT Canada: Unemployment rate, %Oct Prev 6.8 Cons 6.8

13:30 GMT Canada: Net change in employment, k Oct Prev 74.1 Cons 0.0

13:30 GMT Canada: Participation Rate, %Oct Prev 66.0- Cons 66.0

14:00 GMT Mexico: CPI inflation, % m/m Oct Prev 0.44 Cons 0.55

20:00 GMT US: Consumer credit, chg, $ bn Sep Prev 13.5 Cons 16.0

 

 

Saturday 08 November

 

 

China: Trade Balance, USD bn Oct Prev 40.0 Cons 35.4

China: Exports, % y/y Oct Prev 15.3 Cons 10.0

China: Imports, % y/y Oct Prev 7.0 Cons 7.0

 

 

Sunday 09 November

 

 

Spain: Catalonia referendum

[titi1909 10]

Correlation table and COT analysis

[lukepearson 10]

China devaluation to cause uncertainty in policy, whilst USD to be unsettled by rate hike

 

Kathleen Brooks, Research Director for City Index, joined Nick Batsford and Richard Hunter at Tip TV to discuss the China devaluation, the USD, the US rate hike, oil and equities.

 

China devaluation not great for China

 

Brooks began by noting that she didn’t expect the China devaluation, before adding that the devaluation is unlikely to boost anything. She commented that it is likely to lead to a huge amount of capital outflow, which is good for the UK property market, and also brings about uncertainty in policy.

 

USD doesn’t move with interest cycles as you would expect

 

With the FOMC minutes being released on Wednesday, and being one month away from the FOMC meeting, Brooks noted that whenever there has been a tightening cycle the USD has actually fallen over the last 30 years. The USD is also unlikely to be unsettled by the rate hike, with Brooks commenting that the Fed will urge on the side of caution and thus she will be surprised if the hike occurs in September.

 

Not a buyer for choice on oil

 

The situation doesn’t feel right concerning oil, according to Brooks. She noted that there is too much supply, with Iran producing at the highest level for the last 6 years, whilst China’s demand likely to fall further with its weakening economy. Brooks also continued that oil will remain in a tight range for the next while.

 

Good environment for equities

 

Brooks finished by expressing that equities are in a good environment, with low inflation, interest rates and oil prices, meaning firms still have pricing power. However, she does outline a warning over big blue chips in the near future, including large oil companies and heavy exporters to China like BMW, and instead focus on smaller companies in areas such as Spain.

 

See more at: China devaluation to cause uncertainty in policy, whilst USD to be unsettled by rate hike | TipTV.co.uk

[lukepearson 10]

Following yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes, Marc Ostwald – Market strategist at ADM Investor Services – joined Zak Mir and Bil Hubard in the Tip TV studio to discuss the likelihood of an interest rate hike in the US and the UK, as well as what’s going on in the markets. Have the equity markets braced for a rate hike? Views are somewhat negative in the US equities market, as they see a sideways churn. However Marc Ostwald believes this is a bullish sign, and that players in the stock market are preparing themselves for the possibility of a rate hike occurring in September. With equities continuing to be the most attractive prospect for investors, there’s no rush to sell as other markets are proving exceptionally reactive to incoming data. The need for differentiation Akin to the sentiments from recent news, with markets becoming more dynamic we’re likely to see a separation between the smarter investors. Ostwald believes differentiation will be key in deciding where to invest, as industries across the board struggle, but specific opportunities still present themselves as a result of micro-specific factors. - See more at: Wall street ready for the Federal Reserve rate hike? | TipTV.co.uk

[lukepearson 10]

First Black Monday, now Woeful Wednesday?

 

Neil Mackinnon – Chief macro strategist at VTB Capital – joined Mike Ingram and Zak Mir in the Tip TV studio to discuss what powers the major central banks have to turn the markets around again.

 

Uncertainty over possible second down leg

 

The warning signs have been evident for a while, says Mackinnon, as ongoing market pressure in China, speculation over a Fed rate hike, and oil prices looking for a bottom have culminated in Monday’s flash crash. However the overall bearish outlook for the markets still persists, and with major banks having exhausted almost all monetary options, there is little that can be done to break this cycle.

 

See more at: First Black Monday, now Woeful Wednesday? | TipTV.co.uk

[lukepearson 10]

Today’s stock and macro update: China data and market unclear but may still prevent Fed rate hike

 

Nick Batsford, CEO of Tip TV, opened the Tip TV Finance Show alongside Richard Hunter, Head of Equities at Hargreaves Lansdown, to discuss the impending potential Fed rate hike and FOMC meeting this Thursday, China’s clouded economic data, as well as brief outlooks on the FTSE 100, NASDAQ, Merlin, Kingfisher and more.

 

Entirely 50/50 on Fed decision this Thursday

 

Hunter outlined that the verdict of Thursday’s FOMC meeting is split down the middle and a rate hike could be on the cards. He noted that any hike will be a 25 basis point interest rate rise. However, Hunter also highlighted that China has given the Federal Reserve a significant excuse to prevent the Fed hike, even though US data has been improving recently.

 

China clouded economic data remains

 

Hunter briefly outlined China, commenting that its stock market is still in trouble following the drastic fall and the government artificially holding up prices, and that in terms of its economic data we are unsure of its accuracy.

 

October tumble in the markets possible

 

Hunter moved onto the markets, and commented on the decline until December as many begin positioning their portfolios for 2016. Historically October has been the month for a crash, however, he noted that you can’t categorise months, sometimes it will and sometimes it won’t, and he urges to look to the longer term and ride out the volatility.

 

Oversupply to cause $20 oil

 

Batsford highlighted the call by Goldman Sachs who have predicted oil down to $20 a barrel. In response, Hunter noted that he is not sure on oil, and that there must be some other factors in play other than oversupply for Goldman Sachs to be calling oil down to $20. He added oil experts believe we are in a range now, and that $20 is a long way off at the moment.

 

Stock and Index updates

 

Batsford outlined the NASDAQ as being the strongest index on Thursday and is currently leading the market. He also added that this should continue over the next week.

 

In terms of IAG, Hunter commented that it is a well-regarded stock and the market consensus is coming in at a strong buy.

 

Hunter continued onto KGF, and believed that they are trying to get synergies within the business. According to Hunter, exposure to France had been holding back and the Jury remains out at the moment.

 

When concerning MERL, Hunter noted that is will be interesting to see what financial impact Merlin is likely to take from the Alton Towers incident. But it maintains a buy due to its great diversification of parks and rides and its presence in the USA as well.

 

See more at: Today?s stock and macro update: China data and market unclear but may still prevent Fed rate hike | TipTV.co.uk