Daily Analysis

HFblogNews · August 18, 2020

Date : 18th August 2020.

FX Update – August 18 – Dollar in the Doldrums.

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USDIndex, H4 & Monthly

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The Dollar has continued to weaken, which pushed the USDIndex (DXY) to a new 27-month low at 92.30. EURUSD correspondingly rose to a 12-day peak at 1.1943, and another 27-month peak. Cable rallied by 0.5% in making a 5-month high at 1.3198, while EURGBP reversed most of the gains it saw yesterday in making a 0.9035 low. AUDUSD pegged an 6-month high at 0.7252, and USDCAD descended to a 7-month low at 1.3155. Aside from the generally softer US Dollar, the Canadian currency has been buoyed by continued perkiness in oil prices. Yesterday the OPEC+ group said there was near full compliance on supply quotas amount members, lifting front-month WTI crude futures to a $42.99 peak, which is just over 50 cents shy of the five-month peak that was clocked in early August. In the mix has been a measure of Yen outperformance, with USDJPY ebbing to a 12-day low at 105.41 while EURJPY and AUDJPY drifted to respective six- and four-day lows, although both recouped losses during the London AM session.

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In stock markets, yesterday’s tech-led rally on Wall Street inspired the MSCI Asia-Pacific index to rally to near to its pre-pandemic January high, while Europe’s STOXX 600 was showing a moderately 0.3% gain in early PM trading. The White House announced yesterday further restrictions on China’s Huawei, which are aimed at limiting the company’s access to commercially available chips and which has the potential to disrupt global supply chains. President Trump, meanwhile, stated that China is meeting its obligations under the Phase 1 trade deal, although a review of the deal has been delayed. Beijing announced that it will be making an anti-dumping inquiry on Australian wine imports. In focus is tomorrow’s publication of the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting, which comes amid market speculation that the Fed may adopt an average inflation target, specifically with the aim of pushing inflation above the 2% target. This has been a Dollar negative, as it has driven real Treasury yields deep into negative terrain.

US Equity markets have opened in positive tones on the back of strong quarterly earnings from key retailers Walmart and Home Depot, USA30 trades at today’s pivot point at 27,855, USA100 sits at 11,338 and the USA500 tests intra-day all-time highs at R1 level at 3391.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · August 19, 2020

Date : 19th August 2020.

EURUSD holds 1.1900 gains.

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EURUSD, H4

Eurozone HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.4% y/y, in line with the preliminary release. The uptick in the headline rate came despite the dampening impact of Germany’s temporary cut to the VAT rate. Energy prices also remain much lower than a year ago and core inflation lifted to 1.2% y/y in June from 0.8% y/y in the previous month.

Mixed signals then for the ECB, and while there may be nothing in the data to suggest a serious risk of deflation, the low headline rate will add to the arguments of those at the council who are pushing for a more symmetric inflation target that would require the ECB to let inflation run above target for a while following a period of below-target headline rates. In the current situation that would push the first rate hike even further into the future. A similar debate seems to be happening at the FOMC, which is currently also conducting a framework review.

EURUSD has settled off yesterday’s 27-month peak at 1.1965, concurrently with the USDIndex (DXY) consolidating recent losses above Tuesday’s 17-month low at 92.15. The softer dollar hypothesis, which has been dominant in markets for several months, is currently being challenged. Most incoming US data are showing a strong rebound in economic activity, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq equity indices have scaled to record highs. News that House Speaker Pelosi said that the Democrats are willing to trim their proposals has been taken as a positive, as it increases the odds that the Republicans and Democrats will break their stalemate and reach a deal on the next pandemic fiscal rescue package. July data showed an acceleration in homebuilding in the US to the most in almost four years. Coronavirus infections are now dropping sharply in the recently afflicted sun states, such as Arizona, Texas and Florida, indicating the downward phase of a classic Gompertz curve progression of respiratory illness as community immunity builds up.

In focus is today’s publication of the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting, which comes amid market speculation that the Fed may adopt an average inflation target, specifically with the aim of pushing inflation above the 2% target. This has been a dollar negative, as it has driven real Treasury yields deep into negative terrain. Any confirmation of this would bolster the softer dollar hypothesis, and likely push EURUSD above 1.2000, while any lack of reference to this issue would have an inverse effect. The advent of the 750 bln Euro recovery fund, which has reduced perceived EU break-up risks, and the fact that Europe has come through the pandemic ahead of the US (having been impacted earlier), have also been underpinning factors of EURUSD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · August 24, 2020

Date : 24th August 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

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Moving into a new week, the focus is now squarely on 2 days Jackson Hole Symposium. Uncertainty over the virus and recovery front, on the EU-UK trade negotiation front and center US-China tensions remain the major drivers of the market.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Tuesday – 25 August 2020

German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to improve to 91.7 following the stronger than expected July reading, when the headline climbed to 90.5 from 86.3.
Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 94.0 from 92.6 in July, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. This compares to an 18-year high of 137.9 in October of 2018 and a recession-low of 25.3 in February of 2009. The expectations index should rise to 93.6 in August from 91.5. All of the available confidence measures were oscillating near historic highs before being crushed by COVID-19, and even with recent drop-backs, it’s remarkable how firm the consumer measures have stayed relative to prior recessions.

Wednesday – 26 August 2020

Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 4.0% in July with a 12% bounce in transportation orders, after a 7.6% headline orders climb in June that included a 20.2% transportation orders surge. The durable good orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 1.1%. Defense orders should bounce by 19%, following a -16.8% June drop. Boeing orders fell to zero planes from 1 in June. The vehicle assembly rate rose to 11.9 mln from 8.4 mln units in June, versus a 3.7 mln trough from the last recession in January of 2009. Durable good shipments should rise 6.0%, and inventories should fall -0.3%.

Thursday – 27 August 2020

Jackson Hole Symposium – DAY 1
Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 05:45) – In Switzerland GDP is expected to sink further to -8.0% q/q, after the 2.6% contraction seen in the first quarter.
Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) –We expect a boost in the -32.9% Q2 GDP figure to -32.4%, with hikes for consumption, wholesale inventories, imports, exports, nonresidential construction and residential construction and retail inventories, but trimmings for both equipment spending and factory inventories. The Q2 GDP data capture the powerful impact of mandatory closures, which left Q2 contraction rates of 20%-40% for most measures of demand, and larger 50%-65% declines for foreign trade.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech

Friday – 28 August 2020

Jackson Hole Symposium – DAY 2
Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – In Q1 Canada revealed a -8.2% pandemic driven drop after the revised 0.6% gain in Q4, with Q1 coming in a bit better than expected but still marking a hefty pull-back in activity as lockdown measures shuttered much of the economy in the second half of March. Indeed, March GDP plunged -7.2% (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% gain in February (was flat). Expectation is for a -40% plunge in Q2 as the economy is devastated by the lockdowns, even as the easing of those measures so far in May suggests that the economy bottomed out in April. A 25% bounce in GDP is penciled in for Q3.
Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to remain unchanged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · August 25, 2020

Date : 25th August 2020.

The Europe Brief.

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The round of August confidence data has so far been mixed, as the services sector registers the fallout from lockdowns and the resurgence of new Covid-19 infections. Travel restrictions and new social distancing measures hit the services sector and consumer confidence especially in countries relying on tourism. Downside risks to the outlook continue to linger then, even as positive headlines on vaccines and treatment are offering a way out.

German Q2 GDPwas revised slightly higher with today’s release – to a still firmly negative -9.7% q/q, from -10.1% q/q reported initially. The breakdown not surprisingly showed a pretty broad based contraction, with only government consumption helping to dampen the blow. Private consumption meanwhile contracted -10.9% q/q and exports slumped -20.3%, versus a -16.0% q/q decline in imports as borders were closed and supply chains disrupted.

Beyond the temporary impact of lockdowns, the most worrying part of the report is the -19.6% q/q dip in equipment investment, which followed a -7.3% q/q decline in the previous quarter and could suggest that companies are not expecting a quick rebound.

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The manufacturing sector at least continues to rebound and after a rise in Germany’s preliminary composite PMI German Ifo business confidence today that jumped to 92.6 in August, from 90.5 in July. A better than expected number, that registered a broad based improvement, especially in the current conditions indicator. The breakdown for the diffusion index, which gives the balance of positive and negative answers, showed services sentiment lifting to 7.8 from 2.1, while manufacturing improved to a still negative -5.4, from -12.1 in the previous month. All in all a broad based improvement that should go some way to restore confidence in the recovery especially against the background of positive headlines on Covid-19 vaccines and treatment.

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The Eurozone August PMI (August 21) revealed a more mixed picture, however, in the preliminary release. Developments were uneven across countries with France more hit than Germany, although final readings will likely show that Spain and Italy suffered even more from the renewed restrictions for the services sector.

With inflation still at very low levels, central bankers have enough room to manoeuvre. Eurozone HICP inflation may have lifted slightly in July, although with the headline confirmed at 0.4% y/y in the final reading, it remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. Part of this is of course due to special factors, with energy prices still far below the levels seen last year and July readings also impacted by the dampening impact of Germany’s temporary cut to the VAT rate. Indeed, core inflation lifted to 1.2% y/y in July from 0.8% y/y in June, although even that is lower than the ECB would like to see.

ECB still debating inflation target

While there may be nothing in the inflation data to suggest a serious risk of deflation, the low headline rate will add to the arguments of those at the council who are pushing for a more symmetric inflation target that would require the ECB to let inflation run above target for a while following a period of below target headline rates. In the current situation that would push the first rate hike even further into the future. A similar debate seems to be happening at the FOMC, which – like the ECB – is also conducting a framework review. There is some speculation that Fed-chairman Powell will give some hint on average inflation targeting at the Jackson Hole conference, which in the past has been the stage for coordinated signals from central banks.

EUR continues to benefit from stimulus agreement

EURUSD has lifted to the mid 1.1800s today, posting an intraday peak at 1.1843, which is 60 pips up on Monday’s New York closing level. The Euro has also rallied against the Yen, which is the day’s biggest loser, and most other currencies. While a bout of general dollar selling has helped to lift EURUSD, there have concurrently been a couple of cues to buy euros, including the better than expected Ifo reading and optimistic comments from German finance minister Scholz.

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Still the pair’s 5-month rally out of sub-1.0650 levels of mid March has been losing momentum in recent weeks, even it still produced new 27-month highs. Last week was the first down week the pair has seen out of the last nine weeks. A sustained correction is increasingly likely. The US is clearly through the worst of the pandemic, the economy is rebounding, Wall Street is on an record-breaking winning streak, and Treasury yields have perked up in recent sessions despite an expected dovish lean from Fed Chair Powell at his keynote address this Thursday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · August 26, 2020

Date : 26th August 2020.

Durables present a potential GDP surge in Q3.

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The 11.2% July durable goods orders surge sharply exceeded estimates, following gains of 7.7% (was 7.6%) in June and 15.1% in May, led by increases of 35.6% for transportation after a 19.7% (was 20.0%) June rise, and a 30.0% rise for defense after a -16.7% (was -16.8%) June decline. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.4% in July, following a 4.0% (was 3.3%) June gain.

The huge July orders gain marks a third straight monthly pop after two big pandemic drops in March and April.
For the equipment sector specifics, nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft were up 1.9%, following June’s 4.3% (was 3.3%) increase. Nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft increased 2.4%, following the 3.8% (was 3.3%) gain in June. Inventories declined -0.5% following a -0.1% (was unchanged) June dip. The inventory-shipment ratio fell to 1.73 from 1.87.

Today‘s data may require an upward revision in our 30.5% Q3 GDP estimate. The June equipment data were revised upward while the June inventory data were revised modestly lower, leaving what appears to be net upward risk for our assumed upward Q2 GDP revision to -32.2% from -32.9%.

Today‘s report largely assures that we’ll see a GDP surge in Q3 that reverses most of the GDP decline reported in Q2.

Yields cheapened a bit on the durable goods beat, with a bear steepener still the play ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Concurrently, Equity futures are gyrating in a narrow range around unchanged levels. The 30-year bond was up 4 bps to 1.435%, but has notched back to 1.423%. The 10-year also was also about 3 bps cheaper at 0.719%. The just auctioned 2-year note is up 1 bp to 0.154%.

The US Dollar headed higher after the surge in durable orders, taking EURUSD to four-session lows of 1.1772 from near 1.1790 and USDJPY to 106.42 from 106.30.

While there are still widespread expectations that the FOMC will be shifting to an average inflation strategy, some chips are being taken off the table after last week’s rally as the FOMC minutes weren’t clear on the timing of the adoption. And KC Fed’s George said “it’s too soon to try to speculate on what else might be needed other than to say the Fed is going to be very vigilant.”

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · August 27, 2020

Date : 27th August 2020.

The “big” day.

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With all eyes on Powell, FX markets traded within a narrow range overnight. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are both up 0.1%, while US futures are slightly in the red after producing fresh record highs for the USA500 and USA100 yesterday, while most Asia stock markets have beaten a retreat.

The USA100 is holding above the latest near term support at 11,930. The technical picture remains strongly positive for Wall Street in general not only on risk appetite gains but also on tech stocks rally after the reports from Bloomberg that Amazon’s founder and Chief Executive Jeff Bezos has become the first billionaire in modern history to cross the $200 billion mark as the shares of his company rose to a new high. His wealth is now almost double that of the second richest person in the world, Microsoft founder Bill Gates,

Let’s turn back to the USA100 though, in which the “buying the deep” strategy has been seen so far in the near and medium term. Buying into near term weakness remains a viable strategy. Today will be an interesting session as depending upon the perceived level of dovishness of the speech, there could be a sizeable influx of volatility.

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Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later today (Thursday) is much anticipated. The markets are looking for more of an update on the FOMC’s Framework Policy Review. The Fed has been discussing a shift in its inflation strategy to targeting an average price target, versus the 2% mark, which would allow an overshoot of price pressures to make up for the underperformance over the last decade. As suggested by the FOMC minutes and by KC’s George earlier today, not everyone on the Committee ascribes to this shift. Obviously there was no decision at the July 28, 29 meeting, though one is expected to be made at the September 15, 16 meeting.

Even though no one really expects the FOMC to even start to think about thinking about raising rates for a couple of years, any indication from Powell that there’s more opposition to a shift, or that an announcement won’t be made next month, won’t sit well with the markets.

Meanwhile, there is a risk markets will be disappointed as he may not yet be in a position to deliver in terms of specifics on inflation targeting changes or other policy rubrics. The FOMC hasn’t completed its framework review, and there are known differences of opinion among Committee members. Any sense of disappointment would likely catalyze a rebound in the USD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · August 31, 2020

Date : 31st August 2020.

FX Update – August 31 – The USD trend persists.

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EURUSD, H1

The Dollar posted fresh trend lows against some currencies before recovering in low volume, (London is closed today) end-of-month re-balancing trades. The framework regime shift at the Fed, announced by Chairman Powell last week, effectively reaffirmed the dollar softening trend, concomitantly with shorter dated inflation-adjusted Treasury yields posting fresh lows. The yields on the 5- and 7-year real constant maturity Treasury notes were indicated on Friday at new seven-year-plus lows, at -1.40% and -1.26% respectively (down by a respective 15 bp and 11 bp from week-before levels). The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) logged a new 27-month low at 92.11, and is set to rack August up as a fourth consecutive month of descent and the worst August for five years. EURUSD printed a high at 1.1938, which drew back in on the 27-month high seen a couple of weeks back at 1.1967. This puts the pair on course to make this the thirteenth up week that’s been seen out of the last sixteen weeks. For now, the softer dollar theme looks likely to remain in play. But there are forces that may weaken this trend. One is that incoming US data has been showing ongoing economic recovery in the US. Another is that the ECB is also considering average inflation targeting with the aim of increasing inflation expectations, which would presumably weigh on the Euro. The Eurozone’s economic recovery may also flatten as a consequence of renewed restrictions for hospitality and travel operators. This was the prime cause for preliminary August services PMI surveys missing consensus expectations. Governments in most European countries (Sweden being the main exception) remain somewhat trigger happy in imposing localised restrictions in response to upward flurries in positive coronavirus tests — even though there hasn’t been any significant correspondence of actual public health events (serious illness and associated hospitalisations and deaths). The death rate from all respiratory illnesses outside Covid-19 has been greater than for Covid itself for some time now, and all-cause mortality rates continue to trend below long-term averages.

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Elsewhere, Cable posted a fresh eight-month peak at 1.3367 before retreating to 1.3332. AUDUSD lifted to a new trend peak at 0.7382, which is the loftiest level the pair has seen since December 2018. NZDUSD saw an eight-month high at 0.6740. USDCAD sank back below 1.3100 but remains shy of Friday’s seven-month low at 1.3045. Like other oil correlating currencies, the Canadian Dollar lost upside momentum as crude prices pared gains from the highs that were seen mid last week. Hurricane Laura wasn’t as disruptive to Gulf of Mexico crude production as feared. USDJPY is higher on the back of yen underperformance, rising to the lower 105.90’s, retracing some of the declines seen on Friday from levels near 107.00. AUDJPY, meanwhile, has lifted by over 0.7% but has remained short of last week’s 18-month peak. EURJPY, GBPJPY and other yen crosses have also lifted, but have also remained below recent highs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 1, 2020

Date : 1st September 2020.

Risks for UK Economy.

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The markets continue to take a sanguine view of the apparently stalled progress in the EU and UK trade talks. All things Brexit continue to go down to the wire, and expectations for any real progress are low until much nearer the deadline, which is widely accepted as being the EU leaders’ summit in October. The consensus view is that a deal will be struck. There are grounds to doubt there can be anything other than a narrow deal, given the intransigence on the EU’s level-playing-field rules and fishing rights.

A bare-bones deal or a no-deal outcome are a risk.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s cabinet is full of Brexit ideologues; of the view that Brexit is an opportunity to craft the UK on the Singaporean model, as an outwardly-oriented, low-tax and pro-trade hub. Signing up to the EU’s level-playing-field rules is not consistent with this view, and there is only so far that the EU is likely to bend. The government, which has over four years on the electoral clock and a large majority in parliament, is in a position to weather the short-term economic damage that leaving the EU’s single market without a comprehensive new trade deal would cause. Note that when UK leaves the single market, it will not just be leaving free trade with the EU but also the 40 free trade deals the EU has across the globe.

Another risk is that the UK government’s pandemic-era furlough scheme will end in late October, which is likely to cause an upward jolt to the unemployment rate, with the aviation, high street retail and hospitality sectors to be hardest hit. The wage support scheme protected about 9.5 mln jobs at the height of the lockdown, though there remains up to 1.5 mln jobs at risk of being chopped in October, unless the government extends its support scheme (as Germany did with its plan last week).

Furthermore, today’s UK economic data releases, showed that employment in the manufacturing sector dropped at one of the steepest rates since the Great Recession 11 years ago.

The final UK August manufacturing PMI was revised a tick lower, to 55.2 in the headline reading versus 55.3 in the preliminary figure. The details showed production in the sector to be rising at its quickest pace since May 2014, while new orders rose by the fastest since November 2017. Export orders rose for the first time in 10 months. However employment was on the downside, while backlogs of work fell at an increased rate, too, which points to space capacity. Business sentiment for the year has ahead remained near the 28-month peak, with hopes being pinned on expectations for a return to economic normalcy.

The risk is that conditions will deteriorate as lockdown-caused work backlogs drop, and when the government wage support program expires in October as stated earlier, which will likely spark job losses (there is a chance that the scheme will be extended).

The final August services PMI survey will be released on Thursday. The government’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out” scheme (with the government, courtesy of the bond market and eventually the taxpayer, meeting up to half the bill for consumers at restaurants and pubs from Monday to Wednesday during August) was partly behind the strength in activity in the service sector. The scheme, as of today, has now expired, which will likely lead to a weaker services PMI headline in the September survey. The service sector will be particularly exposed to a cut in the wage support scheme in October, with the aviation, high street retail and hospitality sectors most at risk.

As markets for now are taking a sanguine view of the trade talks and as there is a slight recovery in both the domestic and global economy from the more extreme phase of lockdowns that were seen earlier in the year, the UK currency remains well supported.

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GBPUSD has risen above the 1.3470 level for the first time since April 2018. The pair has continued to be floated by broad US Dollar weakness. GBPJPY has also been lifted by Yen weakness, which saw the cross print 7-month highs yesterday. The Pound has fared less well against the Euro and other currencies. Among the mix of forces affecting the Pound is the coronavirus, which has ceased to be a public health event in terms of causing severe illness and associated hospitalizations and deaths. This being the case, regional UK governments remain somewhat trigger happy with regard to implementing localized lockdown measures in response to rises in new cases, and we can assume that this will only get worse going into the winter, the season of contagious respiratory illness.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 7, 2020

Date : 7th September 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

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The shortened week starts with the major markets closed for Labor Day, but overcompensates on Wednesday and Thursday with the BoC and ECB rate decisions and Press Conferences, and Inflation from the US.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 07 September 2020

Labor Day – US, Canada closed
Trade Balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at $18 bln, compared to the deficit of $7 billion in February.
Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Japan is expected to confirm a -8.1% contraction of its economy in the second quarter of the year.

Tuesday – 08 September 2020

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q2’s GDP is expected to confirm a contraction to -13.1% q/q and -15% y/y.
UK Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A)

Wednesday – 09 September 2020

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The July Inflation was confirmed at 2.7% y/y, above the preliminary number and the 2.5% y/y in the previous month. Now the August number is expected to continue higher to 3.1 % y/y with a rise in the monthly reading at 1.0% y/y from 0.6% last month.
Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The BoC’s announcement is expected to reveal no change in rates and a reiteration of a whatever-it-takes policy outlook that is shared by the core central banks. The latest jobs report showed that two-thirds of jobs have been recovered, consistent with bank’s view that there is still a long way to go before the economy and labour market return to pre-COVID levels of activity. Overall, a roughly as expected report that supports the recovery story but also highlights the long journey faced by the economy to return to pre-COVID levels of employment and production.

Thursday – 10 September 2020

Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – Even before the negative inflation print, there had been calls for the ECB to move to a more “symmetric inflation target” as part of the ongoing strategic policy review. With the Fed already indicating a shift to an average inflation target and the August HICP rate falling back to -0.2% y/y, the pressure to strengthen the ECB’s commitment to the “low for longer” message has only increased, especially after the rise in the EUR, which clearly has some council members rattled. Against that background the ECB’s policy meeting will be of intense interest for markets and while markets don’t expect a change in overall policy settings, Lagarde is likely to send a dovish signal and hence strengthen the commitment to the “low for longer” stance.
Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims dropped -130,000 to 881,000 in the week ended August 29 following the -93,000 drop to 1,011,000 in the August 22 week.
BoC’s Governor Macklem speech (CAD, GMT 16:30)

Friday – 11 September 2020

Eurogroup Meeting
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP final inflation for August is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.1% y/y.
Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The August CPI is seen with 0.2% m/m gains for both the CPI headline and core, following 0.6% gains for both in July. The headline will be boosted by an estimated 1.9% August increase for CPI gasoline prices. As-expected August figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.2%, up from 1.0% in July. Core prices should set a 1.5% y/y rise, below the 1.6% y/y pace last month. As with PPI, the headline inflation figures continue to be lifted by oil prices. The Fed will have plenty of elbow room for an easing monetary policy over the coming quarters.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 8, 2020

Date : 8th September 2020.

FX Update – 8 September – Sterling STILL centre stage.

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GBPUSD, H1

The head of the UK government’s legal department has quit, according to sources cited by the FT,¹ (paywall) who report that Sir Jonathan Jones is “very unhappy” about the government’s decision to overwrite parts of the Northern Ireland protocol that was enshrined in the Withdrawal Agreement. This is a significant development, as it shows the government’s intent on leaving the single market at year-end without a deal, if necessary, rather than being a mere negotiating tactic. The unilateral move to overwrite parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, specifically aimed at enhancing the UK’s state aid autonomy, crosses a fundamental EU red line.

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Sterling has hit fresh lows against its peers, racking up a near 1% loss versus the Dollar and being the biggest loser out of its peer group. Cable dropped to new lows at 1.3020, while EURGBP gained 0.86%, printing a two-week high at 0.9048. The Pound is also down against the other European currencies, the yen and dollar bloc currencies. The latest news is that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will give a speech later today where he will defend his government’s decision introduce legislation that will unilaterally unpick parts of the EU Withdrawal Agreement. The Internal Market Bill, which will be published this week, is specifically designed to enhance the UK’s state aid autonomy — rather than constrain it, which puts the UK on a crash course with Brussels and its regime for limited state aid. EU Commission President von der Leyen tweeted yesterday that the Withdrawal Agreement is “an obligation under international law and prerequisite for any future partnership.” The risk of the UK exiting the EU without a trade deal are now much greater, and the Pound is likely to run much lower yet. Leaving the frictionless trade of the single market without a mitigating trade deal means UK trade shifting to much less favourable WTO terms (think tax and regulatory friction). The UK won’t just be leaving the common market, but also the 40 trade agreements the EU has with global economies.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 9, 2020

Date : 9th September 2020.

No-Deal Brexit : Odd rising? How about Sterling?

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A a no-deal Brexit outcome is now a much greater risk.

The London Times have reported that senior members of Prime Minister Johnson’s party are warning him about the risks of a no-deal exit from the EU’s single market, and that the plan to unilaterally dilute the Withdrawal Agreement is a risky move. Johnson’s move may be tactical, aimed at turning a weak negotiating position into a strong one before political leaders become involved in the Brexit endgame, which is set to happen between now and the EU leaders’ summit in October.

But, the view that Johnson’s cabinet are Brexit ideologues, and are serious about blowing up trade talks and prepared to exit the single market at year-end without a deal, is now much strengthened. As Robert Peston, a generally well regarded ITV political journalist, puts it in an opinion piece, the real reason Johnson’s government is sacrificing the prospect of a trade deal boils down to the desire to subsidise British industry — to “have the discretion to invest without fetter in hi-tech, digital, artificial intelligence and the full gamut of the so-called fourth industrial revolution.”

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The Brussels position is that the UK can only have a trade deal if it adheres to the EU’s state aid regime, or at the least follow very similar rules, which constrains governments from subsidizing industry to prevent unfair competition. The Internal Market Bill, which is the legislation that will unilaterally unpick parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, published by the government today, is specifically designed to enhance the UK’s state aid autonomy rather than constrain in.

This fits the Singapore model that has been must touted by Johnson and his allies during the Brexit debate.

The UK government knows full well the impact that this will have in relations with Brussels. EU Commission President von der Leyen in a tweet this week stressed that the Withdrawal Agreement is “an obligation under international law and prerequisite for any future partnership.” A senior minister admitted yesterday that the Bill breaks international law, while the head of the UK government’s legal department quit in disgust. This proposed legislation has greatly raised the odds for the UK leaving the EU’s single market without a new deal.

The Internal Market Bill, coupled with a finance bill planned for later in the year, will give ministers the power to tweak protocols that affect Northern Ireland trade with the rest of the UK, and will also enhance the UK’s state aid autonomy — which is be inharmonious with the EU’s regime for limited state aid. This has put the UK on a crash course with Brussels.

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The Poundis likely to drop much further than it already has if markets see the odds of a no-deal Brexit getting much greater than before. Leaving the frictionless trade of the single market without a mitigating trade deal means UK trade shifting to much less favourable WTO terms (think tax and regulatory friction). The UK won’t just be leaving the common market, but also the 40 trade agreements the EU has with global economies.

Additionally, the continued ramping up in coronavirus testing in the UK, meanwhile, is producing a noisy surge in positive results. The shear volume in testing means that even a 1% rate of false positives may be producing scary looking 1,800 new “cases” per day. Along with the approach of winter, the ‘case-demic’ — rising numbers of positive tests in juxtaposition to a lack of corresponding rises in hospitalisations/deaths (which was seen in the 2009 swine flu episode) — is maintaining the media-driven coronavirus psychosis.

The economic impact of this should not be underestimated.

Gatherings of more than six people are now being banned in the UK. Currently however, Sterling has hit fresh 6-week lows against the Dollar, Euro and Yen. The low in Cable is 1.2883, which marks a 4%-plus decline from the last week’s nine-month high at 1.3484. However the biggest underperformer this year is the GBPCHF , with a dive up to 7.6%. This selling pressure came coincided with a strong risk-off vibe in global markets as big tech and energy stocks suffer significant losses, affected by unrealistic tech valuations and plunge in oil prices.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc, an historic low-beta safe-haven currency, periodically correlatives inversely with global stock market direction, along with sentiment about the EU (Switzerland’s biggest trading partner). Hence the GBPCHF move has retreated from 200-DMA down to 1.1800 area, breaking the key support band 1.1850-1.1900 and the 50% Fib level from 2020 downleg, with further downside today.

Momentum is increasingly corrective, with RSI into the 40s, whilst MACD accelerates below its signal line. The inference is that near and medium term negative bias is increasing. A closing breach of 1.1850 would imply further downside towards a previous breakout Support at 61.8% Fib. level, i.e. at 1.1755. If latter rejected, the next Support level comes to the lows 1.16s.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 14, 2020

Date : 14th September 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

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The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as three of the major Central Banks – the Fed, BoJ and BoE– will announce their rate decision and hold a policy press conference. However, markets’ attention will be focused on Brexit jitters, virus concerns and lingering US-China tensions which will also remain in the mix.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 14 September 2020

Leadership election of the ruling LDP – Japan
UK Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A)
UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit (GBP, GMT N/A) –Internal Market Bill, which overrides parts of the Brexit divorce deal, will be debated in the Commons on Monday September 14.

Tuesday – 15 September 2020

RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to how further the RBA members are prepared to go in order to support the economy. The bank in its last meeting left rates on hold, and increased the size of the Term Funding Facility and made the facility available for longer. RBA Governor Lowe said “the board is committed to do what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses in Australia”. “Low for longer”, with the willingness to do more if necessary, is pretty much the stance at most major central banks as the world economy deals with Covid-19.
Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for July are expected to decline to -0.6% (3Mo/Yr). The ILO unemployment rate is seen unchanged.
Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for September is expected to have slightly declined, after spiking to 64 in August. This will be important for retail to actually recover as consumers need to be confident enough to go out and spend again.

Wednesday – 16 September 2020

Consumer Price Index and Core (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The UK CPI inflation is anticipated to be underwhelmed as Brexit jitters. August CPI is anticipated higher at 1.3% y/y from 1% y/y, while core is anticipated lower at 1.4%y/y from 1.8% y/y.
Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – August Retail sales are anticipated to increase at 0.9% for headline and 1.0% for the ex-auto figure, following July gains of 1.2% for the headline and 1.9% ex-autos.
Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The August BOC CPI is expected to continue adding to the backing for steady BoC policy this year, as the Fed and ECB also remained in a wait and see stance. CPI has been forecasted to grow to a 0.9% y/y pace in August, above the 0.7% last month.
Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00-18:30) – The FOMC announced a shift in its monetary policy strategy, moving to an average inflation target. Though the outcome was widely expected, the timing surprised. Markets widely assumed it would be outlined at the September FOMC, along with the SEP. Under this strategy, the Fed will let the economy run hotter and will let the inflation rate rise “moderately” over 2% in order to make up for prior undershoots of that level. There was no indication of a time frame. Hence this meeting will provide further guidance and timeframe. Lastly as the government looks unlikely to deliver more stimulus, the Fed is expected to be all in.

Thursday – 17 September 2020

Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement (JPY, GMT 03:00 – 06:00) – The focus is on Monday’s leadership election of the ruling LDP, which will appoint a new prime minister after Shinzo Abe stepped down. Yoshihide Suga is expected to win. No major changes to prevailing policies would be expected should he indeed be confirmed as the new PM. He is a supporter of ‘Abenomics’, large fiscal stimulus is already in the works, and the close relationship between government and the BoJ would be maintained.
Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final reading of August inflation is expected to have held steady at -0.4% m/m and core at -0.5% m/m.
Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and MPC Voting (GBP, GMT 11:00) –Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions while no change in the MPC voting is expected. BoE policymakers have been subtly changing their tune to a more circumspect one. MPC member Vlieghe, for instance, said that there is a “material risk” that it could take several years before the economy to return to full capacity.
Building Permits & Housing Starts (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slip to a 1.440 mln pace in August, after climbing to a 1.496 mln pace in July from 1.220 mln in June, versus a 14-year high of 1.617 mln in January. Permits are expected to climb to 1.530 mln in August, after rising to 1.483 mln in July. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply in Q3, though the dramatic Q2 climb in the MBA purchase index has been followed by more stable Q3 readings around lofty levels.
Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) –The Philly Fed index is seen rising to 19.0 in September from 17.2, after the big jump to 27.5 by June from a 40-year low of -56.6 in April. The Philly Fed index posted a bottom in the last recession of -40.9 in November of 2008. These diffusion indexes should remain elevated as factory activity continues to ramp up, though with backtracking in some states from restrictions on retail activity. Conditions are improving through Q3, as producers face lean inventory levels.

Friday – 18 September 2020

Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – – UK retail sales for August expected to give further glimpse into Covid-19 damage, with a very pessimistic outcome as forecasts sustain contraction picture .
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – July Retail sales are anticipated to increase at 24.5% for headline and 9.4% for the ex-auto figure.
Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary Michigan sentiment report should climb to 75.0 from 74.1 in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 15, 2020

Date : 15th September 2020.

What you need to know today?

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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Risk seemed to bounce back yesterday, but investors turned cautious again as the FOMC meeting comes into view. Data out of China, including industrial production and retail sales, beat expectations and the PBOC injected 600 bln yuan via a 1 year MLF, which helped China bourses to move higher. Hang Seng and CSI 300 meanwhile are up 0.5% and 0.7%, also helped by comments out of China that a vaccine could be taken in November.

The main US equity indexes closed on Wall Street yesterday with gains of over 1%, and USA500 mini is up 0.5% in overnight trading. Positive news on the Covid-19 vaccine and treatment front, news of some mega mergers, along with above-forecast data out of China, have collectively floated investor spirits.

Elsewhere Asian markets traded mixed, however Eurozone peripheral markets are mostly outperforming slightly, after ECB officials including President Lagarde strengthened the central bank’s message on the EUR since last week’s policy announcement. The message that if the exchange rate threatens to undermine the inflation projection, the ECB will act, is getting clearer and has already seen peripheral markets rallying yesterday.

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GER30 and UK100 futures are both up 0.1% at the moment, underperforming versus US futures, which are up around 0.5% after a mixed session in Asia overnight. The GER30 and UK100are hardly changed as the focus turns to the FOMC meeting, which starts today and its policy statement and new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on Wednesday.

Chair Powell largely pre-empted this meeting in terms of policy with his Jackson Hole announcement of the FOMC’s new strategies where it will pursue an average inflation target and monitor any shortfall in employment. An upward revision is seen in the Fed’s GDP and inflation outlooks, and a downward bump to unemployment, as a consequence of its regime change. The upward revisions to growth may give the US Dollar a lift, though the lower-for-longer strategy on interest rates may offset.

The BoE, which announces its policy decision on Thursday, is also expected to keep overall settings on hold, against the background of Brexit and virus jitters. PM Johnson managed to get his controversial Internal Market Bill through the first reading in parliament yesterday and that leaves the risk of a no-deal scenario firmly on the table.

In FX markets

The USD and JPY softened against their peers amid a background theme of mostly higher stock markets. Among currencies, the USDIndexprinted a 5-day low at 92.84. Sterling remained heavy, though remained above above recent lows. The UK government’s controversial Internal Markets Bill was passed in the House of Commons, and will now go the House of Lords.

As for the Euro, attention will be on the latest ZEW investor sentiment survey, which is the first major confidence data of September. A slight decline in the expectations reading is expected to 71.0 from 71.5. Nothing yet to shake the ECB’s baseline scenario, with Brexit and virus/casedemic developments the key factors that policymakers will be watching closely. EURUSDconcurrently pegged a 5-day high at 1.1900. USDJPY flatlined in the mid-to-upper 105.00s (PP at 105.80).

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AUDUSD rallied by over 0.5% to a 12-day high at 0.7336 but retreated to 0.7310. The release of the latest RBA minutes, although stating “a lower exchange rate would provide more assistance to the Australian economy,” sparked initial Aussie Dollar buying as markets deemed the minutes to be less dovish in overall tone than had been anticipated. The Aussie was subsequently given a further lift by above forecast Chinese data. .

USDCAD has been playing a narrow range in the mid 1.3100s, below the 3-week high that was seen last Wednesday at 1.3261. Oil prices have stabilized in recent days following a near 20% tumble, which has arrested the recent decent in oil-correlating currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar. The flattening out in the recovery pace of the global economy, juxtaposed to large global crude stockpiles and uncertainty about Chinese demand (which has been importing crude in record quantities in recent months, but may now be ready to slow this process down), caused the rotation lower in oil prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 16, 2020

Date : 16th September 2020.

FX Update September 16 – A weaker USD ahead of the FED.

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EURUSD has rallied by just over 50 pips from the intraday low in posting a high at 1.1882. This swings yesterday’s six-day peak at 1.1901 back into scope. Dollar weakness is driving the move, which is being facilitated by strong gains in Cable (0.6%) and in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD (both 0.5%). USDJPY touched the key psychological 105.00, S2 and new seven-week low from a pivot yesterday at 105.50 and highs last week of 106.38.

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Regarding the FOMC, no changes are expected in policy, and while the central bank will likely present upward revisions to US economic projections, the recently codified lower-for-longer monetary policy regime is driving a bearish dollar sentiment. The Dollar is also correlating inversely with global stock markets. These factors appear to be outweighing recent ECB signalling about its concerns about euro strength, which partly counterbalances the easing measures implemented earlier in the year. The Pound has rallied to six-day highs against both the Dollar and Euro.

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Cable‘s high is 1.2976. The gains in the UK currency have been concurrent with market narratives showing a measure of incredulity about the UK government’s insistence that it is serious about its threat to leave the EU’s single market at year-end without a new trade deal, given the massive near-term disruptive impact it would have on the economy and the divisions appearing within the Conservative Party and among UK nations. Even though the controversial Internal Market Bill sailed through the House of Commons, the proposed legislation is likely to have a tougher time in the House of Lords, and in any case there are suspicions that the legislation is merely a gambit of PM Johnson and his cabinet to up the ante and strengthen their negotiating position into the final weeks of talks. This fits with expectations that a more practical attitude will be seen in trade negotiations once state leaders become directly involved in the run-in to the October 15th-16th EU summit. This backdrop has lessened the bearish conviction markets have with regard to the Pound.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 17, 2020

Date : 17th September 2020.

The Guppy dips to 135.00, having stalled at 136.00.

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GBPJPY, Daily

Both the UK and Japan are in the middle of political upheavals, (the Brexit Trade talks and Internal Market Bill on one side and the handover from one political dynasty to his trusted lieutenant on the other. Earlier today we had the BOJ signalling No Change to current policy as the new PM Suga completes his first few days in the role. The BOE has just published their statement¹ and minutes from their latest meeting, and again it’s no change across the board, (excuse the pun), although the spectre of negative interest rates in the UK is more firmly “in the toolbox” than ever before. The BOE continues to negotiate the tricky ground around monetary policy with the backdrop of deteriorating UK-EU relations and the likelihood of PM Johnson overseeing a very limited trade deal with the EU, if one is agreed at all. The Brexit endgame showdown is very much “in-play”.

BOE highlights include – “stands ready to adjust monetary policy”, and to
“keep under review the range of actions” – taken as a nod to possible negative rates next year with the statement that the MPC has been briefed on the BoE’s plans to explore how a negative bank rate could be implemented effectively. It also “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

Cable continues to rotate around 1.2900 today, whilst EURGBP jumped from 0.9090 to 0.9150 and GBPJPY plunged to 135.00 a level not seen since July 20, some 42 trading days ago.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 18, 2020

Date : 18th September 2020.

FX Update September 18 – A volatile 24hrs.

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The Dollar has scraped out a two-day low at 92.76 in the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex, with EURUSD concurrently pegging a two-day high at 1.1868, gaining quite sharply from yesterday’s five-week low at 1.1736. A steadying in stock markets today has seen the Dollar ebb back after finding safe haven demand during the worst of this week’s sharp sell-off across global equity markets.

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The Pound has come under modest pressure against most other currencies. Cable posted an intraday low at 1.2941. The WHO is warning of a serious second wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe¹ (Germany recorded 2,179 cases yesterday) on the back of a surge in new cases (despite data showing a continued very low rate of death alongside a relatively low incidence of Covid being listed on death certificates). In the UK, coronavirus cases and, with it, corona-panic are surging. Localised lockdowns are now affecting 10 million people in the UK, and the government’s scientific advisory group are, according to an FT report, advising the government to implement a two-week national lockdown. The embattled Health Secretary (Matt Hancock) this morning called it a “last line of defence” but “will do whatever is necessary”. This is a negative backdrop for the Pound, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit endgame, and with the minutes from the BoE MPC meeting yesterday affirming that the central bank is at full steam on contingency planning for negative interest rates (although stressing that it is not ready to do so yet).

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Elsewhere, USDJPY has settled in the mid 104.00s, testing the seven-week low seen yesterday at 104.52. Yen crosses have also rebounded out of lows. Both EURJPY and AUDJPY lifted above their respective Thursday highs. Japan’s core CPI came in at -0.4%y/y, matching expectations, but the NZDJPY was the biggest mover, moving over +0.6% as the Kiwi holds its bid.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 21, 2020

Date : 21st September 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

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After an exciting week, the markets continue to digest central bank decisions while waiting for a fresh catalyst. Rising virus infections around the world remain in focus as there is the fear that the equality of hospitalization and deaths will change if the virus spreads from young holiday markets to older generations, and with restrictions ramped up again there is concern that economic activity will be hit again. Meanwhile US-China tensions and no-trade deal Brexit is back in play after BoE was briefed on negative rates. Markets will also be guided by hard economic data.

Monday – 21 September 2020

Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) –The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

Tuesday – 22 September 2020

RBA’s Debelle, BoE’s Governor Bailey and Fed Chair’s Powell speech

Wednesday – 23 September 2020

Interest Rate Decision & Policy Report (NZD, GMT 02:00) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the OCR (Official Cash Rate) at the current record low 0.25%. RBNZ Governor Orr, speaking in the first week of September, stressed again that the central bank is actively preparing a new package of measures to implement if necessary. That could include negative wholesale interest rates, further quantitative easing and direct lending to banks. The RBNZ is in the low-for-longer whatever-it-takes boat with the bulk of the world’s central banks.
Markit Services and Composite PMIs (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prelim. EU Markit PMI Indices are expected to continue above 50, but slightly decline on Services, which could result in a composite PMI for September at 51.6 from 51.7.
Markit Services and Composite PMIs (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The prelim. UK Markit Service PMI Indices is expected to have improved in September to 59.5. The ongoing recovery in the service sector could continue to be the dominant upward driver of the composite figure. The government’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme is behind the so far strength in activity.
Markit Services and Composite PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – The prelim. US Markit Service PMI for September is seen lower at 54.9, after the 55.0 in the final read for August. In August the composite index dipped to 54.6 in the final version versus the 54.7 preliminary, though it’s up from July’s 50.3.
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BOJ minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

Thursday – 24 September 2020

Interest Rate Decision & Policy Report (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The influence of the SNB’s intervening hand may have been in play this month. Total Swiss sight deposits of Francs have risen by 130 bln since the pandemic and consequential lockdowns took a grip on global markets back in March. Sight deposits can be viewed as a proxy marker of SNB intervention to sell Francs in forex markets (after buying foreign currencies), which results in the crediting of newly created Francs in commercial banks sight accounts. The rise in sight deposits also reflects SNB operations to boost liquidity via the COVID-19 refinancing facility. The advent of the EU’s recovery fund (a new liquid AAA fund that also reduces Eurozone breakup risks), seen as a milestone by many analysts, has by many accounts caused a re-weighting of the common currency in portfolios, which will help the SNB combat what it sees as a chronically overvalued Franc. The SNB would like to step out of the negative interest rate policy sooner rather than later, but with the world economy still in the grip of Covid-19 and data releases highlighting the fallout from the crisis, there is little the central bank can do if it wants to keep the currency under control.
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to rise to 94 from 92.6 in August.
Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims fell -33k to 860k in the week ended September 12 after a revised 893k print in the September 5 week. This is the fourth reading with claims below 1 mln since the surge in the March 20 week.
BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 14:00)

Friday – 25 September 2020

Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% in August with a 3.1% climb in transportation orders, after an 11.4% headline orders climb in July that included a 35.7% transportation orders surge. The durable orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 1.5%. Defense orders are pegged at 0.9%, following a 33.4% July pop. Boeing orders rose to 8 planes from zero orders in July. The vehicle assembly rate should improve to 12.1 mln from 11.9 mln units in July, versus a 0.1 mln trough in April. Durable shipments should rise 2.5%, and inventories should fall -0.6%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 22, 2020

Date : 22nd September 2020.

FX Update September 22 – USD, YEN, AUD & GBP all in play.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

AUDJPY, Daily
The Dollar and Yen have remained firm and pushed ahead of Monday’s highs. The Australian Dollar has been the major mover of note out of the main currencies we track, falling to new lows after RBA deputy governor Debelle said that the central bank is watching the currency “carefully” and that forex intervention is a policy option, as is negative interest rates (while stressing that this doesn’t mean it’s on the table). AUDUSD hit a low at 0.7177 to post a new four-week low, while AUDJPY posted a fresh seven-week low at 75.10. Elsewhere, EURUSD moved lower to post a new seven-week low at 1.1724. Cable also remained heavy, pushing to 1.2710, before recovering the 1.2800 handle following Governor Bailey’s defence of the need to use negative interest rates. The governor said that “we have looked very hard” at ways of adding further monetary stimulus, including negative interest rates. Bailey, who was speaking at the British Chambers of Commerce, subsequently said that last week’s note in the minutes from the MPC meeting, that members had been briefed on negative interest rate preparations, “did not imply” that the BoE would adopt negative rates. This seemed to inspire the snap back in the Pound. USDJPY settled in the mid 104.00s after rebounding out of yesterday’s six-month low at 104.00, and what appears to be BOJ intervention. EURJPY also traded above yesterday’s low, though ebbed back under 123.00 after peaking at a rebound high at 123.35. GBPJPY broke below 133.00 briefly, but rallied to hold 134.00, following the Governor’s comments.

A risk-off theme has continued in global markets, although price changes in assets and currencies have moderated somewhat today relative to yesterday. This backdrop is supportive for the Dollar and Yen, though some market narratives are pointing to a rise in some inflation-adjusted (aka real) JGB yields as being yen positive. Japanese markets reopened from a long weekend. The Nikkei 225 managed a modest gain, but this was the exception as most Asian markets continued to drop, and some quite sharply (South Korea’s KOPSI, for instance, racking up a loss of over 2.5%). S&P 500 minis have also declined in its overnight session, although only moderately. Most commodity prices have managed to steady, however, and the pace of declines in global stocks has, overall, lessened. Nonetheless, the prevailing bias across markets is one of caution. Many European countries are implementing restrictions in the face of a surging coronavirus case-demic (still no significant correspondence in public health issues, i.e. hospitalisations, mortality), which has clobbered stocks in the airline and hospitality sectors. The US Congress remains deadlocked over the size and shape of a new fiscal support bill, while uncertainty about the upcoming US election (6 calendar weeks but only 31 trading days away) is also causing market participants to tread cautiously.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 23, 2020

Date : 23rd September 2020.

FX Update – September 23 – Day 3 of Dollar Gains.

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EURUSD, H1
The Dollar is up for a third consecutive day, even managing gains against the Yen as global stock markets lifted out of recent correction lows. Solid US data yesterday, including the August existing home sales and the September Richmond Fed index, have been in the mix, alongside a flurry of dovish signalling from central bank policymakers. BoJ Governor Kuroda earlier stressed that the Fed’s recent policy regime change is similar to the stance the Japanese central bank took in 2016, which he described as an overshooting strategy. He said that the BoJ won’t hesitate to take additional easing steps if necessary. Policymakers at the ECB, BoE and RBA have been similarly ramping up dovish signalling in the wake of the Fed’s move in late August, not wanting to see their respective currencies rise against the Dollar in these disinflationary times. ECB’s Mersch is the latest, cited by Bloomberg today saying that it is obvious that the exchange rate influences inflation.

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Expectations for the RBA to cut rates again are also cementing, which has been concomitant with recent declines in iron ore and other commodity prices. The flagging pace in global economic growth is marring the outlook for resources, which is the prime influencer of the export-oriented Australian economy’s terms of trade. Westpac analysts are expecting an easing at the October 6th RBA policy review, while a NAB research note is calling for a rate cut at either the October or November meetings. AUDUSD dropped 0.6% in posting a six-week low at 0.7113, extending losses from last week’s highs around 0.7350. AUDJPY fell by 0.5%, foraying further into 10-week low terrain. The USD Index (DXY) printed an eight-week high at 94.24, while EURUSD lifted to an eight-week low at 1.1673. USD-PY edged above 105.00. Cable hit a two-month low at 1.2681, marking a 6% decline from the high seen in early September. The Pound also saw moderate declines versus the Euro and Yen, among other currencies, amid a bearish mix of new Covid restrictions in the UK, the upcoming expiry of the government’s wage support scheme, and Brexit endgame uncertainties.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 24, 2020

Date : 24th September 2020.

US Claims Disappoint, again & Equities under pressure.

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USA500, H1 & Daily

A 4,000 initial claims rise to 870,000 in the third week of September followed a -27,000 drop to 866,000 in the BLS survey week, leaving a disappointing rise as we now log the fourth week with the new additive seasonal factors. We saw a -167,000 continuing claims drop to a modestly higher than expected 12.58 million in the BLS survey week, after a downward bump that left a -797,000 decline to 12.747 million in the first week of September. The insured jobless rate fell to 8.6% from 8.7%, versus a 17.1% peak in the second week of May and a 1.2% cycle-low for nearly two years ending in mid-March.

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Initial claims are averaging 875,000 thus far in September, versus higher prior averages of 992,000 in August and 1.34 million in July. The 866,000 BLS survey week reading undershot prior BLS survey week readings of 1.104 million in August and 1.422 million in July. We saw a 4.442 million peak in April and a 203,000 prior cycle-low in April of 2019. We now have a continuing claims drop of -1.912 million between the August and September BLS survey weeks, though this measure is clouded by the seasonal adjustment switch that left one procedure for the August figure and another for September. We saw prior declines of -2.459 million in August, -2.28 million in July, and -1.61 million in June. September nonfarm payroll consensus remains around 900,000, though today’s data adds some risk to the forecasts and could be amended into next week.

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The US Equity markets, which have seen Futures under pressure all day following yesterday’s significant declines (Nasdaq closed down by over 3% and the S&P 500 lost over 2.3%) are weaker again, with the USA500 trading at 3230 in early trades, 30 points above the key 3200 support level, but still 130 points above the vital 200-day moving average at 3,100.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · September 29, 2020

Date : 29th September 2020.

Time for the first face-off.

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The first presidential debate is due to take place today, ahead of an election that is turning into a major event risk.

At the same time markets are waiting for developments on further US stimulus measures as US Democrats released a USD 2.2 trillion proposal in a bid to break the deadlock in talks with Republicans. The debate is at 01:00 GMT while the focus turns on any potential market fallout especially as it coincides with indications of a possible approval of the fiscal stimulus but crucial with the approach of month- and quarter-end which could exacerbate volatility.

Additionally in the US this week, there is also the threat of massive layoffs/furloughs from the airlines come October 1 as the CARES package provisions expire. Data remains thin for now. September consumer confidence headlines Tuesday, and is followed Wednesday with the ADP private payroll report, September ISM, vehicle sales, August income and consumption. Thursday has the high frequency jobless claims before Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls release.

Now in regards to tonight’s debate, the importance of it does not rely solely due to the fact that is the every first debate but mainly because it might present the clear winner especially this year in which the candidates have not been as highly visible with limited campaigns done because of Covid-19.

The candidates will be questioned for 90 minutes, without commercial breaks, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates. Ahead of the debate the vulnerable one look to be Trump following a New York time report that the president paid no income tax for 11 years. However is an excellent brutally effective debater so it will interesting to see how he will overcome any attacks. Please note that in some states voting has already started via mail or in person.

The debate will take place at Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, while the topics selected by Wallace, moderator of the first 2020 presidential debate, are the:

The Trump and Biden Records
The Supreme Court
Covid-19
The Economy
Race and Violence in our Cities
The Integrity of the Election

Below you can also find the latest national polls prior the debate.

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Based on UBS research below we enclose the campaign policy platform of each Party:
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What is the 2020 Republican Party platform?
President Trump abandoned the usual practice of endorsing a lengthy campaign policy platform in conjunction with the GOP national nominating convention. Instead, he released an abbreviated written agenda for a planned second term in office. The GOP policy statement is largely aspirational, with fewer details than one is accustomed to seeing from a presidential candidate. The president’s proposed fiscal policies include additional tax cuts for individuals and federal tax credits and deductions for corporations that repatriate jobs to the US from overseas locations. The statement also explicitly supports additional capital gains tax relief through an expansion of the Opportunity Zone program.

Numerous provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, but the president does not discuss how the resulting tax hikes will be averted. Absent additional congressional action, the individual income tax cuts, an increase in the standard deduction, and the expanded child tax credit will all revert to prior levels in just over five years. Voters are left to assume that the president will be able to convince Congress to make the tax cuts permanent.

The policy statement, which was released in conjunction with his acceptance speech, also focuses on the adoption of a more adversarial posture toward China, strict enforcement of immigration laws, and support for law enforcement personnel. While all three are viewed by the GOP as winning campaign strategies, the reference to “ending our reliance on China” suggests that the president is willing to continue to use tariffs as a tool of foreign policy if elected to a second term. He has threatened to selectively impose tariffs upon, and to strip government contracts from, companies that refuse to relocate their operations to the US.

Meanwhile, in a rare instance of tacit agreement with his challenger, the president reaffirmed a desire to cut prescription drug prices, lower healthcare insurance premiums, and require coverage of all preexisting conditions. On the whole, the impact of the president’s policies on Treasury receipts (and on the US economy generally) is difficult to calculate. Whether or not this is purposeful is debatable, but the inevitable conclusion is that a second Trump administration would be similar to the first and forced to rely on deficit financing to accomplish its goals.

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What is the 2020 Democratic Party platform?
In contrast to the president’s abridged policy statement, the Democratic Party platform is a protracted recitation of policies as disparate as the need for federal bankruptcy reform, a Green New Deal, and reinvestment in rural America. The Biden campaign has not released a consolidated fiscal plan but instead weaved his call for higher taxes to partially fund a series of spending proposals related to infrastructure investment, climate change, and an expansion of healthcare coverage. At its core, however, the Biden campaign is focused on strengthening the federal regulatory regime, reversing many of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and increasing federal funding of long-time Democratic policy priorities.

The former vice president advocates an increase in the highest marginal tax rate to 39.6%, and higher payroll taxes for individuals earning more than USD 400,000 a year. He also proposes to tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income for taxpayers earning more than USD 1 million. The corporate tax rate is targeted for an increase, albeit less than the rate prevalent before the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The corporate tax rate would increase from 21% to 28%, and an alternative minimum tax of 15% would be levied on companies that report more than USD 100 million in book income.

The Democratic campaign platform also takes aim at the estate tax by recommending a reduction in the exemption to USD 3.5 million and the elimination of the stepped-up basis rule. Tax preferences for the fossil fuel industry would be eliminated, while those for energy efficiency would be increased. With the exception of the payroll tax increase, most of Biden’s fiscal policy platform could be implemented with a majority vote in the Senate through budget reconciliation.

The Tax Policy Center has estimated that Biden’s tax proposals would increase federal revenue by about USD 4 trillion between 2021 and 2030, or 1.5% of GDP over a decade.1 Roughly half of the revenue gain would be derived from higher taxes on US households, with the remainder coming from businesses and corporations. The Tax Foundation expects the Biden tax plan to reduce after-tax income for the top 1% of taxpayers by 7.8%. The top 5% would see their after-tax income drop by 1.1%, with diminishing reductions thereafter as income declines.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

HFblogNews · September 30, 2020

Date : 30th September 2020.

ADP, NFP and the change in their correlation.

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Today ADP reported a 749k sure in private payroll employment in September, almost double the 400k expectation, after an upwardly revised 481k (was 428k) increase in August.

There were solid gains across industries. The service sector added another 552k jobs, with the goods sector adding 196k. Manufacturing jobs were up a hefty 130k. In services, trade/transport posted a big 186k gain, while leisure/hospitality jobs increased 92k, and education/health employment was up 90k. Professional/business services added 78k jobs. The ADP gains have massively undershot improvement in BLS payrolls and other labor market indicators since the growth rebound began, suggesting that this could continue despite this month’s solid gain. However please note that during the pandemic year ADP has done an awful job as an indicator of NFP number. In general after since May we have seen the absence of correlation between the ADP employment change figures with Nonfarm Payrolls.

The September Nonfarm Payroll gain is seen at 900k, as most measures of output extended their rebounds in September. Initial claims have slowly tightened, and we saw another big -1,912k continuing claims plunge between the August and September BLS survey weeks. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady from 8.4%, alongside a 0.8% September hours-worked increase with a 34.6 workweek and hourly earnings to be unchanged, following August’s 0.4% rise, as the measure gives back more of the 4.7% April pop with the shift in the composition of jobs back toward lower-paid workers. The nonfarm payroll forecast assumes a 1,075k private jobs increase.

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Seasonal Trends and Weather

For disruptions to employment from weather as gauged in the household survey, the biggest disruptions occur in the winter months generally with the average peaking in February. There is an additional climb through the late-summer months due to disruptive hurricanes in some years. This September has seen hurricane activity but they’ve been less disruptive than some of the major events in years past, leaving modest upside weather-risk for payrolls. Of course, any weather related disruptions will be eclipsed by COVID-19.

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Hourly Earnings

As stated above, a flat figure for September average hourly earnings is anticipated, after gains of 0.4% in August and 0.2% in July, but drops of -1.3% in June and -1.1% in May, as we further unwind the 4.7% April surge. Job losses have been skewed toward lower paid retail, leisure and hospitality workers, and this prompted the April spike in average hourly earnings that is now being reversed. A 4.6% y/y increase in September from 4.7% in August is forecasted.

Continuing and Initial Claims

Continuing claims fell -1,912k between the September and August BLS survey weeks, after a drop of -2,459k between August and July, and a -2,280k drop between June and July survey. The economy is unwinding the 24,912k continuing claims peak in the second week of May. Initial claims fell to 866k in the September BLS survey week from 1,104k in the August survey week, and 1,422k in the July survey week. The September initial claims anticipate to average at 870k from 992k in August.

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Conclusion

Employment should rose further with output in September, despite delayed stimulus and ongoing disruptions in the re-opening process. The September hours-worked is expected to increase of 0.8%, with a 34.6 workweek, while hourly earnings remain flat. The jobless rate should hold steady at 8.4%, leaving the rate below the 9.98% cycle-high from the last recession in October of 2009.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 1, 2020

Date : 1st October 2020.

Brexit headlines driving the markets.

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The UK currency took a sharp rotation lower on Brexit related developments. Weighing were reports that the EU and UK are struggling on key issues in trade negotiations, and with the European Commission president von de Leyen announcing that the EU has taken the first step in a legal infringement procedure against the UK in relation to the controversial Internal Market Bill. However later on an FT report cited UK officials with inside knowledge saying that the EU and UK have reached a compromise on the state aid issue, contrary to an earlier Reuters article, which had cited EU sources. Fishing rights remains a sticking point, apparently.

The EU recovery fund is likely to be delayed just as nearly all European countries are ratcheting up Covid restrictions. And this comes amid the ECB campaign of verbal intervention to keep a lid on the Euro. Similar messaging from other central banks, including the BoE and RBA, has also contributed to an overall weakening in the strongly bearish Dollar bias that forex market participants had until recently. The rhetorical interjections countervail the impact of the Fed’s regime shift to a lower-for-longer stance on interest rates.

In Europe, positive Covid test results have continued to soar in most countries. Covid hospitalisations and mortality, while bumping higher over the last week in many countries, still remain at basement levels relative to the March/April peak. The ratio between Covid-caused death and flu- and pneumonia-caused death also remains low, again contrasting markedly to the March/April situation. Nonetheless, the trend in most countries in Europe is for tighter restrictions and more localized lockdowns, which should limit the upside scope of the Euro.

EURUSD earlier posted a 9-day high at 1.1769. EURJPY gained, too, with both the Dollar and Yen having softened amid a backdrop of mostly higher global stock markets. EURGBP dove about 90 pips in returning to levels around 0.9065-75. Heads of state will bring the issue to a resolution at the October 15th-16th EU summit. The odds for a deal being struck now appear much greater, though how extensive any deal will be remains uncertain, and there is a risk that the UK will see a downward jolt in its terms of trade when it leaves the EU’s single market on January 1.

[IMG]

European stock markets have pared early gains. The UK100 outperformed as the Pound sold off and the UK Gilt future is currently down by 0.2%, while the GER30 underperformed and lost most of its early gains amid the rise in local virus case numbers and with Bayer AG under pressure after a profit warning. This comes in contrast to the European final manufacturing PMIs, which confirmed the improvement in sentiment.

The UKGilt has had a key downside move that is potentially outlook changing, breaking the 200-Day MA and resuming the 2-month downtrend. The UKGilt is heading towards the support band 135.30/135.00. The rebound from 134.20 to 136.98 last week is now the medium term resistance area. Given the deterioration in momentum we have seen, with RSI into the 40s and MACD lines sustaining a move into negative area, the outlook is becoming increasingly worrying for the bulls. If this 200-Day MA at 136 continues to be seen as a sell zone, the downside pressure will grow. Initial Support, at 50% Retracement level on year’s rally and 50-week SMA, is a key level. If this is breached on a closing basis it would open 132.80-132.00 which is the year’s low area, however a strong obstacle will be the 61.8% fib level at 134.00. How the market reacts around 134.00 would then be the key as to whether this is a near term upswing or something far more bearish.

Generally though investor sentiment was boosted by headlines suggesting progress on the next US stimulus package, and US futures are up 0.8 to 1.3%, with the USA100 outperforming. The vote on the Democratic proposal was delayed to give negotiators more time to come up with a compromise deal as Fed officials warn against delaying a new aid deal until next year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 2, 2020

Date : 2nd October 2020.

FX Update October 2 – Ahead of NFP.

[IMG]

USDJPY, H1
The Yen has rallied versus other currencies amid a pronounced risk-off positioning theme in global markets on news that President Trump, along with the First Lady and White House public relations counsellor, have tested positive for Covid.

S&P 500 E-minis are 1.4% lower, and Asian & European stock markets have also taken a hit. USDJPY dove by over 0.5% in pegging a low at 104.94. EURJPY fell to a four-day low and the high beta AUDJPY cross plummeted by over 1% to two-day lows under 75.00.

[IMG]

Following the positive Covid test news, Trump’s age and health is an added item on a growing worry list. Trump is now self-isolating, and at the least his pre-election campaigning will be greatly curtailed. The next Presidential debate is scheduled for October 15. CDC data shows a 94.6% survival rate for people over 70, though presumably this is better for people in their early-to-mid 70s, like Trump, as the data will be skewed by people over 80, who are at greater risk.

[IMG]

Among other currencies, EURUSD dipped to a two-day low at 1.1694 before rebounding quite sharply to a 1.1738 peak. Cable saw a similar price action, bouncing out of a low at 1.2838 and rallying 100+ pips to 1.2952 following news of a meeting between UK PM Johnson and European Commission President Von der Leyen scheduled for tomorrow. AUDUSD posted a two-day low at 0.7132. USDCAD lifted back above 1.3300 and matched yesterday’s peak at 1.3329.

[IMG]

In Japan, August unemployment came in at 3.0%, matching expectations and having no impact. Chinese and South Korean markets remained closed. Ahead, the flash September estimate of Eurozone CPI is up, where we expect a -0.4% y/y outcome after -0.2% y/y in the prior month. In the US, the September payrolls report is up. We expect it to show a continued rebound as workers have returned to work, but there will still be a net drop in employment for 2020 overall. Political negotiations on a new fiscal relief package in the US remain ongoing. The mood music has improved somewhat, with some Republicans eager to strike a deal with the Democrats before the November 3 elections. The Covid situation in Europe remains a concern, with the new case rate high and new restrictions in one form or another being introduced seemingly daily in many countries.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews · October 5, 2020

Date : 5th October 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.

[IMG]

The announcement on Friday that US President Trump, the First Lady and White House counsel Hope Hicks had all tested Covid positive rattled market sentiment. This comes on top of many European countries renewing travel restrictions and quarantine measures and introducing new virus measures and regional lockdowns. Globally, concerns that the still fragile recovery will be disrupted have left markets looking for additional monetary and fiscal support, with the latter once again lagging while central banks are keeping their options open. Hence, the week’s focus will remain on the health of the President and wider virus issues, and concerns the recovery is losing momentum. The US Presidential Elections, surprisingly, may take a back seat, while from a data perspective, the FOMC minutes and RBA rate statements are the week’s top releases.

Monday – 05 October 2020

Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Retail sales across Europe are expected to show a bounce back during August as many markets opened and in limited numbers, Europeans went on holiday. MoM growth is expected to turn positive (0.9%) from -1.3% in July whilst the YoY figure is expected to rise to 0.6% from 0.4% in July.
ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – Services data, the bedrock of high income countries’ economic data, for the US is expected to slip slightly this month to 56.0 from the August reading of 56.9 and the July reading of 58.1.

Tuesday – 06 October 2020

Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Tuesday’s import/export and trade balance data will likely show a continued decline, with Australia’s second city Melbourne (and the wider state of Victoria) starting to emerge from a second strict lockdown.
Event of the Week – RBA Interest Rate Decision & Statement (AUD, GMT 03:30) No change in interest rates from the RBA is expected and as with other central banks the mantra of lower for longer will persist. What will be of interest is the Bank’s perspective on moving lower still and the possibility of negative interest rates before year end.

Wednesday – 07 October 2020

Event of the Week II – FOMC Minutes – (USD, GMT 18:00) – The minutes from the Sept 15-16 meeting are likely to show no major surprises and confirm the shift to average inflation targeting. The reference to the measures taken to contain the virus continued to have substantial impacts on economic activity. The view on inflation is that the negative effects from COVID-19 on aggregate demand have more than offset upward price pressures.

Thursday – 08 October 2020

Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Last week there was better than expected numbers for the first time in 3 weeks with claims coming in at 837K, some 13k under 850k expectations. Today a further fall to 825k could be expected.
BOC’s Governor Macklem (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Governor is expected to re-iterate the Banks view of aggressive stimulus posture, reiterating forward guidance and the continuation of its QE program until “the recovery is well underway.”

Friday – 09 October 2020

GDP (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Following the unexpectedly higher than forecast rise in July to 6.6%, monthly UK GDP is expected to fall under 6% to 5.7% for August.
Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Little change is expected in this month’s employment data, which is expected to show a 15.6K decline from 245.8k last time to 230.2k today. The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 10.2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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