Market Outlook By Commexfx

[Commexfx 10]

The advance estimate of US Q2 GDP may affect the Euro in a big way today as can the FOMC decision. With Dollar Index reaching close to the 8-10 months old supply zone in 81.40-50, anything is possible now including a short term top for the Dollar. Keep cautious tonight.

 

Euro (1.3411) is testing the 200 week MA and the FOMC decision today may decide if it will hold or not right now though Euro looks ready for a journey to 1.33 or 1.31 in the next few days. Any attempt to bounce will face supply from 1.3475-1.3500.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.12) is trading close to the resistance of 102.25-30 with no strong bias and the price action here may decide if it will rise towards 102.80 or return to 101.50-10 levels. Euro-Yen (136.97) is trading sideways in 1.3630-1.3730 on the back of equally weakening Euro and a weak Yen but it may still drop further if fails to overcome 1.3770 levels in the coming days.

 

Pound (1.6949) has created a Marubozu weekly candle with strong bearish implication in the short term. If the prior pattern is maintained, then this ongoing correction may end near 1.6890-75 levels before reversing for another new high.

 

Aussie (0.9381) has been rejected from the higher levels just as expected and the 5-week long band of 0.9320-0.9500 may continue for a few more days.

 

Gold (1299.63) is trading lower. The correction that started from 1345 is still not over and has some room on the downside towards 1280.5. Long term bearishness is still in force while below 1350-1400. Falling to1280-1260 seems a possibility in the longer run.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 31-07-2014

 

The US GDP information brought more cheer for the Dollar bulls all over yet maybe the time for some alert is here with the Dollar Index still not able to convincingly exchange over the 10 month safety of 81.50 and the Sterling hinting at inversion. A transient top in Dollar and a fleeting base in Euro? Let watch.

 

Euro (1.3399) is immovably exchanging beneath the 200 week MA now and any remedial ricochet may confront safety at first at 1.3415-45 and afterward 1.3475-1.3500. It searches prepared for a voyage to 1.33 or 1.31 in the following few days.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.76) hit a 3 month high at 103.09 after the US information yet may think that it hard to climb further to 103.50-104. A sideways move in the extended scope of 101.-103 looks more likely now. Euro-Yen (137.68) bounced higher on the over of a forcefully debilitated Yen however for real quality, a break over 1.3850 is essential.

 

Pound (1.6949) is attempting to turn around precisely from our target level of 1.6890 and keeping with the prior example, we may finish up forcefully that the amendment has finished. Purchasers may rise here with a stoploss underneath 1.6885 for a fabulous danger reward degree.

 

Aussie (0.9327) hit a 3 month low at 0.93 levels and unless it figures out how to exchange over 0.9350-60 soon, the bears may endeavor to push it down to 0.9250 levels. At this time, the whole more extensive band of 0.9250-0.9550 is grinding away.

 

Gold (1294.69) has additionally dropped after better US GDP turned out and the US values went down. Right now exchanging simply over 1292.8, it may head towards 1280.5. Long haul bearishness is still in power while underneath 1350-1400. Falling to1280-1260 appears a plausibility in the more extended run.

[Commexfx 10]

Except the Aussie and the Pound, no other currency moved much. Yen may weaken further but keep an eye on Aussie, where the drop is surprising in the context of a violent rise in Chinese equities.

 

Euro (1.3388) is taking a pause in the form of a Triangle and looks set for a drop to 1.33 in the next 1-2 sessions. Any corrective bounce may face resistance initially at 1.3415-45 and then 1.3475-1.3500.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.89) is trading in the range of 101-103 as expected but now it may attempt the difficult rise to 103.50-104 if it manages to sustain above 102.80. Euro-Yen (137.75) is consolidating in the higher levels and may rise to test the resistance area of 1.3830-50, above which the door to 1.39 will open.

 

Pound (1.6857), contrary to expectations, has broken below the support of 1.6890 and now 1.6830 must provide support or else the 9-month uptrend may get threatened.

 

Aussie (0.9291) could not get back above 0.9350 as required for the

bulls and as a result, it has come down to the major channel support of 0.9250 as expected which must hold to protect the uptrend.

 

Gold (1283.79) extends its fall further towards our target of 1280 and a break below may see 1260 levels. Near term is bearish. Silver (20.39) is also on a downfall targeting 20.108 in the near term. No scope for bulls to be seen for now.

[Commexfx 10]

While the lower than anticipated US NFP information has debilitated the Dollar, the Indian Rupee holds up for the RBI meet tomorrow. About all the EM monetary standards are confronting solid backings, which must be broken to fortify the Dollar once more.

 

Euro (1.3418) ricocheted higher in opposition to desires yet to grow the bob, it must break over 1.3450. The ECB meet later this week may bring some short blanket however the significant pattern remains immovably down and set for lower targets.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.67) is exchanging the scope of 101-103 not surprisingly yet now it may in any case endeavor the troublesome ascent to 103.50-104 on the off chance that it figures out how to manage over 102.35-25. Euro-Yen (137.76) is merging in the larger amounts and may climb to test the safety zone of 1.3830-50, above which the way to 1.39 will open.

 

Pound (1.6825) has indicated the end of its 9-month long uptrend and now every restorative ascent may face offering weight at the larger amounts. A bob may be expected from this help band of 1.68-67, so watch out.

 

Aussie (0.9322) is stuck in the scope of 0.9350-0.9250 and unless it figures out how to break this extend, no drifting move will develop and sideways value activity may predominate.

 

Gold (1292.58) appears to climb now however unless it breaks 1300-1350, bearish weight would exist for some more of a chance. While beneath 1300 shots of a fall towards 1280-1260 still exists. Silver (20.36) is steady for the time being showing a fall towards 20.10. Gold-Silver proportion (63.462) has forcefully climbed and in the event that it breaks 63.82 it may focus on 64.9-65 levels indicating an ascent for the metals.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 5-08-2014

 

All the worldwide coinage are in an insensible mode with exceptionally thin extends with the ECM get meeting up and this unaltered situation may be thought about the Rupee as well, anticipating the RBI meet toward the beginning of today.

 

Euro (1.3418) is exchanging a scope of 20-30 pips yet to amplify the ricochet, it must break over 1.3450. The ECB meet later this week may bring some short blanket yet the real pattern remains solidly down and set for lower targets.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.56) is exchanging the scope of 101-103 obviously yet now it may in any case endeavor the troublesome ascent to 103.50-104 on the off chance that it figures out how to maintain over 102.35-25. Euro-Yen (137.63) is uniting in the larger amounts and may climb to test the safety range of 1.3830-50, above which the avenue to 1.39 will open.

 

Pound (1.6863) bobbed of course however may think that it hard to handle the safety at 1.6890-6900 now. It has indicated the end of its 9-month long uptrend and now every restorative ascent may face offering weight at the larger amounts.

 

Aussie (0.9323) is stuck in the scope of 0.9350-0.9250 and unless it figures out how to break this run, no inclining move will develop and sideways value activity may predominate.

 

Gold (1288.98) is battling in the 1280-1300 area. Force stays low and the metal may keep on remainning extent bound this week. 1280 has been a pivotal backing and we have to check whether it can throw the metal to larger amounts.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 6-08-2014

 

The Dollar quality is pushing the metals lower and may proceed with so in the close term indicating bearishness for the metals. Oil markets are additionally exchanging low.

 

Euro (1.3368) is experiencing its disappointment to break over 1.3450 and has hit a new low at 1.3356. Unless 1.3450 is broken soon, the likelihood of it arriving at the help range of 1.33 will be stronger.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.53) is exchanging the scope of 101-103 not surprisingly however now it may even now endeavor the troublesome ascent to 103.50-104 on the off chance that it figures out how to manage over 102.35-25. Euro-Yen (137.06) descended in opposition to desire on the once again of a debilitated Euro. It can hit 136.40-05 now if Euro keeps on falling.

 

Pound (1.6876) ricocheted obviously yet may think that it hard to handle the safety at 1.6890-6900 now. It has indicated the end of its 9-month long uptrend and now every remedial ascent may face offering weight at the larger amounts.

 

Aussie (0.9298) is stuck in the scope of 0.9350-0.9250 and unless it figures out how to break this run, no drifting move will develop and sideways value activity may win.

 

Gold (1289.63) is steady and exchanging a bit higher. We may see a few sideways union in the close term in the 1280-1300 area and unless this extent breaks further heading can’t be dead set. General long haul pattern is down.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 7-08-2014

 

Notwithstanding Italian retreat, awful Germany Factory Orders, sanctions against Russia and dangers of Russian attack into Ukraine, the skip seen in Euro has bewildered all the dealers. Maybe simply a show of alert from Euro-bears before the enormous occasion of ECB meet today? Maybe QE is not nearing today?

 

Euro (1.3386) has skiped pointedly from 1.3330, near our help region of 1.33 however 1.3450-75 would be an extremely extreme obstacle to handle. The ECB meet toward the evening would be the pattern decider today.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.18) is exchanging the scope of 101-103 yet lost the bullish catalyst to endeavor the troublesome ascent to 103.50-104.the reach bound value activity doesn’t look like consummation whenever soon. Euro-Yen (136.78) ricocheted once again in the wake of accomplishing our focus of 136.40-05 as it made a low at 136.16. On the off chance that Euro can develop the skip, this pair may hope to test the real safety territory around 138 by and by.

 

Pound (1.6856) tried 1.6820 levels after a sharp dismissal from 1.6890-6900 not surprisingly. The following course relies on upon the BOE choice today and it would be better not to conjecture before that occasion.

 

Aussie (0.9281) is experiencing a horrendous selloff as its Unemployment rate hits a 12-year high and the Labor Force information takes on at -300 against the normal 13500. The value activity at the long haul help zone of 0.9250-0.92 may focus the medium term course and pattern.

 

Gold (1307.15) shot up yesterday on flaring strains over Ukraine expanding the interest for the metal. Yet in the more drawn out run the conceivable Dollar quality over Euro may get to be bearish for Gold. Need to lie low if the ascent manages and takes it higher towards 1330 or returns to lower levels of 1290 in the advancing sessions.

 

Silver (20.089) likewise climbed after the ECB Meeting yesterday, additionally skipping from vital backing close to 19.7. On the off chance that the help holds we may see an ascent towards 20 once more. General quick pattern is down.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 8-08-2014

 

QE didn’t show up of course and the majors didn’t do anything altogether diverse. There is checked contrast with the values in this portion in regards to the value activities.

 

Euro (1.3362) didn’t find any course significantly after the ECM meet and is stuck in the restricted scope of 1.3330-90. Sit tight for a breakout to run with the fleeting stream. All the bigger patterns stay down.

 

Dollar-Yen (101.81) is exchanging the scope of 101-103 yet lost the bullish catalyst to endeavor the troublesome ascent to 103.50-104.the extent bound value activity doesn’t look like closure whenever soon. Euro-Yen (136.01) is trying the real help zone of 136.00-135.75 after the Euro debilitated. A break underneath 135.75 would mean a conceivable adventure towards 134 levels.

 

Pound (1.6812) tried 1.68 levels after a sharp dismissal from 1.6890-6900 obviously. The BOE meet couldn’t influence the pattern or course in any critical way and all ricochets ought to be restricted to 1.69 levels in this firm downtrend.

 

Aussie (0.9256) is experiencing a horrible selloff as its Unemployment rate hits a 12-year high and the Labor Force information takes a swing at -300 against the normal 13500. The value activity at the long haul help zone of 0.9250-0.92 may focus the medium term heading and pattern.

 

Gold (1316.02) is climbing pointedly and if that maintains, it may focus on 1340-1350 in the close term. This may be an impermanent ascent and we might soon see a fall towards 1300 from 1340-1350 levels. Gold-WTI degree (13.48) is trying urgent safety close to 13.5 and that may push it towards 13-12.5 in the close term. That may indicate a bearish Gold perhaps after a few sessions.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 11-08-2014

 

The significant pattern may be down for about all the majors against the Dollar, yet in the short term, an exertion to assemble base is unmistakable, as apparent in Euro & Aussie. Fleeting energizes this week in the majors can’t be discounted.

 

Euro (1.3402) has made two week by week candles with long legs, recommending monstrous lack of engagement to go down. An endeavor to rally towards 1.3450-75 can’t be discounted however all the bigger patterns still stay down.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.15) is exchanging the scope of 101-and the extent bound value activity doesn’t look like closure at whatever time soon. Euro-Yen (136.89) ricocheted from precisely the significant help zone of 136.00-135.75 on the over of a stronger Euro. It may test 137.40-138.00 now however obliges a break over 138 to truly indicate any quality.

 

Pound (1.6781) has been making new lows not surprisingly yet now a restorative bob to 1.69 levels may be not that startling. A disappointment to bob would mean a prompt tumble to 1.6740-6700 levels.

 

Aussie (0.9284) has been pushed up by the long haul help zone of 0.9250-9200 and that secures the almost 5 month long scope of 0.92-0.95, which is not looking any indications of breaking yet. Expect safety at 0.9350-75.

 

Gold (1305.98) fell off from the every day channel safety close to 1333. A fall underneath 1300 may take it lower to 1280 however while over 1300-1305 we may expect an ascent towards 1340-1350 in the close term. Gold-WTI proportion (13.32) has descended a bit however is exchanging close significant safety of 13.5 which if holds may push it towards 13-12.5 in the close term. Gold may be bearish all things considered.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 12-08-2014

 

A quiet day for the currencies. Dollar gains a little against nearly all the majors.

 

Euro (1.3371) is weakening again and a break below 1.3370-60 will decrease the possibility of the expected rally towards 1.3450-75 considerably and increase the chances of testing 1.33 levels.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.30) is trading in the range of 101-and the range bound price action doesn't look like ending anytime soon. Euro-Yen (136.78) has been trading in a downward channel for the last few days and the range now may be modified to 135.75-138.00, which may not break without any major event.

 

Pound (1.6774) has been making new lows as expected but now a corrective bounce to 1.68-69 levels may be not that unexpected. A failure to bounce would mean an immediate fall to 1.6740-6700 levels.

 

Aussie (0.9259) is wandering about the long term support zone of 0.9250-9200 again, which defines the nearly 5 month long range of 0.92-0.95. Only a break below 0.92 would reverse the medium and long term trend to bearish.

 

Gold (1306.99) is ranged for now above 1305 but has a fair possibility of coming down to 1300-1290 in the coming sessions while the resistance near 1333 still holds. Silver (19.992) is ranged in the 19.7-20.108 region. No clarity is seen unless a break on either side of this range occurs. Gold-Silver ratio (65.345) came off sharply from 65.92 and may come down further towards 64.4 in the near term.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 13-08-2014

 

Euro proposes building a base and a comparative thing may be contended for the Sterling. Some Dollar shortcoming against the majors in the fleeting maybe?

 

Euro (1.3364) bears neglected to break 1.3330 notwithstanding the poor German information yesterday and perhaps that recommends inalienable quality in the short term. A breakout from this scope of 1.3300-1.3475 may make tremendous moves with the bullish alternative slowly picking up assurance.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.29) is exchanging the scope of 101-and the extent bound value activity doesn’t look like closure whenever soon. Euro-Yen (136.70) has been exchanging a descending channel for the last few days and the extent now may be adjusted to 135.75-138.00, which may not break without any significant occasion.

 

Pound (1.6804) has given the beginning skip to 1.68 not surprisingly and a break over 1.6840 would indicate a further expansion to 1.69 as well however the drawback danger of testing 1.6740 remaining parts still open.

 

Aussie (0.9278) is meandering about the long haul help zone of 0.9250-9200 once more, which characterizes the almost 5 month long scope of 0.92-0.95. Just a break beneath 0.92 would switch the medium and long haul pattern to bearish.

 

Gold (1308.47) is gone until further notice over 1305 and may focus on 1300-1290 in the nearing sessions from where we may see an upward revision. Silver (19.964) keeps on remainning went in the 19.7-20.108 district. As said prior, no clarity is seen unless a break on either side of this extent happens. Gold-Silver proportion (65.529) is exchanging inside 65.7-65.083 and in the event that it breaks lower may focus on 64.4 in the close term. Long haul is pattern is down.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 14-08-2014

 

The BOE Governor almost wrecked the Pound when he hosed the shots of a rate trek not long from now and proposed that the pace of rate climb is going to be slower than the business desire. As an immediate result Dollar has discovered some quality.

 

Euro (1.3357) is stuck in a contracting reach taking a triangular shape, with limits having a go at 1.3450 and 1.3330. We are as of now following for a breakout from the scope of 1.3300-1.3450 that may make colossal moves.

 

Dollar-Yen (102.58) is exchanging the scope of 101-103 and the extent bound value activity doesn’t look like completion at whatever time soon. Euro-Yen (137.04) has been approaching the upper end of its descending channel on the again of powerless Yen yet the scope of 135.75-138.00 may not break without any significant occasion.

 

Pound (1.6680) slammed precisely from our safety at 1.6840 to hit a 4 month low at 1.6670, past our target levels of 1.6740-6700. Holding over 1.6660-20, some short blanket may rise however the following significant help comes route deeper around 1.64 levels.

 

Aussie (0.9297) ricocheted from the long haul help zone of 0.9250-9200 again and may broaden the skip on a break over 0.9310. The likelihood of the scope of 0.92-0.95 breaking any soon looks extremely thin at this minute.

 

Gold (1311.50) has been firmly gone with little moves in the 1310-1320 district. The 1305 level is going about as a decent backing for the time being keeping in mind that holds, the metal may keep on consolidaing sideways. A tumble to 1300-1290 is still a probability unless we see a break over 1320-1325.

 

Silver (19.846) keeps on remainning went in the 19.66-20.108 district however it may not enjoy it long to reprieve the 19.6 levels to develop its fall downwards to19-18.5. Gold-Silver proportion (66.046) is taking off high breaking over the 65.7 levels. On the off chance that this proceeds with it might soon focus on 67.5 in the close term. This may demonstrate that Silver may have some room on the drawback given that Gold stays stable.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 15-08-2014

 

GBP/USD managed sharp misfortunes a day prior. In financial news, US Unemployment Claims moved to 311 thousand, above desires. There are no British discharges on Thursday. The UK will discharge Second Estimate GDP on Friday, a key pointer.

 

AUD/USD: Aussie Continues With Its Gain In The Asian Session , For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD reinforced 0.14% against the USD to close at 0.9318. LME Copper costs declined 0.6% or $39.0/MT to $6886.5/MT. Aluminum costs declined 1.0% or $21.0/MT to $2005.0/MT.

 

USD/JPY worldwide rating org, Fitch Ratings demonstrated that the Japanese economy is “weathering” the late deals duty climb, further alerted that the compensation development is an imperative component in the country, which has neglected to build convincingly.in the Asian session, at Gmt0300, the pair is exchanging at 102.5, with the USD exchanging tad higher from yesterday’s nearby.

 

USD/CHF The pair is required to discover help at 0.9039, and a fall through could take it to the following help level of 0.9011. The pair is relied upon to think that its first safety at 0.9091, and an ascent through could take it to the following safety level of 0.9115.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 18-08-2014

 

EUR/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.3367, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3336. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.342, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3442.Going forward, trading trends in the Euro today would be governed by Euro-zone’s trade balance, scheduled in a few hours.

 

GBP/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.6694, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6658. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6749, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6768.Amid lack of economic releases from the UK today, trading trends in the Pound today would be governed by global news/events.

 

AUD/USD The pair is expected to find support at 0.9299, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.928. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9337, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9356.Amid lack of economic releases from Australia today, investors would keenly await tomorrow’s minutes of the latest RBA policy meeting.

 

USD/CHF The pair is expected to find support at 0.9009, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8990. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9059, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9090.

 

Daily Outlook 18-08-2014 | CommexFX

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 19-08-2014

 

The rally in stocks or selloff in bonds didn’t have any discernible effect in the Currencies. Nearly all of the majors except Sterling keep trading in ranges and a breakout is required to shake them out of this sleep.

 

EUR/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.3339, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3323. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3386, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3417.Amid a lack of major economic releases from the Euro-region, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by the inflation data from the US, scheduled later in the day.

 

GBP/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.6710, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6698. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6736, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6750.Going forward, investors today would look for the UK’s consumer prices data, scheduled in a few hours.

 

AUD/USD The pair is expected to find support at 0.9317, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9298. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9349, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9362.Going forward, investors would focus on the speech of RBA’s Governor, Glenn Stevens, scheduled to release in the mid-night.

 

USD/CHF The pair is expected to find support at 0.9039, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9007. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9088, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9105.

 

USD/CAD The pair is expected to find support at 1.0876, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0860. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0905, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0918.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 20-08-2014

 

EUR / USD

The EUR declined 0.30% against the USD and closed at 1.3321, after the Eurozone’s current account surplus narrowed in June.

In the US, the consumer price index rose 2.0% in July, matching with market estimates. The housing market recovery is back on track, as the housing starts in the US climbed to 1.093 million units in July, marking its highest level since November 2013

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3292, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3274. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3344, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3378.

Traders would keenly await the release of the Fed’s minutes of its latest policy meeting, scheduled later in the day.

 

GBP/USD

The GBP fell .62% against the US Dollar and closed at 1.6620, after downbeat inflation data in the UK. On an annual basis, consumer price index in the UK dropped unexpectedly to 1.6% in July, dampening the prospects of a near term interest rate hike.

Meanwhile, gains in the USD were supported by a rise in the US consumer price index and better than expected readings on US building permits and housing starts, all for the month of July.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6574, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6534. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6690, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6766.

Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the Bank of england’s minutes of the latest policy meeting, scheduled to release in a few hours.

 

USD/JPY

The USD strengthened 0.28% against the JPY and closed at 102.92.

Earlier this morning, data from Japan indicated that adjusted merchandise trade deficit in the nation narrowed to ¥1,23.8 billion in July. Exports were up 3.9% (Y-o-Y) and the imports climbed 2.3% (Y-o-Y) in July.

The pair is expected to find support at 102.65, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 102.33. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 103.15, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 103.33.

Market participants would await manufacturing PMI data, scheduled for release tomorrow.

 

USD/CHF

the USD rose 0.29% against the CHF and closed at 0.9093, following upbeat economic releases from the US.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9068, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9041. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.911, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9125.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 21-08-2014

 

EUR USD The EUR declined 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.3258. The US Dollar gained ground after the US Fed, in the minutes of its latest policy meeting, highlighted the improvements in the nation’s economy.

 

In Europe, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, urged the Euro-zone leaders to come forward and coordinate more closely to repair the “construction flaws” to overcome the debt crisis in the Euro-zone.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3222, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3196. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3295, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3342. Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by service and manufacturing PMIs from Germany, France as well as the Euro-zone. Investors would also keenly await the Jackson Hole 3-day symposium, which is slated to commence later in the day.

 

GBP / USD The GBP fell 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.6596. The greenback strengthened as the minutes of the latest Fed meeting was hawkish. However, the Pound gained earlier after the BoE minutes from its last policy meeting indicated that two policymakers from the rate-setting committee surprisingly voted in favour of a rate hike in August, marking the first split in more than three years.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6541, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6506. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6646, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6716.

 

Trading trends in the Pound today would be determined mainly by retail sales data from the UK.

 

USD / JPY The USD strengthened 0.78% against the JPY and closed at 103.72. Data released early this morning indicated that the manufacturing sector continued to expand in Japan, following a rise to 52.4 in August, markets were expecting it to climb to a level of 51.7.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 103.19, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 102.51. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.65.

 

USD/CHF The USD rose 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 0.9135. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9108, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9073.

 

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9162, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9181. Going forward, market participants would focus on Swiss trade balance, scheduled in a few hours.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 22-08-2014

 

EUR / USD

The EUR rose 0.17% against the USD and closed at 1.3280, following upbeat macroeconomic data from Germany.

 

French manufacturing PMI fell to 15-month low of 46.5 in August, underlying concerns about the economic outlook of the Eurozone’s second largest economy.

 

In the US, the Kansas City Fed President Esther George, in an interview from the central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, mentioned that there is steady improvement in the US labour market. Also, the Philadelphia Fed President, Charles Plosser, warned that the Fed should not wait too long to raise benchmark rates and should start raising it sooner, while pursuing a gradual approach.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3252, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3224. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3299, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3318.

 

Trading trends in the pair today would be mainly determined by the speeches of heads of the Fed and the ECB, in Jackson Hole, scheduled later in the day.

 

GBP / USD

The GBP fell 0.10% against the USD and closed at 1.6579, after retail sales in the UK grew at the slowest annual rate since November last year.

The UK retail sales volumes rose 0.1% in July, compared to a revised advance of 0.2% in the previous month.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6561, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6544. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6599, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6620.

 

Going forward, a speech by the BoE’s Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, at the Fed Jackson Hole Symposium, would be closely watched.

 

USD / JPY

The USD strengthened 0.13% against the JPY and closed at 103.85.

 

Japan’s supermarket sales in July fell 2.1%, on an annual basis, down for the fourth straight month after posting a 2.8% drop in the previous month.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 103.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.42. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 103.98, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.16.

USD / CHF

The USD declined 0.22% against the CHF and closed at 0.9115.

 

the Swiss trade surplus widened to 3.98 billionswiss francs in July, compared to market expectations of a surplus of CHF1.85 billion.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 0.91, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9086. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9137, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9160.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 25-08-2014

 

Euro (1.3202) has taken a big hit after the Jackson Hole meet as it trades around 1.32. With no sign of strength emergent, it definitely looks destined for our target of 1.31. Resistance at 1.3330-50 and support in 1.3250-25.

 

Dollar-Yen (104.18) is trading at a 7-month high but looks a bit overstretched now with a short term correction looking probable from 104.50-90. Interestingly,

 

Euro-Yen (137.55) has been rejected from the upper end of the 3-week range of 135.75-138. A successful break above 138 would signal a rally towards 139.00-25, even 140.

 

Pound (1.6559) has nearly reached our short term target of 1.6525-1.6470. But any attempt to bounce will face selling pressure from 1.6650-6700.

 

Aussie (0.9313) remains unchanged and keeps the range of 0.92-0.95 intact. Play the range as long as it remains unbroken with the median line at 0.9350-80.

 

Gold (1278.771) has bounced slightly from support near 1270 on the weekly and 3-day charts and while that holds we may see some more sessions on the positive side ranging in the 1270-1295 region. A break below 1270 if seen, could take it down to 1260-1250 in the longer term.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 26-08-2014

 

EUR/USD

The EUR declined 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.3186.

 

Over the weekend at the Jackson Hole Summit, the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, revealed that the policymakers are willing to introduce additional stimulus, if there is further drop in inflation in the region.

 

In the US, the pace of growth in the services sector lost momentum as the services PMI fell for a second consecutive month in August to a level of 58.5, below the reading of 60.8 registered in July.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3184, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3165. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3217, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3231.

 

Going forward, the crucial durable goods orders and consumer confidence data from the US would be closely watched.

 

GBP/USD

The GBP rose 0.12% against the USD and closed at 1.6568.

 

in the Jackson Hole Summit, the BoE Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, stated that wage growth in Britain is not going to pick up anytime soon. He further mentioned that the bank would not hike its benchmark rates until there is a clear prospect of stronger wage growth in the nation.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6564, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6534. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6611, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6628.

 

Amid a light economic calendar from the UK today, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by news from various economies.

 

USD/JPY

The USD strengthened 0.16% against the JPY and closed at 104.05, following soft economic releases from the US.

 

theBoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that the Japanese economy would still need its ultra-easy stimulus measure for some more time in order to get rid of deflation.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 103.67, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.51. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.44.

 

 

 

USD/CHF

The USD declined 0.11% against the CHF and closed at 0.9161.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9133, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9121. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9165, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9185.

 

Amid lack of economic releases from Switzerland today, market sentiments would shift their focus to Wednesday’s Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 27-08-2014

 

EUR/USD

The EUR declined 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.3168. The USD gained ground, following upbeat economic data from the US.

 

In the US, the orders for the durable goods climbed a record 22.6%. Additionally, the consumer confidence in the US rose to its highest level since October 2007 to a reading of 92.4 in August, beating market expectations.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.314, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3115. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3203, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3241.

 

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by German consumer confidence data, scheduled in a few hours.

 

GBP / USD

The GBP fell 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6546.

 

In economic news, the mortgage approvals in the UK declined to two-month low in July, diminishing optimism over the health of the housing sector in the nation.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6527, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6502. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6587, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6622.

 

Amid lack of economic releases from the UK today, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by global events.

 

USD/JPY

The USD traded tad higher against the JPY and closed at 104.09.

 

In economic news, the Japanese small business confidence index fell to 47.7 in August, compared to market expectations of a rise to a level of 49.5.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 103.8, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.55. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.24, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.44.

 

USD/CHF

The USD rose 0.16% against the CHF and closed at 0.9176.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9146, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9117. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9195, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9215.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 28-08-2014

 

EUR USD

The EUR rose 0.19% against the USD and closed at 1.3193, despite the German Gfk consumer confidence unexpectedly easing in September for the first time in more than one and a half years.

 

Meanwhile, the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, in an interview, said that the comments made by the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, at the Jackson Hole, were “over-interpreted”, raising concerns that the central bank may not be as close to introducing additional stimulus measures as previously indicated.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3173, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3134. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3235, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3258.

 

Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by unemployment rate and inflation data from Germany. Additionally, investors would keep a close eye on GDP numbers from the US.

 

GBP USD

The GBP rose 0.18% against the USD and closed at 1.6575.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6554, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6516. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6618, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6644.

 

Going forward, investors would look at Britain’s Gfk consumer confidence, scheduled in the midnight.

 

USD JPY

The USD weakened 0.19% against the JPY and closed at 103.90.

 

Yesterday, Japan’s Vice Economy Minister, Yasutoshi Nishimura, cautioned that the Japanese government needs to be more careful regarding its upcoming decision about raising the national sales tax.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 103.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.46. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.25.

 

Going forward, investors would focus on Japan’s crucial consumer prices and jobless rate data, scheduled to release in the midnight.

 

USD/CHF

The USD declined 0.29% against the CHF and closed at 0.9149.

 

The Swiss UBS consumption indicator fell to 1.66 in July, compared to a reading of 2.07, registered in the previous month.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9117, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9097. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.917, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9203.

 

Investors would await Q2 employment levels in Switzerland, slated to release ahead in the day.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 1-09-2014

 

Euro keeps taking hits from various fronts like US data to the speculation that the QE from the ECB may come this week. The divergence between the US & Eurozone economies is getting more and more clearly reflected in the respective currencies.

 

Euro (1.3123) crashed exactly from our resistance at 1.3220 to reach our medium term target of 1.31. Now it is very close to the long term support zone of 1.3050-3000 though no sign of strength is visible. Let’s see if any short covering emerges from these levels.

 

Dollar-Yen (104.17) is close to hit a new 7-month high above 104.26 but still needs a break above 104.50 to gather bullish momentum for reaching higher levels. The grinding price action without any kind of directional move in Euro-Yen (136.69) actually shows the relative uniformity between Euro & Yen as both weakened simultaneously. The pair remains weak below 138 and the range of 136-138 may sustain for a few sessions more.

 

Pound (1.6596) is stuck within a very narrow range of 1.6540-1.6620 and even a break above 1.66 could not boost the pair. The downtrend remains firm and any bounce may face selling pressure from 1.6700-50 levels.

 

Aussie (0.9338) is testing the August high at 0.9375 levels but the lack of momentum doesn’t promise much more immediate upside. A failure to break above 0.9375 may drag it down towards 0.9280-50 levels once again.

 

Gold (1286.75) is trading lower after a short upward correction from 1271. We may see a rise towards 1300 before falling back to 1280 in the near term while the longer term remains bearish. Gold-WTI ratio (13.42) has fallen from resistance at 14 but may bounce back from 13.3-13.4 levels to target 14.5-15 levels.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 2-09-2014

 

EUR / USD

The EUR traded lower against the USD and closed at 1.3131, after the German GDP contracted in the second quarter of 2014.

 

In other economic news, the rate of expansion in Euro-zone manufacturing production eased to a 13-month low in August. The PMI in the Euro-zone dropped to 50.7 in August, compared with 51.8 in July. Moreover, with prospects of more sanctions by EU leaders on Russia for its recent incursion in Ukraine, the Euro is expected to remain under pressure.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3111, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3100. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.314, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3158.

 

Going forward, investors would pay attention to a slew of economic releases from the US later in the day.

 

GBP / USD

The GBP rose 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6612.

 

the UK market PMI edged down in August to 52.5, falling to its lowest level in 14-months, against market expectations for a reading of 55.1 and compared to a reading of 54.8 registered in the prior month. Additionally, data revealed that the UK borrowings rose a total of £3.4 billion in July, the highest in six years.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6561, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6537. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6627, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6669.

 

Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the PMI construction data from the UK, scheduled in a few hours.

 

USD / JPY

The USD strengthened 0.18% against the JPY and closed at 104.32. the vehicle sales in Japan eased 5.0% on an annual basis, in August, following a 0.6% rise registered in July. Early morning data indicated that the labour cash earnings in Japan had risen 2.6% in July, compared to a revised 1.0% rise in the previous month, while markets were expecting it to rise 0.9%

 

The pair is expected to find support at 104.3, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.85. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 105.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 105.26.

 

Going forward, investors await services PMI data from Japan, scheduled to release early tomorrow.

 

USD/CHF

The USD rose 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9195. The Swiss Franc lost ground, after Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in August.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9183, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9166. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9211, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9222.

 

Trading trends in the Swiss today are expected to be determined by the Q2 Swiss GDP, scheduled in a few hours.

[Commexfx 10]

Daily Outlook 3-09-2014

 

EUR USD

The EUR traded marginally higher against the USD and closed at 1.3134.

 

In economic news, the PPI in the Euro-zone eased 0.1% in July, compared to a rise of 0.1% in the previous month. Elsewhere, In Spain, the number of unemployed people registered a rise of 8.1K in August, following a 29.8K decline in the prior month but lower than market expectations.

 

In the US, the manufacturing activity expanded in August at the fastest rate since March 2011.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3117, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.31. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3145, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3156.

 

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by services PMI data from the Euro-zone and its various peripheries as well as Euro-zone’s retail sales data, set for release in a few hours.

 

GBP USD

The GBP fell 0.85% against the USD and closed at 1.6470.

 

In economic news, the UK construction PMI grew at its fastest pace in 7 months to a level of 64.0 in August, higher than market expectations.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6423, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6378. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6553, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6638.

 

Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by services PMI data from the UK, scheduled in a few hours.

 

USD/JPY

The USD strengthened 0.77% against the JPY and closed at 105.12.

data indicated that the Japanese services sector slipped into contraction, as the nation’s services PMI dropped to 49.9 in August, down from a level of 50.4, registered in the prior month.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 104.8, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 104.41. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 105.44, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 105.68.

 

USD/CHF

The USD traded lower against the CHF and closed at 0.9191.

 

The Switzerland’s economy stagnated on a quarterly basis in 2Q 2014, following an expansion of 0.5% in the previous quarter.

 

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9182, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9171. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9209, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9225.

 

Amid lack of economic releases from Switzerland today, investors would pay attention to economic news from other countries.