Off-topic Posts

[timokrates 10]

Ah ok, thanks for clarification.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I believe, DB said, no charts under 15 minute time frame in that particular thread. He's trying to encourage more people to swing trade, or at least intraday swing, as most people do not have the luxury of actively day trading the entire session.

 

Schaefer

 

That is correct. However, trading for longer timeframes than the NY open to the NY close is clearly of no interest. And I see no point in posting interday stuff here if no one is interested. The intraday stuff can be found at ET.

 

So, if no one steps up to the plate by the end of the month, I'll just wrap it up and forward people to ET.

[Gamera 15]

That is correct. However, trading for longer timeframes than the NY open to the NY close is clearly of no interest. And I see no point in posting interday stuff here if no one is interested. The intraday stuff can be found at ET.

 

So, if no one steps up to the plate by the end of the month, I'll just wrap it up and forward people to ET.

 

Very much interested in opportunities that go beyond NY open to NY close, I tend to lean towards intraday trading so I can sleep easy at night, but, I would like to take on interday movements as it is hard to ignore what is on offer when one looks at the bigger picture.

 

Gamera.

 

There's no special technique to it. One just has to hold the trade. This works best when trading off the upper or lower limit, so it's not for the action junkie. But if one can hold on for a hundred points or more, why not? Stops are of course necessary.

Edited March 24, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Gamera 15]

Was not sure where exactly this post belongs so I fired it in here, DB feel free to relocate if it is more relevant in another thread.

 

Whilst I am back on terra firma, I have had a lot to think about over the last 3 weeks and most of that is to do with how I tackle ranges. As I alluded to in another post my plan as it stands is heavy on the SLA and weak on the AMT, the observations I made starting 5 weeks ago pointed out a few weaknesses that need to be addressed.

 

I have had a number of ideas and by going through my own charts I believe I can answer most of the following questions.

 

Can I identify a range? Yes, whilst at times I can be a little slow on the uptake, I can identify ranging behaviour. (chart 1)

 

 

Do I know how to trade a range? Yes, wait at the extremes and ride the PA back to the opposite extreme.

 

Do I know what behaviour I will look for at the extremes? Yes, I have contemplated 4 possibilities for entry.

1: Enter because price hits extreme.

2: Enter because price starts to behave like it has found the extreme (e.g starts to ret at or near extreme)

3: Enter off a lower high (UL) or higher low (LL)

4: Enter when reversal is confirmed.

 

Whilst I could backtest all of the above, observations and experience have taught me some things so far.

1. Taking a trade just because price is at an extreme is iffy. In the time it takes price to reach an extreme the market may have decided that value belongs somewhere else, price might break out, or it might not but if it does I do not want to be on the wrong side of what could be a fast moving market, and if I am trading a range I may already be positioned to take advantage of a breakout so why would I want to limit myself, I can accept giving up a couple of points in order to be available for a range becoming a trend.

 

OTOH 3 and 4 might not happen until price has moved all the way back to the mean or even the opposing extreme. And from my perspective I don't want to take on trades where the potential risk is greater than the potential reward.

 

That leaves me with 2, enter when the behaviour shows signs of changing no confirmation necessary. Entry mechanism would be a trailing entry that could follow price up once price gets to within X points (backtest) of limit. Stops would be at most recent swing point or breach of range (backtest) and if breach does slightly surpass limits an entry could be made just off the extreme as to avoid being triggered on a BO retest (backtest) that might bleed through the limit a little.

 

Do I know how I will manage a trade? this may require a degree of finesse that I lack at the minute, should I be target or bust, should I look for tells e.g DT and DBs that might indicate traders are unwilling to take price further, do I observe how price reacts to the mean? can it get there, what does it do, does it move through it without effort or whipsaw.

 

That brings me onto trade 2 on the chart below

 

 

it was a late entry as I waited for an HL to form, same as trade 1, price broke above 50% ret'd, failed to push higher then broke down through the 50% and previous swing low triggering an exit. I've thought about this one a lot and I am still not sure about it..... backtest.

(chart 2)

 

This is pretty much all covered in the PDF so it should not take long to reaffirm my conclusions but I feel I have a process to go through before I go live again.

 

Gamera.

Followed dear DB hint for pasting charts onto post but it has not worked as I would have liked.

 

There are several people on ET who are seriously trying to learn this. My posts to their threads may be helpful.

 

I've been following along and their threads and your posts are incredibly helpful, I seem to have certain ideas that occupy my thoughts, the answer (as if by magic) always seems to pop up when I think about the question.

 

Thanks again.

Edited March 25, 2015 by Gamera

[flowzen 10]

Hi,

 

I have a quick observation/question. I realize that at its base supply and demand drive price. OK. Well in our 21st century economy, where in the US we waste 5 times the amount of food we consume(yet still have starvation), where we've had several price bubbles occur-how can you still maintain that this is the case? How is the demand for an APPLE iphone created? It was not there originally...there was just enough money float in order to CREATE demand through savvy marketing and salesmanship. Steve Jobs was great in that he BELIEVED in what he was doing-he first sold himself fully on his product, then he sold Apple and Apple marketing sold the public. It's not like there is a set demand for iphones out there...its just if you can plant the idea in enough people's heads that you can have a chain reaction. Novelty=demand?

 

The object of the demand need not be something essential.

Edited March 27, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[flowzen 10]

So all we're really waiting for is a loss of consumer confidence....but then again, if you view human beings as a natural extension of our environment-our feelings/wants are a reflection of reality in itself, so perhaps psychological demand has a mechanical presupposition within fundamental reality...ie you trust that human beings can rationally discover the "value" of something. Wait....

Edited March 27, 2015 by flowzen

[lajax 10]

Here is the Excel file of my backtesting process, I uploaded here because in ET is not possible.

Bitacora Ob 6 Bktst ENG.xlsx

[DbPhoenix 42]

Schabacker's Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits

Schabacker.pdf

[SRspider 10]

Tomorrow I will start my journal. The main objective is to practice reading the market and identifying opportunities to trade. Mainly day trading the NQ on a 3 minute chart, but will do analysis on the weekly, daily, hourly, 30 min, and 3.

[SRspider 10]

First red Arrow a short at the top of the channel.Didnt amount

to much so I scratched it.

 

The first Green Arrow a long on a retracement after the

range break. But it was close to the upper channel line

so I didn't expect much and just scalped.

 

The second red arrow a short after the price action showed

weakness a failure to go up and at the upper

trend channel line.

 

Fourth Red Arrow a short after price failed to move up

at that lower trend channel line. A break of the demand line

as well. this was a full stop out.

 

Fifth Red arrow a short after the demand line break and

a retracement back up.

 

I don't really like taking more than five trades a day and i am feeling

that I took these pretty quick, but those were the setups. Going to observe

now and see if something really solid sets up.

I see also that we broke down through a hinge on the daily

chart so I have more of a short bias.

 

Chart2: Took another short after the break of the support or bottom of range and a retrace back up to the support now resistance.

Edited May 6, 2015 by SRspider

[DbPhoenix 42]

I don't know what sort of comment you're looking for. You're welcome to borrow elements from the SLA to include in your trading plan, and they may help you to improve your results. But what you'll be doing won't be the SLA.

 

So whatever comments I make will depend on what it is you're trying to do. If you're trying to learn the SLA, some things will have to go. But if you're interested only in certain elements of it, that's another subject.

[SRspider 10]

Hi Db

I'm trying to stick to the SLA/AMT, so if your taking about the ma and the tick chart at the bottom I can remove those since I'm not really using them. Except maybe the TICK chart to better time an entry. Your comments are appreciated.

thanks

[DbPhoenix 42]

I suggest you get rid of the candles as well, or at least plot them as black. The colors have nothing to do with trading price and can create a bias, and you don't need the distraction.

 

Trading the SLA today required only one trade: an entry below the range and an exit at the break of the afternoon SL:

 

 

Also, don't forget to include the context. Knowing at least the previous day's high would prevent you from going long at the open.

[weasel1 10]

Db

Could you explain why knowing yesterdays high would prevent taking a long position of the range BO.

 

Well, "prevent" is a strong word. "Discourage" is more like it. Given that there was potential resistance (something that everybody could see) just above that range and nothing below it, I had no interest in going long. I didn't really think about it. I just wasn't interested. One could, of course, if he was prepared to exit or raise his stop when price stalled at R. I just didn't think it was likely.

 

What I would suggest to a beginner is to go ahead and take the long but keep a tight stop, for if it doesn't go right away it probably won't go at all. Then wait for price to pass back through that range and take the short. If that doesn't work either, then stop. As near as we were to the median, tho, I expected more, and we got it.

 

Of course, one must be able to recognize a range, something which so few at ET are able to do (when a self-proclaimed "experienced trader" says he can't recognize a range much less know how to trade a breakout from it, I have to wonder just how much experience this trader has).

Edited May 7, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[weasel1 10]

Db

Makes sense, I did not enter a long position my first resistance was at 4423.50 then 4428.00. So I had no intention of a long entry. I entered a short at 4402.50 which was a bit late I would of liked a fill at 4414.00 or 4412.00. Exit position @ 4372.25

[SRspider 10]

I know I probably did this all wrong but here is the logic

behind the trades today

 

First Green arrow was a long on a retrace after the break of

that small double top or small range.That stopped out so it leads

to the first red arrow which was a short on the failure which also stopped

out.

 

The second green arrow was a long based on the fact that

they were holding the 50% mark of the range. that

one worked out ok.

 

The Third green arrow was a long basded on a break out

of the range but it came back intot he range and stopped out.

 

I tried the long again on the fourth green arrow and was again

stopped out.

 

Not the best outcome today and I know probably didn't do things correctly.

 

Whether you did it "right" or "wrong" is way too early in this process. While I like the clean chart as it is so much easier to read, you should not be trading at all unless, as I said yesterday, you only want to borrow an element or two from the SLA.

 

But if you want to learn the SLA, you're going to have to spend some time observing without thinking about trades and where you'd enter and where you'd exit and where you should have entered and where you should have exited and so on and so on and so on. This is in a way of form of rewiring. The more messed up you are, the longer it will take, but with replay it won't take nearly as long as you might think.

 

My charts, which I posted to ET, follow:

 

While I don't want to nag, I do want to point out, again, the advantages of trading a longer bar interval. I realize no one who's posting is doing this, but I continue to encourage those who are not in a position to daytrade to explore this option.

 

 

A 1m chart of today's activity. 0800 is not especially early, even if one works at home.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[SRspider 10]

Ok thank you for your feedback. After giving this some thought what I would like to be able to do is analyze the market via the Wyckoff method using the supply and demand lines ranges spring and up thrust tests climactic selling and buying pushes through supply or demand or breakouts while incorporating volume. In this analysis be able to spot trading opportunities on a 5 or 3 min chart managing my risk effectively. How do you think I should approach this ?

 

What do you mean by "spring" and "up thrust test"?

Edited May 8, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[SRspider 10]

Hi Db,

Regarding springs and upthrusts , its just terminology I picked up taking other courses and reading stuff on Wyckoff, if it is or is not (Wyckoff) I am not really sure and maybe its something made up.

But regarding reading the market. This is kind of what I mean , I noted on the QM chart of today. Its hindsight to its easier to see but to see it real time is what I would like to accomplish. I am willing to start over and erase it all if you can point me in the right direction.

 

You may have read the Evans' version of Wyckoff's course. Wyckoff's original course was not released from copyright until a few years ago.

 

I suggest you look at the Wyckoff Lite stickie uptop. It has a link to the original course, if you want to read the whole thing. If you don't, suggestions are made to abbreviate it. What is most important is Section 7.

Edited May 8, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[SRspider 10]

Thanks DB,

I will give it a go this weekend and post any questions if you don't mind. As far as the charts go , I'll just be watching for now and try and view in the context of what I will be reading.

[SRspider 10]

Ive been covering a lot of the material since yesterday and making notes. I can see how the context is extremely important in figuring out what trades to look for and where.

In determining topping or bottoming action i see that there are several indications.

 

1. Climactic volume

2. The slope of the incline or decline of the price action

3. The closing of the bars that poke the lows or the highs

4. Once that climax is identified a techical rally follows if it was a selling climax.

5. The key is then the secondary reaction which should create a higher low.

 

Not necessarily. Price may dip below the previous low but pull back up due to buyer interest. If this bar "closes" at or near the high, this indicates buying interest and can be bought just like a higher low.

 

The VSA people like to call this a "spring", but there's no need to come up with a special name for it unless you're trying to sell a system to somebody. Beginners like lots of lingo.

 

6. If this in turns breaks a supply line there is a good chance the market will enter into an accumulation phase and should be bought.

7. Then there should be some good volume increase on the up move after that secondary reaction. This is also key because buyers are willing to pay the ask

 

As far as buying on a dip in an uptrend. Several key factors come in to play

1. Coming down to a support area not necessarily. Be careful with regard to "support" and "resistance". Price is reaching a level where buyers are interested. You can't always know this in advance. Judge the market by its own action.

2. Shortening of the thrust down

3. Closes near each other

4. Low volume on the way down, because sellers are having to lower the ask in order to fill orders

5. Mini selling climax is oka

6. closes then near top of bars and higher volume on the way up, again because buyers are willing to pay the ask

7. Narrow range bars or narrower

When I start seeing this type of action it would be safe to buy that dip for a continued up move. He describes it as "dullness"

 

Works the opposite for selling a rally in a down trend.

 

Ranges

can be accumulation or absorption or they can be distribution. Some of the clues obviously is the context that led to the range. But once in the range lets say we are starting to see bars with higher lows and higher highs within the range or pokes under the range that come back up through and the volume on higher closes is bigger than the volume on lower closes it may be showing signs of absorption .

the opposite for distribution.

 

Ignore all of that.

 

Buy a breakout through the upper limit of the range.

 

Short a breakout through the lower limit of the range.

 

Keep it simple.

 

There is a lot in that book to take in.

 

Am I getting this right?

 

Thanks for your help.

Edited May 9, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[SRspider 10]

Thanks DB for the input. When you buy a break out what might you consider to make it more probable that it is not a false breakout? I would imaging that the volume must be higher.

 

A question that is on everyone's lips.

 

The answer lies in collecting ranges and determining how many points price must rise above the range to signal genuine intent. This will vary, of course, depending on the instrument, so there's no point in testing a bunch of stuff you have no interest in trading. If you're interested in trading the NQ, collect NQ ranges. If you're interested in stocks, then I'm afraid you're going to have to collect data on each.

 

This is all part of the characterization process. If you don't go through it, you'll pay.

 

As to volume, I wouldn't bother. The gurus will tell you that volume must accompany a breakout, but this isn't true. Volume often waits a bar or two or several before kicking in largely because the breakout itself goes unnoticed. Only after the breakout does the volume come in. Or at least one hopes it does if one went long.

 

If you're interested in volume, I suggest you look at the volume thread, below.

Edited May 10, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[SRspider 10]

Ok thanks for that. It does make sense. I know it doesn't always happen but after a break out sometimes we get a reaction. I think for me I would rather wait for that to jump on , especially if I don't have the data on the ranges that you spoke about. I will though start looking more closely at the NQ since that is the instrument I trade mostly.

Thanks again.

 

This particular type of data gathering can be done with static charts. You can collect the data in just a few days.

Edited May 10, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[SRspider 10]

Some Observations today. I see we broke through the hinge that was forming and then retraced back which looked like an opportunity to possibly short. An we are near a SL on the Daily Chart.

[DbPhoenix 42]

from Ronald Siegel, heavily edited

 

In the Buddhist traditions from which many contemporary mindfulness practices derive, mindfulness techniques evolved as tools for deconstructing our usual view of ourselves and the world, for waking up from conventional, socially reinforced fictions about who we are and how to find happiness. This awakening occurs to the degree that we no longer believe in the self. It involves realizing what’s called in Pali — the language in which the Buddha’s teachings were first recorded — anatta, or non-self.

 

The mindfulness practice that leads to recognizing anatta is deceptively simple. It begins with cultivating concentration: choosing an object of awareness, such as [price movement], and returning attention to that object every time the mind wanders from it. Once some concentration is established, we open the field of awareness to attend to whatever predominates in consciousness. Throughout the process, we try to accept whatever arises, whether pleasant or unpleasant.

 

Ancient Buddhists described the process by which we construct reality and our sense of self much as modern cognitive scientists do. It all begins with sense contact: the coming together of a sense organ (the eye, for example) with an object of awareness. These sensations are then immediately organized into perceptions, conditioned by language, personal history, and culture.

 

The mind doesn’t stay at the level of perception for long, however. It immediately adds a hedonic or feeling tone to all experience (“I like this” or “I don’t like this”). And almost as soon as the feeling tone enters consciousness, intentions arise. Over time, we develop habits of intention that we might call dispositions or conditioned responses—collections of habitual responses to our likes and dislikes. These dispositions become important elements in our identities.

 

In Buddhist psychology, awakening to anatta, or non-self, is central to psychological freedom. And even glimpsing anatta in our mindfulness practice can have profound implications for how we [trade].

 

Some changes are simple. Instead of asking, “How [does] that make you feel?” we inquire, “What’s happening right now?” Instead of [focusing on the] self, we highlight how everything changes moment by moment.

 

Grasping anatta [means] that we no longer devote our energies so relentlessly to scheming and strategizing about how to feel as good as possible [about our trading] to opening to whatever may be happening in the moment. This shift can be a tremendous relief. It’s as if the mind—worn and weary from endlessly wishing things would be other than they are—gets to rest in accepting what is. And when I notice how much of what I stress about all day involves trying to bolster my self-esteem or hold onto pleasure and avoid discomfort, the struggle gives way to an inner chuckle about my insanity.

 

This awareness of the price we pay for self-preoccupation comes most readily when we can see the thought-stream for what it is and not identify so much with the contents of our minds. Combined with seeing that our emotions are just a mix of bodily sensations, words, and images, this realization can lead to surprising fearlessness, even in the face of major [trading] challenges.

 

When we relate to each moment [during the session] as the impersonal unfolding of [price prints], rather than “my joy” or “my sorrow,” we can face more adversity with less resistance. There really is nothing to fear [if one is thoroughly prepared and focuses on those prints rather than on what one thinks about them, or "feels" about them].

 

As we come to see the reality of anatta and experience the relief and freedom that this realization brings, our orientation toward [trading] shifts. Egocentrism falls by the wayside as we [focus on price's movements rather than our "selves"].

Edited July 20, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Guest arturzvaygzne]

I have original course of Wyckoff.

 

So do we. For free.

Edited July 9, 2015 by DbPhoenix