The "Flip" Trade (support and resistance changing roles)

[walterw 10]

Hey walter thats great to hear, looks like you may be demoing efx now but not sure, if u are their free charting lags quite a bit compared to auctual price. They are suppose to release their new charting package sometime this year. Commission is my only gripe with them they are high you pay when u enter a trade and when u exit, but i believe if u trade over a certain amount they will cut u a break on commision. I had a lot of problems with there demo,but have not had any with their live platform. Just wanted to let u know,hope u make many pips!!!

 

 

Yes, I have an acct at oanda... but will probably try efx as I like the ecn concept where there is no deal desk pricing... anyway I calculated their comisions and its equivalent to 1 pip would that be correct...?

 

I think that with flips as the ones you are showing me... there is great amount of pips to be made ¡¡¡ cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Here is a list.

 

 

 

Commissions are based on total dollar amount traded.doc

[walterw 10]

Thanks for that info Don...

 

That +1 pip are you referring to the spread between bid/ask ?... I understand you can also get inside that spread in pipetes (ej 1.32334) On high liquidity hours does the spread get less than 1 pip in pipetes ? thanks Walter.

 

PD: did you see the chart with the lsma exits ?

[Don4 10]

walter the +1 pip is between the bid and ask,but it does fluctuate some depending on the liquidity.on average the major pairs run from 1 to 2 pips

but you can catch them at even quite a bit. You can trade between the spread. Yea,the lsma can be quite accurate at picking the tops I will start looking at that a little harder.

[walterw 10]

Hello fellow traders, today friday june 8 has been a very dull market almost all day, until momentum showed up for a nice clear flip... happen to be also a super coil break... flips on days like this are not that frecuent, I thought I would not have any... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Today wasnt a good day, think i was like 1 for 6. But it was my fault,the flips were there. I was just trying to scan to many pairs at 1 time and being a little to aggresive. The one that i did hit i closed half my position at 10 pips and had stoploss at 6 so i was already in a + trade. And i told my self that i wouldnt touch it i would just let it run and see what happened but ended up closing it out for 8pips.(still learning this setup)

 

 

[walterw 10]

Hi Don, I think the trade was ok... the key would be to find a way to stay inside all the way down...

 

Should we start considering the fact that if we are outside keltner we asume we are having momentum.... so... from there on momentum may build or not.. if 50 % of the position was closed at the scalper exit... you already have a "free trade" (thanks Irushing for concept)... so now staying inside will be the key if momentum builds up...

 

So far in terms of exits, as scalper I am I had suggested the use of very small targets... now looking at forex and how forex develops momentum in such a way should we consider a diferent alternative to stay inside longer..

 

Here is mi first idea: Super Runner = coming back into keltner... wich could be a 1/3 last 3rd exit.

 

So here would be the proposed complete exit idea : 1rts Scalper exit 1/3... 2nd runner exit another 1/3... 3rd super runner last 1/3....

 

technical criterias : 1rst scalper exit with cci 1rts hook from 100 level

 

2nd runner exit with cross of oposit 50 level and 3rd super runner exit at re-entry of white keltners...

 

Other combination could be just 50/50 scalper and super runner...

 

Tell me what you think... this are just ideas... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

walter,these are some great ideas, i think next week ill play around with the 50/50 idea and see how it works out. One thing though you think it would be best to close the first position on the scalper or close on the cover of the stoploss + commission to get that free trade? Just wondering.

[walterw 10]

walter,these are some great ideas, i think next week ill play around with the 50/50 idea and see how it works out. One thing though you think it would be best to close the first position on the scalper or close on the cover of the stoploss + commission to get that free trade? Just wondering.

 

good question there Don, that would require some meditation from my part and some cat walk on the park... taking a fixed target sometimes it sounds to me a little "pretensious"... thats why I like not to establish any particular target but really gow with the flow and being trigered by a technicall factor...

 

In terms of math yes, would be ideal, in real world... I dont know...I like the technical triggers... any way some meditation will make the diference...

 

Think momentum here is the final key to success in terms of RRR... being able to cash in does big moves will make a tremendous diference... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

One more thing, this flip that happened today presented two different types of trades back to back just wanted to get your thought on what you would consider more valid. The first one would be more aggressive but less risk because of stops could be placed fairly tight below support. The second would be less aggressive but greater risk because price would be so far away and stops would have to be above support.Your thoughts!

 

 

[walterw 10]

Yes... I personally manage the stop placement X amount of ticks below the Entry pivot... so in this case it doesnt matter if it was right on the S&R level (first example) or a little further (second example)... I would not take the S&R level (himself) for my stop criteria.. but the pivot previous to the entry minus x amount of ticks/pips....

 

I believe that if that pivot from the entry gets swinged in oposite direction something with the trade its just screwed...

 

Using a cci recrossing 0 for stops will normally be on that level right below your entry pivot...

 

So in this very intersting example you see a flip that is taking off not exactly on the S&R level... I would still take it because your stop would still be competitive right below the pivot... hope this answers... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Here is another clear example to consider this super runner exit... made 30 pips against a 6 pip stop uhuuu... 1:5 RRR... sweet.

[Don4 10]

Ok, makes since. Thanks walter!

[walterw 10]

Ok, makes since. Thanks walter!

 

Have a nice weekend Don... I think we got something here... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Here would be another good example of the flip with the 50/50 super runner rule, that happened friday. I know its easy to go back in time find these setups. (just showing the potential)

 

 

 

[walterw 10]

impresive 40+ pip move there... I asume Don there is a time on the day this moves are more normal for certain pairs... I asume normally this would be on europe news hours or usa news hours... in this example was there any news included there ? cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Hey walter,The vertical lines is when the news was released in order (on chart)

 

 

Actual Forecast Previous

1:00am JPY Eco Watchers Survey 46.8 50.1 49.7 Low impact

2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 15.0B 15.0B 18.5B Low impact

2:45am EUR French Trade Balance -2.8B -2.0B -1.6B Low impact

4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% High impact

4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% Medium impact

6:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m -2.3% 0.4% 0.2% Low impact

6:00am EUR Composite Leading Indicators m/m 110.0 110.0 Low impact

 

 

[Don4 10]

But this was a flip on thursday, this move started about 1 hour before the close of the london session. Notice there was no euro news of any kind.

 

 

 

8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 309K 315K 310K Medium impact

10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% Low impact

3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 2.6B 6.0B 14.0B Low impact

 

 

[maildigger 10]

I still have question about the fliptrades:

 

Will the fliptrade only be valid on the most recent outerband support/resistance level? Or also on 'older' levels, formed earlier during the day?

[Don4 10]

I still have question about the fliptrades:

 

Will the fliptrade only be valid on the most recent outerband support/resistance level? Or also on 'older' levels, formed earlier during the day?

 

maidigger,are you talking about somithing like this, as for me i wouldnt take the trade as momentum would be gone ,but maybe walter will shed some light on the subject.

 

 

[walterw 10]

Nice interaction here... I am so glad I ended my monologue...

 

Don : thanks for the inputs on the news issue, we could state that the movements are not necesarily related to the news... thought the news can boost momentum, any way there can be momentum without them...

 

 

Maildigger : yes, it is posibble to take a flip on a older level... now on the case attached you can see it is agressive because you are on the oposite outerband...

 

Notice the "far flip" thought it was not on the exact level, it was more conservative as we where on the outerbands area, momentum showed up and it worked for almost 20 pips...

 

The overall idea of the "momentum flip" its to time a trade that will travel outside the outerbands with momentum... this thread recalls the concept http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/34/momentum-vs-non-momentum-1763-3.html

 

Thanks for interacting... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Here is an example on YM with Ztrade paramenters on chart...

 

Notice what a super trade this could had been if used the super runner exit...

 

In the week, picking a couple of this trades could optimize the overall RRR... cheers Walter.

 

PD : Super Runner exit is defined by the re-entry of the white keltner...

[Don4 10]

Well walter, i was watching this trade when i was at work, got home a little over an hour later and look what happened.

 

 

[walterw 10]

I love to see those bars outside keltner ¡¡ I asume you will track the super runner exit for that... so this week starts with the right foot... jejeje this will be a super flip week ¡¡ keep that good work Don, I see your eyes are more sharp to find flips... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Hello everyone, today I had been following YM U7... I am using Z trade parameters for keltners wich are 100 exp atr 1 and 2.5 on a 55Tick chart... (thanks Z trade)

 

There where lots of flips... but I only did take the more well formed ones... I mean by that, the ones that tested the S&R level without going any further (violation of level)...

 

Momentum was there, and on the last example we see how using a super runner would give exellent rewards... I still dont know how to manage that... but figuring out some money management idea... cheers Walter.