US Long Term Market Timer Portfolio

[Duarte 10]

This portfolio follows the line of the previous portfolio “Long term market timer high risk portfolio” that I had in the forum from 9 Jan 2013 to 31 Jan 2014, which rose 71,06% while the S&P 500 rose 22,33% during the same period.

I will probably trade more than in the previous portfolio, on the basis of the same methodology.

My goal is to try to answer as best as possible to what the market is doing in the long term and act accordingly (I am talking about a trend following discipline) with stocks and 3x Leveraged ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds/Indexes), and obviously make money with it.

A viable alternative with less risk is to use ETFs or 2x Leveraged ETFs, as I also did in the previous thread.

 

A few notes about portfolio: The first and most important note is that all the orders (open/close/stop loss orders) are communicated in the forum before being executed – not after.

The second note and the second most important note is that all the orders are executed at the closing price (last available price), except in the case of stop loss orders.

These two notes makes possible to replicate orders and check later. A similar method is used for subscription-based services monitor by Timer Digest.

The third note is that I will put the starting date of 12 February and in principle I'm going to have the portfolio until 31 December. This is the plan, but it might change.

The fourth note is that I have this portfolio in other countries forums at the same time.

The fifth and final note is that you can also suggest stocks which you may consider a good opportunity or stocks that are rising a lot and in a consistent manner.

 

To contact me via email john.jprd@gmail.com

[Duarte 10]

In a few days, I'll make some analysis and I will write what I think about the direction that market will follow, and then I will start trading.

[Duarte 10]

As I have wrote on several occasions in the last years, my guess about what is happening is that the S&P 500 since 2000 is following a similar path to the one taken between 1968 and 1984.

In the following monthly chart we were able to see that S&P 500 broke the resistance line last year and is now above the resistance line. Now, what is going to happen next?

When I look back at the path between 1968 and 1984 I think that is missing the S&P 500 fall to test the resistance line (set for the time being at the 1585), as in the past.

This is not obligatory, but I think that the picture becomes more complete with the resistance line test.

[tradingwizzard 10]

As I have wrote on several occasions in the last years, my guess about what is happening is that the S&P 500 since 2000 is following a similar path to the one taken between 1968 and 1984.

In the following monthly chart we were able to see that S&P 500 broke the resistance line last year and is now above the resistance line. Now, what is going to happen next?

When I look back at the path between 1968 and 1984 I think that is missing the S&P 500 fall to test the resistance line (set for the time being at the 1585), as in the past.

This is not obligatory, but I think that the picture becomes more complete with the resistance line test.

 

hi there,

 

the chart you show there is quite bullish in terms of Elliott waves structure as it seems the prior swing is an irregular flat and the move higher now is already being part of an impulsive move....like you said, testing the trend line is not mandatory, but if it does it only comes to confirm the pattern

 

TW

[Duarte 10]

hi there,

 

the chart you show there is quite bullish in terms of Elliott waves structure as it seems the prior swing is an irregular flat and the move higher now is already being part of an impulsive move....like you said, testing the trend line is not mandatory, but if it does it only comes to confirm the pattern

 

TW

 

 

Yes, that is what I think.

But for the moment, I also think that the trend line test will happen.

[Duarte 10]

We tend to focus more on the short and intermediate term (daily chart and weekly chart), but there are a lot of important things that happen in the long term time frame (monthly chart).

I made a zoom in the previous chart to select the period between 2000 and 2014.

In this way is more visible the drop to test the red resistance line that I hope will happen in the next months.

But I remain optimistic that we are in a secular bull market (a secular market refers to a market trend that persists over decades. The confirmation of the secular bull market happened last year when the S&P 500 Index broke out the monthly resistance line) and eventually we will see the S&P 500 with a much higher value than now in the following years.

That said, my expectation is that my first positions in portfolio are going to be short positions with inverse leveraged ETFs.

But for the moment I am on the outside and I am awaiting the sell signal of consensus of my short term technical indicators.

 

[tradingwizzard 10]

We tend to focus more on the short and intermediate term (daily chart and weekly chart), but there are a lot of important things that happen in the long term time frame (monthly chart).

I made a zoom in the previous chart to select the period between 2000 and 2014.

In this way is more visible the drop to test the red resistance line that I hope will happen in the next months.

But I remain optimistic that we are in a secular bull market (a secular market refers to a market trend that persists over decades. The confirmation of the secular bull market happened last year when the S&P 500 Index broke out the monthly resistance line) and eventually we will see the S&P 500 with a much higher value than now in the following years.

That said, my expectation is that my first positions in portfolio are going to be short positions with inverse leveraged ETFs.

But for the moment I am on the outside and I am awaiting the sell signal of consensus of my short term technical indicators.

 

 

hmm...is daily and weekly time frame short and intermediate term?

 

TW

[Duarte 10]

hmm...is daily and weekly time frame short and intermediate term?

 

TW

 

Hello TW, this text may help you to understand what I wrote.

 

When I see the charts I start from the bigger time frame: monthly (other times I start with annual) and then work my way backwards—weekly and daily, in order to reach a decision by consensus.

 

The probability of a good profit is higher when my perception in the different periods coincides, and also coincides with the consensus of daily technical indicators that I use.

 

At the moment, I have not yet reached a consensus to make a decision.

 

My perception is that the market is reaching a turning point, which will be followed by a downward phase which can last for months, but there's no confirmation yet from the consensus of daily technical indicators that I use.

[Duarte 10]

Some notes of the model portfolio:

 

The initial value is 35 000 USD.

The brokerage cost of an order is 5 USD.

 

 

Some notes on the investments to be made in the portfolios:

 

The intermediate-term investments are thought to have a time horizon of two weeks to three months and the long-term investments are thought to have a time horizon of three months to a year.

 

Generally, the long-term investments will have a time horizon longer than the intermediate-term investments, but sometimes the investments will coincide in the two portfolios with different quantities.

I will risk more in the US Intermediate term market timer portfolio than in the US Long-term market timer portfolio.

For example, the US Intermediate term market timer portfolio will have more exposure to short positions than the US Long-term market timer portfolio.

[Duarte 10]

Just to remind:

All the orders (open/close/stop loss orders) are communicated in the forum before being executed – not after.

All the orders are executed at the closing price (last available price), except in the case of stop loss orders.

 

 

One Buy and one annotated chart:

 

 

Edited April 8, 2014 by Duarte

[Duarte 10]

The following is the portfolio:

 

[Duarte 10]

The following is the portfolio and the portfolio weekly chart:

 

 

[Ammeo 10]

Morgan Stanley's profits jump but Goldman Sachs's fall

 

BBC News - Morgan Stanley's profits jump but Goldman Sachs's fall

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

The following is the portfolio and the portfolio weekly chart:

 

 

 

Hi Duarte,

 

This looks interesting . . . Have you looked at adaptive asset allocation models at all (I can drop you a few interesting links if you wish)?

 

Kind regards,

 

BlueHorseshoe

[Duarte 10]

Hi Duarte,

 

This looks interesting . . . Have you looked at adaptive asset allocation models at all (I can drop you a few interesting links if you wish)?

 

Kind regards,

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

 

I am not interested in adaptive asset allocation models, but in market timing in stock market indices in the United States.

 

This portfolio is a continuation of Long-term market timer high risk portfolio that I have in the forum.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/stock-trading-laboratory/15162-why-s-p-500-will-much-6.html#post190376

[Duarte 10]

I will close the open position at the end of the daily session and I will set this portfolio on standby for an indeterminate period because the consensus of the daily technical indicators that I utilize changed to buy signal.