US Intermediate Term Market Timer Portfolio

[Duarte 10]

This portfolio follows the line of the previous portfolio “US Stock Market Portfolio” that I had in the forum from 12 March 2013 to 31 January 2014, which rose 15,52% while the S&P 500 rose 14,55% during the same period.

A brief note about the previous portfolio: I didn’t trade and I had no open positions from 25 October 2013 to 31 January 2014.

 

My goal is to try to answer as best as possible to what the market is doing in the Intermediate term and act accordingly (I am talking about a trend following discipline) with stocks and 3x Leveraged ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds/Indexes), and obviously make money with it.

A viable alternative with less risk is to use ETFs or 2x Leveraged ETFs.

 

A few notes about the portfolio: The first and most important note is that all the orders (open/close/stop loss orders) are communicated in the forum before being executed – not after.

The second note and the second most important note is that all the orders are executed at the closing price (last available price), except in the case of stop loss orders.

These two notes makes possible to replicate orders and check later. A similar method is used for subscription-based services monitor by Timer Digest.

The third note is that I will put the starting date of 12 February and in principle I'm going to have the portfolio until 31 December. This is the plan, but it might change.

The fourth note is that I have this portfolio in other countries forums at the same time.

The fifth and final note is that you can also suggest stocks which you may consider a good opportunity or stocks that are rising a lot and in a consistent manner.

 

To contact me via email john.jprd@gmail.com

[Duarte 10]

In a few days, I'll make some analysis and I will write what I think about the direction that market will follow, and then I will start trading.

[Duarte 10]

Some notes of the model portfolio:

 

The initial value is 55 000 USD.

The brokerage cost of an order is 5 USD.

 

 

Some notes on the investments to be made in the portfolios:

 

The intermediate-term investments are thought to have a time horizon of two weeks to three months and the long-term investments are thought to have a time horizon of three months to a year.

 

Generally, the long-term investments will have a time horizon longer than the intermediate-term investments, but sometimes the investments will coincide in the two portfolios with different quantities.

I will risk more in the US Intermediate term market timer portfolio than in the US Long-term market timer portfolio.

For example, the US Intermediate-term market timer portfolio will have more exposure to short positions than the US Long-term market timer portfolio.

[Duarte 10]

When I see the charts I start from the bigger time frame: monthly (other times I start with annual) and then work my way backwards—weekly and daily, in order to reach a decision by consensus.

 

The probability of a good profit is higher when my perception in the different periods coincides, and also coincides with the consensus of daily technical indicators that I use.

 

At the moment, I have not yet reached a consensus to make a decision.

 

My perception is that the market is reaching a turning point, which will be followed by a downward phase which can last for months, but there's no confirmation yet from the consensus of daily technical indicators that I use.

[Duarte 10]

I am a non-U.S. citizen and I live outside of the U.S.

I trade stocks through TradeKing (http://www.tradeking.com ) and IB (http://www.interactivebrokers.com ).

The commission for US securities in TradeKing is $4.95 per trade. At this time, TradeKing does not accept clients that do not reside in the US.

 

The commission for US securities in IB is $0.005 per share. This pricing makes all trades of up to 1,000 shares cheap ($5 or less).

IB charges an inactivity fee. – The $30 per month minimum commission has to be achieved to avoid $10 monthly fee (rises to $20 monthly if account balance is less than $2,000).

The minimum amount to open an account is $10,000.

IB accepts clients that do not reside in the US.

 

There are other very good brokers that also accept clients that do not reside in the US such as Place Trade (Options trading, lowest margin rates, trade, stock, options, IRA, 401k - Place Trade Online) and tradeMonster (http://www.trademonster.com ).

 

The commission for US securities in Place Trade is $0.01 per share, with a minimum of $1.50 and a maximum of 1% per trade value.

The minimum amount to open an account is $5,000. (Place Trade not offers FOREX trading.)

Place Trade uses the same trading platform that IB uses and charges the same fees that IB charges.

The customer support service in Place Trade seems to be more friendly than that in the IB. email: clientservices@placetrade.com

 

The commission for US securities in tradeMonster is $4.95 per trade. The minimum amount to open an account is $2,000.

tradeMonster doesn't charge inactivity fee. email: info@trademonster.com

 

All brokers are members of FINRA (FINRA - Home Page ) and SIPC (SIPC - Securities Investor Protection Corporation ).

According to Barron´s online broker review on March 15, 2014, the three best online brokers of 2014 are IB, tradeMonster and Place Trade.

 

My conclusion is that the IB is the best choice for clients who want to trade more than 2 trades per month or more than 24 trades per year and the tradeMonster is the best choice for clients who want to trade less than 3 trades per month or less than 25 trades per year.

[Duarte 10]

After a 7-week waiting period I will start to invest.

I have been waiting for a sell signal of the consensus of technical indicators that I use in the main price indices, and now I have the sell signal.

The consensus has not yet complete because to do so required a change in the signal of one technical indicator that I use, which is still on buy signal, but I think that is reason enough to start positions on the portfolio.

 

Just to remind:

All the orders (open/close/stop loss orders) are communicated in the forum before being executed – not after.

All the orders are executed at the closing price (last available price), except in the case of stop loss orders.

 

 

1 Buy and the annotated chart:

 

(The chart don’t show this day)

 

 

[Duarte 10]

The following is the portfolio:

 

[Duarte 10]

The following is the SRTY weekly chart:

 

[Duarte 10]

The following is the portfolio and the portfolio weekly chart:

 

 

[Duarte 10]

I will close the open position at the end of the daily session and I will buy 400 units of UWM because the consensus of the daily technical indicators that I utilize changed to buy signal.

[Duarte 10]

The following is the last closed trade:

 

 

What strikes me as most important on charts of the main US stock indexes is what is happening in Nasdaq 100 index.

The Nasdaq 100 formed a descending broadening wedge which suggests a rise up to a value of 3711.

 

 

If the Nasdaq 100 index rise, the other indexes will very probably also rise.

 

I prefer to buy a Russell ETF because the Russell has more exaggerated movements than the other indexes, and I try to benefit from this.

 

I made a mistake when I bought UWM (UWM targets two times the daily return of the Russell 2000 Index). I wanted to buy URTY (URTY targets three times the daily return of the Russell 2000 Index). But they point in the same direction.

 

Now, I will buy URTY at the closing price (last available price).