My "Blackjack Strategy"

[Guest TRex]

I am no expert, but by definition, if you are not a discretionary trader, then you should take all setups that come along.

 

By trading a mechanical system you are in essence forfeiting the factor of discretion in your trading...

 

However, if I were kicking some major butt at the beginning of the week and had already exceeded my target.....Even though I know I am not technically supposed too....If I for some reason just wanted to relax, I maybe would take the week off...because technically in your business plan you have exceeded your target so you are meeting your expectations....but logically, and by definition, I would also know that I SHOULD take every setup that presents itself, as that by it's very nature is how a system is supposed to work.

 

The Kenny Rogers song applies only to discretionary traders, IMO...for a system trader-knowing when to hold, fold, cover, go long, or whatever has no bearing......it is all about what the system says to do....

Which came first, the system or the plan? My trading plan takes precedent over my methods, but those methods are incorporated into the plan. A thorough plan should never leave a trader wondering if he is done for the day or should trade more. Also, it's one thing to have a well-defined plan and quite another to have the discipline to implement and follow that plan.

[Reaver 10]

Which came first, the system or the plan? My trading plan takes precedent over my methods, but those methods are incorporated into the plan. A thorough plan should never leave a trader wondering if he is done for the day or should trade more. Also, it's one thing to have a well-defined plan and quite another to have the discipline to implement and follow that plan.

 

I was referring to the definition of a system, which is set up to override things like discretion. Choosing to do something is also referred to as discretion.

 

Therefore if you are not a discretionary trader, then you follow your system no matter what, or else you are not trading a system. At this point you are what they call being discretionary.

 

In trading, you can pretty much do whatever you want to do, which is why most fail. Therefore you can take a week off if you CHOOSE to. And if you are making enough money, you probably wouldn't notice the difference...but are you supposed to? No. You are not supposed to as it defies the logic of your non-discretionary system which is based on statistics to do so.

 

If I make $100,000 a year trading, a bank will loan me the money to purchase a $70,000 car. Is this the most intelligent thing possible? No. of course not. Can I do it without really suffering major repercussions? Yes, more than likely.

 

Like Brownsfan said- it is about consistency, and yes you are supposed to take every setup your system provides if you are a system trader. Otherwise you are toying with the statistical edge your system is supposed to provide in the first place.

[brownsfan019 17]

Like Brownsfan said- it is about consistency, and yes you are supposed to take every setup your system provides if you are a system trader. Otherwise you are toying with the statistical edge your system is supposed to provide in the first place.

 

That's all it's about Nate. Trex's comments are a bit cryptic...

 

In the end, the numbers do not lie and if your system has the edge, you trade it regardless of current feelings, P&L, etc. in my opinion. That's all this thread was about that Trex dug up that was 3 months old.

[Reaver 10]

That's all it's about Nate. Trex's comments are a bit cryptic...

 

In the end, the numbers do not lie and if your system has the edge, you trade it regardless of current feelings, P&L, etc. in my opinion. That's all this thread was about that Trex dug up that was 3 months old.

 

Yeah I wasn't sure exactly what to say in direct response- but I tried to focus on the basic question. lol

[Guest cooter]

Yeah I wasn't sure exactly what to say in direct response- but I tried to focus on the basic question. lol

 

[Reaver 10]

Cooter, my youtube thing is not working right now- but I am going to go ahead and guess that this is a clip of Miss South Carolina getting asked the map question....

 

Am I right?

[brownsfan019 17]

Nate,

I had no idea what you were talking about and then found this little gem...

 

 

 

Wow....

 

:doh:

[Guest cooter]

LOL! Truly a classic, Brownie :rofl:

[Reaver 10]

lol yeah I saw that this morning, and was seriously just in shock....wow.

[brownsfan019 17]

I don't even know what to say. Honestly. I've come up with some BS lines before, but this just doesn't sound right... or make any sense... :crap:

[Reaver 10]

Yeah it's sad too....as funny as it is...wow, it is a symbol of the state of affairs in the US these days.

 

This type of thing is the same reason people got nailed in this subprime mess....just unbelievable..you'd think it was done on purpose.

[Guest cooter]

Yeah it's sad too....as funny as it is...wow, it is a symbol of the state of affairs in the US these days.

 

For "U.S. Americans", that is.... Home-schooling at its finest, no doubt.

[Reaver 10]

For "U.S. Americans", that is.... Home-schooling at its finest, no doubt.

 

ha ha that was the funniest part to me...when it all started downhill..

 

The WTF thought that popped into my head the second I heard that was perfect.

 

U.S. Americans. LOL

[AgeKay 10]

brownsfan, back to blackjack, my favorite casino game.

 

From your description, it didn't seem you were playing basic strategy?

 

Here is what I find interesting about Blackjack. If you play perfect basic strategy, the casino's edge is only 0.3%. Which means that after having played 100 hands you will have lost 3x you're bet. Yet most players I see lose their whole stake in less than 50 hands while I usually double mine in that same time (I have never left a casino having lost money at blackjack).

 

How can that be when we are all sitting at the same table? First of all, most player don't even know basic strategy so they don't make the right decisions on some hands. Big mistake is that they don't double when they should. But this is not the main reason they lose. They lose because of poor money management. For example, the minimum bet is £5 and they arrive with £30 at the table. You are guaranteed to lose with that amount of money because of the huge variance (winning and losing streaks) that you can expect when playing.

 

Yet I win? And I don't count cards (I am usually drinking instead and talking to my fellow players). Why do I win? Luck - pure luck, but I take advantage of luck. How? I just play basic strategy to minimize the casino's edge and quit when I have doubled my money. I double my money not because of any skill, just because of the variance. While playing, I might lose half my stake due to variance but I know I will break even if I keep playing since this is a 50/50 game in the long run. Then I will make money due to variance (luck) again. I then just quit. It makes perfect sense. You can do this in any 50/50 game. Just don't bet more than 5% or 10% on each hand to avoid risk of ruin.

 

And I recommend not varying your bet size. I always regret it.

 

Now to trading: What are you opinions applying this to trading? Assuming you have no edge (or just enough to cover commissions), shouldn't you be able to make money using this strategy?