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Trading Thoughts of the Day
By
Guest OILFXPRO, in General Discussion
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By Stocks4life · Posted
QBTS D-Wave Quantum stock with a local breakout, good volume +235% at https://stockconsultant.com/?QBTS -
By Stocks4life · Posted
PLAY Dave & Busters Entertainment stock, big bounce off the lower 24.48 double support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?PLAY -
By Stocks4life · Posted
INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock, watch for a bottom breakout above 2.33 at https://stockconsultant.com/?INO -
By Stocks4life · Posted
CADL Candel Therapeutics stock, watch for a range breakout, target 12 area, volume +82% at https://stockconsultant.com/?CADL -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 19th February 2025. Is the DAX Overbought After Rising For 7 Weeks Straight? The DAX rose by 20% in 2024, however, in 2025 so far the DAX has risen more than 15% in only 50 days. The DAX has risen for seven straight weeks, driven by rate cuts and strong earnings reports. Can the DAX maintain momentum or is the price overbought? DAX 40 - What’s Driving the Bullish Trend? Three factors are driving the price of the DAX higher. The first is the European Central Bank which has cut for 2 consecutive months and is likely to adjust a further 0.75% in 2025. The lower interest rates and expectations of further cuts are known to support the DAX due to higher consumer demand. The second factor driving prices higher are the positive earnings data. SAP SE is the most influential stock and has risen by 18% so far this year. SAP’s latest quarterly earnings report saw the company beat revenue expectations by 2.60% and earnings by 1.40%. The second most influential stock for the DAX is Siemens AG which has risen almost 20% in 2025 so far. All of the seven most influential stocks have risen in value this year so far and only 17% of the whole DAX have declined this year so far. However, traders should note that not all companies within the DAX have made public their quarterly earnings reports. The third factor is the expectation that the Ukraine-Russia conflict will end or reach a ceasefire in the first half of the year. Traders should note that an end to the conflict is more crucial for European indices in comparison to Asian or US indices. This is due to the nature of Europe and European geopolitics. Is the German DAX Overbought? When analyzing the price movement the index is trading in the overbought zone on most oscillators and on most timeframes. However, price action and previous impulse waves indicate the price will not be overbought unless the price increases above 23,250EUR. However, the intrinsic value of the DAX will also depend on US tariffs. If Germany is able to avoid harsh US tariffs, German stocks may continue to increase higher as sentiment improves. However, harsh tariffs are likely to apply downward pressure on the index and increase the likelihood of being overbought in the short-to-medium term. If the price indeed declines, traders may first target the support level at $22,437.58, which will likely fall in line with the 75-period Moving Average. The main bullish breakout point is at the 22,724.30 mark. Tariffs on Foreign Cars A key risk for the DAX as mentioned above is US tariffs, particularly on cars. The DAX index includes Mercedes-Benz, Porsche AG, BMW, and Volkswagen. Total new cars sales in the US from these 4 companies make up almost 10% of the overall sales. Donald Trump remained defiant despite warnings that his proposed trade war could disrupt the US economy, stating that his administration might impose tariffs of approximately 25% on foreign cars within weeks. He also announced that semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals would soon face higher tariffs, speaking at a news conference on Tuesday. Key Takeaway Points: The DAX has surged over 15% in 2025, driven by ECB rate cuts, strong earnings, and optimism over the Ukraine conflict. SAP SE and Siemens AG are the top-performing stocks and 83% of the DAX has witnessed gains. However, some earnings reports are still pending. Despite trading in overbought territory, the index may continue rising unless it faces harsh US tariffs. Potential US tariffs on foreign cars pose a key risk, impacting major DAX-listed car makers. This includes Mercedes-Benz, Porsche AG, BMW, and Volkswagen. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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