To Taper or Not To Taper?

[jpennybags 11]

way lower than expected NFP may put the taper on hold for now.....any thoughts?

 

TW

From reading the FOMC minutes, it seems that the FED would like to unwind QE3 in the worst way. I doubt one month that surprises to the downside would change that. I would also question whether moving back to 85B would make any difference in the payroll numbers.

[tradingwizzard 10]

From reading the FOMC minutes, it seems that the FED would like to unwind QE3 in the worst way. I doubt one month that surprises to the downside would change that. I would also question whether moving back to 85B would make any difference in the payroll numbers.

 

no no......the idea is not to move back to 85, but to postpone the next tapering step as the economy is not feeling good

 

TW

[jpennybags 11]

no no......the idea is not to move back to 85, but to postpone the next tapering step as the economy is not feeling good

 

TW

That's a little harder call. I still doubt that one month will change things. The NFP number was so freakishly low, I would expect the number to be revised. It doesn't hold with all the other positive data that has come in the past few months. They may delay another reduction to see if the numbers improve, but I doubt it.

[tradingwizzard 10]

That's a little harder call. I still doubt that one month will change things. The NFP number was so freakishly low, I would expect the number to be revised. It doesn't hold with all the other positive data that has come in the past few months. They may delay another reduction to see if the numbers improve, but I doubt it.

 

just wait to see a couple of more bad news to come until next FOMC meeting and the sentiment will shift in a blink of an eye.....just the other day Yellen said the economy is recovering "painfully" low.......and she's the chairwoman

 

TW

[SunTrader 10]

That's a little harder call. I still doubt that one month will change things. The NFP number was so freakishly low, I would expect the number to be revised. It doesn't hold with all the other positive data that has come in the past few months. They may delay another reduction to see if the numbers improve, but I doubt it.

Agree completely .

[jpennybags 11]

just wait to see a couple of more bad news to come until next FOMC meeting and the sentiment will shift in a blink of an eye.....just the other day Yellen said the economy is recovering "painfully" low.......and she's the chairwoman

 

TW

You may be right about that. My take from the FOMC minutes is that there is a growing consensus that the risks are beginning to outweigh the rewards. If you consider that the FED has not begun to actually unwind their holdings, just a reduction in the rate of purchases... another taper move is not a big deal (my opinion). The FED has stated that they will do the taper in measured moves... certainly leaving it at 75B is within that guidance.

 

Thankfully, my trading style dictates that I only concern myself with what will happen in the next 5 minutes.

[tradingwizzard 10]

You may be right about that. My take from the FOMC minutes is that there is a growing consensus that the risks are beginning to outweigh the rewards. If you consider that the FED has not begun to actually unwind their holdings, just a reduction in the rate of purchases... another taper move is not a big deal (my opinion). The FED has stated that they will do the taper in measured moves... certainly leaving it at 75B is within that guidance.

 

Thankfully, my trading style dictates that I only concern myself with what will happen in the next 5 minutes.

 

I agree but backing off one month after starting would be Yellen signalling she's in control now

 

TW

[SunTrader 10]

Ain't gonna happen.

 

More of the same is in order.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Ain't gonna happen.

 

More of the same is in order.

 

never say never

 

TW

[SunTrader 10]

True.

 

But new Fed chiefs don't, initially at least, radically depart from their predecessor's direction.

 

They make their over time.

 

This isn't that complicated.

[tradingwizzard 10]

True.

 

But new Fed chiefs don't, initially at least, radically depart from their predecessor's direction.

 

They make their over time.

 

This isn't that complicated.

 

Draghi in Europe did.

 

Carney at BOE changed everything when came.

 

Why not Yellen?

 

TW

[jpennybags 11]

I agree but backing off one month after starting would be Yellen signalling she's in control now

 

TW

 

Really... seems to me that she is in control now... no need to beat the breast (so to speak). Honestly... I think she's smarter than that. The FED is going to unwind. I'm sure they will take care of it in a responsible manner. Not to worry... it's going to happen, and everything will fall into place.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Really... seems to me that she is in control now... no need to beat the breast (so to speak). Honestly... I think she's smarter than that. The FED is going to unwind. I'm sure they will take care of it in a responsible manner. Not to worry... it's going to happen, and everything will fall into place.

 

alright, I guess we're about to see it pretty soon

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

Really... seems to me that she is in control now... no need to beat the breast (so to speak). Honestly... I think she's smarter than that. The FED is going to unwind. I'm sure they will take care of it in a responsible manner. Not to worry... it's going to happen, and everything will fall into place.

 

markets trying to force Fed hand......still tapering?......maybe yes, but they will come with some stunt like keeping the rates lower for the next 100 years or so..........and usd will be vanished......this is positioning for fomc already, make no mistake.......

 

TW

[jpennybags 11]

markets trying to force Fed hand......still tapering?......maybe yes, but they will come with some stunt like keeping the rates lower for the next 100 years or so..........and usd will be vanished......this is positioning for fomc already, make no mistake.......

 

TW

 

From everything I've read... the market believes that the $10B reduction is a lock. The FED has already stated that interest rates will remain low for some time to come (100 years... don't know... don't care). It's all well within guidance. How the FED unwinds is still up in the air... they don't know as yet. Calm down... wait and see... play it as it comes.

[SunTrader 10]

Ahh let the wiz have his fun.

 

Seems to think trading is about "knowing".

[tradingwizzard 10]

Ahh let the wiz have his fun.

 

Seems to think trading is about "knowing".

 

I guess we're about to find out pretty soon

 

TW

[Ammeo 10]

The USD is now 1/1250th the value of what it was in 1814. That's an average drop in value of $6.25 a year. The FED has sold off gold at a rate of 66 tons per annum over the same period. At that rate, the US will have sold off 90% of it's reserves in 100 years time. Unfortunately, that's not the case. This past recession time since 2008, they have sold off nearly 1200 tons meaning that there is about 20 years of gold left at the renewed sell-off rate. As it stands now, the US owns about $343,750,000,000 worth of gold at last count. That is about 1/50th of national deficit and cannot save the country from disaster in a crash. Gold is meant to be a hedge against inflation and create a reserve to fall back on. Effectively the amount of gold held by the US is also owned by other countries and one of those is notably Germany. The US holds about $46,875,000,000 worth of German gold. Now that should tell you a lot about how the reserve currency has become a basket case due to financial mismanagement. Unless the price of gold rallies to $5000, the USD is very close to bankruptcy and loss of reserve status.

[SunTrader 10]

.... Unless the price of gold rallies to $5000, the USD is very close to bankruptcy and loss of reserve status.

If the U.S. needed $5000 gold it would happen ................. yesterday.

 

Until someone else has a bigger military ain't nothing the gold bugs can do to make it go higher unless the Fed lets it.

 

:doh:

 

Now having said this I realize at one time the Mongols, the Italians and the British and many others had the biggest militaries of their day.

 

One day we will be surpassed. Hasn't happen yet though.

[tradingwizzard 10]

so they moved on with another 10 bln and now we're having 65 injected on a monthly basis...the fact that this 2 small reduction in the QE to be the cause for the stocks meltdown?....don't think so

 

what would be the reaction if the NFP goes bad?....actually I am starting a poll about that

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

with dismal Retails Sales the other day and based on how market is positioning the usd is not looking too well....with or without the taper

 

TW

[SunTrader 10]

The Dollar has been range bound between 79 and 81 since October.

 

And further back to this time last year range bound between 79 and 85.

 

Nothing to get excited about.

[Patuca 13]

Any tapering is laughable...they will increase it more in the future..just wait and see..it will be expanded even more in the near future.

Edited February 16, 2014 by Patuca

[MightyMouse 12]

Any tapering is laughable...they will increase it more in the future..just wait and see..it will be expanded even more in the near future.

 

QE is the Fed's newest tool. In fact, QE is it's only tool that works at the moment.

[tradingwizzard 10]

S&P500 closes at record high

 

oh well....where is the tapering?

 

TW