To Taper or Not To Taper?

[tradingwizzard 10]

We all know that what drive markets now is the upcoming FOMC meeting in the middle of next week and this one is going to be followed by a press conference. Bernanke will use most likely this chance to make a statement for his entire mandate as the Chairman of Federal Reserve and this should be interested to watch.

 

Long story short, what do you say? Will they taper or not in this December? Last jobs data suggests they will, but usd still on the short side when compared with the euro, gbp....Retail Sales this week to be key, I am really looking for the release to be decisive....bigger than the forecast means taper most likely......lower than the forecast then dove Ben in the house.....

 

Any thoughts?

 

First the poll then the answers please ladies and gents.

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

House of cards balanced on matchsticks.If he leaves with no taper he can claim success.Anything else is a risk,why take it?

Economic no's will be a red herring to distract some from the obvious (to me).These figures are always revised leading to the belief that they're manipulated.

He can say things improving=policy success,fragile recovery,too early to taper.The only spanner in the works with my theory is he has to (always) choose his words extremely carefully.No doubt the insiders have been briefed as usual.

Just give me doubt and volatility please.Anything else is boring.

 

I still like your vote please.

 

Thanks.

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

I voted no before posting

 

Ah ok.....I missed that.

 

TW

[jpennybags 11]

I would've liked to see the taper being announced in September... I think it's time, and I don't think a taper would tank the markets. A 15% percent correction would be healthy. In some ways, this easy money policy has been a drag on the real economy and I think the benefits have largely been played out.

 

Whatever the fed does... I've loved trading this nonsense over the past few months... give me doubt, greed and impending peril any day.

[tradingwizzard 10]

I would've liked to see the taper being announced in September... I think it's time, and I don't think a taper would tank the markets. A 15% percent correction would be healthy. In some ways, this easy money policy has been a drag on the real economy and I think the benefits have largely been played out.

 

Whatever the fed does... I've loved trading this nonsense over the past few months... give me doubt, greed and impending peril any day.

 

I would still like to see your vote on the poll please.....

 

thanks

 

TW

[jpennybags 11]

I would still like to see your vote on the poll please.....

 

thanks

 

TW

 

I did vote before posting. Yes... 20B taper.

[tradingwizzard 10]

I did vote before posting. Yes... 20B taper.

 

there are only two votes there with no taper......so yours with 20B is missing

TW

[MightyMouse 12]

Tapering will begin when UE rates are at or below 6.5% which might not happen for a while. Who knows if it might not happen at all.

 

If it does happen, then it will be a good thing and not a bad thing; Tapering will occur when economic conditions improve. The fed will no longer stand firmly behind markets as they have in the last few years. So, there will be:

 

growing earnings, flat inflation, rising interest rates, and high stock valuations.

 

Sounds like bull market continuation to me.

 

Your vote selection is too limited.

[tradingwizzard 10]

for what is worth, I voted yes but really don't know the amount......chatter on the market that the risk is Fed will come with a schedulle for tapering the whole program at the moment the first taper is announced.

 

I watched Bullard on Bloomberg the other days and I was left with the impression they will taper

 

it remains to be seen

 

TW

[Seeker 11]

I think they've already begun to taper, they just haven't announced it. There was no option to vote that, so I went for yes, 10 billion.

[tradingwizzard 10]

I think they've already begun to taper.

 

hmm......I never thought about that to be honest...

 

TW

[SunTrader 10]

I vote no .... for the poll.

:haha:

[handle 10]

I voted no on the poll.

[tradingwizzard 10]

moment of thruth here, with 14 votes on NO tapering today and 8 on a tapering, so it remains to be seen........

 

I would say markets (at least currency markets that I trade) are positioned for a tapering today

 

Good luck everyone.

 

TW

[Seeker 11]

moment of thruth here, with 14 votes on NO tapering today and 8 on a tapering, so it remains to be seen........

 

I would say markets (at least currency markets that I trade) are positioned for a tapering today

 

Good luck everyone.

 

TW

 

What makes you say the bold part?

[tradingwizzard 10]

What makes you say the bold part?

 

The screen time I put all these years watching price action...

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

The screen time I put all these years watching price action...

 

TW

 

there you go, we have a tapering

 

cheers,

 

TW

[Seeker 11]

I think they've already begun to taper, they just haven't announced it. There was no option to vote that, so I went for yes, 10 billion.

 

10billion, spot on. What do I win?

[tradingwizzard 10]

10billion, spot on. What do I win?

 

experience....

 

TW

[SunTrader 10]

The currency pairs I see that moved dollar positive, prior to today, that might be attributed to tapering is AUDUSD and CADUSD. But don't know one way or the other truthfully if taper was the reason.

 

USDJPY not related, EURUSD and GBPUSD were going the other way as well as the inverse USDCHF. NZDUSD flat.

 

So I'd like to know where the signs were taper was being priced in?

[tradingwizzard 10]

The currency pairs I see that moved dollar positive, prior to today, that might be attributed to tapering is AUDUSD and CADUSD. But don't know one way or the other truthfully if taper was the reason.

 

USDJPY not related, EURUSD and GBPUSD were going the other way as well as the inverse USDCHF. NZDUSD flat.

 

So I'd like to know where the signs were taper was being priced in?

 

just watch markets and ask that question again when eurusd is dealing 1.3580/70 area and then say it was not related......not to mention usdjpy.............so a bit of patience please thank you

 

TW

[jpennybags 11]

Another damn fine FOMC day. I'm going to miss the FED when they depart. Glad to have had the experience though.

[Seeker 11]

just watch markets and ask that question again when eurusd is dealing 1.3580/70 area and then say it was not related......not to mention usdjpy.............so a bit of patience please thank you

 

TW

 

Doesn't make much sense. If it's already priced in that means the announcement wouldn't really affect the price - because it's already priced in.

 

Which means that rather than a down move in EURUSD, you'd expect it to stay the same level or move up.

Edited December 18, 2013 by Seeker

[SunTrader 10]

Exactly but what do we know. We don't have patience.

 

And probably need Capt Video X-Ray glasses too.

[tradingwizzard 10]

way lower than expected NFP may put the taper on hold for now.....any thoughts?

 

TW