I Really Took It on the Chin Today

[MichelGJulien 10]

I had my worst day in 2013 today exactly at a period in time (second week of my trading room) when I can least afford it. But the market doesn't care about my project, and you know what? I will still trade with the same methodology tomorrow because it has proven me over a few years that I could have confidence in it. One day doesn't make a week, and one week doesn't make a month. A trader's worst enemy is its own psyche. Trading systems are almost irrelevant because they are ALL vulnerable to the "perfect storm" that the market has in store for them sporadically. There is no way you can avoid that from time to time. Trying to outsmart the market is a fool's game and I have decided a long time ago to stop playing it.

 

The market has decided that crude is still too expensive. Going for 91 now

 

Technically speaking, we broke a few important supports today. First the $94 level, then a few hours later, $93. I was really expecting a rally to $96/97 before a resumption of the downtrend but the market has decided otherwise. Now, the door is wide opened for a test of the $91 level as I have forecasted numerous times in past articles as being the ultimate destination of this now 2-month old downside move.

 

I took 6 trades today:

 

1. Short CL 94.47 at 9:31am, exit 95.13 at 10:19am for a -66 ticks loss.

2. Long CL 95.13 at 10:19am, exit 94.56 at 11:06am for a -57 ticks profit.

3. Short CL 94.56 at 11:06am, exit 94.36 at 11:57am for a +20 ticks profit.

4. Long YM 15722 at 9:36am, exit 15737 at 9:48am for a +15 ticks profit.

5. Short YM 15702 at 10:59am, exit 15679 at 11:49am for +23 ticks profit.

6. Long YM 15685 at 2:45pm, exit 15692 at 2:50pm for a +7 ticks profit. Result: -58 ticks today

[Guest OILFXPRO]

I had my worst day in 2013 today exactly at a period in time (second week of my trading room) when I can least afford it. But the market doesn't care about my project, and you know what? I will still trade with the same methodology tomorrow because it has proven me over a few years that I could have confidence in it. One day doesn't make a week, and one week doesn't make a month. A trader's worst enemy is its own psyche. Trading systems are almost irrelevant because they are ALL vulnerable to the "perfect storm" that the market has in store for them sporadically. There is no way you can avoid that from time to time. Trying to outsmart the market is a fool's game and I have decided a long time ago to stop playing it.

 

The market has decided that crude is still too expensive. Going for 91 now

 

Technically speaking, we broke a few important supports today. First the $94 level, then a few hours later, $93. I was really expecting a rally to $96/97 before a resumption of the downtrend but the market has decided otherwise. Now, the door is wide opened for a test of the $91 level as I have forecasted numerous times in past articles as being the ultimate destination of this now 2-month old downside move.

 

I took 6 trades today:

 

1. Short CL 94.47 at 9:31am, exit 95.13 at 10:19am for a -66 ticks loss.

2. Long CL 95.13 at 10:19am, exit 94.56 at 11:06am for a -57 ticks profit.

3. Short CL 94.56 at 11:06am, exit 94.36 at 11:57am for a +20 ticks profit.

4. Long YM 15722 at 9:36am, exit 15737 at 9:48am for a +15 ticks profit.

5. Short YM 15702 at 10:59am, exit 15679 at 11:49am for +23 ticks profit.

6. Long YM 15685 at 2:45pm, exit 15692 at 2:50pm for a +7 ticks profit. Result: -58 ticks today

 

The market was choppy yesterday , and it was best to stay out ,the best strategy is to keep out of indecisive mixed context on the larger time frames

 

The dollar was weaker against euro , and commodity price go up with weak dollar , so your first trade was a non starter.Your second trade long on crude was in choppy mixed market and should have been avoided ,until a clear clean breakout was established.If I was given an opportnity to asses these two trades , I would have passed on them.These were 50 /50 trades , there was no short for me on crude yesterday .You only need to make 3 clear clean trades to make 50+ ticks a week.

 

You can't keep changing your strategy , I am not saying you do this , just cause some gives an opinion.

 

Ol saying NO TRADE is often a good trade.