Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MichelGJulien

The $101 Level on Crude Oil... Solid As a Rock?

Recommended Posts

After 5 bounces of the $101 support level since mid-July, we can confirm without a doubt that it represents THE support level to break for bears if they want to have any chance to see eventually a sub $100 crude oil price. In fact, it seems as if every time WTI's price approaches this level, something like an invisible hand stops it from breaking lower. Today it was the news that Congressional leaders were willing to accept a short-term increase in the country’s $16.7 trillion debt ceiling - therefore taking a step toward averting a default - that did the trick. Whatever the reason may be, it seems to me that some people definitely do not want to see price drop below this 3 digits number. Can this solid-as-a-rock support propels crude to new highs now? I would normally say yes, but nothing has been rally "normal" lately.

 

NEW!_Live crude oil trading room_Copy my trades in real-time_Only pay what you think the service is worth to you AFTER you have results_Info-> tradercrudeoil.blogspot.com

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=37197&stc=1&d=1381449239

Meet the "invisible hand" sitting at the $101 price level

 

Technically speaking, the bigger picture hasn't changed that much. Resistance lies above at the 20-dma (103.87) and below the support is still at the magical 101.05 floor. Should we finally break this support, 98.70 would immediately come into play in my opinion. Higher up, we would meet resistance around the 105.50/106 area. In the meantime, volatility is simply incredible on the oil market. It takes courage just to trade this monster. The joy of living dangerously (title of a book by India philosophe Osho) applies perfectly to the actual market conditions. Tomorrow, Friday, I would tend to believe that anything can happen really. Frankly, I'm not even going to try to guess which way this thing will go.

 

I took 1 new trade and completed 2 previous trades today:

 

1. Long 102.93 at 9:06am on Wednesday, exit 102.18 at 2:59am Thursday for a -75 ticks loss.

2. Long 101.44 at 10:33am on Wednesday, exit 102.18 at 2:59am Thursday for a +74 ticks profit.

3. Short 102.18 at 2:59am, exit 101.38 at 9:13am for a +80 ticks profit. Result: +79 ticks today

5aa7120314b8c_5BOUNCES.thumb.png.bb8b86c5f218b1b9b64ef61b468b8477.png

Edited by MichelGJulien

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My medium term target is 85, which should be very possible if Syria plays ball (that's a big IF). Though we might see a small bounce from here due to Fed's short term dovishness...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • ELV Elevance Health stock, watch for an upside gap breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?ELV
    • ORLY OReilly Automotive stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?ORLY
    • Date: 28th March 2025.   Market Selloff Deepens as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Investors     Global stock markets extended their losing streak for a third day as concerns over looming US tariffs and an escalating trade war dampened investor sentiment. The flight to safety saw gold prices surge to a record high, underscoring growing risk aversion. Stock Selloff Intensifies The MSCI World Index recorded its longest losing streak in a month, while Asian equities saw their sharpest decline since late February. US and European stock futures also signalled potential weakness, while cryptocurrency markets retreated and bond yields edged lower. Investors are scaling back their exposure ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2. His latest move to impose a 25% levy on all foreign-made automobiles has sparked fresh concerns over inflation and economic growth, prompting traders to reassess their strategies. Investor Strategies Shift Market experts are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of heightened volatility. ‘It’s impossible to predict Trump’s next move,’ said Xin-Yao Ng of Aberdeen Investments. ‘Our focus is on companies that are less vulnerable to tariff policies while taking advantage of market dips to find value opportunities.’ Yield Curve Signals Economic Concerns In the bond market, the spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields widened to its highest level since early 2022. Investors are bracing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts if economic growth slows further. Long-term Treasury yields hit a one-month peak as inflation risks tied to tariffs spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that while tariffs may contribute to short-term price increases, their long-term effects remain uncertain. Gold Hits Record High as Safe-Haven Demand Rises Amid market turbulence, gold prices soared 0.7% on Friday, reaching an all-time high of $3,077.60 per ounce. Major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting gold to hit $3,300 per ounce by year-end. Looking Ahead As investors digest economic data showing US growth acceleration in Q4, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves. With markets on edge and trade tensions escalating, investors will closely monitor upcoming developments, particularly Trump’s tariff announcement next week, which could further dictate market direction.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Crypto hype is everywhere since it also making new riches as well, i however trade crypto little as compared to other forex trading pairs.
    • The ewallets can be instant withdrawals like skrill etc or they can also pay through crypto but not tested their crypto withdrawals so far.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.