Dow Jones = 100,000 Target

[tradingwizzard 10]

This thread is dedicated to all the bears out there and the forecast is not mine, however, it has been made in the late 1988 when price was where it was, as you can see in the image attached. I scaned the chart from "Masterin Elliott Waves" book, written by Glen Neely, one of the best trading books ever writen.

 

The thing is that the pattern you are seeing there is called a Double Three Running and such a pattern it is ALMOST ALWAYS followed by a third wave extended impulsive move. In order for a wave to be considered extended, it should travel more than 161.8% when compared with the first wave. In this case, the extension tool should start from the absolute low, to the highs at the end of WAVE (I) and to the lows in WAVE (II).

And from that moment on we should look for an extended move.

 

All in all, the chart calls for the 100,000 level to be touched by the year 2060 if we take the time element into consideration.

 

Keep in mind the call was made when Dow was below 8000 points late 1988. No QE's, etc., known at that date, no financial crises and all this crap we are facing now.

 

So.....your opinions please? Crazy? Stupid? Impossible? ....well, as far as I know, impossible is nothing, and in this case, the buy and hold worked just fine.

 

Enjoy.

[tradingwizzard 10]

really? ....not even one opinion? I understand it was a holliday yesterday....however....or are you all long?

[Capital 10]

Definitely would not rule it out

[tradingwizzard 10]

...................anyone?

[tradingwizzard 10]

You'll have to excuse my complete disinterest in where the Dow will be in 2060.

Quite simply..........................................I fully expect to be dead.

However,if you anticipate being alive around this time you might wanna consider ceasing all trading activities immediately and just buy and hold a few blue chips and go and do something else in the meantime.But i'd check with the author (since you rate his book so highly) and find out how he plans to capitalize on this seemingly useless piece of information(?)

Finally,come back and post half a dozen reasons why we're all missing something here.

Frankly you'll be pushed to find 2 I should think.

 

Hi mits...great to see you're live and well...I was missing your sarcasm

 

I named the book as the analysis is not mine...I just scanned the chart and is logical to name the author....but I do think is a freat book as it changed my trading style

 

I would be ok with 80k for Dow Jones, so make it 2040 .....kidding earlier...probably bears are looking for some technical explanation....well, one is this:double three running and the targets above

[zdo 20]

Some opinions

1 in 2060 there won’t even be a Dow JIA index … there will be indexes but that one will either be back to really ‘industrial’ or replaced by then.

 

2 theoretically ( in economic and social theoreticals) Glenn’s projections are sound … even if it turns out he’s off by thousands of points and years.

 

3 I’ve said several times herein, the dow, to really be in a BULL right now needs to be much higher than it is… in my ‘numbers’, it needed to be at 18000 five years ago… 24000 to 28000 now…

Look at an index chart priced in gold = bear mkt .

But for you, it’s dressed up like a bull. Yes, often the biggest lies really are the easiest lies... fiat. The (realistic ??? ) ‘bulls’ are going long at “subsidized prices and when they adjust, at whatever point in the future, they [may] adjust immediately and on no volume.”

Ie the financial world is operating on false metrics … yen history of ‘lies’, europeen[sp] history of lies, dollar history of lies, etc. so

 

4 the metrics of 2060 will be different, see 2 above.

 

I can relate to why you discuss it, twiz – but most are going to find it specious…

 

All the best,

 

zdo

[tradingwizzard 10]

Some opinions

1 in 2060 there won’t even be a Dow JIA index … there will be indexes but that one will either be back to really ‘industrial’ or replaced by then.

 

2 theoretically ( in economic and social theoreticals) Glenn’s projections are sound … even if it turns out he’s off by thousands of points and years.

 

3 I’ve said several times herein, the dow, to really be in a BULL right now needs to be much higher than it is… in my ‘numbers’, it needed to be at 18000 five years ago… 24000 to 28000 now…

Look at an index chart priced in gold = bear mkt .

But for you, it’s dressed up like a bull. Yes, often the biggest lies really are the easiest lies... fiat. The (realistic ??? ) ‘bulls’ are going long at “subsidized prices and when they adjust, at whatever point in the future, they [may] adjust immediately and on no volume.”

Ie the financial world is operating on false metrics … yen history of ‘lies’, europeen[sp] history of lies, dollar history of lies, etc. so

 

4 the metrics of 2060 will be different, see 2 above.

 

I can relate to why you discuss it, twiz – but most are going to find it specious…

 

All the best,

 

zdo

 

hi zdo,

 

finally a good reply to the thread........well, probably the ones in the 90's thought the same.....and here we are 100% higher

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

Bears probably looking for some explanation... How about....bull market? .

 

I know, I know.......after markets hit all time highs everyone you ask around were bullish....let's get serious

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

still valid ........

[tradingwizzard 10]

anyone?.............:helloooo:

[zdo 20]

 

 

 

 

(

btw he mentions gov’t “shutdown” , debt ceilings, etc

some thoughts re that

Was the Debt Ceiling Crisis a Lie? | Gains Pains & Capital

 

It should also be noted – in the form of a multiple choice question

The debt ceiling has now been suspended completely for

a) 90 days

b) Forever

c) None of the above.

 

I know , I know , it’s unfathomable how I can be so dam cynical. :missy:

)

[tradingwizzard 10]

stocks rise to fresh record high, yet again.

 

100K ....anyone?

[zdo 20]

stocks rise to fresh record high, yet again.

 

100K ....anyone?

 

In addition to my attempts above to comment that such an advance denominated in USD may really not be that much of an accomplishment…

someone should also note that (and ...understandably, you’ll deny inferring such … but) an underlying tone of your posts is that it’s going to go there straightly, directly and that all one needs to do is ‘long bias’.

 

So - some ‘voice of experience’ to all our overleveraged ‘long bias’ buddies out there ---- I did very well overleveraged and ‘long bias’ in the indexes through the 90’s, but there were at least a dozen times I was ‘right’ in the long term but had I stayed long stubbornly, I would have gone bust…

 

“To inform people is hard slugging.” Paul Craig Roberts

Edited October 29, 2013 by zdo

[tradingwizzard 10]

In addition to my attempts above to comment that such an advance denominated in USD may really not be that much of an accomplishment…

someone should also note that (and ...understandably, you’ll deny inferring such … but) an underlying tone of your posts is that it’s going to go there straightly, directly and that all one needs to do is ‘long bias’.

 

So - some ‘voice of experience’ to all our overleveraged ‘long bias’ buddies out there ---- I did very well overleveraged and ‘long bias’ in the indexes through the 90’s, but there were at least a dozen times I was ‘right’ in the long term but had I stayed long stubbornly, I would have gone bust…

 

“To inform people is hard slugging.” Paul Craig Roberts

 

I'm not saying anything......of course it will not go in a straight line for God's sake.......remember 2008 crisis when Dow dipped that much? ....it was a time to buy......not saying here we're going rocketing to the moon, but pointing the direction....

 

everytime I will see on the news indices made a new all time high, I will just bring back this thread with the question.........anyone?

 

I guess only Buffett is thrilled

 

TW

[zdo 20]

I'm not saying anything

someone should say something.

 

...

 

Back on (an ET thread in TL) topic…

It is my impression that Neely thought ‘growth’ would be a much more significant factor than ‘hyperinflation’ to get us to 100000 dow. Is that your impression?

 

ie …are we @ ‘2007 America’ or @ ‘2006 Zimbabwe’ or @ … ?

A Tale of Two Charts: Are We 2007 America or 2006 Zimbabwe? | John Rubino | Safehaven.com

 

 

“To inform people is hard slugging.” Paul Craig Roberts

 

....observing those inner figures...

when an inner bear has had enough and 'finally decides' to capitulate to the long side ... is generally a good time to be one....

[zdo 20]

Twiz,

 

bump

 

It is my impression that Neely thought ‘growth’ would be a much more significant factor than ‘hyperinflation’ to get us to 100000 dow. Is that your impression?

[tradingwizzard 10]

Twiz,

 

bump

 

It is my impression that Neely thought ‘growth’ would be a much more significant factor than ‘hyperinflation’ to get us to 100000 dow. Is that your impression?

 

what did he knew back then about QE??? .....regardless the reason, here we are about to test 16 k ....

[zdo 20]

he definitely knew about 'qe' and eventual 'QE'... still it's my impression that...

 

... btw, now you're putting words in my mouth

it's not about "reason(s)"

it's more about 'relative to('s)'

 

...still bumpn the question, twiz ...

[tradingwizzard 10]

he definitely knew about 'qe' and eventual 'QE'... still it's my impression that...

 

... btw, now you're putting words in my mouth

it's not about "reason(s)"

it's more about 'relative to('s)'

 

...still bumpn the question, twiz ...

 

I know, I know,

 

thing is I am a real fan of technical analysis....I do think (and trade) based on human behaviour and take time into consideration.......not Gann or anything, but, as far as my IQ goes, I seem to keep a steady line and be profitable.......in the end this is all that matters

 

this pattern Neely shows us here, is a pattern I use in my analysis all the time, on lower time frames of course, like 1h, 4h, etc,.......and it is coming through!.....so.......don't want to be the one who is not considering fundamentals, cause I do, it brings volatility to the markets......but Neely did know something about fundamentals to come when charting this? ...no.....

 

if you look back on ANY chart bigger than daily and see the ups and downs price made through the years, can you pinpoint the FUNDAMENTAL reason that was there?....the answer is no

 

so regardless if it is Europe, Lehman Brothers, 9/11, Greece, Italy, etc.....in the end, technical analysis prevails

 

TW

[tupapa 10]

Since you ask, here is my take on the Dow:

 

We are at the top of the Trading Range, so I´d say a short is legit if the red down wave materialises itself. Initial target is the lower limit of the Trading Range, although price needn't necessarily stop there.

 

If price breaks above the Trading Range, I´d take a long after a retracement.

 

[tradingwizzard 10]

Since you ask, here is my take on the Dow:

 

We are at the top of the Trading Range, so I´d say a short is legit if the red down wave materialises itself. Initial target is the lower limit of the Trading Range, although price needn't necessarily stop there.

 

If price breaks above the Trading Range, I´d take a long after a retracement.

 

 

hi there,

 

to me on the weekly chart there it seems to be a flat, and this one is poised to break higher

 

TW

[zdo 20]

I know, I know,

 

thing is I am a real fan of technical analysis....I do think (and trade) based on human behaviour and take time into consideration.......not Gann or anything, but, as far as my IQ goes, I seem to keep a steady line and be profitable.......in the end this is all that matters

 

this pattern Neely shows us here, is a pattern I use in my analysis all the time, on lower time frames of course, like 1h, 4h, etc,.......and it is coming through!.....so.......don't want to be the one who is not considering fundamentals, cause I do, it brings volatility to the markets......but Neely did know something about fundamentals to come when charting this? ...no.....

 

if you look back on ANY chart bigger than daily and see the ups and downs price made through the years, can you pinpoint the FUNDAMENTAL reason that was there?....the answer is no

 

so regardless if it is Europe, Lehman Brothers, 9/11, Greece, Italy, etc.....in the end, technical analysis prevails

 

TW

 

good lord twiz first … I thought it was just me

then… I thought it was just him

either way…now I’m starting to ‘understand’ Mits comments to / about you over in the Fractal thread…

 

...still bumpn the question, twiz ...

[tupapa 10]

hi there,

 

to me on the weekly chart there it seems to be a flat, and this one is poised to break higher

 

TW

 

Really? And what makes you think it's poised to break higher?

 

There was a clear rejection of resistance on wednesday and both yesterday and today buyers don't seem to have it in them to make a higher high.

 

To me, this suggests buyers are reluctant towards bidding above the top of the trading range, at least for the time being.

 

Lets wait and see.

[MightyMouse 12]

Really? And what makes you think it's poised to break higher?

 

There was a clear rejection of resistance on wednesday and both yesterday and today buyers don't seem to have it in them to make a higher high.

 

To me, this suggests buyers are reluctant towards bidding above the top of the trading range, at least for the time being.

 

Lets wait and see.

 

Wait and see never made nor lost a dime.

 

Resistance, perhaps, in certain timeframes. But in the timeframes that matter to longer term traders, its all noise in the direction of geometric growth.

 

Higher is the better bet. Any threat of tapering will only increase the volatility. It will not change the direction.

[zdo 20]

Somebody pls help us out… what does whether this little congestion on the weekly breaks north or south have to do with dow making it to 100000 or not?

 

 

 

 

have a great weekend all.

Edited November 1, 2013 by tradingwizzard