Consistently Losing

[daytrade999 10]

Hi everyone,

 

I'm having problem with my trading and I want some help . I consider myself a swing trader and my method is following the trend and watching price action as confirmation for entry. My problem is I'm always losing . There are times when ny positions are in profit but I'm just not so sure when to move ny stops and then I get stopped out even when the trade was right. I try to cut losses by closing out positions that are not working the next day and Minot even sure if this is what people say cutting your losses short means. I need help people . Thanks .

[daytrade999 10]

Please anyone can you give me some help ?

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Please anyone can you give me some help ?

 

Hello,

 

Stop trading. Unless the world ends, everything will be there for you to return to when you're ready, whether that's in a week or in a decade . . . there are more productive and less frustrating ways to make progress than to continue as you are. Plus you can't lose money if you're not trading.

 

You are trading "in the dark", by which I mean you don't seem to have any clear idea of the validity of your strategy. Maybe what you're doing is great, and your approach is merely going through a drawdown . . . or maybe you're doing the exact opposite of what you should . . . the point is that you appear to have no way of knowing.

 

Share some basic information, and people will be better able to help:

 

• What instrument and timeframe are you trading?
   
  
• What platform are you using?
   
  
• How long do you typically hold a position for?
   
  
• How did you decide to trade in the fashion that you currently are?
  

 

Kind regards,

 

BlueHorseshoe

[MidKnight 12]

......and to add to what the mighty Bluehorseshoe has asked you to clarify:

- what does your trade log say about your method? (real-time only not backtest)

 

 

All of us self-taught retail traders have been there for years, so don't feel like you are the only one. It's nothing personal between you and the market, this is trading and the first few steps of a long and often winding journey.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[daytrade999 10]

Hi everyone, Thanks for the kind replies.

My timeframe for trading is I go with the daily and use the weekly for the overall trend. I will go and trade with the direction of the trend. Sometimes I get stopped out due to having a too tight of a stop to get more shares, I just don't understand how to get a higher risk reward trade without risking less for more.

 

I trade stocks mostly because of the wide variety of options to choose from. I trade small caps because I think this gives me a better chance for gains with a small account. (I might be totally wrong please correct me if I am wrong.)

 

What I typically do to put on a trade is to look at the overall market by checking the SPX and the SPY. Then I would watch if rice is making HH,HL or LL,LH to go with the short term trend. Then I will check all of the 9 sectors in the SPDR and see which ones go with the direction of the SPX and narrow it down to a screening processes in a scanner and look for stocks that are going with the trend of the general market and its corresponding sector. And I will just simply pick a dozen of stocks to watch to make a trade the next day.

 

This is all I do and I am not sure if I am on the right path but I am still losing. I think my problem might just be having a too tight of a stop on position because I am greedy and anxious and having a small account. (I think these are my weaknesses) But please give me suggestions I really want to become a full time trader one day and school is almost out for me and the real world is fast approaching that means a job is require and time spend trading will be limited.

 

Thank you all for reading .

[gflorko 10]

What do you trade? What indicators do you use? I would recommend starting out each day with a look at the one day trend. Take note of the trend lines, candlesticks, volume, etc. If you're not already using MACD and RSI, look into those. They can be quite useful, especially, when used in conjunction with each other. Try to get a sense of where you think this particular market is headed today. Keep a journal and log your accuracy percentage.

 

Write down your trading plan. Try not to classify your trades as "swing" or "scalp", or as "day trades" or "position trades". Try to determine your profit target and stop losses and stick to your plan whether a trade takes five minutes or five days to hit either the target or stop.

 

As for taking profits short of your target, that's a judgement call. If you fear that there may be some news coming out soon that could wipe out the profit you do have, get out of the position. It's kind of a "gut" call because you can't trade around news if you don't know what to expect or when.

[karoshiman 10]

You give the answers yourself in your posts above:

 

- Your stops are too tight

- You are probably undercapitalized

 

Because of your small account you fear to have a losing trade. Hence, you trail your stop… but ironically that is the reason why you lose.

 

So, as you know the problem you can now solve it. The question is, how long does it take you to solve it or how much capital do you have to destroy until you get it?

 

No offense here. As MidKnight said, we all have been there. I've read all these trading rules before I've became profitable, i.e. the knowledge about those rules didn't make me profitable. I had to experience the need for these rules myself until I finally got it right, i.e. was able to act on them accordingly.

[MidKnight 12]

But he doesn't know the problem, and instead only assumes that is the problem. No mention in the reply was there something like: "my stops are too tight because when I run the scenario of using a volatility stop of blahblahblah against my trade log then my results are significantly better". This is just an example and I'm not suggesting that as one scenario to test (although its a good area to explore )

 

Without tracking results and then testing various trade management ideas such as trailing stops, BE stops, initial stops etc. Trading development will be slow and there is no way to know where the problems lie.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[maxblaser 10]

see weekly credit spreads,

[gflorko 10]

Hi everyone,

 

I'm having problem with my trading and I want some help . I consider myself a swing trader and my method is following the trend and watching price action as confirmation for entry. My problem is I'm always losing . There are times when ny positions are in profit but I'm just not so sure when to move ny stops and then I get stopped out even when the trade was right. I try to cut losses by closing out positions that are not working the next day and Minot even sure if this is what people say cutting your losses short means. I need help people . Thanks .

 

What do you trade? Do you check weekly charts going into each day? Try to get a feel for where you think the market you're trading is going at the start of each trading day. Draw trend lines on the weekly chart. Use MACD and RSI. They are pretty useful indicators.

[sweet n´sour 10]

I would suggest to focus on a limited number of stocks. Perhaps take 2 or 3 stocks from each sector representing this particular sector and stay with them. You should carefully pick these stocks monitoring their movement in comparison to their corresponding sector. Look at the charts and get a feel for the behavior of the single stock, when the sector is going up, down or sideways.

 

Than you do the same for the behavior of the whole sector in comparison to the market itself (SPX, SPY).

 

You should have a clear picture of what the sector usually does in comparison to the market at a given time and you should have a clear picture of what the stock does in comparison to the sector. Backtest the trading ideas you get from this monitoring.

 

Look for price action patterns in the single stocks that could give you an edge. Always look for entries and targets and probability of success and risk/reward. Always look at all of these together. Backtest the ideas you get from this. :missy::hmmmm::idea:

 

Use the market and the sector for general trend direction (as a filter) and trade the price pattern setups that have been profitable in the backtesting.

 

Don´t be greedy and expect more profit than your backtests suggested. Expect much less profit instead (perhaps 60%-70% of the backtest results.)

 

Don´t rush anything because you are running out of time. Try to prepare for part time trading (while working on the regular job) instead. Once trading makes you enough money you can come back to full time trading again.

 

With kind regards,

sweet n´sour

[daytrade999 10]

Thanks all for these great suggestions . Big thanks to sweet n sour you really made it clear and concise for me. I will narrow my options down to a very limited number and focus on there price behavior for now to get the feel. I really appreciate this. If further recommendation and helpful ideas come by I would really be grateful for the advices ahead.

 

Thanks everyone .!!

[estate1997 10]

daytrader999,

From my view point your wandering around looking for stocks.

Focus on a small group of stocks and learn how they move.

If you see an opportunity today, don't wait till the next day to trade. By the time you enter the move is completed.

Make sure your stops are held on your computer and not on the broker computer. Market makers see them and they are easy money for them.

Stick to high volume stocks that cannot be manipulated so easy.

Learn first on a sim account for months prior to putting cash on the line.

If I had only one indicator to use it would be Linear Regression Channel. Set the length to 10 and ATR to 1.1.

Good luck

[daytrade999 10]

Thank you estate 1997,

 

Do you guys suggest picking 20 -25 stocks a week as a watch list good enough to start or wood that b to much to look at? And by filter , wha does the mean btw I'm not very familiar with that . It someone can expand on that it would be great.

 

Cheers!

[tradingwizzard 10]

Thank you estate 1997,

 

Do you guys suggest picking 20 -25 stocks a week as a watch list good enough to start or wood that b to much to look at? And by filter , wha does the mean btw I'm not very familiar with that . It someone can expand on that it would be great.

 

Cheers!

 

20-25 stocks a week is quite a lot from my own experience and keep in mind that trading is not a race...one should not trade all the time as the risk of overtrading is quite high and no one is right all the time.....

 

while I am not trading stocks, but mainly currency markets, even there this is what I usually do: I look at all possible currency pairs (26 pairs I am watching) and, by the time a specific pattern appears on any one pair (but on a high enough time frame - looking from the 4h chart and above), then I am focusing on the next week on that one pair: going down to the 1h chart and even lower for the 5 min chart and look for all the clues to confirm the pattern on the higher time frame....and the account I am trading is directed on that specific pattern and currency pair until the pattern is done......this might take some time as sometimes I am trading contracting triangles on the daily chart and by the time a contracting triangle is breaking might be weeks/months, and that should keep me busy quite some time.....

 

another advice I have for you is to take into consideration price is mainly consolidating than trending, so trying to look for the begining of a trend is not that easy, as trends do not change/start that often....so look to trade for small profits 20-30 even 10 pips, but try to do 5-10 trades a day and you will see that you are having 100 pips profit possible to be make when price is actually moving a lot less.........

 

last but no least, divide your entries...scale into a position

 

good luck

[daytrade999 10]

20-25 stocks a week is quite a lot from my own experience and keep in mind that trading is not a race...one should not trade all the time as the risk of overtrading is quite high and no one is right all the time.....

 

while I am not trading stocks, but mainly currency markets, even there this is what I usually do: I look at all possible currency pairs (26 pairs I am watching) and, by the time a specific pattern appears on any one pair (but on a high enough time frame - looking from the 4h chart and above), then I am focusing on the next week on that one pair: going down to the 1h chart and even lower for the 5 min chart and look for all the clues to confirm the pattern on the higher time frame....and the account I am trading is directed on that specific pattern and currency pair until the pattern is done......this might take some time as sometimes I am trading contracting triangles on the daily chart and by the time a contracting triangle is breaking might be weeks/months, and that should keep me busy quite some time.....

 

another advice I have for you is to take into consideration price is mainly consolidating than trending, so trying to look for the begining of a trend is not that easy, as trends do not change/start that often....so look to trade for small profits 20-30 even 10 pips, but try to do 5-10 trades a day and you will see that you are having 100 pips profit possible to be make when price is actually moving a lot less.........

 

last but no least, divide your entries...scale into a position

 

good luck

 

Thank you for the great insight this really helped me sort things out.

Regarding the time frames wha do ou suggest is a good approach to it such as exits wise? Do you get out on the 60min or a trailing stop ? (For stocks I wood use dail and weekly for main trend and 6

[daytrade999 10]

20-25 stocks a week is quite a lot from my own experience and keep in mind that trading is not a race...one should not trade all the time as the risk of overtrading is quite high and no one is right all the time.....

 

while I am not trading stocks, but mainly currency markets, even there this is what I usually do: I look at all possible currency pairs (26 pairs I am watching) and, by the time a specific pattern appears on any one pair (but on a high enough time frame - looking from the 4h chart and above), then I am focusing on the next week on that one pair: going down to the 1h chart and even lower for the 5 min chart and look for all the clues to confirm the pattern on the higher time frame....and the account I am trading is directed on that specific pattern and currency pair until the pattern is done......this might take some time as sometimes I am trading contracting triangles on the daily chart and by the time a contracting triangle is breaking might be weeks/months, and that should keep me busy quite some time.....

 

another advice I have for you is to take into consideration price is mainly consolidating than trending, so trying to look for the begining of a trend is not that easy, as trends do not change/start that often....so look to trade for small profits 20-30 even 10 pips, but try to do 5-10 trades a day and you will see that you are having 100 pips profit possible to be make when price is actually moving a lot less.........

 

last but no least, divide your entries...scale into a position

 

good luck

 

Thank you for the great insight this really helped me sort things out.

Regarding the time frames wha do ou suggest is a good approach to it such as exits wise? Do you get out on the 60min or a trailing stop ? (For stocks I wood use dail and weekly for main trend and 60 to monitor the traceable 5 Minfor precise low risk entry). What would you do ?

 

Cheers!

[gflorko 10]

Thank you for the great insight this really helped me sort things out.

Regarding the time frames wha do ou suggest is a good approach to it such as exits wise? Do you get out on the 60min or a trailing stop ? (For stocks I wood use dail and weekly for main trend and 60 to monitor the traceable 5 Minfor precise low risk entry). What would you do ?

 

Cheers!

 

If you're having trouble with individual stocks, try trading the equity index ETF's (DIA for dow, SPY for S&P and QQQ for NASDAQ). Watch the indicators I've mentioned previously in this thread. That may help simplify things.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Hi Daytrade999,

 

It's good to see that you're getting lots of useful advice and ideas from the thread, and I hope it's helping you to make some progress.

 

I think the idea of looking at the broader market direction is a useful one. Do you look at how closely allied the behaviour of a stock and the S&P is? There are several measures you could use for this, correlation probably being to simplest. Is the S&P the best representation of the broader market? What about an ETF like VTI, which is all US stocks? If you're putting on numerous positions each day in individual stocks, are you hedging against market shocks?

 

Try out lots of ideas. For example, what happens when you trade counter-trend in a stock that is trader counter to the direction of the sector and broader market? What about if the stock is trading short term counter to it's own longer term trend? What happens if the sector trades counter to both the broader market trend and it's own long term trend - which stocks in the sector are the best to trade - those that lead or lag?

 

Learning how to do all of this with a computer (rather than by hand) is by far the quickest approach in the long run.

 

Also, instead of allowing suggestions like mine or anyone else's to influence you decision to trade or not to trade, another option is just to stick with much simpler criteria for that decision, and then allow all these filters to influence the size of the position.

 

As for what happens next in terms of your employment/education, then there is a simple solution - trade end-of-day only and get on with the rest of your life for the rest of the time.

 

Kind regards.

 

BlueHorseshoe

[Ammeo 10]

Hi everyone,

 

I'm having problem with my trading and I want some help . I consider myself a swing trader and my method is following the trend and watching price action as confirmation for entry. My problem is I'm always losing . There are times when ny positions are in profit but I'm just not so sure when to move ny stops and then I get stopped out even when the trade was right. I try to cut losses by closing out positions that are not working the next day and Minot even sure if this is what people say cutting your losses short means. I need help people . Thanks .

 

For swing traders (especially the ones who want to take their trades to multiple weeks and not days) i would recommend having a look at top Analyst Rating sites like Moody's, Fitch, Zacks etc along with Corporate Banks Outlook (UBS,JP Morgan,Credit Suisse) to have a broader insight for the current equity or any other asset to be traded. These ratings are available on the web but needs some due diligence.

 

Happy Swing Trading.

[sergso 10]

Hi everyone,

 

I'm having problem with my trading and I want some help . I consider myself a swing trader and my method is following the trend and watching price action as confirmation for entry. My problem is I'm always losing . There are times when ny positions are in profit but I'm just not so sure when to move ny stops and then I get stopped out even when the trade was right. I try to cut losses by closing out positions that are not working the next day and Minot even sure if this is what people say cutting your losses short means. I need help people . Thanks .

 

Your problem is too common so be sure it has nothing to do with your intelligence or ability. It mostly has to do in my opinion with the naive ways to trading you were exposed to through reading of books, associations with self-proclaimed gurus and article reading in the Internet and trading magazines. I do not know the details of what you do but in general to make money you have to move beyond what is common knowledge about trading.

 

A few very important things in my opinion:

 

(1) Be adequately capitalized (this is a must read article for all new traders)

 

(2) Aim at a high reward:risk ratio. If you have a low R:R you need to be correct very often and that is hard, if not impossible.

 

(3) Leave intraday trading to the experts and robots. You cannot compete with that class or you will lose everything and they will have a nice time with your money. Learn first how to win in position trading with wide enough stops and large enough objectives to have a high R:R.

 

(4) If you will use technical analysis make sure you can use it better than the experts otherwise they will enjoy your money.

 

(5) Avoid leverage and trading on margin. Eventually your lenders will get you.

 

...and do not quite trading, just downsize until you understand what is going on because now you do not. Good luck to you.

[tradingwizzard 10]

to make money you have to move beyond what is common knowledge about trading.

 

 

best advice in a long time, I totally agree with that one .....however, sometimes my biggest losses are happening not because I am not right....but just because I am a bit too early right.......in the sense that the trap of looking a step forward in your analysis sometimes gives you a competitive advantage, but sometimes it won't.....and there it comes psychology: patience, knowing yourself, ability to cope with temporary losses.......and, like sergso says, the account size

 

a big like from me for that response

[daytrade999 10]

Your problem is too common so be sure it has nothing to do with your intelligence or ability. It mostly has to do in my opinion with the naive ways to trading you were exposed to through reading of books, associations with self-proclaimed gurus and article reading in the Internet and trading magazines. I do not know the details of what you do but in general to make money you have to move beyond what is common knowledge about trading.

 

A few very important things in my opinion:

 

(1) Be adequately capitalized (this is a must read article for all new traders)

 

(2) Aim at a high reward:risk ratio. If you have a low R:R you need to be correct very often and that is hard, if not impossible.

 

(3) Leave intraday trading to the experts and robots. You cannot compete with that class or you will lose everything and they will have a nice time with your money. Learn first how to win in position trading with wide enough stops and large enough objectives to have a high R:R.

 

(4) If you will use technical analysis make sure you can use it better than the experts otherwise they will enjoy your money.

 

(5) Avoid leverage and trading on margin. Eventually your lenders will get you.

 

...and do not quite trading, just downsize until you understand what is going on because now you do not. Good luck to you.

 

Thank you to thirds great tips .

 

These really reflect what I was and am still doing wrong. But now I can use these to refine my trading plan. I was always thinking about a 1:1 risk reward a d once I get to that target I will take half the position and put the stop at break even. But seeing having higher R/R is good I think I might try this out with a wider stop.

 

Thank you !

[daytrade999 10]

Hi Daytrade999,

 

It's good to see that you're getting lots of useful advice and ideas from the thread, and I hope it's helping you to make some progress.

 

I think the idea of looking at the broader market direction is a useful one. Do you look at how closely allied the behaviour of a stock and the S&P is? There are several measures you could use for this, correlation probably being to simplest. Is the S&P the best representation of the broader market? What about an ETF like VTI, which is all US stocks? If you're putting on numerous positions each day in individual stocks, are you hedging against market shocks?

 

Try out lots of ideas. For example, what happens when you trade counter-trend in a stock that is trader counter to the direction of the sector and broader market? What about if the stock is trading short term counter to it's own longer term trend? What happens if the sector trades counter to both the broader market trend and it's own long term trend - which stocks in the sector are the best to trade - those that lead or lag?

 

Learning how to do all of this with a computer (rather than by hand) is by far the quickest approach in the long run.

 

Also, instead of allowing suggestions like mine or anyone else's to influence you decision to trade or not to trade, another option is just to stick with much simpler criteria for that decision, and then allow all these filters to influence the size of the position.

 

As for what happens next in terms of your employment/education, then there is a simple solution - trade end-of-day only and get on with the rest of your life for the rest of the time.

 

Kind regards.

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

 

Wow thank you to the part on correlations . I was always interested in how markets move and how I can counter trade different types of market. I really like to use the spx to gauge the market because I know the professionals are doing it . I like to focus on small caps but I'm not sure if the spx is the right one or should I use the Russell ? Either way the spx is still very useful to me .

 

If you can provide me with a way to learn more about the counter trend trade part in the above paragraph I would be really grateful for that .

 

Also I only look at end of day charts because they are more reliable to me. I usually use the 60 min to focus on during the day time and the 5 min for execution to get the best price. If I am wrong in my timeframe selection please correct me.

 

Overall thank you for the help !

 

Cheers !

[MidKnight 12]

Thank you to thirds great tips .

 

These really reflect what I was and am still doing wrong. But now I can use these to refine my trading plan. I was always thinking about a 1:1 risk reward a d once I get to that target I will take half the position and put the stop at break even. But seeing having higher R/R is good I think I might try this out with a wider stop.

 

Thank you !

 

It is usually a balancing act in your method. The higher the RR, the lower the win% will be. There will be a point within any method where the higher the RR lowers the win% too much that it is not profitable anymore. Also a high RR needs to be realistic and not just set as high because you need it high if you know what I mean. What does you trade log say - How would you trades that you have taken be if you set your targets at N*risk? How would they be if instead you set them at an ATR multiple?

 

In my personal testing of every trading method I have explored over the last 9 years of full-time trading, taking 1/2 off at 1:1 and leaving the rest at BE is a bad idea. It sounds good, it feels good, and it produces worse results than if I had just taken the whole thing off at 1:1. The only exception to this was very short-term scalping in high volatility conditions. Your mileage may vary and that is what your trade log is for - test out the scenario against your real, but historical results.

 

With kind regards,

MK

Edited September 4, 2013 by MidKnight