No Follow Through (NFT) - A Powerful Message

[PristineTrading 10]

It was almost twenty-five years ago that I began my education on the markets and technical based trading. After a period of time using the indicator based method still used today, I came to the realization that method was too subjective. I also saw times (too many) that price could move in the opposite direction signaled by an indicator or a group of them. Pattern recognition was the only concept that made sense; however, the most powerful price concept I discovered was NFT.

 

Before I get to the concept of NFT, I first have to touch on some basics of Candlesticks. Candlestick analysis essentially is the recognition of reversal patterns. There are one, two or three bar candlestick reversals have different names like Dark-Cloud Cover, Morning Star, Evening Star, Shooting Star, Star, Hammer, Inverted Hammer, Doji and there are many more. All indicate a turn and the probability of a price movement in the direction of the reversal. Some with a stall in momentum first or at the same time of the reversal pattern. It all depends on the time frame being viewed, so candle patterns change or can even conflict.

 

The explanation of these candle reversals related to multiple time frames (MTF) analysis is virtually non-existent in the education industry. Why? Because an understanding of MTF makes all of these names unnecessary. If you understand that if prices move in one direction and suddenly turned in the other, it's a reversal. What difference does it make if it happened in one, two or three candles? A two or three candle reversal is a one candle reversal in a higher time frame and vice versa. It comes down to understanding MFT and retracements between reference points. You're getting an insight into Pristine education.

 

As I studied and traded these individual candle or multiple candle reversals that had No follow Through (NFT), it became clear that NFT was a very powerful message. Price patterns are a reflection of what traders and investors believe and have acted on with real money. Money, put into action has emotion connected to it, and when beliefs and emotions in the moment change abruptly - it's a message to pay close attention to. Let's look at a normal or typical type of a reversal and an NTF. Both are tradable when combined with other supporting technicals; however, the NFT concept expands your opportunities and increases your odds of profitable trading setups.

 

 

The above chart of Citibank © shows typical reversal signals within an uptrend. It doesn't matter what the name of the signal is according to the candlestick textbook. Even the novice to candle technical analysis can see the turn. Can you begin to see how the names are irrelevant now? If there was a Doji candle between those reversal candles, would it change your opinion of the turn?

 

 

In the above chart of QCOM, there's a big bearish candle (doesn't matter what its name is, it's big) signaling lower prices. Rather than following through lower, QCOM had NFT and negated the bearish signal. Clearly, buyers were in control and were going to continue running over sellers. Can you imagine being a seller inside that big bearish candle? How are feeling the next day? What are going to do? As a trader or investors recognizing the NFT, can you take advantage of this?

 

 

he concept of NFT is universal to all tradable instruments, since anything traded is affected by human beliefs and emotions. In the above chart of the Aussie dollar versus the U.S. dollar is another big bearish candle that had NFT. The move above that bearish candle hasn't happened to confirm the signal yet, but the NFT to it suggests that short-sellers are caught and a counter-trend move that will likely test price resistance and the declining 20-MA is coming once prices move above that bearish red candle.

 

No Follow Through is a concept that I developed years ago after getting caught in trades based on candles that were negated. The NFT concept along with my Bar-by-Bar concept will put you the right side of most trades. While there is no guarantee of a sure thing in the markets, NFT when combined with other Pristine concepts is the closest thing to it you're going find to it.

 

 

Greg Capra

President & CEO

Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc