A Rally Led by "Goldman Sachs" on the Oil Market Today?

[MichelGJulien 10]

A few minutes after the open of the pit session (unintended timing for sure) ZeroHedge tweeted on its stream that Goldman Sachs had just issued a statement regarding the oil market that went like this: "Oil price risks skewed to the upside". That's it! Seven words. But coming from Goldman, there's really never anything that is "unintended". Of course, like magic, the market started to rally substantially. In fact, it never really retraced for the rest of the pit session, closing almost $2.50 from the open price. My guess is they had some pretty massive longs to cover and needed a "little push" to the upside. How convenient! Of course, I can't be 100% sure of what I'm saying but, hey, this wouldn't be the first time such a thing happen. Especially considering the COT large speculators heavy net long position of late. Those positions have to be unwinded at some point, right?

 

Anyway, for today, forget about ebb and flow as the market was rather unidirectional. Shorts didn't stand a chance to win anything of value in this type of environment. They had to run for the hills instead. The market opened at 103.76, a tiny bit above and outside of yesterday's range and value area, and as I said started immediately to go up and never looked back. All of the major resistances including yesterday's gap at 104.37, Wednesday's VPOC at the 104.82/98 level and 105.75 (a main resistance area of prior sessions), were all blown to pieces by the Goldman train. An hour into the pit session, the volatility was already high with the initial balance registring at 127 ticks. A big 33% above its 10-day average. Talking about volatility, I think we are going to get a lot more in the course of next week because the market stands at a very important junction again, where it either blows through the roof (the Goldman call) or correct more than it had over the last 3 weeks (my take). In any case, I like to trade when the market is volatile as it gives me more opportunities to find good long and short entry setups.

 

After a retest of 108, we may drop to 100 longer term

 

I took 2 trades today:

 

1. Long 104.34 at 9:21, exit 104.55 at 9:26 for a +21 ticks profit.

2. Short 105.75 at 11:55, exit 105.50 at 12:07 for a +25 ticks profit. Results: +46 ticks today, +193 ticks this week. Have a nice weekend!

 

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[sergso 10]

Trading on news is like trying to figure what happens in the universe now by looking at the stars. What you see is what happened millions of transactions before.

[ntrader 10]

It is really frastrating when the big guys move the markets, SEC must monitor these guys very closely and punish them

[bobcollett 10]

Trading on news is like trying to figure what happens in the universe now by looking at the stars. What you see is what happened millions of transactions before.

 

Hi sergio

How do you think the Big Boys trade., with 3 moving averages and RSI?

Nope. They trade from fundamentals... earnings..... news....GDP.....and that early billionare, JP Morgan used the stars.

So , not so fast.

regards

bobc.

[bobcollett 10]

It is really frastrating when the big guys move the markets, SEC must monitor these guys very closely and punish them

 

On Friday, China reported an increase of 5.5% in OIl usage for the year to July.

Together with a 7.5% increase in exports reported earlier.

There is strong demand.

Goldmans get this info FIRST and reacts accordingly.

RULE No. I

When an institution tells you something is a BUY, you know they bought yesterday.

So maybe Sergio is right

regards bobc

[MichelGJulien 10]

On Friday, China reported an increase of 5.5% in OIl usage for the year to July.

Together with a 7.5% increase in exports reported earlier.

There is strong demand.

Goldmans get this info FIRST and reacts accordingly.

RULE No. I

When an institution tells you something is a BUY, you know they bought yesterday.

So maybe Sergio is right

regards bobc

 

Guys,

Goldman Sachs has a long history of misleading the market to achieve its short term objectives. If they say buy, it's because they want to get out of their longs. So they are selling all the way while creating the impression they recommend buying. That's what my post was all about. Judging by some of the comments I read here, I think I wasn't very clear. I'll try harder for my next post. :-)

Michel