Is This A New Bull Market Or Are We Reaching A Top

[Ammeo 10]

Some Analysts are predicting 2014 may see a big fall in the market.

Personally i think its way too early as the market seems at a well adjusted price.

[MightyMouse 12]

Some Analysts are predicting 2014 may see a big fall in the market.

Personally i think its way too early as the market seems at a well adjusted price.

 

When did the old bull market end?

[johnw 10]

I can think of 85B reasons every month why this current bull market will continue.

 

Take any of these away and the world will change.

 

S&P has grown 12% this year and GDP is supposedly up 1.7%

 

At 85B per month, this life support package is just over 1T per year.

Place this over a 15T economy and it simply means that life support of 6.7%

yields growth of 1.7%

[MightyMouse 12]

I can think of 85B reasons every month why this current bull market will continue.

 

Take any of these away and the world will change.

 

S&P has grown 12% this year and GDP is supposedly up 1.7%

 

At 85B per month, this life support package is just over 1T per year.

Place this over a 15T economy and it simply means that life support of 6.7%

yields growth of 1.7%

 

The change will change the near linear ascent of the S&P. It will create some big zig zags for us to take advantage of until they re-engage in QE again. I think it will continue higher, but it will go higher with a lot more volatility than we have been accustomed to experiencing.

 

We have to learn to accept that QE is here to stay indefinitely. It is a new arrow in the fed quiver.

 

We'll be in a low interest rate environment for a long, long time, provided we do not experience supply shocks the way we did in the 70's.

[zdo 20]

...a well adjusted price.

 

???

 

imo, the dow needs to cross 24,000 (that's ~ 8600 points higher than the cash is now) to even be remotely approaching Bull...

ie if you're not first seriously questioning any nominal chart you look at, you're under the influence of neptune, the god of delusion...

[mickeybh 10]

I hope MightMouse is right as I'm long UVXY and SDS..... LOL Not hurt too bad.... YET, just been a drag on overall profits. Flat all my stocks and playing the VIX, short S&P and Natgas, trying to figure out when to re-enter TBT took it from 60 to 75ish, now will it fall back into the high 60s for re-entry. Thinking of selling the Dec 70 puts and see.

[mickeybh 10]

Just an an alternative,left field view,through the mandelbrot door.Maybe a temp top pattern..

 

We shall see won't we. Everybody is long. The commentators, analysts the barber, the cab driver, the friends at work. We know what's happened in the past. Some of the naysayers are sayin we are seeing classic distribution up here. I hope they are right. A 10% pullback would be very nice. TBT is where I think we can make some bucks. I'm hoping for the yield (10 yr) to pull back to 2 or so, then long TBT again. In fact as I said thinking of selling the Dec 70 puts maybe 68, will be glad to own it at that price. Nat gas (UNG) I'm in halfway here will keep buying slow, as we'll see the low 20s (maybe more) again this winter. I'm afraid of all my favorite stocks just nose bleeding highs here. I think after we pull back and start moving again, I like Apple, and I'm pissed I never touched facebook. Don't understand Netflix, I will keep buying puts because one of these days that one is gonna crash. Too much right has to happen and if they think they will own that space well I think some other players may have something to say about that. Gold miners ahh dont know. Housing over for now. That's about what I play. Over and out and happy trading.

[ntrader 10]

It is time for correction, this is not a bull market is just a bubble from nowhere, i am buying puts and calls on VIX

[Ammeo 10]

When did the old bull market end?

 

i think i misrepresented my question a bit, i should have asked " the 2009 and beyond bull market" ..

[Ammeo 10]

Looking weaker.1685/1700 key levels

 

2014 may be an year when we may see a halt to this bullish market, personally im seeing 2014 as an year of consolidation for markets but dont expect any crash.

[Patuca 13]

When did the old bull market end?

August 4, 2013

 

Patuca

[Ammeo 10]

Bear market begins within first quarter of 2014.Typically,the dip buyers will keep buying the dips until they accept the bull is over....

 

There are for sure going to be corrections and what not but all will be buying opportunities. Tapering is priced in, the economy is working, now its time to focus on, really focus, on earnings and jobs growth. Corporate balance sheets are in the best condition they have been in for years, maybe decades. Once the money starts flowing again profits will soar. Best case scenario....it could all go to hell real quick too..

[sergso 10]

Good traders do not case if the market will rise or drop. This is of concern to investors. My trades last from a few hours to a few days and I use detrended data anyway.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Just an an alternative,left field view,through the mandelbrot door.Maybe a temp top pattern..

 

hi Mits.....long time no see.....anyways, my experience with fractals is not that positive as one might think.....so a proper understanding of the concept would most likely be usefull then just labeling from 1-8 blue and 1-8 red........visuals always help, but anyways...

 

to answer this thread, and I will start one in the days to come, this is AS BULLISH AS IT GETS......to quote the famous movie with Jack Nicholson..........yes, this is a bull market, but I don't think it began now.....we're just in the middle (early beginings) of it