WTI: It All Happened During the Last Hour of the Pit

[MichelGJulien 10]

I hate to look like I am bragging about my "talent" as an analyst, but my forecast from yesterday was again spot on today. Last night when I mentioned that there was a huge volume area at 104.50, granted we break below 105 again, I could not have been more right. The only thing is that it took almost the entire session before my prediction materialized. In fact, we had to wait until the last hour of the pit session before the 104.90/105 area finally gave way, sending the market down to the 104.15/20 level. When I got to my computer this morning, I noticed that the market had spent roughly the last 24 hours stuck between 105.00/70. Therefore, from my point of view, breakouts outside this zone were going to be significant. The market opened at 105.15, which was inside yesterday's range and value area. Initial balance came in at 95 ticks, i.e. 15% above its rising 10-day average. We can say that volatility was again on the rise today, especially during the period preceding the release of the DOE inventories numbers, and maybe for half an hour after also.

 

Likely target now down to the 103.00/25 area

 

From a trading point of view, price's been basically just rotating around the open price for most of the session today. Needless to say that this environment was not very suitable for my short-term-scalping trading style. I definitely need a market that trends and not a choppy one. Out of frustration I even tweeted at one point: "Once you think that it's going lower or higher, it does the opposite. Shit day"! You get the picture? Frankly, I was out of sync with the market today. Although, I knew where it was going, I wasn't really "in the zone" able to capitalize on the (few) interesting moves we got. Well, it happens sometimes. You can't win every day. Folks, the thing I still have to struggle with after that many years trading is... PATIENCE. Something to work on for sure. Meditation maybe?

 

I took 3 trades today:

 

1. Long 105.16 at 11:25, exit 104.88 at 12:09 for a -28 ticks loss.

2. Short 104.88 at 12:09, exit 104.88 at 13:10 for a breakeven trade.

3. Short 104.65 at 13:33, exit 104.50 at 13:36 for a +15 ticks profit. Result: -13 ticks today.

 

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[bobcollett 10]

Hi Mike

I rather like where you have show support... where there was previous volume

I assume the right hand graphic is PRICE ON VOLUME.

And my theory is where there is low volume , price will move quickly through it.

Please correct me if I am wrong

regards

bobc

[MichelGJulien 10]

Hi Mike

I rather like where you have show support... where there was previous volume

I assume the right hand graphic is PRICE ON VOLUME.

And my theory is where there is low volume , price will move quickly through it.

Please correct me if I am wrong

regards

bobc

 

Bob,

Yep, all you mentioned is 100% correct.

Michel