Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

The Bear

Market Internals for Oil

Recommended Posts

How could there be something like that? TICK and TRIN are specific to stock indices where the underlying is made up of many different stocks. Crude oil is just crude oil.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Cooter. I was reading those reports from that website a few months ago and I do trade on wed., but I find the reports to be pretty useless for intra-day trading for my style. Maybe more useful for overnight?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Could be. But I'm curious, Bear. Unless you have access to a Bloomberg, Reuters or Dow Jones terminal, you are at the mercy of news and rumours.

 

How do you trade technically, unless your assumption is that the fundamentals are already "baked in" to the price?

 

I'd think that one outlying, Six Sigma event and you're done.

 

Thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

no cooter : an internal is a breath statistical index from a sector of the market.... there are very diferent aproaches on the construction of internals, but the idea is to know the overrall market sentiment thru this indexes.... foroil... I dont know.... what "market" context would apply...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  cooter said:
Could be. But I'm curious, Bear. Unless you have access to a Bloomberg, Reuters or Dow Jones terminal, you are at the mercy of news and rumours.

 

How do you trade technically, unless your assumption is that the fundamentals are already "baked in" to the price?

 

I'd think that one outlying, Six Sigma event and you're done.

 

Thoughts?

 

Honestly though Cooter, I trade oil every day, and even if I had those news terminals, there's no way I could react quickly enough to read the data then trade on that news, or even have it reflect my trading actions. I'm sure you already know, but trading CL is mostly a bloodbath...it moves very fast, and spikes during the day....it's mostly whipsaw. Your right though, a big event could hurt me, but for now I can handle it - i'm not married and I have no children, but you are technically correct...I could blow up...but so can any speculator trading CL or any highly leveraged commodity for that matter.

 

So to answer your question, I use very little fundamental analysis....because personally I think by the time the news comes out...the spike has already happened at the exchange. It's OLD NEWS already.

 

Walter, I can't get the chart for CL because it's on my trading system not my net surfing system. The symbol is CL. If you can't get CL you maybe can get QM the mini contract, OR if you want you can see oil by looking at USO (United States Oil Fund) AMEX. You probably could get daily data on it from USO. USO is a good market for doing overnight trading on oil...and you can share size too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  notouch said:
They're related markets but definitely not internals.

 

Crude oil is useless unless you dont turn it into products. Most of trades on crude oil are spreads. That's what the exxon's of the world care. Not the price of crude.

 

Maybe they are not market internals, but it is a industry internals. These spreads and oil prices are affecting each others, just like the S&P uptick because the NYSE tick is moving up. If crack spread move up, dont you think refiners would want to buy crude and run it thru the refineries?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Hey Bear,

Just curious as to why you trade the big CL contract, versus the QM mini? What is the margin on these?

 

How many ticks are you looking to net - scalping or daytrading. Or do you hold out for longer, swing or position trading?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi cooter

 

I prefer the regular size contracts rather than the mini ones. I like the larger risk and the larger potential gain, that happens within seconds. I did trade the QM contract last year a bit, but I found I got some slippage at times intraday...1 tick at the most. The CL contract is the main market and that's where I feel at home for some reason. QM is great for situations where you want to scale down your risk though, and it's perfectly fine for slightly larger time frames.

 

Margin on the CL is around 2000.00 per contract intraday and around 4000.00 per contract pre/post market. Margin may be even lower on ICE, I'm not sure.

 

I trade in different time frames...like the 5-min, 15-min for example....but I go for different targets...usually 30 ticks....sometimes less, sometimes more.

 

I'm not much of a swing trader or position trader (not very good at it), but I'm slowly getting into it again. 2 years ago I was swing trading quite a bit. I'm trying to swing trade MRO (Marathon Oil), and picked up some a few days ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Bear,

 

Horses for courses, as they say :) What about the other energies - Nat Gas, RBOB Unleaded, Heating Oil, even Ethanol (which is classified under grains by some)?

 

Also, one of my brokers just offered me well under $2000 margins on the energy contracts - guess I'll have to check my paperwork and make sure I've got this rate in writing :cool:

 

If you're trading size here, you might want to drop me a PM and I'll fill you in with details.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  cooter said:
Bear,

 

Horses for courses, as they say :) What about the other energies - Nat Gas, RBOB Unleaded, Heating Oil, even Ethanol (which is classified under grains by some)?

 

Also, one of my brokers just offered me well under $2000 margins on the energy contracts - guess I'll have to check my paperwork and make sure I've got this rate in writing :cool:

 

If you're trading size here, you might want to drop me a PM and I'll fill you in with details.

 

Yo cooter, can you help me out and tell me if there are any forums on the net where oil traders...or any energy for that matter post messages? I trade Natural Gas (Symbol: NG) (Henry Hub) quite often. I used to trade it more than oil but it's been very erratic lately, mostly un-tradable for me. I wish I followed the RBOB market, this is where the action is, but at this point im a bit scared to just take a flyer.

 

Have you ever traded the NG market cooter?

 

Thanks for the offer bud, but do send me a PM once you are setup with your new rates and trading Oil or Gas. Or let me know if you trade the RBOB what it's like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

Dunno where the energy traders hang out - try googling it, you might find a forum or two for fellow gas or oil traders.

 

Can't say I've traded any of the energies yet - I think the grains suit my overall risk/reward ratio better.

 

(Still trading the high-risk 30yr bonds though - took 9 ticks last Friday when the report came out. At $31.25/tick, it was a Good Friday, indeed.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  cooter said:
Dunno where the energy traders hang out - try googling it, you might find a forum or two for fellow gas or oil traders.

 

Can't say I've traded any of the energies yet - I think the grains suit my overall risk/reward ratio better.

 

(Still trading the high-risk 30yr bonds though - took 9 ticks last Friday when the report came out. At $31.25/tick, it was a Good Friday, indeed.)

 

9 ticks, that's pretty nice. Do you trade the initial spike or stand aside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter
  The Bear said:
9 ticks, that's pretty nice. Do you trade the initial spike or stand aside.

 

Straddle on the initial spikes. Only 2 cars this time around, although I've done this with up to 25 cars at a clip. Major stress, though - as you can imagine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter
  The Bear said:
Grains are heavy duty...there's some big action there. What are your thoughts on Soybeans? Pullback or beginning of possible downtrend.

 

I'm rather myopic about the grains. Don't really care where it's headed after the day is over.

 

Keeps me from forming opinions about where I think the market is going, when all I really need to focus upon is where the market is taking me each day.

 

It's a subtle, but important nuance that has vastly improved my portfolio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  cooter said:
Straddle on the initial spikes. Only 2 cars this time around, although I've done this with up to 25 cars at a clip. Major stress, though - as you can imagine.

 

Ya sometimes you have to go for the throat....it's how we make the huge gains. I don't like that feeling in my stomach though, when I over leverage myself, all it would take is one freak incident and I'm a gonner...I'll be working at wendy's for the rest of my life :) I find my heart beats so rapidly at these times I can't think logically.

 

>I'm rather myopic about the grains. Don't really care where it's headed after >the day is over.

 

>Keeps me from forming opinions about where I think the market is going, when >all I really need to focus upon is where the market is taking me each day.

 

You mean it's possible to actually trade these things intra-day? I always thought ags was mostly overnight trading. Maybe I gotta check it out one day. From what I remembered I looked at the intra-day charts and they were full of gaps, holes, and mess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter
  The Bear said:

You mean it's possible to actually trade these things intra-day? I always thought ags was mostly overnight trading. Maybe I gotta check it out one day. From what I remembered I looked at the intra-day charts and they were full of gaps, holes, and mess.

 

Yep. Since this is an oil thread, I posted some screenshots of the grains over on the Volume on Ag's thread....

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f87/volume-ags-1588.html#post9549

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.