"Predict" Experiment

[onemove 10]

Hello Everyone,

 

I have created an account called "Predict" as the counterpart to the "Coin-Flip" experiment that is to be found here

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/16846-lets-try-experiment.html

 

The parameters for the "Predict" account will be the same as the "Coin-Flip" using:

1. One trade per day, Trade only EURUSD

2. 2% loss and 2% target

3. Account is USD, Leverage 1:50

4. Entry will be after market opens at 09:30 EST

5. Trade will close at 5pm EST same day

 

Except ofcourse the "Predict" account will be based on our selected predictions.

 

I need a few volunteers to provide guidance and predictions for the next day's EURUSD market. Everyone is invited to participate. Please post your predictions by noting

 

Direction, Reason,Entry Preference (if any),

 

Let'e see whether "predicting" or "random guessing" of direction gains more pips after 4 weeks.

 

The first trade will be taken on August 5th, 2013 as the "Predict" entity in the Forex Trading Contest found here

 

https://fx2.oanda.com/mod_perl/fxcontest/fxcontestadmin.pl?rm=manageContest&contestId=2795

[onemove 10]

My prediction for EURUSD for Monday is up as daily price is above the two moving averages and the stochRSI is pointing up. I would prefer to enter somewhere between 13140 to 13215ish.

Edited August 5, 2013 by onemove

[onemove 10]

Day 1:

 

Entered long at 1.3258

Exit 1.3257

-1 pip

 

Tomorrow, it still looks up.

Edited August 5, 2013 by onemove

[onemove 10]

Day 2:

 

I am not at my computer for NY open this week. My buy stop did not trigger when I got back to the computer. To make the trade happen I manually entered.

 

Open trade 11:51 EST Long @ 1.3307

Closed trade 17:05 EST @1.3303

Result for the day -4 pips

 

Total to date: -5 pips

[onemove 10]

EURUSD looks to be in consolidation in a very small range. I will look at where it wants to go in the morning to decide on direction. Anyone have any ideas?

[onemove 10]

Day 3:

 

Opened Long 9:51 EST @1.3299

Closed Trade 17:10 EST @ 1.3336

 

EURUSD is above yesterday's high. I will look for a long tomorrow.

[onemove 10]

Day 4:

 

Opened Long 09:37 EST @ 1.3363

Closed 17:00 @ 1.3378

 

I stopped tallying the pips as the +-% are found in the contest thread

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/9303-traders-laboratory-forex-trading-contest.html

 

EURUSD is now forming a double top with swing high of June. There is nothing that says it is going down. I will look and what it does with the double top in the morning. Still leaning up.

[onemove 10]

Day 5:

 

Opened Long 10:09 EST @ 1.3362

Closed 16:56 EST @1.3339

 

Closed a little before 5pm as it is Friday as I did not want to miss oanda's platform close.

 

It is looking like EURUSD might pullback a little here. Monday might have a little more pullback. I will wait and see what it does Sunday evening.

[onemove 10]

Day 6:

 

I was thinking Friday that the market would pullback more, but near NY open it appeared that EURUSD had already pulled back overnight and was at a support level, so I went long

 

Opened Long 09:35 EST @ 1.3288

Closed trade 16:55 EST @ 1.3298

 

Thinking more up tomorrow.

[onemove 10]

Day 7:

 

In the morning I saw that EURUSD had moved down overnight. It is near a support level but does not look ready to move up. My prediction yesterday was for a long. But the market state is facing down. I put in a sell order and waited. After an couple of hours it did not look like the market was going to give me a trade today. And the Coin-flip counterpart is expecting a trade every day for comparison. So seeing that the market was near a support level I took a countertrend trade.

 

Opened Long 11:58 EST @ 1.3245

Closed trade 16:40 EST @ 1.3263

 

I lucked out today. We'll see by morning if EURUSD will keep this slide down or ready to bounce up.

[onemove 10]

Day 8:

 

EURUSD at NY open looked........sideways. Inside day. Overall on the daily it still looked up, but in a pullback mode. So what to do?

 

Opened Long at 09:40 EST @ 1.3260

Closed trade 17:02 EST @ 1.3253

 

What a day! Were this a real money account I would say stay out. Tomorrow hopefully EURUSD will give a hint of where it wishes to go to next.

[onemove 10]

Day 9:

 

When I looked at EURUSD early in the morning it looked like it was in sideways consolidation after moving up. So I thought there would be continuation of the upmove and intended to go long at NY open. But right before the open there was this huge down bar with the news. What to do now? I continued with my original plan

 

Open Long 09:43 EST @1.3234

Closed trade 16:55 EST @ 1.3345

 

I have no idea what happened except that I lucked out on that trade. It was a beauty!

 

It is the kind of trade that makes one look brilliant eventhough one had nothing to do with it. LOL

 

It should have a pullback at some point and hopefully allow another long trade tomorrow.

[onemove 10]

Day 10:

 

Opened long 09:55 EST@ 1.3378

Position was at 1.3324 at the end of the day. I was 2 minutes too late to close the trade and oanda had already closed down for the day.

[onemove 10]

Day 10:

 

Opened long 09:55 EST@ 1.3378

Position was at 1.3324 at the end of the day. I was 2 minutes too late to close the trade and oanda had already closed down for the day.

 

Friday's trade closed 8/18/2013 18:39 EST @ 1.3326

[onemove 10]

Day 11:

 

Opened trade Long 11:46 EST @ 1.3348

Closed trade at 17:05 EST @ 1.3335

[onemove 10]

Day 12:

 

One of those days with other obligations and did not get to the screen until late.

 

Opened Short trade 12:36 EST @1.3424

Closed trade 16:25 EST @ 1.3422

[onemove 10]

Day 13:

 

Opened Long trade 10:02 EST @ 1.3384

Closed trade 15:25 EST @ 1.3356

[onemove 10]

Day 14:

 

Opened Short 09:58 EST @1.3340

Stopped out 10:07 EST @ 1.3371

 

Stop in this case was not 2% but a level if violated would tell me I was wrong.

[onemove 10]

Day 15:

 

Opened Long 09:39 EST @ 1.3344

Closed trade 11:03 EST @1.3396

 

The trade was not +2%, but EURUSD looked to stall and pullback. I lucked out as EURUSD closed the day at 1.3382

[onemove 10]

Day 16:

 

Opened Long at 11:00 EST @ 1.3375

Closed trade at 16:24 EST @ 1.3369

[onemove 10]

Day 17:

 

Opened Long 13:14 EST @ 1.3386

Closed trade 16:43 EST @ 1.3389

[onemove 10]

Day 18:

 

Opened Long 09:43 EST @ 1.3323

Closed trade 17:09 EST @ 1.3337

[onemove 10]

Day 19:

 

Opened Long 12:47 EST @ 1.3233

Closed trade 15:36 EST @ 1.3241

[onemove 10]

Day 20:

 

Opened Long 10:09 EST @ 1.3213

Closed trade 16:41 EST @ 1.3214

[onemove 10]

Tally for the 20 days of trading:

 

Week 1: +24 pips

Week 2: +78 pips

Week 3: -18 pips

Week 4: +20 pips

 

Total +104 pips