Some Days a Crude Oil Trader Can Be in the «ZONE»

[MichelGJulien 10]

Sometimes, on some glorious day, a trader can really have everything going for him, or be in the "zone" if you like. You know the kind of day where every decision you take is right, every analysis you make is spot on and every trade you enter or exit of is a winner? Today was one of those days for me. I wish I could reproduce them at will but, hey, you know that's not the way life works, right? So, you have to enjoy those days when they bless you with their presence and be kind on yourself when they leave you (for another trader possibly, lol).

 

Back to the WTI market now. Today was not a particularly trendy day. It was more a consolidation type of day, as is often the case (not always of course) when the market opens within the previous day's range & value area like it did this morning at 104.76. From there, boundaries were clearly marked out. To the upside, the top of my descending channel was located at 106.00. That's the potential I thought we had if we could clear the 105.30/45 resistance area. To the downside, the bottom of that channel stood at a little bit under 103.98. At the sound of the bell, the market went straigth up to test the aforementioned 105.30 resistance, stopping short of it by only a few ticks. From that level it reversed and went straigth down to the 103.98 support, exceeding it only by a few ticks. After that, the market slowly grinded back up to close pretty much at the same level it opened. For next week, I believe we could still go lower, possibly to the 102 area but before the market needs to take some altitude (maybe up to 106) to be able to make it

imho.

 

 

Even after many years, I still marvel at the accuracy and usefulness of technical analysis. How can someone trade without it is beyond me. When the market went down around 11:00 am to test the bottom of my descending channel, I jumped on the opportunity to finally get out of my short 3 August contracts position (rolled to Sept) at 104.00 for a nice gain. I could have held on to that trade a few more days and, potentially, extract more profit, but I had set today as my deadline on it no matter what. So, I've been kinda lucky, but I'll take it. In the «ZONE» I told you :-) Here are my trades for today:

 

1. Short 104.42 at 10:13, exit 104.12 at 10:31 for a +30 ticks profit

2. Short 104.39 from 2 weeks ago, exit 104.00 at 10:59 for 3 x 39 ticks = +117 ticks profit

3. Long 104.52 at 11:22, exit 104.72 at 11:31 for a +20 ticks profit. Results: +167 ticks today; +345 ticks this week.

 

For next week, I believe we could still go lower, possibly to the 102 area but before that the market needs to take some altitude (maybe up to 106) to be able to make it imho. We'll see. Have a good week-end and come back here on Monday for more.

 

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Edited July 28, 2013 by MichelGJulien