Price and Time

[tradingwizzard 10]

With this thread I would like to show you how I am incorporating time in my analysis, and, as mentioned in my other thread "Knowledge is of more value than gold" I want to explain how I end up building such charts/analysis, how to use them, and what is the starting point, or the original building block....

 

It all starts with Elliott and with the small clue he gave that time should always be incorporated when counting waves....we do have some hints about how this can be made depending on the wave price is at a certain point, but those hints are vague, to say the least (for example, the fourth and the second wave should alternate in terms of the time taken for each correction, so we know time needs to be different, we can quantify it as we have the second wave already finished by the time the fourth is underway, so we have a clue for the possible time taken for the fourth........or, when looking at contracting triangles, it should be noted that the subwaves of a leg of a contracting triangle have the tendency to travel in about equal period of times because of the x waves that usually intervene)....and these are just 2 small examples, but they are pointing to the fact that the information is relative, we do not have enough to quantify/structure/build a system based on that

 

So what I did is the following:

 

- I am using the Elliott waves in order to count the waves, doing a top/down analysis from the highest time frame (monthly) till the 1h chart;

- based on the completion of one leg, I mark the begining and the end of the wave with 2 vertical lines, and the distance between the verticals give me the time taken for the wave to form

- marking the highs and the lows gives the height, and there we go, we have our square;

- so we have the vertical, the horizontal........but how about the diagonal??

 

And here comes Gann and, like telling you on the other thread, I am obviously missing something from the whole Gann concept, but what I did understant tried to incorporate here:

 

- according to Gann there is a price and time correlation when looking at a product, in the sense that they are of equal importance, to say the least;

- in other words, to say a currency pair for example will reach a certain level, but not mentioning when it will do that, it is an incomplete forecast/information, and should be discredited;

- Gann believed each security/financial product/equity, etc, has its own way to move, and hence the concept of the 1x1 line: the line that keeps the angle of the move and it should be steeper on downside moves, as the panic effect is associated with it, and not so aggresive on the upside moves, as complacency comes into discussion;

- coming back to the square, and taking into consideration the fact that history repeats itself, I tried to replicate a mirroring effect, not in price, BUT IN TIME;

- to obtain such I divided the square into four parts, basically measuring the 50% distance price traveled and 50% of the time taken, and draw two parallel lines;

- the idea is to look for mirroring situations in the second half of the square when comparing with the first one, but looking at the time AND price;

- and this brings us to the confluence areas you are seeing there, the small grey rectangles. First I should mention that the brown and green lines are potential 1x1 lines, and regardless of the move (any wave under Elliott has a correction, so all the lines should be drawn regardless if bullish or bearish market);

- confluence areas should be looked to attract price, not to act as resistance/support - lines act like that;

- by the time you have the square, make a synopsis of it: how many confluence areas where been hit, which ones, identify support and resistance made by important lines, etc, all the information you can get, and then project the square on the right of the screen and look for similar situations, both in terms of PRICE AND TIME;

- if price exits the square, project another one, but pay attention if correction/wave is ended, and look for the same stuff as long as correction lasts. Usually corrections/waves ends at a confluence area!!!

 

Attached you have one eurjpy chart and the first square marks the end of a wave, projected on the right side, and now looking at the third square to be interpreted in relation with the second one, as correction still in place. As long as the pair is correcting, these relations should stay. When price begins a new wave, look for the first wave to offer you guidance.

 

I don't know if I managed to explain this in an easy way, but I really tried.

Any comments, questions, curiosities, are welcomed, and I promise an answer to each and every one of them.

 

Cheers.

[Patuca 13]

Analyze what you see,not what you think....(?)

Problem is what i see you may not see..what you see i may not see..we all look thru lenses..different...

[Patuca 13]

It's a "problem" you want to have if seeing what others don't see gives you an advantage.

But the context was Elliott.You have to decide if you want to look through his lense or your own.

 

No one can truely "see" as elliot sees......

 

I am a great fan of prediction....confirmation is too late....

[tradingwizzard 10]

Could you post this chart clean,without all the angles and could you post earlier chart(s) showing the previous waves so we could see waves 1-5 numbered as you see them?

Then I could download those and play around with them and post something back.I know nothing about currencies,but....I think you potentially have something here but I believe your calculations are wrong

Why? It does not look compelling...and it should if your theories are correct.Compelling for me (according to my own theories and results) means:

 

A) (and most importantly) You would avoid showing the complete theory on a public forum-that would be mad.

 

B) The prices at the top and bottom of each wave should be connected mathematically,which means each subsequent price is predictable by the previous price and from the first price (bottom(top) of wave sequence) so you have "confluence" That is the 3rd way you have confirmation of a completed wave.1st being maths 2nd being wave counts 3rd being confluence,Personally I found the answers by ditching EW theory and starting with a blank canvas.

There maybe confluence in "time" also but I have not found anything compelling.In order to arrive at something compelling one needs to be ruthless in ripping out anything that doesn't give extremely good results-otherwise we're just kidding ourselves.

To give an example of what I mean.Last week I picked 1994 at random and applied my theory to the ohlc data.I found exactly the same structure I typically find.

 

If you have maths you could lose the idea that price must appear on a dissected angle and lose your grey rectangles...

Also,with your model,a lot depends on if you've drawn the angles correctly-they'd need to be absolutely correct-always.I don't have this problem since there are no angles involved,so the problem is completely removed from the equation.

 

For example in your chart it appears to me that the bottom of W4 would connect to the top of W5 by the green angle if that angle was shifted one square to the left and so ran from the 1st vertical instead of the 2nd.

 

I also wonder if there is an inherent problem with a currency pair as opposed to a chart showing a single currency in terms of this kind of analysis.If,for example you took a currency that is correlated with the SPX you could use one to time the waves of the other.Same with the VIX.Or it might just be easier analysing one currency on a chart.

Question is based on ignorance i'm afraid since I don't know anything about currencies,but if each instrument has it's own "vibration" if you have a pair might you have conflicting vibrations?

 

Finally,for now,I challenge your premise that being unable to predict a future time when a price will appear means a theory should be discredited.

My theory is that there are 4 elements and they are all the same thing in a way.

PRICE/WAVES/MATHS/TIME

So I could express the theory thus

 

PRICE=WAVES

WAVES=TIME

TIME=MATHS

MATHS=PRICE

 

and since everything is a circle,the cycle begins again..

PRICE=WAVES

 

Time=maths is where my theory may be missing something.The end of a wave is a price and that price is predicted by maths,and when that wave ends at that price a new wave begins in the opposite direction,therefore "time is up and a change must happen"

That maybe all there is to it and it certainly works fine.But there maybe a way to calculate in advance mathematically a future turn using time units in addition to price units and wave counts.

If so,then there is one more piece in the puzzle to find and hence why i'm interested in this thread (and your prev one)

 

So,a theory does not need to be "discredited" if the case maybe that one element is missing,

 

glat to see so many questions......

 

I am taking what fits for me best out of everything......as for Elliott, I look to master corrective moves......why?....well, if price spends more than 65% of the time consolidating = correcting, and only the rest trending, then if you master corrections/consolidations you will have a competitive advantage ......

 

that being the case, I looked at Elliott theory in terms of the shapes/patterns and the habit of appearence.......and find some interesting stuff, most of it public already, and some new, for example: whenever a move ends with a contracting triangle, even if it marks a new high or low, that move is most likely corrective, so it be treated as such.........whenever you have an elongated flat, that move is almost exclusively a leg of a triangle or part of a leg of a triangle........and so on......

 

so I am looking for this kind of clues on higher time frames, and apply the principle described

 

attached you have a MONTHLY eurgbp chart to show what I mean

 

as for the eurjpy chart presented earlier, will come back to you with the requests, but it so happens it's Friday evening here and the Wizz Lady needs to be taken out....if you know what I mean

[Patuca 13]

For instance a this very moment in time i predict the ES will fall for a two point scalp..prediction made beforehand 1:26 central time USA. Price at 1681.00 target 1679.00

[Patuca 13]

This is embarassing...it only dropped to 1679.25 3 minutes later...:embarassed:

 

Well i guess only 1.5 pts profit will have to do...i must practice more and get more precise...i must be getting too old and not as quick witted??.

Edited July 26, 2013 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

I see the kite in the diagram but where is the string and tail at?

[Patuca 13]

Regardless.. Of my predictions..i can never reach the master or wizzard level on this forum..i am getting tired of trying...:rofl: :frustrated:

 

Is there another forum where i can get there faster?

[Patuca 13]

How come trading wizzard is now the founder of TL? Did he just skip the master and wizzard level? What happened to jaybird who only studied 10 minutes and jumped in?

[tradingwizzard 10]

How come trading wizzard is now the founder of TL? Did he just skip the master and wizzard level? What happened to jaybird who only studied 10 minutes and jumped in?

 

miracles of life............

[tradingwizzard 10]

Regardless.. Of my predictions..i can never reach the master or wizzard level on this forum..i am getting tired of trying...:rofl: :frustrated:

 

Is there another forum where i can get there faster?

 

I can make it happen in a blink of an eye...if you decide to chose the easy way....

 

Letting jokes aside, I would appreciate your thoughts on the topic of the thread

[Patuca 13]

I can make it happen in a blink of an eye...if you decide to chose the easy way....

 

Letting jokes aside, I would appreciate your thoughts on the topic of the thread

I will have to give that diagram some really deep serious thought..it may be beyond my intellectual abilities...mits..well it is right down his alley along with LS triple T. not sure cap Bob can get off the moon in time to take a look at it. However he may have something to add as he is a bit of a gann fan himself...

 

If i can get up the mental energy to think this deep i may give it a shot..but at the moment i am mentally drained with my famous ES trade and all....but i am known for popping back at the least expected moment just when all thought i was finished for sure....the drama...i just love it...

 

I will see what my little brain can see in the diagram..

[tradingwizzard 10]

I will have to give that diagram some really deep serious thought..it may be beyond my intellectual abilities...mits..well it is right down his alley along with LS triple T. not sure cap Bob can get off the moon in time to take a look at it. However he may have something to add as he is a bit of a gann fan himself...

 

If i can get up the mental energy to think this deep i may give it a shot..but at the moment i am mentally drained with my famous ES trade and all....but i am known for popping back at the least expected moment just when all thought i was finished for sure....the drama...i just love it...

 

I will see what my little brain can see in the diagram..

 

Looking forward to it ...

[Patuca 13]

"Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them." Shakespeare,Twelfth Night

i guess that leaves me up the creek without a paddle.....

[bobcollett 10]

Could you post this chart clean,without all the angles and could you post earlier chart(s) showing the previous waves so we could see waves 1-5 numbered as you see them?

 

 

 

Hi TW

You post very interesting things,very complicated, and hard for me to follow, and you have got that old dodder, the scalper, completely fooled.

Trying to understand how you draw your horizontal and vertical lines ....you must see the first wave ?

But how do you know when the first wave is complete..... so you must see the second wave

And on and on .As I understand it you need to see a complete 5 wave count to draw your lines for a new cycle.

We will leave the diagonals out for the moment

regards

bobc

PS I have a nice picture to send to the scalper, but my computer wont start this morning:angry: I am using my wife's computer with all these strange "facebook" icons.

Men are from Mars, women are from facebook.

I am using my wife

[tradingwizzard 10]

[quote

Question is based on ignorance i'm afraid since I don't know anything about currencies,but if each instrument has it's own "vibration" if you have a pair might you have conflicting vibrations?

 

QUOTE]

 

the pair in itself it's the instrument and it has its own vibration

[tradingwizzard 10]

Hi TW

You post very interesting things,very complicated, and hard for me to follow, and you have got that old dodder, the scalper, completely fooled.

Trying to understand how you draw your horizontal and vertical lines ....you must see the first wave ?

But how do you know when the first wave is complete..... so you must see the second wave

And on and on .As I understand it you need to see a complete 5 wave count to draw your lines for a new cycle.

We will leave the diagonals out for the moment

regards

bobc

PS I have a nice picture to send to the scalper, but my computer wont start this morning:angry: I am using my wife's computer with all these strange "facebook" icons.

Men are from Mars, women are from facebook.

I am using my wife

 

hi bob,

 

I am using Elliott mainly to identify if the move is corrective or it is trending.......for that I am looking for specific patterns, like contracting triangles that act as a reversal patterns.....meaning price is breaking into the opposide direction than the one it entered inittially....and therefore I build my lines accordingly and look for the right side of the screen

[tradingwizzard 10]

Can you give us more detail regarding the angles?Am I right in thinking your charts are not squared as Gann recommended? If so,These angles don't represent 1pt=1hour for example,so other than the fact that they are drawn through the corners of your squares,what is the logic behind them?I'm really trying to see the theory here that tells you the difference between price appearing at the intersection by coincidence/chance or because the probability of that happening is more often predictable than not?

What sort of backtesting is behind this?

 

I repeat, and please read what I wrote before carefuly.....the lines represent traditional support/resistance levels for the pair once it enters the square and stays in the corrective/trending mode........the angle should apply only when the 1x1 angle is identified (if ever) regardless on the time frame.......for example, take that angle from the monthly chart and keep in on the lower time frames and you will see the rising moves the pair made are respecting that angle....that was just an example

 

again, the confluence areas have the tendency to attract price, not for price to reverse from there.....in a corrective move based on Elliott, for example, and the best situation is happening when price is forming a contracting triangle, as legs of a triangle tend to behave in a similar mode, look for similarities between the first square and the next squares.....as long as the correction holds.....

 

then look to play only scenarios based on the corrective waves you know......you don't have to trade only one currency pair, but look for the pattern to repeat on different pairs and different time frames.......that is why you see my labelings mostly abc-s, cause I like corrections......

 

will come back with more details

[tradingwizzard 10]

this is a classical example how price and time can be incorporated in your trading analysis...using continuation patterns, like a pennant

 

pennants have the strong tendency to reach the measured move in the same time taken for the whole triangular consolidation to form.......

 

so there you go, you have the price (given by the measured move) and the time element (just measured the time taking for the triangle to form and project it by the time the upper trendline of the pennant is broken)....if the measured move is not reached in that time, it is probably not a pennant.......so basically it validates/invalidates your analysis/count/etc.

 

attached are 2 examples: one that worked perfectly, and the other one that shows a failure. For the secon one, when time expired position normally should be closed as pennant scenario is not valid anymore.

[MightyMouse 12]

this is a classical example how price and time can be incorporated in your trading analysis...using continuation patterns, like a pennant

 

pennants have the strong tendency to reach the measured move in the same time taken for the whole triangular consolidation to form.......

 

so there you go, you have the price (given by the measured move) and the time element (just measured the time taking for the triangle to form and project it by the time the upper trendline of the pennant is broken)....if the measured move is not reached in that time, it is probably not a pennant.......so basically it validates/invalidates your analysis/count/etc.

 

attached are 2 examples: one that worked perfectly, and the other one that shows a failure. For the secon one, when time expired position normally should be closed as pennant scenario is not valid anymore.

 

What is the rational for a relationship between the pennant time and the time of the subsequent move? Is this time relationship common in the plant or animal world?

 

Does the time that a herd of caribou takes waiting to cross a river equal the time the herd takes to cross the river?

[tradingwizzard 10]

What is the rational for a relationship between the pennant time and the time of the subsequent move? Is this time relationship common in the plant or animal world?

 

Does the time that a herd of caribou takes waiting to cross a river equal the time the herd takes to cross the river?

 

really now...is this an answer?....human nature never stops amazing me

[tradingwizzard 10]

Wiz- Mouse didn't give an answer..it was a question.Seems a perfectly logical one.Let's try again since you always seem to make these statements but appear exasperated when challenged to back them up with....anything

 

So..What is the rational for a relationship between the pennant time and the time of the subsequent move?

 

What is your answer to that question?

 

You have stated that EW perfectly describes human behaviour within markets.I like that idea as a theory.Here again,you did not really give us much to go on other than you believe it to be true.

 

"human nature never stops amazing me"

I would say that while human behaviour may be amazing it is quite predictable (it had better be or your theory regarding EW....is screwed).

I would also venture that it may be mathematically predictable to a certain degree.

Now how that relates to what mouse said:

 

Does the time that a herd of caribou takes waiting to cross a river equal the time the herd takes to cross the river?

 

It may seem facetious to you but...

 

In the real world things have a life cycle that can be predicted.In the real world things grow mathematically in a predictable way.Take a look at a tree,Starting with the trunk each section divides into 2,and those branches in turn divide into 2 until it reaches it's predictable maximum size and lives until it dies at a mathematically predictable time.And I bet if we could be bothered,if not now,but some time in the future,we could predict that death to within a few minutes.

 

Now,how can we apply these universal laws and concepts we see in the real world to the human interaction?

And,as a moderator no less,i would be hoping for something beyond:really now...is this an answer?....human nature never stops amazing me

It doesn't really motivate those here that believe the market operates on nothing much beyond the mundane concept of supply/demand and greed/fear.

 

So if it were me presenting these ideas,which I happen to like actually,i would be basing my research on the supposition that the pennant (which is merely a pattern description of a price formation that only appears due to the way price is depicted on the chart) is actually a representation of what is actually going on within this time period.

So I would ask myself is there a typical period of time that big money spends accumulating/removing supply? (on a daily chart a certain amount of time/on a 5m chart a certain amount of time)

If so then the pennant would only be one visual depiction of that accumulation.They could accumulate within other patterns also.Yet another avenue to explore as to why the same act of accumulation would produce different patterns...

 

Now to the measured move part.With no explanation as to why a measured move should happen you present something that appears random In fact your 2 examples reinforce the idea that it is random since in one example the anticipated move happens,and in the 2nd example it doesn't...random

If you had some logical theory behind this you would be able to demonstrate why one example worked and why the other did not work.But first you would need to explain why a move of a certain size should be expected,and why it should equal the time the pennant took to form.

If you find that peer review is tiresome and sucks then it's pointless posting this stuff because you obviously don't value or need our opinion.

If not,maybe you should address the issues and questions raised here.

Just saying.............

 

really now...is that difficult?....really?.....any continuation pattern has a measured move......just that pennants allow us to incorporate time....if measured move is not reached in that specific time, EXIT the trade, as it is not a continuation pattern.....

 

and instead writing long story short about what it is, what is not or what it should be, maybe you should just keep it as you like it and as I tried to put it.....SIMPLE

 

TW

[MightyMouse 12]

really now...is that difficult?....really?.....any continuation pattern has a measured move......just that pennants allow us to incorporate time....if measured move is not reached in that specific time, EXIT the trade, as it is not a continuation pattern.....

 

and instead writing long story short about what it is, what is not or what it should be, maybe you should just keep it as you like it and as I tried to put it.....SIMPLE

 

TW

 

The reason for the move, then, could be mystical or maybe even magical for all you care. As long as it works sometimes it makes no difference if the reason is rational or not.

[SILVER 10]

I dont know about pennants and such,but from the working example it looks like what you measure as first measured move is an instance of price cycle running earlier than time cycle,hence your pennant has to form to "kill" time.Having killed time price then explodes again.This looks pretty symmetrical so the math should be something like after 10% of the time it already had reached 40%to50% percent of price.So time had to catch up.

 

The failed pennant looks way more equal in terms of price and time,actually your first measured move there could be price catching up with time.Based on that the failing pennant might have been foreseeable as there may not have been enough time left.

 

In general I must say I find the "pennant idea" problematical based on time elapsed to "craft" the pennant.This is actually just a slice of time the swing will be based on and from the glance,no study mind you,I might think this "Pennant idea" would work only on specific situations.

[tradingwizzard 10]

I dont know about pennants and such,but from the working example it looks like what you measure as first measured move is an instance of price cycle running earlier than time cycle,hence your pennant has to form to "kill" time.Having killed time price then explodes again.This looks pretty symmetrical so the math should be something like after 10% of the time it already had reached 40%to50% percent of price.So time had to catch up.

 

The failed pennant looks way more equal in terms of price and time,actually your first measured move there could be price catching up with time.Based on that the failing pennant might have been foreseeable as there may not have been enough time left.

 

In general I must say I find the "pennant idea" problematical based on time elapsed to "craft" the pennant.This is actually just a slice of time the swing will be based on and from the glance,no study mind you,I might think this "Pennant idea" would work only on specific situations.

 

now this is what I call a pertinent answer....thank you