Knowledge is of more value than gold

[tradingwizzard 10]

KNOWLEDGE IS OF MORE VALUE THAN GOLD

I'm sure many of you are familiar with the works of H.D. Gann. Personally I am a true admirer of both his work and legacy. No other trading style and/or forecasting method knows so much attention and secrecy as that of Gann. His true legacy is, in my opinion, the knowledge that, one way or the other, he managed to pass for the next generations to build on his works. He himself has reiterated the famous King's Solomon words “Knowledge is of more value than gold”.

For Gann, everything was a number. He was a master of cycle analysis. So here's what I did: I took EUR/USD since the beginning (1971) and looked for a broker that offer that kind of historical information. Than I studied each cycle in terms of length and, attention, astrology (yes, I know, it sounds a little bit mystic but believe me it's not). From an astrology point of view I just wanted to see if the exact day the eur/usd turned has any meaning regarding full moon/new moon correlation. Surprisingly, it does. (see the first attachement for the chart)

Next, I used Gann Square of Nine for dividing each cycle and to see what degree goes with each cycle. Extrapolating the results into the future, I came to a conclusion that you'll see by reading this article.

Here's what I found:

- almost all of the trend changes happened exactly (or almost exactly) during a full moon/new moon;

- each period contains an odd number of “mini” periods (7, 1, 5, 5, 3);

Now, based on the table below (see the Excel table attached), and also based on Gann's believe that history repeats itself, I invite you to use your imagination and complete the Excel table with your own opinion.

For encouraging, here's my opinion:

- taking into consideration there up until this last cycle there where 5 cycles (up, down, up, down, up), it is naturally to believe the next one will be down, and started with the maximum quotation in 2008;

- the smallest cycle down was 1854 days – so we can take an educated guess and assume that this down cycle will go for at least 1854 days;

- if we take a look at the Square of Nine, there is a particular thing that happened: the 1st trend down closed around 250-270 degrees, and the 2nd down trend closed around 180-210 degrees – now, keeping the proportions, it is only fair to assume that this down cycle we are currently in could have and end around 110-150 degrees (this corresponding in value for the Eur/Usd pair with 1.08-1.09);

- moreover, keeping the same assumptions, we can assume it will end with an inverted head and shoulders;

- it will definitely be around a full moon;

- it will be formed by an odd number of “mini-cycles”.

In conclusion, my call will be 1.08-1.09 for Eur/Usd, almost 1 year from now (2014), a trend that ends around a full moon, after an odd number of mini-cycles, and with an inverted head and shoulders.

What's yours?

Gann approach.xls

[MightyMouse 12]

KNOWLEDGE IS OF MORE VALUE THAN GOLD

I'm sure many of you are familiar with the works of H.D. Gann. Personally I am a true admirer of both his work and legacy. No other trading style and/or forecasting method knows so much attention and secrecy as that of Gann. His true legacy is, in my opinion, the knowledge that, one way or the other, he managed to pass for the next generations to build on his works. He himself has reiterated the famous King's Solomon words “Knowledge is of more value than gold”.

For Gann, everything was a number. He was a master of cycle analysis. So here's what I did: I took EUR/USD since the beginning (1971) and looked for a broker that offer that kind of historical information. Than I studied each cycle in terms of length and, attention, astrology (yes, I know, it sounds a little bit mystic but believe me it's not). From an astrology point of view I just wanted to see if the exact day the eur/usd turned has any meaning regarding full moon/new moon correlation. Surprisingly, it does. (see the first attachement for the chart)

Next, I used Gann Square of Nine for dividing each cycle and to see what degree goes with each cycle. Extrapolating the results into the future, I came to a conclusion that you'll see by reading this article.

Here's what I found:

- almost all of the trend changes happened exactly (or almost exactly) during a full moon/new moon;

- each period contains an odd number of “mini” periods (7, 1, 5, 5, 3);

Now, based on the table below (see the Excel table attached), and also based on Gann's believe that history repeats itself, I invite you to use your imagination and complete the Excel table with your own opinion.

For encouraging, here's my opinion:

- taking into consideration there up until this last cycle there where 5 cycles (up, down, up, down, up), it is naturally to believe the next one will be down, and started with the maximum quotation in 2008;

- the smallest cycle down was 1854 days – so we can take an educated guess and assume that this down cycle will go for at least 1854 days;

- if we take a look at the Square of Nine, there is a particular thing that happened: the 1st trend down closed around 250-270 degrees, and the 2nd down trend closed around 180-210 degrees – now, keeping the proportions, it is only fair to assume that this down cycle we are currently in could have and end around 110-150 degrees (this corresponding in value for the Eur/Usd pair with 1.08-1.09);

- moreover, keeping the same assumptions, we can assume it will end with an inverted head and shoulders;

- it will definitely be around a full moon;

- it will be formed by an odd number of “mini-cycles”.

In conclusion, my call will be 1.08-1.09 for Eur/Usd, almost 1 year from now (2014), a trend that ends around a full moon, after an odd number of mini-cycles, and with an inverted head and shoulders.

What's yours?

 

The euro's grandfather began life in 1975. The euro came about at the beginning of 1999. Your broker is mistaken. Not a good sign.

 

I thought the euro would already have been to the level you are predicting, but it hasn't. Everyone is doing QE and the result is a stalemate and EUR/USD of between 120-135. We'll need a significant worsening of the debt crisis in the ECU or a surprise.

 

Frustration at its best. But, one can surely make good money in a 15 cent range.

[tradingwizzard 10]

70's are considered by that broker too, so not missing anything on that part......well, in trading never say never.....still one year to go......

[bobcollett 10]

Hi Tradingwizzard,

You have posted an interesting topic......Lunar Trading.

You wont get many replies because Astro is a swear word , but I'd like to comment.

 

Firstly Lunar Trading is based on the gravitational effects of the Moon + the SUN

The fact that you cant see the Moon ,doesnt mean there is no effect. Its still there.

But when the Moon and the Sun are on the same side of the Earth, New Moon, there is obviously more "pull", than when the Moon and the Sun are on opposite sides of the earth, Full Moon. (Likewise, if you have the Sun, Moon, Mars, Jupiter, and Venus, all on the same side, conjunction, you will get pulled off your feet.)

So the more "pull" the stronger the market.The market will rise into the New Moon and fall into the Full Moon.

I wont discuss all the problems with this method, but of prime importance is that it works better with BIG markets.... the indexes..I dont get much success trading individual stocks.

 

Now you have probably noticed from my comments,your analysis is the opposite of the above.

You suggest the Euro will fall at full moon.Thats easy to explain.You are trading a pair and the $ is the bigger market. Its the one that falls at New Moon and rises at Full Moon, and your Euro is the other side of the trade.So you analysis is still correct.Just upside down.

But you also have some TURNS at the wrong Moon phase.

Thats called inversion. The market does the opposite of the theory, and it happens about three times a year.I can live with that. Right 9 times out of 12 is a winning system.

 

Now having been rather pedantic because I dont want new traders to get the wrong idea,I think your GANN Theory is great.And your prediction of the value of the Euro make sense.

The $/euro should be at PAR , and with all the problems in Europe that are not resolved (now Portugal), its going to happen.

I would welcome mitsubishis views on GANN.He says hes not an expert but hes 10 times better than me.

kind regards

bobc

[tradingwizzard 10]

Hi Tradingwizzard,

You have posted an interesting topic......Lunar Trading.

You wont get many replies because Astro is a swear word , but I'd like to comment.

 

Firstly Lunar Trading is based on the gravitational effects of the Moon + the SUN

The fact that you cant see the Moon ,doesnt mean there is no effect. Its still there.

But when the Moon and the Sun are on the same side of the Earth, New Moon, there is obviously more "pull", than when the Moon and the Sun are on opposite sides of the earth, Full Moon. (Likewise, if you have the Sun, Moon, Mars, Jupiter, and Venus, all on the same side, conjunction, you will get pulled off your feet.)

So the more "pull" the stronger the market.The market will rise into the New Moon and fall into the Full Moon.

I wont discuss all the problems with this method, but of prime importance is that it works better with BIG markets.... the indexes..I dont get much success trading individual stocks.

 

Now you have probably noticed from my comments,your analysis is the opposite of the above.

You suggest the Euro will fall at full moon.Thats easy to explain.You are trading a pair and the $ is the bigger market. Its the one that falls at New Moon and rises at Full Moon, and your Euro is the other side of the trade.So you analysis is still correct.Just upside down.

But you also have some TURNS at the wrong Moon phase.

Thats called inversion. The market does the opposite of the theory, and it happens about three times a year.I can live with that. Right 9 times out of 12 is a winning system.

 

Now having been rather pedantic because I dont want new traders to get the wrong idea,I think your GANN Theory is great.And your prediction of the value of the Euro make sense.

The $/euro should be at PAR , and with all the problems in Europe that are not resolved (now Portugal), its going to happen.

I would welcome mitsubishis views on GANN.He says hes not an expert but hes 10 times better than me.

kind regards

bobc

 

the whole idea to begin with was related to the fact that human behaviour is affected by the moon phase.....well, if markets are a sum of human behaviours, why not trying to find some sort of a connection between the twol......as it turned out, I am not the only one looking at this field as doing my research I found this to be an area of interest since long time ago.......and that lead me to Gann, whose works are as good as they are controversial

[tradingwizzard 10]

Very interesting Bob/wiz.Any chance you could post a chart showing several moons?

I'm not sure why you think i'm better at this than you Bob,this is really not my thing at all.

But I will admit,that you often get turns near full/new moons.

That could be a problem since there could be a big change in price allowing for some leeway which you inevitably must do.For example if the moon should fall on a weekend.

In my pseudoscience thread I was looking at the New York barometer readings hoping it would give trading signals to make a point that strange theories can work.Thing is it looked quite convincing to a certain extent

 

.A lot of things I've posted over the years seem to be mis-perceived (?) as things that I actually use to trade which is not the case at all.Though I do admit I have been down some very strange rabbit holes in my journey.However it all lead somewhere in the end so I guess it wasn't a waste of time.

 

So with that history in mind I would not say to anyone that what they personally use is crazy or won't work.Just for me I settled on wave counts,maths and horizontal lines.Those 3 elements pretty much describe the market structure/cycles for me.

 

As for Gann I never really understood the material,but his ideas did lead me to find something for myself,for he said price and time is the same thing.

 

Perception

 

"Price and time is the same thing".

This is my conclusion after a lot of study and ah ha moments...

 

What are waves?

Cycles and...Price

What is at the bottom of a wave?..price

Top of a wave?... price

What happens when a wave ends?...a new wave in the opposite direction begins.

 

So if waves are price,when a top is in place (a wave ends) "a change must happen"

 

In short a wave ending= TIME ("time is up and a change must happen")

A wave ends at a PRICE

 

Therefore PRICE and TIME are the same thing when a WAVE ends.

 

Gann has you attempting to predict the exact price and time at which a market must turn.

And you must use the Gann wheel or other tool to do this.

I have not found that.

What I find is the market is waves/maths/horizontal lines

It is possible to identify future prices with maths and horizontal lines and quantify wave counts (personally I don't use EW) These can coincide to produce predictable possible tops and bottoms (waves). After a very long period of research I have an alternative theory to Gann.

 

And I believe the alternative is not PRICE=TIME = 1 unit.

I haven't found that you can convert a price into a predictable future time of a turn.

Nor have I found the opposite ie to convert a time into a future price.

 

But Gann did start me thinking along those lines so my own theory owes something to his ideas.

As I often say..."Beyond"

 

thanks for your point of view......yes, PRICE and TIME..........I personally did not understand how to use the "wheel of fortune" as sometimes the Gann wheel is called......I mean I understand the concept, not the utility, so obviously I am missing something there.......the only way I can connect time with price is in specific situations using Elliott Waves analysis (for example in the case of wedges, ending diagonals, where you have the 1-3 trendline that usually needs to be pierced but the length of the fifth wave should be smaller than the third one......and there you go, you have a maximum value for PRICE and a maximum value for TIME as usually fifth wave is shorter in time than the third one as well........so measure the third, both in price and time, and apply the outcome to the fifth)....however, as with many things related to Elliott, words like usually, most likely, etc, are all over the place and this is a drawdown from my point of view

 

Gann is different........what I do found interesting to use in the day to day trading, was the 1x1 concept he refers to all the time......that being the way a certain security/financial product, etc is moving........according to Gann, there is an angle that a financial product (let's say the eurusd pair) keeps all the time when it is rising (so in a bull trend) and a totally different one when it is falling (in a bear market).........and this angle holds true all the time, being steeper in falling markets (because of the panic effect that comes along) and not that aggresive in bullish market (complacency being the reason)

[tradingwizzard 10]

I have found a chart here where i was testing the moon and other esoteric ideas intended for the pseudoscience thread and it appears to back up Bob's statement that full moons usually are near lows/new moons near highs.

There is a full moon tonight so i guess you're looking for a possible inversion here Bob? since the market is at an all time high.

 

quick questions Mits on the chart:

 

1. why vibration 55

2. why cycle 52

[SIUYA 11]

is your new moon the same as my new moon?

[Guest OILFXPRO]

Knowledge is useless without phsyche , as is a fanny to a masturbator..

[tradingwizzard 10]

is your new moon the same as my new moon?

 

it may be honeymoon

[tradingwizzard 10]

Just was trying to invent some pseudoscience that would appear compelling at first glance,loosely based on "accepted" ideas (by some) in order to demonstrate that we are easily fooled by patterns.

So,in this case 55 is a fib number.The idea was to take the prev year closing price and add multiples of 55,then draw horizontal lines on the chart and see if price appeared to find support/resistance at those prices.I did quite a few historical charts this way including R2K.In the case of that index I found 55 really didn't even pass the pseudoscience test.Naturally,in the interests of science, I tried 34 instead.Strange thing was 34 appeared to work better on this index.And I was also thinking Gann- every instrument has it's own vibration.But typically,in my cackhanded application of his ideas,rather than fully understand the man's theories (does anyone?) I just ran with the strapline.

The fact that R2K appeared to work better with 34 helped demonstrate my point-pseudoscience (i'll dig the chart out if I still have it)

 

The 52hr cycle was based on multiples of trading hours (6.5) for cash market.Theory being traders have a limited time to get trades done,and it might have tied in with the Taylor B/S/SS cycle idea.Here again,looking at the chart when a cycle ends exactly at the moon it looks uncanny.Doesn't happen anywhere near enough times to be compelling and the odd exceptions do anything but prove the rule- again pseudoscience.

 

However all these kind of esoteric ideas,though they lead nowhere they touch on your point about human behaviour and I wonder if it can be quantified mathematically to any degree?

If anyone has some thoughts/links in that area,please bring them to the thread (hope i'm not too off topic here and thanks to wiz for starting this one)

 

no, I don't really think anyone understands it (the theory) completely........there is a saying (legend) going on that the book written "Tunnel Thru the Air" is something like a code puzzle for his works, basically his way to leave the legacy behind.....if you ask me, this is more likely watching The DaVinci code in which Tom Hanks solves all kinds of puzzles.......not the case here, if only for a good movie scenario.......now seriously, and I am repeating myself, I did some research some time ago based on the fact that the 1x1 line should keep the same angle and tried to keep the same line/angle on all time frames for finding possible support and resistance areas (the concept of true trendline, when you are supposed to wait for another swing higher/lower really helped here) and based on the monthly chart analsys, I tried to copy the lines and apply the angle to any impulsive/corrective move I had based on my Elliott waves counting.....then what I did, I backtested the angle,line and it seemed to work really nice....the whole system was being based on the true trendline concept and then just adding parallel lines to the original true trendline....the consequence was that, inevitably, you will end up with a sort of Gann grid, but it is like a homemade one, when you know the principle about how to make it....I will try to dig for the chart, if not, will reproduce one to post it here.....it was on eurusd as well.....

 

as for your answer with the 55, you said it's a Fib number.....which Fib?....

 

and I have to admit that I do make a difference between horizontal lines (less important as they only show previous support/resistance areas) and dynamic support/resistance lines (that take into consideration the angle of the move.......but not saying I am right, just wanting to see the difference......

[Mysticforex 13]

is your new moon the same as my new moon?

 

 

Just to answer YOUR question Siuya, yes

 

I think you live in London UK, so your next "New Moon" is Aug. 6th @22:51 GMT

My next "New Moon" in NYC is @17:51 GMT-5

[bobcollett 10]

I have found a chart here where i was testing the moon and other esoteric ideas intended for the pseudoscience thread and it appears to back up Bob's statement that full moons usually are near lows/new moons near highs.

There is a full moon tonight so i guess you're looking for a possible inversion here Bob? since the market is at an all time high.

 

Hi mitsubishi

Today 23rd is Full Moon

The theory goes that the Lunar Red period (weakness ) lasts for about 3 days past Full Moon,

So there could still be a down day

But I accept an inversion, and thats good news ,because there is more strength in the market as we change to New moon.... new highs coming.

regards

bobc

[tradingwizzard 10]

1.3.5.8.13.21.34.55....

 

my bad, my bad........thought it was a number based on a Fib retracement or something....and was thinking about the percentage

[tradingwizzard 10]

Hi mitsubishi

Today 23rd is Full Moon

The theory goes that the Lunar Red period (weakness ) lasts for about 3 days past Full Moon,

So there could still be a down day

But I accept an inversion, and thats good news ,because there is more strength in the market as we change to New moon.... new highs coming.

regards

bobc

 

now that should be interesting to see

[wmck6167 10]

This theory is great. But sometimes I may forget to watch the moon changing since I am too busy to work on the market. I am just thinking an indirect method to work on it, you can call it a derivative method. Since it is related to gravity interaction, I am thinking using a bouncing ball to correlate this relationship. Every morning, before the market open, I bounce the ball to measure the height in order to let me notice the influence(it's very important). I can work on excel to see the curve and I can even put the first derivate to see more sensitive change. Is it a good idea? I believe that you may have better ways than mine. Cheers to the moon.

[tradingwizzard 10]

This theory is great. But sometimes I may forget to watch the moon changing since I am too busy to work on the market. I am just thinking an indirect method to work on it, you can call it a derivative method. Since it is related to gravity interaction, I am thinking using a bouncing ball to correlate this relationship. Every morning, before the market open, I bounce the ball to measure the height in order to let me notice the influence(it's very important). I can work on excel to see the curve and I can even put the first derivate to see more sensitive change. Is it a good idea? I believe that you may have better ways than mine. Cheers to the moon.

 

don't really know what to do with the post above........:crap:

[tradingwizzard 10]

Ideas so far on the mathematics of human behaviour (sounds like a good title for a book) and all based on TIME - theory is it's 4/multiples of 4

 

Birth/childhood/adulthood/death

 

Eat- every 4 hours

Sleep- 8 hours

work- 8 hours

 

Moon- 4 phases

seasons 4

months 12

(weeks) 4

 

Leap year 4 years

 

Leap year - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

if year is divisible by 400 then

is_leap_year

else if year is divisible by 100 then

not_leap_year

else if year is divisible by 4 then

is_leap_year

else

not_leap_year

 

 

most years that are integer multiples of 4 are leap years

 

Feb- 28 days (except leap years)

 

Trading/multiple of 4-

Did do a test a long time back that showed ave weekly H to L was 4 days and across several weeks/months multiples of 4.....

 

Ave trading days per month-20

That's all so far......

 

I used to have a system (still use it, actually, but not on the same degree) that was derived on Gann's square.....the thing is that I took the highs and the lows from an actual wave (based on Elliott), added the horizontal and resulted a square....regardless of the time frame and the currency pair (told you I am trading mainly currencies)........the main subdivisions were....you guess, 4.......maybe I will start a theard based on that and show how to make that kind of square I am using..

 

as for the numbers.....let me re-read your post a couple of times more

[bobcollett 10]

Ideas so far on the mathematics of human behaviour (sounds like a good title for a book) and all based on TIME - theory is it's 4/multiples of 4

 

Birth/childhood/adulthood/death

 

Eat- every 4 hours

Sleep- 8 hours

work- 8 hours

 

Moon- 4 phases

seasons 4

months 12

(weeks) 4

 

Leap year 4 years

 

Leap year - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

if year is divisible by 400 then

is_leap_year

else if year is divisible by 100 then

not_leap_year

else if year is divisible by 4 then

is_leap_year

else

not_leap_year

 

 

most years that are integer multiples of 4 are leap years

 

Feb- 28 days (except leap years)

 

Trading/multiple of 4-

Did do a test a long time back that showed ave weekly H to L was 4 days and across several weeks/months multiples of 4.....

 

Ave trading days per month-20

That's all so far......

 

Hi mitsubishi

Interesting synopsis....4 is the magic number

I actually think 7 is the magic number , but please give me a few days to think about 4

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

This theory is great. But sometimes I may forget to watch the moon changing since I am too busy to work on the market. I am just thinking an indirect method to work on it, you can call it a derivative method. Since it is related to gravity interaction, I am thinking using a bouncing ball to correlate this relationship. Every morning, before the market open, I bounce the ball to measure the height in order to let me notice the influence(it's very important). I can work on excel to see the curve and I can even put the first derivate to see more sensitive change. Is it a good idea? I believe that you may have better ways than mine. Cheers to the moon.

 

Hi wmck6167

Strarnge name. What does it stand for?

I see you have been quite active on the"Help me become a millionare" thread :haha: :haha:

Maybe you should pay attention on this thread :missy:

kind regards

bobc

[tradingwizzard 10]

ok guys, thank you for your contributions to the topic, time to make a synopsis....or to draw a small conclusion after a milestone (price and time to discuss) has been reached":

 

- so we have one financial product (currency pair, indices, whatever...) and we look on the bigger time frames (monthly, weekly charts) how this product is/is not influenced by the shiftings in moon cycles - if these cycles influence human behaviour, and markets are a sum of human behaviours, then we are looking for clues/hints/ideas to connect the two, in terms of finding a mathematical/logical/esotheric/fantastic/new/strange/absurd.and you may continue.....connection between the two/or three, depending how you interpret it;

 

- then we have the "history repeats itself", and if past events are a clue, or are offering an educated guess about future price action, then we are looking for Gann to offer us clues for such a possibility....so any discussion related Gann is welcomed on this thread too;

 

- and third, but not least, welcoming new ideas.....the one with the 4 numbers I find it intriguing to say the least......looking for bobcollet to see what the heck 7 would mean.......so lot's to think of....

[tradingwizzard 10]

attached is a chart showing you how I use the price and time in relation with Elliott waves.......basically taking the time of a correction (in this case the leg of a triangle), projecting in on the right side, and looking for conflunce areas in price and time to be touched on the right side based on the touching points obtained from the left (original) square......will open a new thread this week in which I will explain how to build such a square and how to use it

[wmck6167 10]

Hi wmck6167

Strarnge name. What does it stand for?

I see you have been quite active on the"Help me become a millionare" thread :haha: :haha:

Maybe you should pay attention on this thread :missy:

kind regards

bobc

 

Hi, WMCK is a family code, meaning behind the code is "we are all guests in our life", 6167 is "wish you prosperous". I am not good at market analysis, but I like to make some friends here. Cheers.

[bobcollett 10]

attached is a chart showing you how I use the price and time in relation with Elliott waves.......basically taking the time of a correction (in this case the leg of a triangle), projecting in on the right side, and looking for conflunce areas in price and time to be touched on the right side based on the touching points obtained from the left (original) square......will open a new thread this week in which I will explain how to build such a square and how to use it

Hi tradingwizzard,

You have to be a real wizkid to understand this :confused:

regards

bobc

PS mitsubishi . Do you understand this? Or am I just a slow learner?

[bobcollett 10]

Your pyramid shape triangles and the idea behind them are very familiar...wouldn't you say Bob? It looks like wiz here has just pulled an old rabbit outta "Beyond Gann" hat.

You really are a wizard.Quite a feat converting your handle to green:shocked:

Can you lay on a jaw dropping emoticon because mine is beginning to ache now-should be a cinch with your newly revealed powers...

 

I'm completely subscribed to your planned thread..... have I entered some kind of parallel universe?

 

Hi TW

You see , when I suggested mitsubishi comment, I knew there would be more than one page . You owe me.

And you can see how excited he is.:roll eyes:

If you have time , perhaps go and read "Beyond Gann" :missy:

You can also see that there is not a big readership of Gann Theory from the few comments.

Thats life

 

Now for for the million dollar question

Do you trade with your theory?

What market?

kind regards

bobc