Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Gekko78

True Genius Resides in Simplicity

Recommended Posts

  Gekko78 said:
I agree with you here. This thread had nothing to do with and strategy actually , it kind of morphed that way. I mentioned something about it but that was it just a mention. By no means am I stating that I figured anything out , in fact I figured out nothing someone showed me something. I take credit for nothing.

 

I also have never made any claims that I am making great money. I said I am making what I need to make. That number will be different for everyone.

 

I also agree with you about methods working differently for everyone. In fact as I was reading your post about your friend and the coding I was immediately turned off because of the word coding. I follow price and that's it so that method probably would not work for me even though it works great for him.

 

Every person is different and their emotional reactions will be different to every situation , that is why the trader told me this about systems: " People are always trying to quantify the market , it cannot be done. You cannot quantify human emotions. Decisions are not black and white. Decisions fall in the grey area. Black and white can be quantified but grey cannot"

 

Ya, no system will be able to supercede the "user" using it. There is an ebb and flow to movement that tests the very fabric of patience and trust ..... especially in this day and age with algo's doing 85% of the yearly trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Omg… you did it again! ...these little truisms and traps you're spurtin are unintentionally misleading!

  Quote
Black and white can be quantified but grey cannot

Grey must be ‘quantified’ in wetware (where there’s quite high proficiency in humanoids -maybe too high, especially for traders) or in code (where the ‘proficiency’ is significantly more challenging)

They call it ‘fuzzy logic’... and we 'do it' -quantify the grey - all the time

 

Hope that ultimately you’re not taking my reactions personally... they are for other readers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Gekko78 said:
I am still here because I keep getting emails about this post so I will continue to post on here until others stop.

 

Alright, cutting myself loose from the thread. I've said all I wanted. Really, best of good fortune to you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zdo said:
Omg… you did it again! ...these little truisms and traps you're spurtin are unintentionally misleading!

 

Grey must be ‘quantified’ in wetware (where there’s quite high proficiency in humanoids) or in code (where the ‘proficiency’ is significantly more challenging)

They call it ‘fuzzy logic’...

 

Hope that ultimately you’re not taking my reactions personally... they are for other readers

 

I do not take anything personally , I don't know you.

 

You keep thinking you can quantify human emotions. The Black/Scholes guys could not do it and I believe they were pretty smart guys. But hey maybe you can do it. Maybe you will be the guy who can use math to tell you what I am thinking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Gekko78 said:
... I don't know you.

 

You keep thinking you can quantify human emotions. .

 

you don't know me, but you think I think I can quantify human "emotions"... ??

that quite a jump... on all sorts of levels...

 

will PM you when you're 'right' ... ;) jk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Gekko78 said:
What if the method is not complex? What if it is a simple as buy here , sell here done. what then?

 

 

That is simple.....

.....how do you then quantify the price levels?

What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen?

How do you scale it?

What happens if x,y,z happens?

what happens if a string of losses occur?

what happens if the regime/market mood changes?

 

.....it all sounds like its a system that the orders are given to you....

Just be careful of these systems.:2c:

 

There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye.....and quantifying everything is usually the stopper.....

possibly why most cant really share what they do (not because they are not happy to) - and why there is the debate about intuition etc.

 

IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up.

 

whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down. :)

 

...............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  SIUYA said:
That is simple.....

.....how do you then quantify the price levels?

What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen?

How do you scale it?

What happens if x,y,z happens?

what happens if a string of losses occur?

what happens if the regime/market mood changes?

 

.....it all sounds like its a system that the orders are given to you....

Just be careful of these systems.:2c:

 

There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye.....and quantifying everything is usually the stopper.....

possibly why most cant really share what they do (not because they are not happy to) - and why there is the debate about intuition etc.

 

IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up.

 

whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down. :)

 

...............

 

Using that logic then everything could be considered a system. Throwing darts at a board randomly can be considered a system.

 

No there is no complexity with it.

 

What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen? Well I never think the market "should" do anything . If I get in and it goes south my stop gets hit and I am out .....done move on to the next one.

 

What happens if x,y,z happens? What if it does? What if Venus crosses the center of the Milky way when price hits my target? The trade either works out or it doesn't

 

what happens if a string of losses occur? Then a string of losses occur. Big deal. I have already looked at a few years of data to see how it played out and it looks fine to me.The problem with many traders is that because there method fails a few times they give up. Not a good idea.

what happens if the regime/market mood changes? That's an emotional game which I do not play. That stuff does not matter to me. The trade will either present itself or not. Market mood does not concern me.

There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye No, actually there is not . People tend to complicate things are are quite simple.

 

IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up. Guess we will find out. I highly doubt it though as the same strategy has been used by by floor traders for decades ( according to him)

 

whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down. :) Maybe you should try this out and see. I would be willing to wager that it probably would produce pretty good results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Gekko78 said:
Using that logic then everything could be considered a system. Throwing darts at a board randomly can be considered a system.

 

No there is no complexity with it.

 

What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen? Well I never think the market "should" do anything . If I get in and it goes south my stop gets hit and I am out .....done move on to the next one.

 

What happens if x,y,z happens? What if it does? What if Venus crosses the center of the Milky way when price hits my target? The trade either works out or it doesn't

 

what happens if a string of losses occur? Then a string of losses occur. Big deal. I have already looked at a few years of data to see how it played out and it looks fine to me.The problem with many traders is that because there method fails a few times they give up. Not a good idea.

what happens if the regime/market mood changes? That's an emotional game which I do not play. That stuff does not matter to me. The trade will either present itself or not. Market mood does not concern me.

There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye No, actually there is not . People tend to complicate things are are quite simple.

 

IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up. Guess we will find out. I highly doubt it though as the same strategy has been used by by floor traders for decades ( according to him)

 

whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down. :) Maybe you should try this out and see. I would be willing to wager that it probably would produce pretty good results.

 

you do realise that in answering these questions it has made the simple system more complex.... :) ....just by the nature of it being a strategy with tactics means it has some complexity....

 

and for you to have tested it by looking at a few years of data means that there is a system to it......in other words its not just random longs or shorts with random stops.....

 

Most systems are incredibly simple - and it always amazes me that a simple system can often enter at similar levels or have similar PL returns as a very complex one. (win or loose)...hence you may as well keep it simple

 

I think you do make a good distinction.....Your reactions to the system or the series of trades does not need to be any more complicated than it should be.....and that definitely has value. (Some may disagree here but hey thats a forum :))

Edited by SIUYA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

True genius resides ............ on a different thread than this. :doh:

 

But didn't believe the day would come when I would actually understand and agree with much of what zdo has posted.

 

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  SunTrader said:
True genius resides ............ on a different thread than this. :doh:

 

But didn't believe the day would come when I would actually understand and agree with much of what zdo has posted.

 

:)

 

Glad I could help you mend a relationship. This thread is now successful.

200px-Heneryhawk.jpg.e3a15a372fb17a82668c066aa1398fa0.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  SunTrader said:
Two words that don't apply when describing trading: Always and Never.

 

Ain't that the truth. Reminds me of this past January when an uncle of mine was so stubbornly insistent AAPL "would never break 500, it has too much cash". He bought that level too.:shocked:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.