True Genius Resides in Simplicity

[Enigmatics 10]

I agree with you here. This thread had nothing to do with and strategy actually , it kind of morphed that way. I mentioned something about it but that was it just a mention. By no means am I stating that I figured anything out , in fact I figured out nothing someone showed me something. I take credit for nothing.

 

I also have never made any claims that I am making great money. I said I am making what I need to make. That number will be different for everyone.

 

I also agree with you about methods working differently for everyone. In fact as I was reading your post about your friend and the coding I was immediately turned off because of the word coding. I follow price and that's it so that method probably would not work for me even though it works great for him.

 

Every person is different and their emotional reactions will be different to every situation , that is why the trader told me this about systems: " People are always trying to quantify the market , it cannot be done. You cannot quantify human emotions. Decisions are not black and white. Decisions fall in the grey area. Black and white can be quantified but grey cannot"

 

Ya, no system will be able to supercede the "user" using it. There is an ebb and flow to movement that tests the very fabric of patience and trust ..... especially in this day and age with algo's doing 85% of the yearly trading.

[zdo 20]

Omg… you did it again! ...these little truisms and traps you're spurtin are unintentionally misleading!

Black and white can be quantified but grey cannot

Grey must be ‘quantified’ in wetware (where there’s quite high proficiency in humanoids -maybe too high, especially for traders) or in code (where the ‘proficiency’ is significantly more challenging)

They call it ‘fuzzy logic’... and we 'do it' -quantify the grey - all the time

 

Hope that ultimately you’re not taking my reactions personally... they are for other readers

[jpennybags 11]

I am still here because I keep getting emails about this post so I will continue to post on here until others stop.

 

Alright, cutting myself loose from the thread. I've said all I wanted. Really, best of good fortune to you.

[Gekko78 10]

Omg… you did it again! ...these little truisms and traps you're spurtin are unintentionally misleading!

 

Grey must be ‘quantified’ in wetware (where there’s quite high proficiency in humanoids) or in code (where the ‘proficiency’ is significantly more challenging)

They call it ‘fuzzy logic’...

 

Hope that ultimately you’re not taking my reactions personally... they are for other readers

 

I do not take anything personally , I don't know you.

 

You keep thinking you can quantify human emotions. The Black/Scholes guys could not do it and I believe they were pretty smart guys. But hey maybe you can do it. Maybe you will be the guy who can use math to tell you what I am thinking.

[zdo 20]

... I don't know you.

 

You keep thinking you can quantify human emotions. .

 

you don't know me, but you think I think I can quantify human "emotions"... ??

that quite a jump... on all sorts of levels...

 

will PM you when you're 'right' ... jk

[SIUYA 11]

What if the method is not complex? What if it is a simple as buy here , sell here done. what then?

 

 

That is simple.....

.....how do you then quantify the price levels?

What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen?

How do you scale it?

What happens if x,y,z happens?

what happens if a string of losses occur?

what happens if the regime/market mood changes?

 

.....it all sounds like its a system that the orders are given to you....

Just be careful of these systems.

 

There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye.....and quantifying everything is usually the stopper.....

possibly why most cant really share what they do (not because they are not happy to) - and why there is the debate about intuition etc.

 

IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up.

 

whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down.

 

...............

[Gekko78 10]

That is simple.....

.....how do you then quantify the price levels?

What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen?

How do you scale it?

What happens if x,y,z happens?

what happens if a string of losses occur?

what happens if the regime/market mood changes?

 

.....it all sounds like its a system that the orders are given to you....

Just be careful of these systems.

 

There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye.....and quantifying everything is usually the stopper.....

possibly why most cant really share what they do (not because they are not happy to) - and why there is the debate about intuition etc.

 

IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up.

 

whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down.

 

...............

 

Using that logic then everything could be considered a system. Throwing darts at a board randomly can be considered a system.

 

No there is no complexity with it.

 

What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen? Well I never think the market "should" do anything . If I get in and it goes south my stop gets hit and I am out .....done move on to the next one.

 

What happens if x,y,z happens? What if it does? What if Venus crosses the center of the Milky way when price hits my target? The trade either works out or it doesn't

 

what happens if a string of losses occur? Then a string of losses occur. Big deal. I have already looked at a few years of data to see how it played out and it looks fine to me.The problem with many traders is that because there method fails a few times they give up. Not a good idea.

what happens if the regime/market mood changes? That's an emotional game which I do not play. That stuff does not matter to me. The trade will either present itself or not. Market mood does not concern me.

There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye No, actually there is not . People tend to complicate things are are quite simple.

 

IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up. Guess we will find out. I highly doubt it though as the same strategy has been used by by floor traders for decades ( according to him)

 

whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down. Maybe you should try this out and see. I would be willing to wager that it probably would produce pretty good results.

[SIUYA 11]

Using that logic then everything could be considered a system. Throwing darts at a board randomly can be considered a system.

 

No there is no complexity with it.

 

What happens when it does not do what you want, or what you would like, or think should happen? Well I never think the market "should" do anything . If I get in and it goes south my stop gets hit and I am out .....done move on to the next one.

 

What happens if x,y,z happens? What if it does? What if Venus crosses the center of the Milky way when price hits my target? The trade either works out or it doesn't

 

what happens if a string of losses occur? Then a string of losses occur. Big deal. I have already looked at a few years of data to see how it played out and it looks fine to me.The problem with many traders is that because there method fails a few times they give up. Not a good idea.

what happens if the regime/market mood changes? That's an emotional game which I do not play. That stuff does not matter to me. The trade will either present itself or not. Market mood does not concern me.

There is always a bit more complexity than meets the eye No, actually there is not . People tend to complicate things are are quite simple.

 

IMHO the simplest systems usually go great guns in particular markets or situations....and then they blow up. Guess we will find out. I highly doubt it though as the same strategy has been used by by floor traders for decades ( according to him)

 

whats the simplest system of them all - look at a chart and buy if it appears like it going up, sell if it appears like it going down. Maybe you should try this out and see. I would be willing to wager that it probably would produce pretty good results.

 

you do realise that in answering these questions it has made the simple system more complex.... ....just by the nature of it being a strategy with tactics means it has some complexity....

 

and for you to have tested it by looking at a few years of data means that there is a system to it......in other words its not just random longs or shorts with random stops.....

 

Most systems are incredibly simple - and it always amazes me that a simple system can often enter at similar levels or have similar PL returns as a very complex one. (win or loose)...hence you may as well keep it simple

 

I think you do make a good distinction.....Your reactions to the system or the series of trades does not need to be any more complicated than it should be.....and that definitely has value. (Some may disagree here but hey thats a forum )

Edited July 2, 2013 by SIUYA

[SunTrader 10]

True genius resides ............ on a different thread than this. :doh:

 

But didn't believe the day would come when I would actually understand and agree with much of what zdo has posted.

 

[Gekko78 10]

True genius resides ............ on a different thread than this. :doh:

 

But didn't believe the day would come when I would actually understand and agree with much of what zdo has posted.

 

 

Glad I could help you mend a relationship. This thread is now successful.

[tradingwizzard 10]

simple things work best....it's always like this

[SunTrader 10]

Glad I could help you mend a relationship. This thread is now successful.

You shouldn't have such low standards.

 

[SunTrader 10]

simple things work best....it's always like this

Two words that don't apply when describing trading: Always and Never.

[Enigmatics 10]

Two words that don't apply when describing trading: Always and Never.

 

Ain't that the truth. Reminds me of this past January when an uncle of mine was so stubbornly insistent AAPL "would never break 500, it has too much cash". He bought that level too.:shocked: