The Martingale System in Forex Trading

[Igor 10]

The Martingale system is a probability theory that’s been popular in gambling since the eighteenth century, and more recently in forex trading. The strategy can be used in any situation where there is an even money (or close to even money) outcome – for example, a coin toss, or red/black on a roulette board.

 

The idea of the Martingale System is to double the bet after every losing bet, so that when a win eventually comes, all losses are recouped, along with a small profit from the initial bet. Of course, for the system to work, a very large bankroll is required to counter the possibility of long losing streaks.

 

The Martingale system originated in France during the eighteenth century, it wasn’t until the twentieth century, however, that the theory was examined more closely by probability theorist and mathematician Paul Lévy. However Lévy did not use the term “Martingale” – this was introduced in 1939 by Ville, who saw the similarities between Levy’s research and the earlier French betting strategies of the same name.

 

The Martingale System is often applied in forex trading either manually or through expert advisors run on the MT4 trader platform. The system is attractive to new investors because on the surface it seems like a failsafe method for making decisions. But as the Investopedia definition of the Martingale system describes, it’s a “very risky method of investing” because of the inherent risk of a losing run that’s long enough to bankrupt the investor.

 

Unlike forex trading, where more control can be exercised in the system’s use, in roulette the Martingale system actually has a negative expectation because of the house edge in the form of the zero (and in some variations the double zero). This house edge adds the extra chance of a loss every 36 spins.

 

Using roulette as an example of the inherent risk of the system, in 73 spins there is a 50.3% chance that you will lose 6 “coin flip” (e.g. red vs black) spins in a row. This means that if your initial wager is $10, you would need to be placing a wager of $640 (after $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 + $160 + $320) on the seventh spin just to win back your original $10 bet. Of course, losing streaks even greater than six are also frequent. See this article for more information about the Martingale system in roulette.

 

There’s really no such thing as a free lunch when it comes to systems like this, and the Martingale system is deceptively risky. The expected value is zero, and actually less than zero when it is being used on something that’s 50-50 yet the house is taking a percentage, such as in roulette. The zero expected value is just not very apparent because the downside seems so improbable, and yet is so catastrophic when it actually occurs.

 

Whilst it may seem on the surface to be an infallible strategy, the Martingale system is inherently flawed because of the huge bank required and the inherent risk of losing that bank. Long losing streaks are far more common than intuition would suggest, and the small rewards from winning the vast majority of the time are quickly offset when a long losing streak occurs.

 

In contrast to roulette the Martingale system is less risky when used in forex trading than in gambling. This is for several reasons, including:

• Expert advisors can be configured to incorporate stop losses

• Unlike the pure randomness of a coin toss, outcomes in the world of forex trading will to some extent depend on previous outcomes, making very long losing streaks less likely

• The system can be adapted to be more sophisticated in order to deal with the greater complexities of the forex world, making it more of a variation on the traditional Martingale, and potentially profitable.

 

One of the main downsides of using the Martingale system in forex trading is ending up on the wrong side of a down-trending market. Without proper stop losses in place to protect your position, the trades could continue to be executed by the expert advisor with the market experiencing a downswing, which could quickly put you in a position where a small starting trade has grown by several thousand per cent.

 

If you’d like to experiment with some variations of the Martingale system in your own trading, it’s a good idea to try it with a demo account first and let it run over a large sample size so you can get a good idea for the potential for long streaks. Even after getting a firm understanding of how the Martingale system can work for forex trading, it’s still a good idea to make sure you are well leveraged before trying anything automated using an EA.

 

Thanks to www.MapleLeafCasino.ca for their help with this article.

[Guest OILFXPRO]

Lear to make pips and become a skilled trader , one who can daily take pips out of the market.That is a professional skilled trader.

 

These thoughts of gambling and winning by gambling is sign of a weak trader , the power of the thought will lead to blowing your accounts under emotional control.

[zupcon 10]

Lear to make pips and become a skilled trader , one who can daily take pips out of the market.That is a professional skilled trader.

 

These thoughts of gambling and winning by gambling is sign of a weak trader , the power of the thought will lead to blowing your accounts under emotional control.

 

 

I have to disagree.

 

I do know people who make money everyday, or most days, but they are not traders staring at charts. Unless your engaged in exploiting some fairly complex arbitrage opportunities, I doubt there's anyone out there consistently taking pips over such a small period of time

 

It doesn't take much imagination to design a method of making money everyday, and I'm sure we've all been there, but generally there's another side to that particular coin.

 

Trading is a fairly difficult undertaking because your opponents edge is a lot bigger than most people imagine. Any post that attempts to reinforce the crazy idea that you get rich by making money every day needs to be challenged.

 

I'm no advocate of martingale position sizing, and its somewhat of a shock to see it being pimped by a moderator (well actually it isn't, but that's because I'm a cynical old git who knows how the industry works) but the adoption of the mindset of a professional gambler is in my opinion at least, almost a pre requisite to trading successfully.

 

I'm very clear on my position, I gamble, and I manage that process, and I make money by capitalizing on good luck.

[RichardCox 10]

Lear to make pips and become a skilled trader , one who can daily take pips out of the market.That is a professional skilled trader.

 

These thoughts of gambling and winning by gambling is sign of a weak trader , the power of the thought will lead to blowing your accounts under emotional control.

 

ok igor, thanks for making a post.

[Guest OILFXPRO]

I have to disagree.

 

I do know people who make money everyday, or most days, but they are not traders staring at charts. Unless your engaged in exploiting some fairly complex arbitrage opportunities, I doubt there's anyone out there consistently taking pips over such a small period of time

 

It doesn't take much imagination to design a method of making money everyday, and I'm sure we've all been there, but generally there's another side to that particular coin.

 

Trading is a fairly difficult undertaking because your opponents edge is a lot bigger than most people imagine. Any post that attempts to reinforce the crazy idea that you get rich by making money every day needs to be challenged.

 

I'm no advocate of martingale position sizing, and its somewhat of a shock to see it being pimped by a moderator (well actually it isn't, but that's because I'm a cynical old git who knows how the industry works) but the adoption of the mindset of a professional gambler is in my opinion at least, almost a pre requisite to trading successfully.

 

I'm very clear on my position, I gamble, and I manage that process, and I make money by capitalizing on good luck.

 

There are are gamblers who rely on luck , but there are traders who rely on skill to extract pips out of the market.Compare this analogy :A gambling butcher and a skilled surgeon are allowed to operate on two identical operations , both are asked to remove an ulcer bypass.The skilled surgeon knows exactly where to make the skillful cuts , the gambling butcher cuts and cuts and cuts in all places and his luck finally finds the place to cut the ulcer bypass.

 

Gentlemen I rest my case between between gamblers and traders.The gambler does not need encouragement , he needs help to become skilled at doing the job correctly.

 

Of course skilled gamblers can make a living by betting the roof , but any gambler will blow their roof without making a living.We need not tell an unskilled person how to risk more for same reward.

[Guest OILFXPRO]

This is the poorest advice I have read anywhere , considering a trader can have 16 to 20 losses in a row .80 % of potential trend breakouts fail and are fakes and technical analysis is junk science .

 

If a trader starts with even 2 % per trade , it is quick blow out of the account.

[zupcon 10]

This is the poorest advice I have read anywhere.....

 

There's some very stiff competition out there, its not the worst advice I've seen, its not even in the same ballpark as some of the intelligent nonsense that's peddled by industry shills.

[Guest OILFXPRO]

There's some very stiff competition out there, its not the worst advice I've seen, its not even in the same ballpark as some of the intelligent nonsense that's peddled by industry shills.

 

If some one wants to post this type of stuff , at least they should do some intelligent invention , then post here.There is a version of a betting sequence which works for trading , but the information about it is private.

 

Here is the problem with most systems traders and discretionary traders , they surely make pips every week with skill ........like 30 to 50 pips weekly , then they blow it with 2 mistakes.:haha::haha: There are systems out there which make pips or points , they screw up with human errors and trading mindsets , hence need for martingaling.

[zupcon 10]

If some one wants to post this type of stuff , at least they should do some intelligent invention , then post here.There is a version of a betting sequence which works for trading , but the information about it is private..

 

I do think that particular betting sequences can form part of an edge

 

Different kinds of trading approaches do have an influence on the distribution of returns, and there are betting sequences that can be exploited to capitalize on long streaks of consecutive wins for example, or alternatively, to reduce losses in long runs of consecutive losses.

 

I think if your attempting to engineering a particular distribution in gains and losses, it might be worth taking a closer look

[Guest OILFXPRO]

I do think that particular betting sequences can form part of an edge

 

Different kinds of trading approaches do have an influence on the distribution of returns, and there are betting sequences that can be exploited to capitalize on long streaks of consecutive wins for example, or alternatively, to reduce losses in long runs of consecutive losses.

 

I think if your attempting to engineering a particular distribution in gains and losses, it might be worth taking a closer look

 

Assume these as facts , market trends only 20 % of the time , 80 % of potential trending entries fail or just about break even.. Devise you position size , so if you have 4 to 8 non performers or losses , you can eventually recover the losses and can survive up to 30 losses in a draw down.

 

It can be done , rather a martingale revenge trading system.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Assume these as facts , market trends only 20 % of the time , 80 % of potential trending entries fail or just about break even.. Devise you position size , so if you have 4 to 8 non performers or losses , you can eventually recover the losses and can survive up to 30 losses in a draw down.

 

It can be done , rather a martingale revenge trading system.

 

again the 80/20 discussion

[SIUYA 11]

Assume these as facts , market trends only 20 % of the time , 80 % of potential trending entries fail or just about break even.. Devise you position size , so if you have 4 to 8 non performers or losses , you can eventually recover the losses and can survive up to 30 losses in a draw down.

 

It can be done , rather a martingale revenge trading system.

 

Yes the 80/20 :doh:

Most trend following systems when tested might be more like 40/60 or 30/70

Trend following systems that might have a ratio of winners to losers can get this same ratio in a trending market depending on what the markets do.....rattling off markets only trend 20% of the time is pointless.

Its as worthless as saying 80% of options expire OTM therefore its a low risk trade to sell them,

Even with these ratios - when markets do trend and these are of course long term trend following systems - not applicable to day trading - they actually make good money without a doubling up of the losers (Matingale system). In fact they cut their losses.

 

trend following as a strategy is usually about as far from martingale as you can get.

 

Maybe this comment says it all "There is a version of a betting sequence which works for trading , but the information about it is private." - the secret sauce

[Guest OILFXPRO]

I do think that particular betting sequences can form part of an edge

 

Different kinds of trading approaches do have an influence on the distribution of returns, and there are betting sequences that can be exploited to capitalize on long streaks of consecutive wins for example, or alternatively, to reduce losses in long runs of consecutive losses.

 

I think if your attempting to engineering a particular distribution in gains and losses, it might be worth taking a closer look

 

Get a 50 % hit rate system 48% after spread , use a betting sequence that can cope with 28 losses and can recover the losses ,you get a profit at the end .Is that not an edge?Most 50 /50 systems will not have more than 10 losses in a row , and not more than 25 in a draw down.

[Guest OILFXPRO]

The Martingale system is a probability theory that’s been popular in gambling since the eighteenth century, and more recently in forex trading. The strategy can be used in any situation where there is an even money (or close to even money) outcome – for example, a coin toss, or red/black on a roulette board.

 

The idea of the Martingale System is to double the bet after every losing bet, so that when a win eventually comes, all losses are recouped, along with a small profit from the initial bet. Of course, for the system to work, a very large bankroll is required to counter the possibility of long losing streaks.

 

The Martingale system originated in France during the eighteenth century, it wasn’t until the twentieth century, however, that the theory was examined more closely by probability theorist and mathematician Paul Lévy. However Lévy did not use the term “Martingale” – this was introduced in 1939 by Ville, who saw the similarities between Levy’s research and the earlier French betting strategies of the same name.

 

The Martingale System is often applied in forex trading either manually or through expert advisors run on the MT4 trader platform. The system is attractive to new investors because on the surface it seems like a failsafe method for making decisions. But as the Investopedia definition of the Martingale system describes, it’s a “very risky method of investing” because of the inherent risk of a losing run that’s long enough to bankrupt the investor.

 

Unlike forex trading, where more control can be exercised in the system’s use, in roulette the Martingale system actually has a negative expectation because of the house edge in the form of the zero (and in some variations the double zero). This house edge adds the extra chance of a loss every 36 spins.

 

Using roulette as an example of the inherent risk of the system, in 73 spins there is a 50.3% chance that you will lose 6 “coin flip” (e.g. red vs black) spins in a row. This means that if your initial wager is $10, you would need to be placing a wager of $640 (after $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 + $160 + $320) on the seventh spin just to win back your original $10 bet. Of course, losing streaks even greater than six are also frequent. See this article for more information about the Martingale system in roulette.

 

There’s really no such thing as a free lunch when it comes to systems like this, and the Martingale system is deceptively risky. The expected value is zero, and actually less than zero when it is being used on something that’s 50-50 yet the house is taking a percentage, such as in roulette. The zero expected value is just not very apparent because the downside seems so improbable, and yet is so catastrophic when it actually occurs.

 

Whilst it may seem on the surface to be an infallible strategy, the Martingale system is inherently flawed because of the huge bank required and the inherent risk of losing that bank. Long losing streaks are far more common than intuition would suggest, and the small rewards from winning the vast majority of the time are quickly offset when a long losing streak occurs.

 

In contrast to roulette the Martingale system is less risky when used in forex trading than in gambling. This is for several reasons, including:

• Expert advisors can be configured to incorporate stop losses

• Unlike the pure randomness of a coin toss, outcomes in the world of forex trading will to some extent depend on previous outcomes, making very long losing streaks less likely

• The system can be adapted to be more sophisticated in order to deal with the greater complexities of the forex world, making it more of a variation on the traditional Martingale, and potentially profitable.

 

One of the main downsides of using the Martingale system in forex trading is ending up on the wrong side of a down-trending market. Without proper stop losses in place to protect your position, the trades could continue to be executed by the expert advisor with the market experiencing a downswing, which could quickly put you in a position where a small starting trade has grown by several thousand per cent.

 

If you’d like to experiment with some variations of the Martingale system in your own trading, it’s a good idea to try it with a demo account first and let it run over a large sample size so you can get a good idea for the potential for long streaks. Even after getting a firm understanding of how the Martingale system can work for forex trading, it’s still a good idea to make sure you are well leveraged before trying anything automated using an EA.

 

Thanks to MapleLeafCasino.CA - A Complete Online Casino Resource Guide for Canadian Online Casinos for their help with this article.

 

We should be allowed to see the IQ of S M.