Humbled Trading Log

[humbled 10]

Hey Humbled .... as per your request, here was what I was watching and traded today.

 

15min chart clearly showed trend line support. So after about 5mins of holding that support and buy volume was steady I entered long with a stop below that TL. Notice it was also a 1 week volume POC. That's what we call chart "confluence".

 

 

The 5min shows my targets. First target was the trend line. I actually sold my whole position there. Wasn't really using what I considered a position worth scaling from. I re-entered after it retraced back to the TL and tested it for support. Only used half of the position size of my first trade. Next target was the 2 day volume POC.

 

 

I want to point out something that I've observed. Remember late yesterday there was that vicious sell off from the VWAP down to 161.08 .... look at the candle count. Anytime I see 8-9 straight down candles the first thing in my head is "stop run". Don't base your trading around it, but try to observe it if you ever see it on a chart.

 

 

Enigmatics,

 

Super info. I am working to understand some of your concepts and methods here. Please keep sharing as it will take some time to absorb.

 

Humbled

PS I did study volume today but I am still learning to read it like you have shown. Clearly the answer is a slightly longer time frame. The 1 minute has too many signs to decipher.

[humbled 10]

This was a bad trade. I have no faith in the current setup so hard to take any trade with conviction of any kind.

 

 

Beyond frustrated. Wrong attitude for trading. I will go back and read DB and study the POC and VWAP.

 

Humbled

Edited July 2, 2013 by humbled

[humbled 10]

I would have been stopped out now anyways.

 

Humbled

[Enigmatics 10]

Enigmatics,

 

Super info. I am working to understand some of your concepts and methods here. Please keep sharing as it will take some time to absorb.

 

Humbled

PS I did study volume today but I am still learning to read it like you have shown. Clearly the answer is a slightly longer time frame. The 1 minute has too many signs to decipher.

 

I stay the hell away from 1mins. No thank you. IMO that's a professional scalpers chart. Guys who use it are a cut above the rest and really know they're support/resistance levels. It requires operating with air-tight precision.

 

Again, the mindset with using volume POC's is that they act as magnets if you know which side has the control of the orderflow. It's why this market spends quite a bit of time performing "mean reversion" after an "extreme" has been reached when buyers/sellers run out of ammo. Picture it like throwing a ball into the air. It's going to come right back down to you if you don't figure out a way to build something (i.e. support) so as to go catch it at a higher level.

[humbled 10]

I stay the hell away from 1mins. No thank you. IMO that's a professional scalpers chart. Guys who use it are a cut above the rest and really know they're support/resistance levels. It requires operating with air-tight precision.

 

Again, the mindset with using volume POC's is that they act as magnets if you know which side has the control of the orderflow. It's why this market spends quite a bit of time performing "mean reversion" after an "extreme" has been reached when buyers/sellers run out of ammo. Picture it like throwing a ball into the air. It's going to come right back down to you if you don't figure out a way to build something (i.e. support) so as to go catch it at a higher level.

 

 

Enigmatics,

 

I could not agree with you more (Again). I did not select the time frame, I want to be a good student so I do as I am told but I can tell you the 1 minute has not served me well so far.

 

I am reviewing the POC and ideas you have presented as I know the current method is not working. I will be soaking up as much as I can in review of the charts you have posted.

 

Humbled (beyond belief)

[Enigmatics 10]

Enigmatics,

 

I could not agree with you more (Again). I did not select the time frame, I want to be a good student so I do as I am told but I can tell you the 1 minute has not served me well so far.

 

I am reviewing the POC and ideas you have presented as I know the current method is not working. I will be soaking up as much as I can in review of the charts you have posted.

 

Humbled (beyond belief)

 

Another way to look at it is ..... this is an "auction" process. Volume POC's represent where the most buyers/sellers "agree" on price in a current auction or a previous one. Naturally, if demand or supply run out while it's being bid up or bid down, at what level is the most interest going to strike back up again?

Edited July 3, 2013 by Enigmatics

[Enigmatics 10]

Here you go Humbled. The day's bounce trade off the bottom.....

 

- There was a clearcut sell climax (exhaustion) at today's bottmo

- A massive demand volume bar kicked in at about 2:50pmEST, which overcame supply

- Trend line was broken and held with higher lows

- Price reverted back to yesterday's POC at 161.25

 

I actually screwed this one up though. I took the trade on a break of the 160.88 level. It moved up to 161.07 then dipped on me below my entry. I bailed and then of course a stop volume candle occurred and it put in a higher low.

 

My sell was naive because nowhere in the dip did the selling pick up to outside that big volume demand bar. I should've showed more patience in waiting out a higher low.

 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Enigmatics

[humbled 10]

Here you go Humbled. The day's bounce trade off the bottom.....

 

- There was a clearcut sell climax (exhaustion) at today's bottmo

- A massive demand volume bar kicked in at about 2:50pmEST, which overcame supply

- Trend line was broken and held with higher lows

- Price reverted back to yesterday's POC at 161.25

 

I actually screwed this one up though. I took the trade on a break of the 160.88 level. It moved up to 161.07 then dipped on me below my entry. I bailed and then of course a stop volume candle occurred and it put in a higher low.

 

My sell was naive because nowhere in the dip did the selling pick up to outside that big volume demand bar. I should've showed more patience in waiting out a higher low.

 

 

 

Enigmatics,

 

I love the honesty in your post and I appreciate the review. What is the best way to derive the POC #'s for SPX so I can highlight them or do I need to move to SPY to find them.

 

I will start watching reactions at these levels. I have included a chart using a tool called TPO in ThinkorSwim. Showing just one day of price action leads to a line today at 1622.09.

 

Thanks for your assistance.

 

Humbled

[MightyMouse 12]

Another way to look at it is ..... this is an "auction" process. Volume POC's represent where the most buyers/sellers "agree" on price in a current auction or a previous one. Naturally, if demand or supply run out while it's being bid up or bid down, where is the most interest level going to strike back up again?

 

When I buy and you sell, we agree on price, but we disagree on direction. The POC, then. could be viewed as the price where most people disagreed on direction during a time period.

Edited July 3, 2013 by MightyMouse

[Enigmatics 10]

When I buy and you sell, we agree on price, but we disagree on direction. The POC, then. could be viewed as the price where most people disagreed on direction during a time period.

 

Ya, you can definitely look at it that way. The volume POC is a non-directional congestion point. It's the price where volume happens the most often i.e. "the mode". It can act as support/resistance and generally speaking is not the easiest place to take a trade from unless you're good at spotting the visual cues of when new value is being sought out.

Edited July 3, 2013 by Enigmatics

[Enigmatics 10]

Enigmatics,

 

I love the honesty in your post and I appreciate the review. What is the best way to derive the POC #'s for SPX so I can highlight them or do I need to move to SPY to find them.

 

I will start watching reactions at these levels. I have included a chart using a tool called TPO in ThinkorSwim. Showing just one day of price action leads to a line today at 1622.09.

 

Thanks for your assistance.

 

Humbled

 

Actually, don't use TPO. Those are "Time Priced Opportunities" otherwise known as MarketProfile. They act similarly, but are not based on volume. The one you want is called "VolumeProfile" and it's in the same "Profiles" section as where you found TPO. Then you can go into the settings and make sure POC's get color coded. The pillars of "Market Auction Theory" were originally applied to MarketProfile, but you can use it just the same on VolumeProfile.

 

As a reference point I'm always paying attention to:

 

- Today's VPOC

- Yesterday's VPOC

- The 2 Day VPOC

- 1 Week VPOC

- 1 month VPOC

- Quarterly VPOC

- 6 month VPOC

- Yearly VPOC

 

Obviously when you're day trading all of those are not always going to be serviceable, but it's up to you the night before to know if they're going to come into play. The SPX and SPY will each have their own volume profile makeup, but on most occasions should be very similar.

[humbled 10]

Here are the levels or zones for tomorrow.

 

 

Humbled

[Seeker 11]

Enigmatics,

 

I could not agree with you more (Again). I did not select the time frame, I want to be a good student so I do as I am told but I can tell you the 1 minute has not served me well so far.

 

I am reviewing the POC and ideas you have presented as I know the current method is not working. I will be soaking up as much as I can in review of the charts you have posted.

 

Humbled (beyond belief)

 

Just some questions for you to think about, and you don't need to answer.

 

You previously posted that you believed you needed to become consistent. How do you expect to trade consistently if you are not consistent in your method? I observe you are switching between 1 minute and 2 minute bar intervals, and one trade you have stops in a defined place but then another trade you are moving them/exiting because you have no belief in the system, and now you're almost ready to throw the idea away because you don't believe it's working for you (at least not on 1 minute bar interval)?

 

 

Is this number of trades really enough to convince you that it's not working? Especially given that you're only learning it...haven't really sorted out your exits...and are breaking the rules.

 

Is changing approach every time you hit a rough patch the route to consistency?

[humbled 10]

Just some questions for you to think about, and you don't need to answer.

 

You previously posted that you believed you needed to become consistent. How do you expect to trade consistently if you are not consistent in your method? I observe you are switching between 1 minute and 2 minute bar intervals, and one trade you have stops in a defined place but then another trade you are moving them/exiting because you have no belief in the system, and now you're almost ready to throw the idea away because you don't believe it's working for you (at least not on 1 minute bar interval)?

 

 

Is this number of trades really enough to convince you that it's not working? Especially given that you're only learning it...haven't really sorted out your exits...and are breaking the rules.

 

Is changing approach every time you hit a rough patch the route to consistency?

 

 

 

Seeker ,

 

Some good points here. Let me address them

 

 

My plan as Thales directed so far was to look for a Trader Vice 123 or 2b pattern VERY close to a key level. I was allowed to use 5 minute charts until we got close. I then was told to zoom in and take my entry on a one minute time frame. I have applied this approach verbatim or at least as close as I could.

 

As I experienced these trades I was given examples of when Thales cut them short, when he allowed the trade to work and when he saw things that suggested that a loss should not be taken. I have done my best to attempt to react like that but its not learned yet.

 

Thales suggested that I read DB's work and start to work that in. I am learning that as well right now.

 

What you are seeing is the frustration of me trying to execute a pattern that occurs all around these key levels. It occurs several times in both direction at one of these levels. Without the filter to define which ones to omit and which ones to take, I feel like a pin cushion. I am sure as I understand more of what Thales has wanted me to learn I will find many of these attempts filtered.

 

I am watching 2 min and other time frames trying to read volume and observe. On Thales own suggestion he said I could observe volume but he also mentioned he does not use it. As he shares more I can understand how to control the abundance of signals and decides on direction. In the absence, while Thales is away I am doing the observing he mentioned

 

As for the 1 minute comment. I admit it is very fast and I find many false signals but I have followed the plan. The poor exit is a mixture of my attempts to read what Thales meant from previous posts. Thales has given me many pieces of the puzzle but I am struggling to put them together.

 

I must admit I studied Thales history and the trading of his daughter who started at 9 years old and has done very well. I noticed many comments that she managed trades with a stop or a target and did not get in the way of the trade but I have not arrived at that point yet. I have attempted to adjust based on Thales responses. He must have a reason for teaching me this way.

 

Maybe the addition of Supply and Demand lines from DB's work will add to the setup. Maybe I will be more confused. I can't say yet.

 

Seeker if I had my druthers, of course I would ask for exact directions. Why. How. A totally transparent view but clearly Thales has shared in a process that he feels will help me.

 

I can tell you at this point something is missing as I fumble around each key level switching back and forth in a rush to read what the market is saying. Maybe after some clarity is added my frustration level will drop.

 

Humbled

 

PS. I actually think I have done a pretty good interpreting what has been said if you read all of the directions I have been given but I have simply shared the whole experience including the pressure of low accuracy and lower reward trading.

Edited July 3, 2013 by humbled

[Seeker 11]

Seeker ,

 

Some good points here. Let me address them

 

 

My plan as Thales directed so far was to look for a Trader Vice 123 or 2b pattern VERY close to a key level. I was allowed to use 5 minute charts until we got close. I then was told to zoom in and take my entry on a one minute time frame. I have applied this approach verbatim or at least as close as I could.

 

As I experienced these trades I was given examples of when Thales cut them short, when he allowed the trade to work and when he saw things that suggested that a loss should not be taken. I have done my best to attempt to react like that but its not learned yet.

 

Thales suggested that I read DB's work and start to work that in. I am learning that as well right now.

 

What you are seeing is the frustration of me trying to execute a pattern that occurs all around these key levels. It occurs several times in both direction at one of these levels. Without the filter to define which ones to omit and which ones to take, I feel like a pin cushion. I am sure as I understand more of what Thales has wanted me to learn I will find many of these attempts filtered.

 

I am watching 2 min and other time frames trying to read volume and observe. On Thales own suggestion he said I could observe volume but he also mentioned he does not use it. As he shares more I can understand how to control the abundance of signals and decides on direction. In the absence, while Thales is away I am doing the observing he mentioned

 

As for the 1 minute comment. I admit it is very fast and I find many false signals but I have followed the plan. The poor exit is a mixture of my attempts to read what Thales meant from previous posts. Thales has given me many pieces of the puzzle but I am struggling to put them together.

 

I must admit I studied Thales history and the trading of his daughter who started at 9 years old and has done very well. I noticed many comments that she managed trades with a stop or a target and did not get in the way of the trade but I have not arrived at that point yet. I have attempted to adjust based on Thales responses. He must have a reason for teaching me this way.

 

Maybe the addition of Supply and Demand lines from DB's work will add to the setup. Maybe I will be more confused. I can't say yet.

 

Seeker if I had my druthers, of course I would ask for exact directions. Why. How. A totally transparent view but clearly Thales has shared in a process that he feels will help me.

 

I can tell you at this point something is missing as I fumble around each key level switching back and forth in a rush to read what the market is saying. Maybe after some clarity is added my frustration level will drop.

 

Humbled

 

PS. I actually think I have done a pretty good interpreting what has been said if you read all of the directions I have been given but I have simply shared the whole experience including the pressure of low accuracy and lower reward trading.

 

 

Humbled, I think you have done well, and said so. I am posing questions because it seemed like you were giving up on the approach already. Jumping from one thing to another because of short term poor performance is one of the things that makes trading well take so long.

[Enigmatics 10]

Humbled ....

 

Definitely read what DB writes, but honestly it's very advanced material. I wouldn't even try to use it to trade for some time .... until it sinks in and really makes sense.

[tradingwizzard 10]

just saying, I kind of agreeing with seeker here...one of the most important rules in trading is to be consistent.........not flip flop as your analysis might just be good when tested long enough

[humbled 10]

Humbled, I think you have done well, and said so. I am posing questions because it seemed like you were giving up on the approach already. Jumping from one thing to another because of short term poor performance is one of the things that makes trading well take so long.

 

Seeker,

 

I will stay the course. I am frustrated in the moment but I will keep at it. You are right. If I run away I will never get a method down. I will always be switching and consistency will never develop.

 

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

just saying, I kind of agreeing with seeker here...one of the most important rules in trading is to be consistent.........not flip flop as your analysis might just be good when tested long enough

 

Tradingwizzard,

 

You and Seeker are right. I would not have quit but I see your point and I will not flip flop.

 

 

Humbled

[DbPhoenix 42]

Humbled ....

 

Definitely read what DB writes, but honestly it's very advanced material. I wouldn't even try to use it to trade for some time .... until it sinks in and really makes sense.

 

Very advanced? Now that made me smile. It's as basic as one can get. Unfortunately, traders have been so bedazzled by all the bells and whistles that have been shoved at them over the past eighty years than they literally cannot tell up from down. Silence all of that and ignore virtually everything that one has read or been told and give reality an opportunity to emerge. It's a choice between the blue pill and the red pill.

[humbled 10]

Very advanced? Now that made me smile. It's as basic as one can get. Unfortunately, traders have been so bedazzled by all the bells and whistles that have been shoved at them over the past eighty years than they literally cannot tell up from down. Silence all of that and ignore virtually everything that one has read or been told and give reality an opportunity to emerge. It's a choice between the blue pill and the red pill.

 

 

DbPhoenix,

 

Thank you for showing up here. Your method is not advanced to me but I often have to read and re-read to get the information distilled down. That is a function of my own comprehension.

If you review my thread you will see that Thales is coaching me and has suggested that I learn your stuff as part of it. I am currently working the Supply and Demand lines into my entry method. I will be posting charts with my application of your eBooks and welcome your input.

 

 

At this moment I cannot tell up from down but I look forward to having my eyes opened.

 

 

Humbled

[DbPhoenix 42]

DbPhoenix,

 

Thank you for showing up here. Your method is not advanced to me but I often have to read and re-read to get the information distilled down. That is a function of my own comprehension.

If you review my thread you will see that Thales is coaching me and has suggested that I learn your stuff as part of it. I am currently working the Supply and Demand lines into my entry method. I will be posting charts with my application of your eBooks and welcome your input.

 

 

At this moment I cannot tell up from down but I look forward to having my eyes opened.

 

 

Humbled

 

For years I've criticized people -- and not in a good way -- for neglecting to read a thread before they butt in with their redundant and irrelevant comments. But I'm going to do just that, partly because of time, partly because you asked for my help, and partly because previous posts aren't necessarily pertinent. I'm sure you've received plenty of good advice, but you're going to have to go deeper than that in order to turn things around.

 

First, what is your trading plan?

[humbled 10]

For years I've criticized people -- and not in a good way -- for neglecting to read a thread before they butt in with their redundant and irrelevant comments. But I'm going to do just that, partly because of time, partly because you asked for my help, and partly because previous posts aren't necessarily pertinent. I'm sure you've received plenty of good advice, but you're going to have to go deeper than that in order to turn things around.

 

First, what is your trading plan?

 

DbPhoenix,

 

I just forwarded a PM with a download link to my current work in progress.

 

Humbled

[DbPhoenix 42]

DbPhoenix,

 

I just forwarded a PM with a download link to my current work in progress.

 

Humbled

 

1. Approved Instruments

SPX Cash Only via ES Emini Trades

 

OK. Why? And if I seem abrupt, it's only because I want to get things moving, as I'm sure you do.

[humbled 10]

1. Approved Instruments

SPX Cash Only via ES Emini Trades

 

OK. Why? And if I seem abrupt, it's only because I want to get things moving, as I'm sure you do.

 

 

DbPhoenix,

 

I was instructed to take all levels from the SPX Cash index. I post these each night or morning before the market. I attempted one trade in Globex and it was suggested that I did not have a clear picture of my level because the cash index was closed.

 

My guess was that Thales wanted to protect me from low volume overnight stuff. I did not question it as I am sooooo appreciative of the help and thankful for the direction after such struggle.

 

Humbled