Humbled Trading Log

[humbled 10]

I feel like a ping pong ball

 

Now short here

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

All done for today.

 

 

Humbled

[Enigmatics 10]

  humbled said:

All done for today.

 

 

Humbled

 

They whipsawed me so badly there into the EOD. Not pretty.

 

P.S. be extremely congnicent of "overtrading". Some of these little trades you attempt to make IMO are not even worth the hassle.

[humbled 10]

  Enigmatics said:

They whipsawed me so badly there into the EOD. Not pretty.

 

P.S. be extremely congnicent of "overtrading". Some of these little trades you attempt to make IMO are not even worth the hassle.

 

 

 

Enigmatics,

 

Sorry about the end of day mess.

I could not agree more but I have not been taught yet the skill of "selection". I am using the Thales rules like a robot. Please keep posting and I will improve my selection rules by direction of this thread.

 

Humbled

[thalestrader 14]

Now, whether you publish it here it keep all to yourself, you need to write up a week ending review. How did you do this week? How is your plan developing? Have you managed to stick toyour plan more than deviating from it? How do you compare to last week? How many points are you up/down? What percent of your results are commissions/fees (most folks who've been at this for a while will tell yoou that a sure sign of over trading is that your broker is doing better than you)?

 

What are you going to do, if anything, this week end to move yourself forward? How are you going to be approaching the upcoming week?

 

You started this journal three full trading weeks ago: How would you rate your progress thus far. Think of a numberline, and zero (0) is where you were starting from, ten(10) is where you are completely relaxed and happy, you have a plan and you nearly never deviate from it; and negative 10 (-10) is craps - you blew it, you are broke, you give up, and you are ending this scheme to become a day trader. Do you feel you have moved forward, backward, or do you still feel you are at zero?

 

Again, you do not need to publish this here. You have no one to impress or encourage other than yourself. But you should be thinking along these lines, and doing the hard wpork of putting your self-assessment to paper..

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gekko78 10]

  Enigmatics said:

They whipsawed me so badly there into the EOD. Not pretty.

 

P.S. be extremely congnicent of "overtrading". Some of these little trades you attempt to make IMO are not even worth the hassle.

 

Please define " over trading"

 

I hear this term all the time I do not agree with it. I trade for 2 hrs a day. I take every set up I see whether its 1 or 50 I take them all ......why? Because my crystal ball broke a few years ago and I do not know which ones are good and which ones are not. I have given up far to many profitable trades because I stopped before goals met.

 

Now if you mean you hit your daily target whether it be points or monetary then I agree with it.

 

Just want to know what you consider over trading.

[Enigmatics 10]

  Gekko78 said:

Please define " over trading"

 

I hear this term all the time I do not agree with it. I trade for 2 hrs a day. I take every set up I see whether its 1 or 50 I take them all ......why? Because my crystal ball broke a few years ago and I do not know which ones are good and which ones are not. I have given up far to many profitable trades because I stopped before goals met.

 

Now if you mean you hit your daily target whether it be points or monetary then I agree with it.

 

Just want to know what you consider over trading.

 

I do realize that it might sound like an oversimpification to tell him not to overtrade. I'm willing to guess that you have a far better understanding of market/trading mechanics than he does though. Humbled experienced no success in his 4-5 years prior to this. He's basically rebuilding a new "foundation".

 

For him, I consider it important to observe the market in the ways Thales is instructing. Yet he needs to focus more on reward/risk than frequency. Work smarter not harder. Yes, none of us have a crystal ball, but we still have to look at a chart and assess viable targets. He should become really good at a couple setups before trying to learn/trade everything all at once. Some of the little scalps, he should avoid.

 

Not denying you of what you say you've been able to do, but I've never seen any trader (let alone a beginner) show me how they consistenty trade 30-50 times a day and be profitable.

 

You bring up an interesting dichotomy though. You mention it's alright to not overtrade if they hit their daily goal. The problem is, that violates the very principle you established of "trading when the setup is there". I myself have spent the better part of my last 3 years focusing on daily monetary goals. In the end, I think I've held myself back. It has become sort've a crutch. At times it has forced me into impatient trades (trying to hit the goal) and other times it has caused me to prematurely exit winning positions (already made my money). The latter can be worked around via scaling techniques ..... which Humbled will also have to learn the proper mechanisms of.

 

A guy I know who keeps all of his trading stats (btw he benefits from a very high reward/risk ratio that makes me sickeningly envious) has always preached to me to not make it about the money. Make it about successfully conducting a trade.

Edited June 29, 2013 by Enigmatics

[Gekko78 10]

  Enigmatics said:

I do realize that it might sound like an oversimpification to tell him not to overtrade. I'm willing to guess that you have a far better understanding of market/trading mechanics than he does though. Humbled experienced no success in his 4-5 years prior to this. He's basically rebuilding a new "foundation".

 

For him, I consider it important to observe the market in the ways Thales is instructing. Yet he needs to focus more on reward/risk than frequency. Work smarter not harder. Yes, none of us have a crystal ball, but we still have to look at a chart and assess viable targets. He should become really good at a couple setups before trying to learn/trade everything all at once. Some of the little scalps, he should avoid.

 

Not to denying you of what you say you've been able to do, but I've never seen any trader (let alone a beginner) show me how they consistenty trade 30-50 times a day and be profitable.

 

You bring up an interesting dichotomy though. You mention it's alright to not overtrade if they hit their daily goal. The problem is, that violates the very principle you established of "trading when the setup is there". I myself have spent the better part of my last 3 years focusing on daily monetary goals. In the end, I think I've held myself back. It has become sort've a crutch. At times it has forced me into impatient trades (trying to hit the goal) and other times it has caused me to prematurely exit winning positions (already made my money). The latter can be worked around via scaling techniques ..... which Humbled will also have to learn the proper mechanisms of.

 

A guy I know who keeps all of his trading stats (btw he benefits from a very high reward/risk ratio that makes me sickeningly envious) has always preached to me to not make it about the money. Make it about successfully conducting a trade.

 

 

I take all set ups that appear within the allotted time frame I.E. 630 -830

 

Example today on the ES I took 5 trades form 630 -830

 

Yesterday I took 1. Wednesday I took 8 .

 

Once 830 hits I am done. My daily is usually high enough where as not to actually hit it but get as close as possible. I found that setting a goal of say 4 points will often net you 4 points but also cost and additional 4 sometimes since the set ups still appear after your goal is hit. Perhaps I set a goal of 30 a day . The goal is not realistic on the ES , at least for me , so I get as close a possible as not to let psychological barriers get me.

 

Now if I am trading CL then 30 points is very realistic and usually to low.

[humbled 10]

Enigmatics,

 

Agree with your sound advice. Glad you are here on the thread.

 

This statement

  Quote

Yet he needs to focus more on reward/risk than frequency.

 

 

I really look forward to "R" being a part of my plan and setups. I agree but have not earned the right to decide based on my own judgement as it has proven to be flawed:doh:.

 

I will wait for direction from Thales and the thread to suggest methods to improve this setup/plan presented. Next week I hope to add trendlines as Thales instructed me to read DB's work.

 

If anything this trading shows that I can follow rules. It's a better option than throwing in the towel from the frustrations of trading like I was on a roller coaster ride.

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

  thalestrader said:

Now, whether you publish it here it keep all to yourself, you need to write up a week ending review. How did you do this week? How is your plan developing? Have you managed to stick toyour plan more than deviating from it? How do you compare to last week? How many points are you up/down? What percent of your results are commissions/fees (most folks who've been at this for a while will tell yoou that a sure sign of over trading is that your broker is doing better than you)?

 

What are you going to do, if anything, this week end to move yourself forward? How are you going to be approaching the upcoming week?

 

You started this journal three full trading weeks ago: How would you rate your progress thus far. Think of a numberline, and zero (0) is where you were starting from, ten(10) is where you are completely relaxed and happy, you have a plan and you nearly never deviate from it; and negative 10 (-10) is craps - you blew it, you are broke, you give up, and you are ending this scheme to become a day trader. Do you feel you have moved forward, backward, or do you still feel you are at zero?

 

Again, you do not need to publish this here. You have no one to impress or encourage other than yourself. But you should be thinking along these lines, and doing the hard wpork of putting your self-assessment to paper..

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Thales,

 

Done and submitted.

 

 

Thank you for the direction.

 

Humbled

[thalestrader 14]

Good work. Keep doing what you are doing, and keep posting your charts and your trades. I'm taking the week off. I'm not sure if I'll be able to post much, but I will be able to read your posts.

 

I also see the Db has started a new journal over at ET that looks like it will be devoted largely to trendlines and channels. I suggest you follow along. Here is the link:

 

Forums - If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

 

Also, keep studying the material you have from Db, and don't forget the Wyckoff forum here at TL.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Levels for tomorrow. If anyone feels I missed an important level please note them

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

Shorted but not easy when I feel like I am fading the trend.

[humbled 10]

Right or wrong I will wait for another trade.

[humbled 10]

Following the rules but struggling

[humbled 10]

A frustrating experience but I am following the process.

 

Humbled

[Enigmatics 10]

Obviously I talked a little bit with you about how I focus a lot on divergence trades using volume profile and volume spread analsysis.

 

You know what "price pattern" I find commonly occurs with it? The 1-2-3. May be something for you to look at if you've got some time. I typically find trades with way better risk/reward.

[humbled 10]

Have to admit I could not wait for this day to end. Disappointing results.

[humbled 10]

  Enigmatics said:

Obviously I talked a little bit with you about how I focus a lot on divergence trades using volume profile and volume spread analsysis.

 

You know what "price pattern" I find commonly occurs with it? The 1-2-3. May be something for you to look at if you've got some time. I typically find trades with way better risk/reward.

 

Enigmatics,

 

Please post what you can from today. I am happy to study and appreciate your assistance. The risk reward on these trades are horrible imo but again I am trying to be the student with no overlays of my own. I really looked forward to having that become a part of my day trading asap.

 

Humbled

[Enigmatics 10]

  humbled said:

Enigmatics,

 

Please post what you can from today. I am happy to study and appreciate your assistance. The risk reward on these trades are horrible imo but again I am trying to be the student with no overlays of my own. I really looked forward to having that become a part of my day trading asap.

 

Humbled

 

Sure thing. Gimme a sec as I watch this close.

[Enigmatics 10]

OK here's the chart ....

 

Here's the general idea of what I was watching take place.

 

1. We initially were very bullish on the day.

2. After the initial upside trade I took early in the session, I was only looking to take a trade from the extremes. There was an opportunity to short the day's highs, but I decided to be prudent and just wait.

3. SPY consolidated betwen 162 and 162.48 for a few hours, but then sell volume started picking up at 1:45pm and broke VWAP (the light grey line). Sellers have now taken control.

4. At this point my thought process is to wait and watch the new intraday down trend to form a trend line and only enter on a break of that trend line if the volume confirms.

5. SPY bounces of 161.50(1) on increased buy volume (demand), it tests the trend line at 161.74 (2) and then pulls back, but notice it does not make a new low(3) and the sell volume was low (no supply).

6. Trend line is broken. Reversion to the next trendline (also VWAP) can now proceed. There is an upper wick at 161.92 from an earlier attempt to break the downtrend and it did offer some resistance. I could undestand someone scaling some of their profits out at that point.

 

It was important to note the reaction at VWAP. Buy volume did not continue to pour in and sell volume matched it. That VWAP/trendline area was a perfect place to take a short based on the widening wedge pattern that had formed. First target scale out would be the previous bottom (161.50). Second target would be that lower trend line, which was broken earlier for the upside trade. Not ironically that trend line led all the way back down to Friday's volume POC. Notice how sell volume picked up dramatically to take the action there.

 

 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Enigmatics

[Enigmatics 10]

Even though I included volume anlaysis in this example for you, there are price action traders who take that trade just based on the 1-2-3 & trend line break. They'd target the upper wick at 161.92 just like I did and clearly the next trend line as well.

[humbled 10]

  Enigmatics said:

OK here's the chart ....

 

Here's the general idea of what I was watching take place.

 

1. We initially were very bullish on the day.

2. After the initial upside trade I took early in the session, I was only looking to take a trade from the extremes. There was an opportunity to short the day's highs, but I decided to be prudent and just wait.

3. SPY consolidated betwen 162 and 162.48 for a few hours, but then sell volume started picking up at 1:45pm and broke VWAP (the light grey line). Sellers have now taken control.

4. At this point my thought process is to wait and watch the new intraday down trend to form a trend line and only enter on a break of that trend line if the volume confirms.

5. SPY bounces of 161.50(1) on increased buy volume (demand), it tests the trend line at 161.74 (2) and then pulls back, but notice it does not make a new low(3) and the sell volume was low (no supply).

6. Trend line is broken. Reversion to the next trendline (also VWAP) can now proceed. There is an upper wick at 161.92 from an earlier attempt to break the downtrend and it did offer some resistance. I could undestand someone scaling some of their profits out at that point.

 

It was important to note the reaction at VWAP. Buy volume did not continue to pour in and sell volume matched it. That VWAP/trendline area was a perfect place to take a short based on the widening wedge pattern that had formed. First target scale out would be the previous bottom (161.50). Second target would be that lower trend line, which was broken earlier for the upside trade. Not ironically that trend line led all the way back down to Friday's volume POC. Notice how sell volume picked up dramatically to take the action there.

 

 

 

 

Enigmatics,

 

 

Thank you very much for that review. I am going to spend some time on this now. Thanks for being a part of this journal and I truly appreciate the help.

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

I have also posted where they came from. The yellow are today's high and low which will be important for tomorrow.

 

 

Humbled

[Enigmatics 10]

Hey Humbled .... as per your request, here was what I was watching and traded today.

 

15min chart clearly showed trend line support. So after about 5mins of holding that support and buy volume was steady I entered long with a stop below that TL. Notice it was also a 1 week volume POC. That's what we call chart "confluence".

 

 

The 5min shows my targets. First target was the trend line. I actually sold my whole position there. Wasn't really using what I considered a position worth scaling from. I re-entered after it retraced back to the TL and tested it for support. Only used half of the position size of my first trade. Next target was the 2 day volume POC.

 

 

I want to point out something that I've observed. Remember late yesterday there was that vicious sell off from the VWAP down to 161.08 .... look at the candle count. Anytime I see 8-9 straight down candles the first thing in my head is "stop run". Don't base your trading around it, but try to observe it if you ever see it on a chart.