Humbled Trading Log

[humbled 10]

I noticed right at my level 1586.45. Stop 1585.17 SPX

[humbled 10]

How can you formulate a plan until you show these kinds of trade issues. I am happy I am showing this. The struggle of what is right. Today's reactions and responses along with a summary of any advice can help to firm up a "Plan".

 

 

 

Humbled

[steve46 12]

Amazing that you have asked this question "how" when its already been mentioned....you need to understand the mechanics of the market on a practical level....and you're not the only one to make this mistake.....so I will just say it again this last time....it is possible to trade using only technical tools (reading charts etc) however it is not desirable because you are competing against folks who are professionals (the current market is dominated by institutional and commercial participants)....on a day like today you are at a disadvantage because you don't have access to the same tools (or training) as those participants...that is (in my opinion) why you sit here talking about being uncertain about both direction and trade entry.....I've done my part....now the question is are you intelligent enough to see where you need to go to adapt to this situation....

 

I do wish you the best of luck however and I hope you find resources that get you to your goals...and by the way, Thales has really done a great job of help you...

 

Steve

[humbled 10]

Should have made more was distracted and missed a better exit signal. Profitable but I hope the outcome is rules - Money is second.

 

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

So I have a moment here and wanted to mention a couple of things

 

First, no intention of offending anyone, simply want to make the facts known

 

There is nothing wrong with what the original trader is doing. Anytime you trade you have to commit to a specific approach and in that process you make compromises, some of which you are aware of, some you may not be aware of...

 

In this instance the original poster has elected to trade in the context of the 123 pattern.....fair enough....and it is obviously workable...

 

On the other hand in a market dominated by professional interests there are other factors at work and they dictate how the market acts...for example, as we wait for data, markets will sometimes move in a bracketed fashion, and in this model, value is found at the bracket extremes (in this case at the boundaries of the IB)....

 

The attached chart shows our entries today....the left most is the pre-market entry..(we did not take it), the next entry is off the open based on a simple algorithmic pattern that occurs quite frequently, and the last.....a reversal long as participants elect to mark the market up (this is an attempt to "strand" less informed particpants to generate interest and momentum)....

 

In both cases the trader who takes the time to understand what other participants are likely to do, can obtain significant profit (10 points to the down side/equal profit to the upside on the reversal)....

 

This example of a "bracketed market" occurs often enough that I wanted to make it known for future reference

 

Best of luck to everyone

 

Steve

 

 

 

Steve,

 

Now that the market is closed I can focus enough to listen. What are you suggesting as a path to fill in these areas that I am deficient at.

 

Please share I am listening to grow.

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

Amazing that you have asked this question "how" when its already been mentioned....you need to understand the mechanics of the market on a practical level....and you're not the only one to make this mistake.....so I will just say it again this last time....it is possible to trade using only technical tools (reading charts etc) however it is not desirable because you are competing against folks who are professionals (the current market is dominated by institutional and commercial participants)....on a day like today you are at a disadvantage because you don't have access to the same tools (or training) as those participants...that is (in my opinion) why you sit here talking about being uncertain about both direction and trade entry.....I've done my part....now the question is are you intelligent enough to see where you need to go to adapt to this situation....

 

And for those less than stellar individuals who think I am looking for business.....here let me help dispel that notion....I would prefer NOT to work with you....I hope that's clear....

 

I do wish you the best of luck however and I hope you find resources that get you to your goals...and by the way, Thales has really done a great job of help you...

 

Steve

 

Steve,

 

 

Please tell me how do you learn these other areas. I have no clue what I am missing only what I know from here.

 

Humbled

[steve46 12]

As mentioned in our previous conversation, it is difficult to obtain good (useful) practical education about trading, especially about intraday trading. The is true because those who know the markets in this very specialized way are hesitant to transmit that information freely....

 

As a result most folks try to obtain that information by a combination of 1) acute observation of market conditions and 2) various resources usually found at the exchanges including their archives of presentations by skilled practitioners of Market Profile, Value Analytics, and Auction Market Theory

 

In addition to these resources you might want to think about this point....to the extent that I know certain things about the mechanics (and by mechanics I mean everything from compliance to the exchange handbook of practice) I have an advantage....that advantage may not be useful every day but the cumulative effect of having that knowledge and experience is that on a given day (like today)....I pretty much know what is going to happen and how to trade it....as compared with you watching and say "gee I'm not at all sure what to do here"...

 

And again so everyone gets my meaning....I have no underlying interest except to put you on the right track....I think I have made that clear....You can't buy experience.....you can't buy knowledge obtained over many years of professional practice....YOU CAN however use your common sense....don't trade if you don't have the right tools or an understanding that works for the conditions you see in front of you....watch, take notes and pay your dues that way, instead of losing money....in your place I would simply go the exchange archives and starting doing your research....if and when you find presentations that seem to add value to your approach, go find that person and start networking.....ask for other references of folks who trade that way or who are experts in the approach that you favor....and there's nothing wrong with sim trading....its all about how you use that tool....I tell students to sim trade as long as they think it will help them with trade selection, entries, management of risk and exits...

 

Best of luck to you

Steve

 

I'll offer one more comment here, maybe its the wrong thing to do but hey I'll take the chance

My blog is "stevesfuturesforum on BlogSpot....and I posted my charts for today's trade there....I think they are timestamped...and if you look at what they show you...you can see a little bit of what I am doing (and thinking)....as with all these kinds of displays, I can't do it in real time and still trade effectively....there has to be a lag between my recognition of the opportunity, my action and then my preparing the chart to transmit and putting in some commentary....there is currently no other way to handle it.....there may be something of value for you there.

Edited June 25, 2013 by steve46

[humbled 10]

As mentioned in our previous conversation, it is difficult to obtain good (useful) practical education about trading, especially about intraday trading. The is true because those who know the markets in this very specialized way are hesitant to transmit that information freely....

 

As a result most folks try to obtain that information by a combination of 1) acute observation of market conditions and 2) various resources usually found at the exchanges including their archives of presentations by skilled practitioners of Market Profile, Value Analytics, and Auction Market Theory

 

In addition to these resources you might want to think about this point....to the extent that I know certain things about the mechanics (and by mechanics I mean everything from compliance to the exchange handbook of practice) I have an advantage....that advantage may not be useful every day but the cumulative effect of having that knowledge and experience is that on a given day (like today)....I pretty much know what is going to happen and how to trade it....as compared with you watching and say "gee I'm not at all sure what to do here"...

 

And again so everyone gets my meaning....I have no underlying interest except to put you on the right track....I think I have made that clear....You can't buy experience.....you can't buy knowledge obtained over many years of professional practice....YOU CAN however use your common sense....don't trade if you don't have the right tools or an understanding that works for the conditions you see in front of you....watch, take notes and pay your dues that way, instead of losing money....in your place I would simply go the exchange archives and starting doing your research....if and when you find presentations that seem to add value to your approach, go find that person and start networking.....ask for other references of folks who trade that way or who are experts in the approach that you favor....and there's nothing wrong with sim trading....its all about how you use that tool....I tell students to sim trade as long as they think it will help them with trade selection, entries, management of risk and exits...

 

Best of luck to you

Steve

 

Steve,

 

 

Thank you for the advice . Plenty to study when I have time. Right now Thales has turned me profitable even though I have so many factors that I need to refine and define for my plan. Thank you for the suggests to approach Market Profile, ValueAnalytics , and Auction Market Theory.

 

Humbled

[steve46 12]

If it works for you that's what matters.....from your posts however it didn't seem that way today...otherwise I wouldn't have posted myself...

 

Good luck

[humbled 10]

If it works for you that's what matters.....from your posts however it didn't seem that way today...otherwise I wouldn't have posted myself...

 

Good luck

 

Steve.

 

I am shocked I am positive today. I had many moments of mental battles working to read the price action. In the end I will build rules from these experiences.

 

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

I should have had a larger gain but I "hoped" it would close higher and stalled on the exit.

 

Humbled and keeping it honest

[thalestrader 14]

Steve.

 

I am shocked I am positive today. I had many moments of mental battles working to read the price action. In the end I will build rules from these experiences.

 

 

Humbled

 

Like all who came to this game before you, you are your own worst enemy. It is good that you realize these are your battles, and your adversary is your own limit.

 

Keep this in mind: You will not win every bet. You will not finish every day positive. But so long as you are diligent in identifying S/R, and trade at those levels, either against them or through them depending upon price action, you have a fair chance of trading with a positive expectation over the long run. Once you acheive this, then you increase your size.

 

One request: Could you reduce the size of the charts you post? It is difficult for me to see where some of your levels are coming from.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Let me know if this size is better.

[thalestrader 14]

Price has had yet another gap open. This time, it gapped above 1598 resist and has been stuck between there and 1608. I would not be too quick to jump on a 123 short in the middle of nowhere. Be patient. Trade only at levels where you have reason to believe the market will "tip its hand."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

A very small pattern at a key level here at 1598 SPX

[humbled 10]

I did get stopped out but I also had to re-enter based on the 2B pattern.

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

Stopped out on a break of the low.

[humbled 10]

I saw a possible reason for short at 1598 SPX but no entry pattern,

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

Under the 1598 I now had a valid short signal and took it.

 

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

A 2b was formed just under the key level 1598. I am not sure if I should execute directly into the line but I still had the gap in my mind so I took it.

 

I am not trying to trade this much as a desire for action. I am trying to follow the only rules that I find some clarity in so far.

 

Humbled

Edited June 26, 2013 by humbled

[humbled 10]

After that confusion around the pivot I found myself unable to decide what to do any longer.

Time for a break to wait for another pivot or another day.

I am sure psych had some issue in this day as I know I had lost my confidence to some degree on my last entry.

- 9.5

Humbled

Edited June 26, 2013 by humbled

[humbled 10]

Here is a summary of my losses today and why I took the trades.

[Enigmatics 10]

Here is a summary of my losses today and why I took the trades.

 

I'll say one thing .... if you're attempting to short near lows of the day, you better be sure you're analyzing the supply/demand factor in the volume. If you don't get volume expansion to break through that level, you just going to get whipsawed .... particularly on a bullish day like we were in.

 

I actually took the opposite trade as you did and went long, but in the SPY. You see the first touch of the bottom at 11am EST. At which point some demand came in, with buy volume exeeding the previous sell off. The bounce hits the upper trend line then retraces back near the low of of the day. The key here is that it happened on much lighter sell volume then when it first touched down there at 11am. This is your classic "secondary test for remaining supply". It did not return and up the market went. Major sell volume really didn't return until late in the day after we already achieved new highs.

 

I included the chart down below. As for your long trades, can't say I understand why you took them. I personally didn't see anything viable there.

 

Edited June 26, 2013 by Enigmatics

[Enigmatics 10]

In my opinion, price-only trading can be extremely tough business for beginners. I know what it's like when you're first starting out though. There's only so much you have the ability to focus on and analyze while you're attempting to "frame" your trades. Just looking at candles seems much easier.

 

The guys who are consistently profitable doing it have a better feel for the flow of the market, it's breadth, and trend identification. Many of the beginners who start out doing it end up in trades like the first two longs you took today. The trades start out winners, but end up losers because you were on the wrong side of the market. You end up in false breakouts or breakdowns, etc. etc. etc ... I'm sure you're familiar.

 

For me personally, that's why I started investigating various forms of volume studies. I got sick and tired of candles "lying" to me.

Edited June 26, 2013 by Enigmatics

[humbled 10]

In my opinion, price-only trading can be extremely tough business for beginners. I know what it's like when you're first starting out though. There's only so much you have the ability to focus on and analyze while you're attempting to "frame" your trades. Just looking at candles seems much easier.

 

The guys who are consistently profitable doing it have a better feel for the flow of the market, it's breadth, and trend identification. Many of the beginners who start out doing it end up in trades like the first two longs you took today. The trades start out winners, but end up losers because you were on the wrong side of the market. You end up in false breakouts or breakdowns, etc. etc. etc ... I'm sure you're familiar.

 

For me personally, that's why I started investigating various forms of volume studies. I got sick and tired of candles "lying" to me.

 

Enigmatics,

 

Thank you so much for these comments. I see value in what you have to say and will review the chart now. I have a reason for not adding any additional layers beyond what Thales has shared. As a student here I am not interjecting any ideas on what I know from prior experience as I will end up where I did before- Inconsistent and with a lower account balance. This is the reason I have not added one single idea beyond the original advice Thales has supplied. I am not playing stupid to hurt anyone but to be honest, I lost for more than 5 years straight in my attempt to day trade.

 

I have put my heart and sole into trading and still could not come out consistent so at this point I am just doing what I am told. I will never be the "big thinker" trader on a macro basis as I am not an academic type of person but on a technical basis I will do what I am told until I succeed.

 

Thanks for your help. I find value in the volume chart and hope to be able to add this layer asap.

 

 

Humbled

Edited June 26, 2013 by humbled