Humbled Trading Log

[humbled 10]

Thanks Humbled. So you are making money.

 

You doubt the strategy, the entry, no confidence in it etc. Yet you're profitable.

 

And that despite not having much experience with the method, and still working on the rules and your understanding.

 

My suggestion is, give it time. Keep thinking about how to improve. Be patient and work hard. Dont' expect every trade or every day or even every week to be a winner.

 

Don't start looking for secret sauce, or changing the basics principles of what you have been given by Thales.

 

Understand that the secret sauce is experience, and it can't be rushed. But that it can be slowed down by looking at the wrong things and approaching it in the wrong way. You have been given the right approach.

 

Also if I may, stop putting problems for yourself where there aren't any. You worry about the entry, but the entry is usually fine. You worry about the method, but you're profitable and only just started trading this way! You worry about risk reward but I think I saw a +16 point winner in this journal, and your biggest loss was about 4 or 5 points.

 

 

Seeker,

 

 

You are right and I was willing to stay the course, but I was told by many I trust here including my mentor that I am missing the edge. The real edge. As the student that could not be ignored and set this issue in motion. I did not pick and choose when to trust Thales or DB or others. I followed verbatim and they lead me to this spot. If they see a problem in me I had to stop and find a way to resolve it because I don't want to fail only to be back here later asking for a lifeline.

 

That was part of the issue here. Do you listen only up to a certain point and then put on the blinders? For that reason I have stopped and I am looking to figure out how I will tackle this.

 

Humbled

[DbPhoenix 42]

I haven't followed this thread so I'm confused as to who said what to whom and who told whom to do whatever and who led whom and who followed whom. In response to your original PM to me I said that you should stop trading while trying to reconcile multiple sources of conflicting information. I also suggested that you give up the lines and candles and colors and indicators and whatever else is preventing you from seeing what's happening on the chart. I suggested further, after you provided me with your trading plan, that you find something other than the ES to trade since every professional trader on the planet trades the ES and you're not ready to compete in that arena. But if you insisted on trading the ES anyway, I suggested that you get your context from the ES, not from some other instrument -- like the SPY or the SPX -- which is only tangentially related to what you're trading. And that's as far as that went.

 

Since then, I have made two suggestions:

 

First, familiarize yourself with the auction market. You cannot succeed without doing this. I can guarantee you that each and every professional trader with whom you are competing understands it thoroughly. "Setups" will not save you. "Setups" are the consequence of trader behavior. The professionals are trading the behavior. The amateurs are trading the "setups", which is why the amateurs are so easily screwed. The 2B, 123, ACD, and every other pattern on God's green earth are nothing more than a distraction unless the trader understands what traders are doing to create those "patterns". And if he does, the patterns become irrelevant.

 

Second, study and understand the dynamics of supply and demand. Again, you cannot succeed without doing this. The Law of Supply and Demand is a law for good reason: markets cannot exist without it. If there's no demand, there's no transaction. If there's no supply, there's no transaction. If there are no transactions, there's no market. There's just a bunch of people standing around wanting to buy something they can't get and another bunch of people standing around trying to sell something that nobody wants.

 

Once you understand the nature of the auction market and the dynamics of demand and supply, you don't need to ask anybody anything, nor do you need to obey anybody's instructions. You don't need to follow anybody nor do you need to trust anyone, much less pay anybody for anything. Once you understand the nature of the auction market and the dynamics of demand and supply, the market will tell you what to do. It will tell you where to enter and where to exit, as long as you understand its language and are able and willing to set aside your ego and whatever emotional problems are interfering with your ability to hear.

 

As to this "edge" business and missing an edge and not having a real edge, I have no idea what this is all about. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular price pattern or market behavior offers a level of predictability and a risk to reward ratio that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. Without it, one is just "playing" the market in order to have something to talk about on message boards. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it. Which brings us back to hearing what the market is telling you and listening to it. If you don't know how to do the research and testing, you can start with the guidelines provided in the Wyckoff Forum (some of which I posted earlier). These will enable you to translate the market's language. If you do know how to do the research and testing, then you needn't rely on anyone but yourself to develop a trading system that will do a better job of enabling you to reach your goals than anything you can buy or copy.

Edited July 12, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[tradingwizzard 10]

Here is a view of the errors and trades I took today.

 

After a big drop I believe I my bias was to catch the turn. The truth hurts.:crap:

 

Humbled

 

funny enough, you stoped trading exactly when that triangle broke to the downside.....measured move or the thrust of it should have been the target.......keep trying

[humbled 10]

DbPhoenix,

 

I am sorry I confused you using the word "edge'.

 

All I meant to express was that once my mentor said the comment

 

The ability that you need to develop cannot be spelled out or spoken out loud in a set of instructions, and least not in a way that would be intelligible to you unless and until you develop the ability to feel the struggle for balance and power that is the market. Without that sense, there is nothing I can do to help you move any closer to your goal than you are now.

 

 

Other traders started to give advice that agreed. Even the last post you listed,

 

First, familiarize yourself with the auction market. You cannot succeed without doing this. I can guarantee you that each and every professional trader with whom you are competing understands it thoroughly. "Setups" will not save you. "Setups" are the consequence of trader behavior. The professionals are trading the behavior. The amateurs are trading the "setups", which is why the amateurs are so easily screwed. The 2B, 123, ACD, and every other pattern on God's green earth are nothing more than a distraction unless the trader understands what traders are doing to create those "patterns". And if he does, the patterns become irrelevant.

 

These comments and so many others are a clear indication that I am not on the right track right now. I did not brush these off and use selective hearing. Once Thales mentioned that I needed to have this skill, others validated it on the thread, I stopped to fix the issue. In so many words I was told, no consistency will last if I can't feel and read the pull of supply and demand.

 

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

Optiontimer,

"Understand I am very confused on what is my best course of action right now".

 

Information overload- here/everywhere.Maybe go right back to the basics..maybe you missed something.Even in the highest echelons in football every team goes out on a training field and practices the basics.Football is a simple game.Star performers are no exception and are not excluded from this.In trading terms,although we don't need to practice the basics it is very easy to lose sight of them.

 

" I can't feel higher odds on this trade compared to the last one".

 

 

"I am poking in every direction looking for a path to move forward"

 

 

Identify the-

 

Weekly highs/lows

Daily high/lows

Lower timeframe high/lows

 

 

If you think of charts as battlefields (btw bulls/bears) then in terms of strength

 

Weekly H/L's = castles

Daily H/L's = forts

Lower timeframe H/L's = trenches

 

 

How reliable/strong is support/resistance?...Castles/forts/trenches.

 

Trading 101 states that in an uptrend prev resistance becomes support and in a down trend prev support becomes resistance.

 

What i'm suggesting is that by utilizing trading 101 and assigning a probability to each category of H/L in either up/down trends,then a trading strategy/plan almost begins to write itself.....

 

Seen in these terms and having clearly marked the 3 relevant price levels described,you can easily assign a probability to any potential trade going in your favour/or not.

You also get to choose which part of the battlefield you operate on,when,and on what side.

 

And we haven't even employed any other tool at all.Just price and trend.

A professional in any field should never lose sight of the big picture or forget the basics.

 

Then when you have a clear understanding of what just happened,you have a clear picture of what must come next

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

This is fantastic sound advice. Thank you very much!

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

I want to thank all of the people who have sent me private messages of assistance. I appreciate the support as I hit a difficult trading hurdle.

I am working to do something that most fail at and so I knew in my heart of hearts that I would have to work and struggle to achieve it.

 

 

My past trading would take accounts up then down , back and forth. In the process, some accounts did gain and then others would drawdown and show me larger losses. In the end this did not payoff and I had no idea where my balance would be next. Overall, I lost money.

 

 

My goal is to produce a consistent income of 10k plus per month. One that would cover my overhead of my family. I did not need to achieve this as a get rich quick scheme, I was willing to give years and years but I knew I was asking for a lot when only using 100k or less in capital. I figured I could build. Start with 1 or 2 contracts and add one

more for every 10k in gains. Over time I imagined that even 5 ES contracts could provide this with consistency. Less than 10 points per week would allow for this target to be reached.

 

I am willing to use multiple instruments. I knew I was not fast enough to be a scalper of 1 point or 2 at a time. I also found it hard to focus that intensively for long periods of time. It stressed me out. So I was looking to do this with intraday swings. I am even willing to leave a position overnight.

 

 

After all of the recent pressure, I am going back to the basics of this plan. It was working to some degree of success. I will built on it and find a way to add the missing layers.

 

Nothing that was said fell on deaf ears.I am taking it all in finding a path from here. For those that said I always needed to find my setup on my own and built it myself, understand one core belief I had was to find someone getting the results you want and learn from them. Hence the reason I started with Thales and this thread.

 

I have private reasons why I must succeed that most cannot fathom how important they are to me. All for my family. Maybe that pressure has not helped me any so I will always need to focus some of my attention on the psychological aspects of this. I am sure that has held me back, but when I find consistency, I feel the confidence will build to clear some of this up.

 

 

Thank you to all of those that share to help!

 

Humbled

Edited July 13, 2013 by humbled

[40draws 10]

I found an interesting journal over at the other forum, and you might find it useful to you:

 

Forums - Making of a method

Edited July 13, 2013 by 40draws

[M.A 10]

I haven't followed this thread so I'm confused as to who said what to whom and who told whom to do whatever and who led whom and who followed whom.

:haha:

 

My goal is to produce a consistent income of 10k plus per month. One that would cover my overhead of my family. I did not need to achieve this as a get rich quick scheme, I was willing to give years and years but I knew I was asking for a lot when only using 100k or less in capital. I figured I could build. Start with 1 or 2 contracts and add one

more for every 10k in gains. Over time I imagined that even 5 ES contracts could provide this with consistency. Less than 10 points per week would allow for this target to be reached.

 

Realistic goals are also challenging. dun u think?

[thalestrader 14]

These comments and so many others are a clear indication that I am not on the right track right now.

 

Hi there humbled,

 

It has now been a month. What, if anything, has changed? What remains the same? What steps have you taken to align yourself with the elusive right track?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Hi there humbled,

 

It has now been a month. What, if anything, has changed? What remains the same? What steps have you taken to align yourself with the elusive right track?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Hello Thales,

 

Not trading right now. I have put in time watching time and sales and line on close charts on 1 minute but I can't say I have made any real progress. I notice some reactions that show direction for a few ticks but other than the potential for a scalp (which I am not focused on), I do not have a sense of force from the tape at this time.

 

 

Another member here has supplied me a ton of good information on an alternative method which I have been watching as well.

 

 

Thanks so much for your concern.

 

Humbled

[nikojoe 10]

Dear Sir... dunno if u can find this useful but i use this kind of forecast for the entry level...

 

I follow a free site where i can find the graph refresh every hour but cant't post the name for policy of the forum... i put the pics however. Hope you will find useful

Have a nice trading.

Nik.

[mickeybh 10]

Thales,

 

Thank you for your post. I will "drill down" closer when I get to these levels. The risk/reward was clearly better on your chart. Lesson learned.

 

In hindsight I now see my mistake at the "Prior Low". I took my first target but held on for the second target even though I now see the signal to short. When I reach a key level I must be flexible to listen to what the reaction tells me.

 

 

Here is what I was thinking:

When we hit that "Prior Low" as resistance I thought............. Maybe we will make a pullback but the trend is up on my larger charts and the big test level was a good reaction earlier. I was rigid in my thinking that the direction may have been decided already.

 

Once again thank you for the help. I am taking notes in my journal to make these adjustments.

 

Humbled, I'm just poking around and saw this thread. May I make a suggestion. You are way way to hung up on charts. I've been there done that. Support resistance, high low mid point blah blah. Analysis paralysis.

 

Go to jigsawtrading.com and nobsdyatrading.com. Read about what a market really is. How the pros trade. Simulate and practice. Take more trades. I see you journalize (I record my sessions), most important keep stats on total trades and winning per cent. If you can do 60%ish, then when you come back to live you know you bat 60. Then you won't be afraid of the market. highs lows etc are important but you have to understand what is really going on. Once I did I have become decent and still improving. I bat right at 60, and average 10 trades in a full day, still have problem areas but live now and winning every week, though I want to be a lot better.

 

Best of luck,.

[mickeybh 10]

Humbled, I'm just poking around and saw this thread. May I make a suggestion. You are way way to hung up on charts. I've been there done that. Support resistance, high low mid point blah blah. Analysis paralysis.

 

Go to jigsawtrading.com and nobsdyatrading.com. Read about what a market really is. How the pros trade. Simulate and practice. Take more trades. I see you journalize (I record my sessions), most important keep stats on total trades and winning per cent. If you can do 60%ish, then when you come back to live you know you bat 60. Then you won't be afraid of the market. highs lows etc are important but you have to understand what is really going on. Once I did I have become decent and still improving. I bat right at 60, and average 10 trades in a full day, still have problem areas but live now and winning every week, though I want to be a lot better.

 

Best of luck,.

 

 

Humbled, I just read about 5 of your posts. First let me say that Pheonix gave you good advice.

 

Listen I've been where you are. You are afraid of the market. No confidence. This is a game of numbers. The major league hitter that bats 325 is at the top, but that means he's out 675 times out of every 1000 ABs. To be at the top in this game you need 550 or better. The 45% losers have to be controlled.

 

There are no targets, lines, rules, there is just trading. Does the market rotate around various numbers sure, Is there price discovery, increase range, you bet, market profile, no question, does the market care, nope!. Why does one day the market open above yesterdays high and trade all the way down to the lows and another stays above. I don't know (some idea but dont care), but as you watch the tape you will start to see. Supply and demand, bids offers buyers sellers, you need to make sense of them and it is not easy.

 

To become a trader (and I learned the hard way too) you have to put in the time. Simulate, get you batting average up. Take trades gain the confidence, then you will become successful. I did and it is providing me with extra $$$$, and baby that's nice. Still a long way to go, but I know what I don't know (or some of at least) and now I'm trading live, making money (slow) but every hour I trade is more practice and more stats. That's my 1.5 cents.

 

If you were in the room and said trade, I'd go long or short at that moment and 60% of the time I would make money, 1 2 4 8 12 ticks but I would make money 60% of the time. That's where you have to get. Go for it.

[humbled 10]

Humbled, I just read about 5 of your posts. First let me say that Pheonix gave you good advice.

 

Listen I've been where you are. You are afraid of the market. No confidence. This is a game of numbers. The major league hitter that bats 325 is at the top, but that means he's out 675 times out of every 1000 ABs. To be at the top in this game you need 550 or better. The 45% losers have to be controlled.

 

There are no targets, lines, rules, there is just trading. Does the market rotate around various numbers sure, Is there price discovery, increase range, you bet, market profile, no question, does the market care, nope!. Why does one day the market open above yesterdays high and trade all the way down to the lows and another stays above. I don't know (some idea but dont care), but as you watch the tape you will start to see. Supply and demand, bids offers buyers sellers, you need to make sense of them and it is not easy.

 

To become a trader (and I learned the hard way too) you have to put in the time. Simulate, get you batting average up. Take trades gain the confidence, then you will become successful. I did and it is providing me with extra $$$$, and baby that's nice. Still a long way to go, but I know what I don't know (or some of at least) and now I'm trading live, making money (slow) but every hour I trade is more practice and more stats. That's my 1.5 cents.

 

If you were in the room and said trade, I'd go long or short at that moment and 60% of the time I would make money, 1 2 4 8 12 ticks but I would make money 60% of the time. That's where you have to get. Go for it.

 

 

Mickeybh,

 

 

What if I am looking to swing trade? I would like to hold for larger gains.

 

 

Humbled

[mickeybh 10]

Mickeybh,

 

 

What if I am looking to swing trade? I would like to hold for larger gains.

 

 

Humbled

 

An idea there, watch fast money on cnbc, they often talk about trades they take in the eminis. Also think about some option strategies on SPY or even the emini. When I trade options I try to sell premium as well as buy premium. One trade I do on gld is sell the weekly puts at say 131.50 and buy the 131.00s for a .10 to .15 cent net credit for two day risk. Put a stop at say 30 cents. on 100 contracts. you're risking $1,500 to make $1500ish. Max loss if market really moves fast is $3,500 (never has happened but could). This is for TWO DAYS. I've been stopped once on this trade since March. Lot's of ideas.

 

Another trade is look at the uvxy. Look at the spread between the calls at the dec exp. the 38 to 45ish. You can buy the 38 and sell the 45 for a net debit under two. That spread will widen as the price of uvxy moves up and you have plenty of time.You are effectively controlling 7 points for 1.60 or so. I'm in at 34 to 40 for 1.45. That aint bad and we'ree getting some movement hear.

 

So put some time in and think. As I write I'm letting the emini run, picked up 2.5 and it is still going up. That's the way it goes. I'll catch it on the other side.

 

Do it, you just have to be careful but just do it.

[mickeybh 10]

Humbled, how are you doing? I had two bad days Friday and Monday, but back to winning Tues and yesterday. Hoping you're doing well.