Humbled Trading Log

[humbled 10]

I was able to take a short trigger at end of Fed Talk at 1641 ES from the 1646 SPX Cash level. So far a nice trade.

[humbled 10]

Trigger to cover was higher low after long trigger near key level. This would stop the close from being at the low. I then saw another pattern so re-shorted just now. I will do screenshots tonight when my software is fixed.

 

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

A close at the low leaves me short the ES with a stop above the last swing high which is 1636 on ES and 1641.50 approx on SPX cash.

 

Risking to make very little profits if we break that level.

I am learning but not sure on stop area.

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

This is a summary image of today. I am still working to figure out this trade.

 

I believe I have followed most of the rules I have learned here. I am not perfect but trying to respect each one that I have been taught.

 

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

+16.5 ES points today. I did see 5 points room till my next point of interest but I felt the risk of giving back 75% overnight was not worth it.

 

 

Humbled

Edited June 20, 2013 by humbled

[thalestrader 14]

+16.5 ES points today. I did see 5 points room till my next point of interest but I felt the risk of giving back 75% overnight was not worth it.

 

 

Humbled

 

I was just watching the ESU trade down into the high teens, and I logged in to remind you not to get greedy. If I count correctly you are 24 ES points to the good for the first three sessions. Nice trading so far this week. This is where things tend to fall apart for many folks, so you need to be diligent and watch yourself. Keep to your routine, and remember that if you are going to come out a net winner, there is work to be done, always.

 

1) You need to continue identifying S/R before the session.

 

2) Do not trade unless you get one of your price action set ups at one of those levels.

 

3) Do not get discouraged when you give a few back - you gotta be in it to win it, as Trader Vic says.

 

4) You must place your stop, and it must be beyond an S/R level - Trader Vic says you gotta be in it to win it, but he also reminds us that we can't bet if we lose all our chips.

 

5) Most importanly, stay humble with repsect to the market and your performance.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I believe I have too many levels going into tomorrow but I am not sure which will be critical. I have highlighted all of them.

 

 

Humbled

 

You might find it beneficial to think in these terms: There are levels of potential S/R (specific swing highs and lows), and there are "zones" of potential S/R where two or more prior swing highs/lows are in close proximity to one another. If you go to the Reading Charts threa, you find a bunch of examples where I demonstrated what I refer to as zones through the use of colored rectangles.

 

It may seem simplistic, and many may disagree with me, but the most important levels any day of the week for a day trader are the prior day's high, low, and midpoint. Then you need to know where the most recent swing high and low were, and the midpoint between them. These will be your "zoom in" and your "zoom out" view.

 

Then, if the market is trading down, the areas to watch for are the prior daily lows. If the market is trading up, then the areas to watch for are the recent prior daily highs. You do not need to mark every prior high/low. You should mark the most recent in time and closest in proximity, as this will be the most likely to come into play. For example, today's low took out the prior two day's low, so you want to be aware if price trades back to test either as resistance or breaks back above and then pulls back to test either as support. You should also be watching for the next important prior low, the 1624 low from 6/14.

 

Keep your charts as clean as you can but not so void of "reminders" that you miss opportunities.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Here are my levels including zones for tomorrow.

[humbled 10]

I was just watching the ESU trade down into the high teens, and I logged in to remind you not to get greedy. If I count correctly you are 24 ES points to the good for the first three sessions. Nice trading so far this week. This is where things tend to fall apart for many folks, so you need to be diligent and watch yourself. Keep to your routine, and remember that if you are going to come out a net winner, there is work to be done, always.

 

1) You need to continue identifying S/R before the session.

 

2) Do not trade unless you get one of your price action set ups at one of those levels.

 

3) Do not get discouraged when you give a few back - you gotta be in it to win it, as Trader Vic says.

 

4) You must place your stop, and it must be beyond an S/R level - Trader Vic says you gotta be in it to win it, but he also reminds us that we can't bet if we lose all our chips.

 

5) Most importanly, stay humble with repsect to the market and your performance.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

 

Thales,

 

 

Just amazing advice as usual. Not sure how to express my gratitude. I am taking the advice to heart and working to install this belief system. All based on your teaching.

 

Your comment #4 I do struggle with. When I see a 5 point stop required to get above a zone or area I often find myself looking for a smaller range entry. I try to place it as tight to the execution pattern as I can. Not sure how to solve this other than just expanding to a wider stop.

 

 

Best Wishes to you Thales,

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

You might find it beneficial to think in these terms: There are levels of potential S/R (specific swing highs and lows), and there are "zones" of potential S/R where two or more prior swing highs/lows are in close proximity to one another. If you go to the Reading Charts threa, you find a bunch of examples where I demonstrated what I refer to as zones through the use of colored rectangles.

 

It may seem simplistic, and many may disagree with me, but the most important levels any day of the week for a day trader are the prior day's high, low, and midpoint. Then you need to know where the most recent swing high and low were, and the midpoint between them. These will be your "zoom in" and your "zoom out" view.

 

Then, if the market is trading down, the areas to watch for are the prior daily lows. If the market is trading up, then the areas to watch for are the recent prior daily highs. You do not need to mark every prior high/low. You should mark the most recent in time and closest in proximity, as this will be the most likely to come into play. For example, today's low took out the prior two day's low, so you want to be aware if price trades back to test either as resistance or breaks back above and then pulls back to test either as support. You should also be watching for the next important prior low, the 1624 low from 6/14.

 

Keep your charts as clean as you can but not so void of "reminders" that you miss opportunities.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Thales,

 

 

I have identified some zones for tomorrow for my chart. I am following the directions found in your post and will review that other thread asap.

 

 

Thanks,

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

I am not sure I am seeing this right but according to these levels we have not found any support yet. I made the right decision to not be greedy but price action might have been telling me to hold.

 

 

The market is stepping down.

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

I will show what I did later tonight and I hope to grow from this experience. The gain period is great but building consistency is all about how I handle these reversals of fortune.

 

 

 

Today was a reminder to be (Humbled)

Edited June 20, 2013 by humbled

[humbled 10]

Here is a view of the errors and trades I took today.

 

After a big drop I believe I my bias was to catch the turn. The truth hurts.:crap:

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

My levels for tomorrow. Please feel free to comment on them.

 

Humbled

[thalestrader 14]

I suggest you watch the five minute chart, and switch to the one minute or even a tick chart only as price approaches one of your levels.

 

What does Trader Vic say about gaps? A gap that doesn't fill in the first 15 minutes is unlikely to fill that day. It doesn't always work out that way, of course, but it does often enough that you should pay attention to it.

 

This is about highs and lows. As you noted after the fact, the trade was short on the rest of the 6/13 low.

 

You have everything you need to be profitable. You need to teach or habituate yourself to apply what you know consistently.

 

Keep it simple: Price gapped down and quickly reach the 6/13 low. A 123 on the one minute could have had you get long. Depending how youmanaged that trade, you could have lost as many as many as -2 or gained a doubtful +4. However, given the downside gap, it would not be unreasonable if you had taken a breakeven stop or even grabbed a point or two profit. Once price dropped below 1608, you needed to wait until a 1598 print to think about possibly getting long or a rally to 1608 from which to get short. Again, given the gap, any long should be treated as a scalp at best. What you did was take two trades in the middle of nowhere, and then you did not take the trade where price trade right back to a level you had marked before you even went to bed last night.

 

Keep it simple: Trade only when price is at a S/R level. Respect the day's trend, especially when that trend has been intact from the opening bell (and in this case, from the prior session).

 

Don't be discouraged. But don't look for new things. Just go over this thread from start to finish over and over again.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

I suggest you watch the five minute chart, and switch to the one minute or even a tick chart only as price approaches one of your levels.

 

What does Trader Vic say about gaps? A gap that doesn't fill in the first 15 minutes is unlikely to fill that day. It doesn't always work out that way, of course, but it does often enough that you should pay attention to it.

 

This is about highs and lows. As you noted after the fact, the trade was short on the rest of the 6/13 low.

 

You have everything you need to be profitable. You need to teach or habituate yourself to apply what you know consistently.

 

Keep it simple: Price gapped down and quickly reach the 6/13 low. A 123 on the one minute could have had you get long. Depending how youmanaged that trade, you could have lost as many as many as -2 or gained a doubtful +4. However, given the downside gap, it would not be unreasonable if you had taken a breakeven stop or even grabbed a point or two profit. Once price dropped below 1608, you needed to wait until a 1598 print to think about possibly getting long or a rally to 1608 from which to get short. Again, given the gap, any long should be treated as a scalp at best. What you did was take two trades in the middle of nowhere, and then you did not take the trade where price trade right back to a level you had marked before you even went to bed last night.

 

Keep it simple: Trade only when price is at a S/R level. Respect the day's trend, especially when that trend has been intact from the opening bell (and in this case, from the prior session).

 

Don't be discouraged. But don't look for new things. Just go over this thread from start to finish over and over again.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

 

 

Thales,

 

 

Thank you so much for the response. I have to apologize to you for taking your time and then dropping the ball today. I am showing my failings in glaring detail.

 

I want to mention that the largest battle is in my head as I doubt myself at each execution. I hope to build some confidence so I can select a direction for a trade without my level of doubt. I can live with the stop outs but I find the hardest aspect is the balancing of which direction to focus on. I question every entry area flopping mentally long or short at each one to try to judge correctly. Often the clarity comes after . I thought after years of reading price this might change,it has not but I am working on it diligently. I wondered if understanding waves, fibs or something else helped with this but for now I will work on the 5 minute to wait for a key area to survey.

 

I believe the 5 minute will help. When I am zoomed in I find myself focused on the identifications of every executable pattern. In doing so I am making some errors. I will adjust that tomorrow and report my results.

 

I am listening to every instruction.

 

 

(Humbled) by the help Thales has given

Edited June 21, 2013 by humbled

[thalestrader 14]

... I thought after years of reading price this might change,it has not but I am working on it diligently. I wondered if understanding waves, fibs or something else helped with this but for now I will work on the 5 minute to wait for a key area to survey.

 

You set out to be a day trader. There is no easier way to do that than do trade off S/R. The hard part is forcing yourself to wait for price to get to an S/R level, and losing sight of the overall context, e.g. has there been a gap, is price trending from the open, or has it been tight and choppy, is th eintermediate trend up or down, etc. and so on.

 

Keep it simple - trade smart today.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

So far SPX opened with a rally right into your 1598 level and its been more or less straight down ever since. Just took out May's low and closing in on 1576, the 2007 high. Below there we should look at the March 1570 high, and below that, the 1536-40 area. Don't be in a hurry to buy support levels or close shorts early. If support breaks, you should immediately consider it potential resistance, and add to shorts on a test or initiate new shorts.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

As noted, price broke yesterday's low, and then approached the 1576 previous all-time high level, hovered just above it, and has since rallied back to test yesterday's low. You can also draw a downward sloping trendline from today's high. I would exit shorts if that trendline is broken, and I would look to hold my shorts if price remains under yesterday's low.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Trendline is broken, and price back above yesterday's low, so taking profits on the shorts would be in order.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Here is what I have done so far today. I am sitting in cash right now. I had a few execution issues and will follow up this post with a few questions

 

After that I will respond to the comments from Thales.

[humbled 10]

Thales,

 

 

If you don't mind I have to ask you a few quick items.

 

#1. Will you allow a 5+ point stop on a trade if needed to move the stop over the key level?

 

#2. When you are using SPX for evaluation and ES for entry, the charts often do not match the exact swing structure. Do you move to the ES and accept its swing high level or do you have to monitor the SPX and try to match up for a stop.

 

#3. I have found some issues trying to execute on IB ,one of which has to do with manual order entry on the quote page. It's a real struggle to enter and place stops. I made an error in a limit and missed. My fault. I will setup with my Ninja license unless you suggest differently.

 

Humbled

[thalestrader 14]

Thales,

 

 

If you don't mind I have to ask you a few quick items.

 

#1. Will you allow a 5+ point stop on a trade if needed to move the stop over the key level?

 

#2. When you are using SPX for evaluation and ES for entry, the charts often do not match the exact swing structure. Do you move to the ES and accept its swing high level or do you have to monitor the SPX and try to match up for a stop.

 

#3. I have found some issues trying to execute on IB ,one of which has to do with manual order entry on the quote page. It's a real struggle to enter and place stops. I made an error in a limit and missed. My fault. I will setup with my Ninja license unless you suggest differently.

 

Humbled

 

Stops are based on S/R, and the size of the stop will depend both on the volatility of the market and how facile you are with your entries. A 5 point stop is $250 - can you afford to risk $250 on a trade? If yes, trade one contract, if no, do not take the trade. Over time, a larger, properly placed stop, assuming it is properly placed, will save you mcuh more than the accumulated losses will cost you.

 

I will usually add a few ticks to the ES swing initially for a stop. I often enter at market based upon what the SPX is doing. Make sure you are using real time data for your SPX feed. I think IB's is delayed unless you "pay" a few extra dollars a month. The cash will, in my opinion, offer a more accurate view of the market.

 

You are on your own with respect to trading platforms and software. You might want to set up an IB paperr trade account and play with the the settings there first, and then duplicate them in your trading account. I sometimes go months without logging into Ninjatrader, and then I'll go months at a time using nothing but Ninjatrader. Bottom line - you need to learn and be comfortable with whatever software you are using to connect you and your money to the market.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Thales,

 

Thank you for those responses. I can handle that loss. I am used to much worse.

 

I will work on the execution setup this weekend.

 

I was wondering if that large long signal was valid a the low today. I marked the area on my chart.

 

Please let me know. Based on your intraday comments I am reviewing now it looks like a skip.

 

 

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

I took a short at a key area here on 1596 SPX not sure about the time left but it was a good chance if we dropped into the close. The pattern was very clear. I covered due to time.

 

 

 

Humbled

Edited June 21, 2013 by humbled