Humbled Trading Log

[thalestrader 14]

These are my levels for 6/13/2013

 

I will be using the comments here along with what I have already shared to trade at these key levels. It will not be an overnight change as many of these ideas are fresh to me but progress is all I can ask for.

 

Good. Now make sure you keep those marked through today's close so that you will be able to look back and see how price acted if it trades to those levels.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Also, there is a up trending demand line from the November 2012 low which has just survived, for now, its fifth test.

 

Price traded below yesterday's low, but never gave a sell sign before traded back above it.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I'm long. If this morning's low holds, and the cash close back above 1623, I'll hold for overnight to see if there is follow through. A close above 1623 would, I think, open the door for a retest of 1687, and possibly a shot at 1700 +/-. Conversely, a close below 1597 could, as you noted, open the door to lower prices in the near term.

 

The test of the up trending demand line, and the quick trade back above yesterday's low should have put you on watch for long opportunities, right? That doesn't mean that price cannot reverse sharply lower at anytime and take me out ('tis what a stop loss if for) but you have to play the odds. Odds can only be in your favor when price is responding to an S/R level.

 

I'll see you back here tonight.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

I took one trade this morning. I might have jumped the gun on the exit but let me share what I did. I wonder now if I should have held to target with a stop at my cost or at the original spot.

 

 

I made this trade on a 123 above the "Prior Low" level. I had a technical reason to exit but it was not at marked level. I might have been better just leaving my stop and letting the target hit or take the loss. Something I need to learn.

 

 

Humbled

[steve46 12]

We are still long from the open

 

Attached please find our morning chart showing two (2) entries off the open

 

The second chart shows the current status of our positions.

 

The close of Euro Cash markets (8:30am PST) is what determines whether we stay or go on with current positions......I have no problem with folks looking a price "action" but understand that the institutions that have the horsepower to move markets use an entirely different logic to dictate their actions...

 

Hope I haven't offended anyone

 

Best of luck folks

[steve46 12]

I think this is as simple as one can make it

 

The Bollinger bands are used by my students...I call them "training wheels"..

 

the volume is simply an aggregate display using a square wave.....

 

While technical analysis is important, I prefer to bet on plain old human nature....knowing what my fellow human beings are likely to do in a given circumstance...today they "squeezed" the prior short inventory. The chart shows the previous inventory placement and the lower purple rectangle shows the Euro market open and IB....THIS is the logic that seems to provide consistency to my approach...

Edited June 13, 2013 by steve46

[thalestrader 14]

I took one trade this morning. I might have jumped the gun on the exit but let me share what I did. I wonder now if I should have held to target with a stop at my cost or at the original spot.

 

 

I made this trade on a 123 above the "Prior Low" level. I had a technical reason to exit but it was not at marked level. I might have been better just leaving my stop and letting the target hit or take the loss. Something I need to learn.

 

 

Humbled

 

1) Your entry was fine. I also bought some there.

 

2) Targets for a long would be Tueday's low and then yesterday's high.

 

3) You would have been right to raise your stop after price made a new high subsequent to that pullback.

 

4) You say you had a "technical reason" to close your long, which was the breaka of an upward sloping trendline, or demand line. Using such lines intraday is fine - DbPhoenix has demonstrated time and again that they can be used to great effect. However, you must be consistent in your use of them, e.g. clearly today is now a day for long trades. Why, having used a demand line breaak to close your initial long did you not track price and use the break of the ensuing supply line to re-establsih a long position?

 

You need a plan which you apply consistently - otherwise you are just making up as you go along and your results will be as inconsistent as your approach.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Targets for a long would be Tueday's low and then yesterday's high.

 

SPX is now back to Tueday's low (which, as you recall, was a level on our watch for yesterday). If price can break and hold above Tueday's low, and should cash close above Tuesday's low, then as I mentioned this morning, I will hold overnight for potential follow through testing yesterday's high.

 

Overall, so long as price holds above last Thursday's 1598 low on a closing basis, the odds favor a re-test of the 5/22 1687 high.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

PS ES is up 10+ points from the entry level indicated by the cash index.

[thalestrader 14]

Good to see you back, Thales!

 

Good comment as always...

 

The above link seems to have gone missing from the post.

 

Take care,

 

fxT

 

Good to hear from you Andre! I can't seem to find that chart now, and I have no idea what happened to the link. It was an ES chart posted in the Reading Charts thread. I'll post it again if I find it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

We are still long from the open

 

Attached please find our morning chart showing two (2) entries off the open

 

The second chart shows the current status of our positions.

 

The close of Euro Cash markets (8:30am PST) is what determines whether we stay or go on with current positions......I have no problem with folks looking a price "action" but understand that the institutions that have the horsepower to move markets use an entirely different logic to dictate their actions...

 

Hope I haven't offended anyone

 

Best of luck folks

 

Super work Steve46. You have not offended anyone and thank you for posting. I am reviewing now. I do not understand your method but I am a student of the market and I appreciate the sharing.

[steve46 12]

Thank you

 

Here is another chart showing the previous close of Euro Cash Markets.....Notice how price reacts as it tests that price point.....The Euro market is very important to traders and a significant input to my decision making process. By the way, nothing "simpler" than using a trend line....it seems to me that is the ultimate in simplicity.....and a good starting point if you want to de-clutter your charts...I agree with Thales comments....

 

Best of luck to you

 

Steve

Edited June 13, 2013 by steve46

[humbled 10]

1) Your entry was fine. I also bought some there.

 

2) Targets for a long would be Tueday's low and then yesterday's high.

 

3) You would have been right to raise your stop after price made a new high subsequent to that pullback.

 

4) You say you had a "technical reason" to close your long, which was the breaka of an upward sloping trendline, or demand line. Using such lines intraday is fine - DbPhoenix has demonstrated time and again that they can be used to great effect. However, you must be consistent in your use of them, e.g. clearly today is now a day for long trades. Why, having used a demand line breaak to close your initial long did you not track price and use the break of the ensuing supply line to re-establsih a long position?

 

You need a plan which you apply consistently - otherwise you are just making up as you go along and your results will be as inconsistent as your approach.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Thales ,

 

Now you are on to something else I need to work on. I need to formulate a complete rule set as I am fighting internally to decide in real time which is better. In hindsight I feel I should have trailed the stop up to the next higher low point as protection and held for the target. The "R" would have made it worthwhile. I believe my entry was right. My management was wrong as I lack clarity on my plan. I am currently reading the Trader Vic books and used those recent lessons for both the entry and the exit as I figured I would respect both signals I had learned.

 

The good news is this is a new problem viewed on this thread so I can put this at the top of the list to work on as well.

 

Thanks again for the assistance. I am listening to every word and adjusting as I can.

 

Humbled

[steve46 12]

Okay so this will be my last post for this thread. Sorry but I realized a long while back that the more I do this (post) the more it distracts me from my primary job (trading this market).

 

Looking at the attached chart what interests me is the way price reacts as it tests the previous Euro Session Close of Cash.....there are many reasons why this happens and I don't have the time to go into the details....simply wanted to point it out...

 

Also note that once price moves back into a previous range, it is often the case that it will traverse the IB and test the other extreme....this is very basic. So there are a couple of things to consider....first, once you have enough game to recognize viable entries, you still have to learn to manage the trade and to hold long enough to fully exploit the opportunity. How can you do that unless you know (or have some knowledge of) how participants move markets? The answer is you can't and THAT is why I read comments including just know in a previous post, about not knowing whether to hold or get out....and using a trend line for that purpose....Its fine by me, as long as you are willing to leave money on the table based on that ignorance...

 

For the record, I ask students to always take profits if they hit a ten point winner....I call it my "windfall" rule....once they leave my class however, they are expected to put their knowledge (of market logic) to good use and hold as long as they see potential for profit...the general rule is "when you have a winner, be aggressive, let it run"

 

Seeya

[thalestrader 14]

1) Your entry was fine. I also bought some there.

 

2) Targets for a long would be Tueday's low and then yesterday's high.

 

Closed during the test of yesterday's high with 25 ES points ... not a bad day trade. Didn't buy the low or sell the high, but came close enough to give some credibility to this S/R thing, right?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Okay so this will be my last post for this thread. Sorry but I realized a long while back that the more I do this (post) the more it distracts me from my primary job (trading this market).

 

Looking at the attached chart what interests me is the way price reacts as it tests the previous Euro Session Close of Cash.....there are many reasons why this happens and I don't have the time to go into the details....simply wanted to point it out...

 

Also note that once price moves back into a previous range, it is often the case that it will traverse the IB and test the other extreme....this is very basic. So there are a couple of things to consider....first, once you have enough game to recognize viable entries, you still have to learn to manage the trade and to hold long enough to fully exploit the opportunity. How can you do that unless you know (or have some knowledge of) how participants move markets? The answer is you can't and THAT is why I read comments including just know in a previous post, about not knowing whether to hold or get out....and using a trend line for that purpose....Its fine by me, as long as you are willing to leave money on the table based on that ignorance...

 

For the record, I ask students to always take profits if they hit a ten point winner....I call it my "windfall" rule....once they leave my class however, they are expected to put their knowledge (of market logic) to good use and hold as long as they see potential for profit...the general rule is "when you have a winner, be aggressive, let it run"

 

Seeya

 

 

 

Steve46,

 

I am so glad you have this figured out. I can honestly say I have not! (NOT EVEN CLOSE) That is why I started this thread. I am also somewhat happy about the fact that I made this error today for all to see. I hope that something good will come of it. Maybe I can now develop a reason to adjust and define a better method and plan so I can stop doing these things hidden for only my own eyes to see.

 

 

Thanks for your input. I am not sure how you trade the market but I will look at some point when I fix a few of these errors.

 

Thank you very much for your time.

[humbled 10]

I sat for the rest of the day today reviewing the error I made.

 

In hindsight I see no better entry during real time hours near the price I bought. It was correct. The exit was a small signal from my recent reading on Trader Vic and due to "R" should have been risked to go for higher levels. I exited in the middle of a zone. The question is what will I formulate to move forward and keep growing from these mistakes.

 

 

I left with more money in my account than I started but I really don't want it. A steady equity curve is my only focus and so far this thread shows my level of inconsistency. This is what I wanted to share in the desire to fix my day trading.

 

Now I will adjust my rules based on suggestions and a plan I will build from this learning.

 

Humbled (again and again)

[steve46 12]

Okay then, with regard to your comment to me

 

My advice (take with a grain of salt) ....if at the end of the day, you can say that you are moving a little closer to your goal(s), and you have learned something, then it seems to me you are doing just fine....be patient.

 

Good luck

[humbled 10]

Closed during the test of yesterday's high with 25 ES points ... not a bad day trade. Didn't buy the low or sell the high, but came close enough to give some credibility to this S/R thing, right?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

 

Thales,

 

You earned it and I had the entry to join you on most of that. Management was my issue.

Now I must work to develop a plan. Your assistance is so valuable, I cannot thank you enough. I have read probably over 1,000 posts you have made and I feel the info you share will allow me to turn that corner.

 

 

Right now I am still in the stage of collecting concepts here on how to read price as well as making adjustments in my thinking. Once all of this data is collected and I see these suggestions stack up I can form a plan to trade these with.

 

I feel today's reaction areas were good so this is an improvement.

 

I think I am in the right direction even though right now inconsistency is still running the show.

 

Thank you again and again ......

 

(Humbled)

[thalestrader 14]

I need to learn how to become consistent on a weekly or monthly basis.

 

Become consistent on a daily basis, and the long run returns will necessarily follow.

 

You do not need to trade everyday. Wait for price to set itself up at a predetermined S/R level, and then await your trigger. Ask your spouse to refrain from asking you how the day went - it will put pressure on you to perform on a daily basis. Your ability to refrain from trading in unfavorable conditions must not be undermined by external pressure to "make your day's wage."

 

You do not need to trade many times each day. If you manage to take a position early in the session which is near the session low/high, trail a stop - trend days do not happen everyday, or even every week. When you are fortunate enough to have caught a wave early, ride it until it runs into real resistence.

 

Remember that a 123 is indistinguishable from a simple ABC or two-legged correction at the moment it triggers. Therefore, you want to enter only on those 123's that are launching from a predetermined S/R level. Trade only when you have an edge.

 

Price action from moment to moment is largely random. If price is moving from a test of support to a test of resistance, it matters not how it gets there. That big space in the middle is literally the middle of no where. Price spends most of its time there. In general, you have no edge there, so do not trade there. Price action's randomness decreases immensely when price trades to a prior high or low, and it diminishes even more if price has been in a discernible long-term trend. You should trade at those times when price is most likely to make a non-random move.

 

You must give your spouse a monthly PnL from your broker. She should be able to log in and download this herself. Many folks post to trading forums about the need to be accountable. If you are married, you have a built in auditor - use her, and make sure she can perform her function independently of you, i.e. she should not rely upon you to provide performance data, she can get it herself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Become consistent on a daily basis, and the long run returns will necessarily follow.

 

You do not need to trade everyday. Wait for price to set itself up at a predetermined S/R level, and then await your trigger. Ask your spouse to refrain from asking you how the day went - it will put pressure on you to perform on a daily basis. Your ability to refrain from trading in unfavorable conditions must not be undermined by external pressure to "make your day's wage."

 

You do not need to trade many times each day. If you manage to take a position early in the session which is near the session low/high, trail a stop - trend days do not happen everyday, or even every week. When you are fortunate enough to have caught a wave early, ride it until it runs into real resistence.

 

Remember that a 123 is indistinguishable from a simple ABC or two-legged correction at the moment it triggers. Therefore, you want to enter only on those 123's that are launching from a predetermined S/R level. Trade only when you have an edge.

 

Price action from moment to moment is largely random. If price is moving from a test of support to a test of resistance, it matters not how it gets there. That big space in the middle is literally the middle of no where. Price spends most of its time there. In general, you have no edge there, so do not trade there. Price action's randomness decreases immensely when price trades to a prior high or low, and it diminishes even more if price has been in a discernible long-term trend. You should trade at those times when price is most likely to make a non-random move.

 

You must give your spouse a monthly PnL from your broker. She should be able to log in and download this herself. Many folks post to trading forums about the need to be accountable. If you are married, you have a built in auditor - use her, and make sure she can perform her function independently of you, i.e. she should not rely upon you to provide performance data, she can get it herself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

 

Thales,

 

Not one of these items you listed are an issue for me. My wife is supportive and never asks as she believes I am the hardest working person. I will start to include her. I will keep working UNTIL I get it. I owe it to my family and have more reasons than I can possibly share here.

 

 

 

Thank you for sharing and I look forward to learning from more examples.

 

Humbled

 

 

P.S. If you have any suggestions on management that would help. When to move a stop for example. Your teachings have focused on placing the stop a few ticks on the other side of the support or resistance level and a 123 but I am not sure when to adjust.

Edited June 14, 2013 by humbled

[humbled 10]

These are the areas I will be reacting to for today.I will update if and when I take a trade at these areas.

 

Humbled

[humbled 10]

For today 6/14/2013 I am looking to use all of the information I have learned from this thread so far. I am posting a chart of my initial plan that I am looking at for today.

 

I have marked 3 potential trade areas and here is my plan as of this moment.

 

1. If price takes the resistance at #1 I will look for a trigger to take me to the next resistance cluster.

 

2. If price breaches the #2 resistance area and stalls, I will look for a trigger back under this level for a retracement to the next support at #3

 

Here is my worry about #2

((This is a retracement my guess so longs might be better. I will be quicker to cover against the trend and more forgiving with longs than shorts.))

 

3. I will cover if short at a minimum at #3 and look to go long near this level as a higher low after daily support has held the swing.

 

 

Please comment on if my thoughts are in the right direction.

 

Humbled

[thalestrader 14]

For today 6/14/2013 I am looking to use all of the information I have learned from this thread so far. I am posting a chart of my initial plan that I am looking at for today.

 

I have marked 3 potential trade areas and here is my plan as of this moment.

 

1. If price takes the resistance at #1 I will look for a trigger to take me to the next resistance cluster.

 

2. If price breaches the #2 resistance area and stalls, I will look for a trigger back under this level for a retracement to the next support at #3

 

Here is my worry about #2

((This is a retracement my guess so longs might be better. I will be quicker to cover against the trend and more forgiving with longs than shorts.))

 

3. I will cover if short at a minimum at #3 and look to go long near this level as a higher low after daily support has held the swing.

 

 

Please comment on if my thoughts are in the right direction.

 

Humbled

 

Sounds good. Be patient and wait for clear indications of price's intention. Beware of choppy price action with overlap. When price is at or near one of your levels, then it is ok to drill down on a one minute or even a tick chart to see what is going on and to see if you can find an ealry entry. Once in a trade, switch back to the 5 and 15 minute charts. Trail you stop beneath pullback lows after price makes a new high.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[humbled 10]

Thales,

Be patient and wait for clear indications of price's intention. Beware of choppy price action with overlap.

 

I will look for choppy overlap with a discretionary eye but at this moment other than a trigger, I am not sure how to define a "clear indication". I simply look for the trigger to occur on the the conditions I listed in my plan and then I fire away.

 

Learning every moment,

 

Humbled

 

P.S. I sent you a private message as well. Can't thank you enough.

[thalestrader 14]

Thales,

 

 

I will look for choppy overlap with a discretionary eye but at this moment other than a trigger, I am not sure how to define a "clear indication". I simply look for the trigger to occur on the the conditions I listed in my plan and then I fire away.

 

Learning every moment,

 

Humbled

 

P.S. I sent you a private message as well. Can't thank you enough.

 

Price opening in a tight range and staying there for 5 - 60 minutes and then breaking out of that range is a clear indication that price might be ready to favor the direction of the breakout.

 

For example, 1630-27.25 for fifteen minutes, and now I'm Long ES 30.25, stop below today's session low. I'll be watching for reversal at yesterday's 1633.50 high, or a break and hold above yesterday's high. Above yesterday's high, my target becomes the 6/10 high (42.50 basis ESU).

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales