How I Trade As If Price Is Random

[steve46 12]

CBOE controls ALL OPTIONS ON THE S&P500 AND THE VIX....here are the citations folks;

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

CBOE shutdown: Options exchange opens again - CBS News

 

CBOE Says 'Fully Confident' Software Bug Resolved

 

“Last Thursday's software problems forced CBOE to delay opening its markets for more than three hours Thursday, leaving investors unable to trade in contracts linked to market benchmarks like the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index and the CBOE's own Volatility Index, or VIX.”

 

CBOE dark for much of day due to software glitch | Reuters

 

Option Block 240: Questions Linger After CBOE Shutdown - THE OPTIONS INSIDER - News with Social Confidence - PASSFAIL.com

 

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

For options to be "fungible"....they have to have several things going...first they have to have identical contract terms, and second they have to have (at a minimum) dual listing approval....If you happen to be trading SPX or VIX options, because they are exclusive to the CBOE, during the outage, you couldn't buy or sell those options....period...

 

Apparently every journalist "got it wrong"....

 

As for you Dude, if at some point you decide to take a break from rolling joints, you might find yourself able to think more clearly....no worries man, I understand how important it is for kid your age to look cool....

Edited May 5, 2013 by steve46

[TheDude 10]

CBOE controls ALL OPTIONS ON THE S&P500 AND THE VIX....here are the citations folks;

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

CBOE shutdown: Options exchange opens again - CBS News

 

CBOE Says 'Fully Confident' Software Bug Resolved

 

“Last Thursday's software problems forced CBOE to delay opening its markets for more than three hours Thursday, leaving investors unable to trade in contracts linked to market benchmarks like the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index and the CBOE's own Volatility Index, or VIX.”

 

CBOE dark for much of day due to software glitch | Reuters

 

Option Block 240: Questions Linger After CBOE Shutdown - THE OPTIONS INSIDER - News with Social Confidence - PASSFAIL.com

 

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

For options to be "fungible"....they have to have several things going...first they have to have identical contract terms, and second they have to have (at a minimum) dual listing approval....If you happen to be trading SPX or VIX options, because they are exclusive to the CBOE, during the outage, you couldn't buy or sell those options....period...

 

Apparently every journalist "got it wrong"....

 

As for you Dude, if at some point you decide to take a break from rolling joints, you might find yourself able to think more clearly....no worries man, I understand how important it is for kid your age to look cool....

 

Dont be a dork. You continue to embarrass yourself.

 

I quite clearly stated that you could trade ES options on Globex as a DIRTY hedge. i.e. you wouldnt be 'screwed' as you say you would be. Same for VIX.

 

The point is you ramble on about hedging like you know something, yet it is clear to EVERYONE you in fact know f'k all about f'k all.

 

Eitherway, it detracts from the thread title, and is probably quite boring for the other readers. With that in mind, I will leave this alone now. Luckily, other readers can make their own minds up if they want to go on your silly course, or buy one of DBP stoopid ebooks.

 

I have better things to do than educate shills.

[TheDude 10]

Talk about pots and kettles :rofl:

 

Why did you stop selling your ebooks?

 

I imagine it was because everyone realised it was just the same old wyckoff stuff padded out that they can buy on Amazon?

 

Why did you leave T2W BTW?

 

Same for Elite Trader?

 

Where next? BMT? FXF?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Why did you stop selling your ebooks?

 

I didn't. Thanks for bringing it up. Between you and Tams, who needs an agent?

[TheDude 10]

So you should have a big golden C for CLOWN Vendor on your user name to warn everyone you are just another shill right?

[DbPhoenix 42]

So you should have a big golden C for CLOWN Vendor on your user name to warn everyone you are just another shill right?

 

I'm not doing the vending.

 

But you go right ahead. You're doing just fine without me.

[steve46 12]

Okay then....back to the subject at hand and for those who are interested in learning something of value.

 

Systemic risk is associated with breakdowns in the "system", and that means the connection, the systematic execution of transactions and everything short of each person's computer.

 

If you trade, periodically you want to make sure that you know WHERE those breakdowns might occur....because (as with the CBOE options problem) its the risks that you don't anticipate (because you don't know they exist) that can hurt you...its that simple....

 

I think that's a good farewell post..

 

Good luck folks

Edited May 5, 2013 by steve46

[Ammeo 10]

My answer to this thread will be "i never trade when the price or performance is random"..

Trading randomness is equivalent to gambling.

[equtrader 10]

Trading randomness is equivalent to gambling.

 

But many gamblers in the markets make money, many more than systematic traders according to this analysis and provided it is correct.

[forexpipcatcher 10]

But many gamblers in the markets make money, many more than systematic traders according to this analysis and provided it is correct.

 

You're kidding right?

Since the market is random and not systematic due to it being a population very little people make CONSISTENT profit. They only make money in demo and in their heads. The market is no different to a casino, the majority lose and someone wins is it always the same one? No except the casino they always get their few percent cut no matter who wins!

[SIUYA 11]

You're kidding right?

Since the market is random and not systematic due to it being a population very little people make CONSISTENT profit. They only make money in demo and in their heads. The market is no different to a casino, the majority lose and someone wins is it always the same one? No except the casino they always get their few percent cut no matter who wins!

 

Hello forexpipcatcher, welcome to TL

 

with this statement i assume you think the market is random, and hence I would like to ask - why trade?

If its random you cannot outperform the passive returns a market will give you over the long term.....

 

As for the linked thread, this just shows that some people will outperform a market even if their trades are random, while there is still a fair percentage that will actually make money, but the trade off boils down to passive v active trading/management.

I got the impression from your answer that for you the answer is about consistency despite the fact/evidence/probability that there will be some people who make money regardless of who they do it.

[forexpipcatcher 10]

Hello forexpipcatcher, welcome to TL

 

with this statement i assume you think the market is random, and hence I would like to ask - why trade?

If its random you cannot outperform the passive returns a market will give you over the long term.....

 

As for the linked thread, this just shows that some people will outperform a market even if their trades are random, while there is still a fair percentage that will actually make money, but the trade off boils down to passive v active trading/management.

I got the impression from your answer that for you the answer is about consistency despite the fact/evidence/probability that there will be some people who make money regardless of who they do it.

 

I don't think it's random I know its random from a mathematical point of view, regardless what you think or I or anyone else thinks.

There will always be someone who outperforms the market at any instance in which I've already stated that like the example of a casino, the thing is it will not always be the same person or body.

 

Here's the trick Siuya, put yourself on the other side of the fence, if someone was trading with you as the broker and liquidator and was making money consistently what would it do to your bank account and fortune? What will you do to accommodate this?

What if this person was making lots and lots from you? What will you do? Sit there like a dummy and lose all your daddy's money? Or perhaps you have a counter to this person/body making so much from you?

I will let you on a little piece of info with no names mentioned... this was happening to a broker last year and the broker simply altered the MT4 lol, I'm not going into more/any details, this was the only way to ensure not much money is made from the trader. At the end of the month the balance of any broker needs to be positive otherwise they are losing money and declining and soon will go bankrupt.

 

However, if the broker is making hundreds of thousands a month and losing 10k a month for you or another that's ok to them because the NET worth of the broker is positive, cashflow is positive so no problem.

This is a business to the broker not a hobby and if they don't make money means they are losing money.

 

The issue with speculators on forums is they look at the point of view of a trader only and hardly ever look at the brokers point of view to understand the business sense of the whole picture.

 

I will leave you with a fact.... the best trader(system) in the world is hedge funds which only make about 30%p.a at best. That is your measuring stone. The rest are fiction... today some trader makes 5k and tomorrow or next month they blew a 20k account etc.

 

You do want consistency which will need incorporated a very good MM and a well supporting your trading habits. Now last thing is you seem to think many will outperform the market right? lol mathematically here is something to think about I'm going to assume a 50% chance of winning a trade right? Which is extremely high and doesn't exist... if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning for an UNBIAS SYSTEM, so imagine taking 100 trades.

 

Now does anyone want to know how to make money from a casino to beat the odds? But if you get banned don't blame me lol (P.S it is legal and they will change the rules if they observe you doing it, how do I know this? They did it to me! . This will happen!)

If you want a similar system in trading do come and ask me.

I'm just a mathematician!

Edited May 8, 2013 by forexpipcatcher

[SIUYA 11]

I don't think it's random I know its random from a mathematical point of view, regardless what you think or I or anyone else thinks.

There will always be someone who outperforms the market at any instance in which I've already stated that like the example of a casino, the thing is it will not always be the same person or body.

 

Here's the trick Siuya, put yourself on the other side of the fence, if someone was trading with you as the broker and liquidator and was making money consistently what would it do to your bank account and fortune? What will you do to accommodate this?

What if this person was making lots and lots from you? What will you do? Sit there like a dummy and lose all your daddy's money? Or perhaps you have a counter to this person/body making so much from you?

I will let you on a little piece of info with no names mentioned... this was happening to a broker last year and the broker simply altered the MT4 lol, I'm not going into more/any details, this was the only way to ensure not much money is made from the trader. At the end of the month the balance of any broker needs to be positive otherwise they are losing money and declining and soon will go bankrupt.

 

However, if the broker is making hundreds of thousands a month and losing 10k a month for you or another that's ok to them because the NET worth of the broker is positive, cashflow is positive so no problem.

This is a business to the broker not a hobby and if they don't make money means they are losing money.

 

The issue with speculators on forums is they look at the point of view of a trader only and hardly ever look at the brokers point of view to understand the business sense of the whole picture.

 

I will leave you with a fact.... the best trader(system) in the world is hedge funds which only make about 30%p.a at best. That is your measuring stone. The rest are fiction... today some trader makes 5k and tomorrow or next month they blew a 20k account etc.

 

You do want consistency which will need incorporated a very good MM and a well supporting your trading habits. Now last thing is you seem to think many will outperform the market right? lol mathematically here is something to think about I'm going to assume a 50% chance of winning a trade right? Which is extremely high and doesn't exist... if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning for an UNBIAS SYSTEM, so imagine taking 100 trades.

 

Now does anyone want to know how to make money from a casino to beat the odds? But if you get banned don't blame me lol (P.S it is legal and they will change the rules if they observe you doing it, how do I know this? They did it to me! . This will happen!)

If you want a similar system in trading do come and ask me.

I'm just a mathematician!

 

The question is why trade if you think the market is random - as a mathematician you should know this. You may as well just be a passive investor - this is central to the debate about random markets.

It has nothing to do with if your broker is supposedly ripping you off because half the time they have nothing to do with any of it. If you are going to qualify your discussion about the bucket shops mainly in FX that are set up purely for this, and are essentially market making against you in the aim that most will blow up and they keep your account - yes this happens but whats this to do with randomness and markets - the OP is in the equities indexes?

 

Plus your maths --- what is that for?

You say....

if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning for an UNBIAS SYSTEM, so imagine taking 100 trades.

should you be saying.....

if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning 5 times in a row.

what about the old risk reward part of it?

 

As for casinos - I have no interest in a game whereby even if you can beat them you will loose regardless of how you do it -

 

I would suggest you start a thread here on TL, reveal it to everyone. :missy:

[Seeker 11]

I don't think it's random I know its random from a mathematical point of view, regardless what you think or I or anyone else thinks.

There will always be someone who outperforms the market at any instance in which I've already stated that like the example of a casino, the thing is it will not always be the same person or body.

 

Here's the trick Siuya, put yourself on the other side of the fence, if someone was trading with you as the broker and liquidator and was making money consistently what would it do to your bank account and fortune? What will you do to accommodate this?

What if this person was making lots and lots from you? What will you do? Sit there like a dummy and lose all your daddy's money? Or perhaps you have a counter to this person/body making so much from you?

I will let you on a little piece of info with no names mentioned... this was happening to a broker last year and the broker simply altered the MT4 lol, I'm not going into more/any details, this was the only way to ensure not much money is made from the trader. At the end of the month the balance of any broker needs to be positive otherwise they are losing money and declining and soon will go bankrupt.

 

However, if the broker is making hundreds of thousands a month and losing 10k a month for you or another that's ok to them because the NET worth of the broker is positive, cashflow is positive so no problem.

This is a business to the broker not a hobby and if they don't make money means they are losing money.

 

The issue with speculators on forums is they look at the point of view of a trader only and hardly ever look at the brokers point of view to understand the business sense of the whole picture.

 

I will leave you with a fact.... the best trader(system) in the world is hedge funds which only make about 30%p.a at best. That is your measuring stone. The rest are fiction... today some trader makes 5k and tomorrow or next month they blew a 20k account etc.

 

You do want consistency which will need incorporated a very good MM and a well supporting your trading habits. Now last thing is you seem to think many will outperform the market right? lol mathematically here is something to think about I'm going to assume a 50% chance of winning a trade right? Which is extremely high and doesn't exist... if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning for an UNBIAS SYSTEM, so imagine taking 100 trades.

 

Now does anyone want to know how to make money from a casino to beat the odds? But if you get banned don't blame me lol (P.S it is legal and they will change the rules if they observe you doing it, how do I know this? They did it to me! . This will happen!)

If you want a similar system in trading do come and ask me.

I'm just a mathematician!

 

Yes some brokers will resort to cheating. Others don't need to or won't.

 

Yes some of the best traders are at hedge funds, and 30% a year is spectacular gains if drawdown is low, but at what leverage is that? If they can make 30% on 1:1 leverage or 3:1, with the constraints associated with their size and the fact they can't get in or out of trades as easily, then what can a trader make on a leverage of 10:1 without such constraints?

 

Your maths doesn't make sense at all. Are you sure you're a mathematician? You gave the probability of winning 5 trades in a row, not the probability of being ahead over those 5 trades.

 

Win rates of over 50% do occur, which you think are impossible.

 

Yes in the math sense, the market is definitely random. When most people say random though, they mean completely unpredictable. That's not what the math meaning is, so you may get into arguments over that

[zdo 20]

I don't think it's random I know its random from a mathematical point of view, regardless what you think or I or anyone else thinks.

...

I'm just a mathematician!

 

forexpipcatcher, Welcome to TL

 

Mathematician? That's great.

Of the linear or the non-linear variety?

ie history has now also completely infiltrated mathematics… so to hold yourself up as a mathematician is virtually meaningless on its own... but

If indeed you are a ‘mathemagician’ with a capital ‘M’, please explain random to us dummies out here in the lab…

but, please, first expose your position on chance and telos ( only one not the other, both, neither, etc.) ... thank you in advance very much...

 

 

 

A rather harsh welcome I know… but we seem to be hell bent on doing our best around here to run any weak posters off… whether you’ve got anything valuable to contribute or not…

( :haha: ie generally posting is restricted to 'subcriminal psychopath predators' only ie

be careful not to ask any questions unless you're a brand new, raw, suffering noobie...

 

... also certain individual members have additional requirements...

Steve46 has brutal eyes for 'infantile',

Mit demands 'beyond' PLUS a golden C... and

DbP will tear you a brand new one if you have any 'indicator' thoughts or questions...

that's how we roll... ;) )

 

Everyone on this planet has their own personal filters for reality and, thus, their own map of reality. The filters that we wear through life influence our personal and spiritual maps of reality. Every day we trek through similar territories, but because we wear different filters and use different maps, those territories appear different.

Edited May 8, 2013 by zdo

[forexpipcatcher 10]

Yes some brokers will resort to cheating. Others don't need to or won't.

 

Yes some of the best traders are at hedge funds, and 30% a year is spectacular gains if drawdown is low, but at what leverage is that? If they can make 30% on 1:1 leverage or 3:1, with the constraints associated with their size and the fact they can't get in or out of trades as easily, then what can a trader make on a leverage of 10:1 without such constraints?

 

Your maths doesn't make sense at all. Are you sure you're a mathematician? You gave the probability of winning 5 trades in a row, not the probability of being ahead over those 5 trades.

 

Win rates of over 50% do occur, which you think are impossible.

 

Yes in the math sense, the market is definitely random. When most people say random though, they mean completely unpredictable. That's not what the math meaning is, so you may get into arguments over that

 

I'll agree that my maths don't make any sense to a non mathematician like yourself. And so will many logics because people like yourself lack knowledge of probability but think there are miracles out there that produce so much all the time yet fail to find them. That is called a dream... so you are good at dreaming I stick to the probabilities so my example of winning 5 consecutive trades was perfect.

 

With regards to people being ahead with 50% that is likely and so is being behind with less than 50% winners. I advise you go back and revise your mathematics because I made It clear that if the probability of winning a trade was more than 50% then in a population you will END up winning and I would advise you use 1000:1 leverage if this was the case, but keep dreaming. Will any broker allow such thing with large trade size? Or will they monitor every trade you take and have special stops and protections in place because you can send them broke?

 

They will take a chance with peanuts as long as they protect themselves but that's another story that you don't know about otherwise you wouldn't introduce the leverage path. If Hedge funds can use higher leverage to produce more they would, anyone would the fact they don't means something from the worlds best performers.

 

To answer your reply of the chance of being ahead in many trades taken...The question is that winning a trade is it >50% chance or less? Since bias results will occur. If in one trade your chances of winning is low then in many more trades the chances will be even smaller is what mathematics tells you. So being ahead or behind is actually winning/losing, if you want to consider a basket of trades then do so as "one trade".

 

You vision is very limited because you believe in things rather than have the knowledge and record that you desire which is great in the non real world. The brokers will stand to lose to the small fish as long as the end result favours them.

 

I will tell you and any other person reading this what.. show me evidence of 2 years or more that you have made consistent money to replace your income not just a few dollars from trading and I will shut up and go and lick my wounds but guess what you are looking at a minority and very low minority (can this happen? YES but like I said a very low percentage) because just like the casino so many brag about winning but fail to see the big picture where they lost so much to gain so little over an extended period of time. So I believe the odds of making an income from trading is something like 2% (but still possible)... this is almost equivalent to being wealthy in society. Truth is if you have a winning system better than hedge funds the whole universe wants it and it would spiral out of control lol...You don't have to trade it just sell it and make billions lol

[Seeker 11]

I'll agree that my maths don't make any sense to a non mathematician like yourself. And so will many logics because people like yourself lack knowledge of probability but think there are miracles out there that produce so much all the time yet fail to find them. That is called a dream... so you are good at dreaming I stick to the probabilities so my example of winning 5 consecutive trades was perfect.

 

With regards to people being ahead with 50% that is likely and so is being behind with less than 50% winners. I advise you go back and revise your mathematics because I made It clear that if the probability of winning a trade was more than 50% then in a population you will END up winning and I would advise you use 1000:1 leverage if this was the case, but keep dreaming. Will any broker allow such thing with large trade size? Or will they monitor every trade you take and have special stops and protections in place because you can send them broke?

 

They will take a chance with peanuts as long as they protect themselves but that's another story that you don't know about otherwise you wouldn't introduce the leverage path. If Hedge funds can use higher leverage to produce more they would, anyone would the fact they don't means something from the worlds best performers.

 

To answer your reply of the chance of being ahead in many trades taken...The question is that winning a trade is it >50% chance or less? Since bias results will occur. If in one trade your chances of winning is low then in many more trades the chances will be even smaller is what mathematics tells you. So being ahead or behind is actually winning/losing, if you want to consider a basket of trades then do so as "one trade".

 

You vision is very limited because you believe in things rather than have the knowledge and record that you desire which is great in the non real world. The brokers will stand to lose to the small fish as long as the end result favours them.

 

I will tell you and any other person reading this what.. show me evidence of 2 years or more that you have made consistent money to replace your income not just a few dollars from trading and I will shut up and go and lick my wounds but guess what you are looking at a minority and very low minority (can this happen? YES but like I said a very low percentage) because just like the casino so many brag about winning but fail to see the big picture where they lost so much to gain so little over an extended period of time. So I believe the odds of making an income from trading is something like 2% (but still possible)... this is almost equivalent to being wealthy in society. Truth is if you have a winning system better than hedge funds the whole universe wants it and it would spiral out of control lol...You don't have to trade it just sell it and make billions lol

 

Actually I have a PhD in maths, specifically in probability, lol. So funny you are.

 

When you're in a hole, stop digging. You stated

 

"mathematically here is something to think about I'm going to assume a 50% chance of winning a trade right? Which is extremely high and doesn't exist... if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning for an UNBIAS SYSTEM, so imagine taking 100 trades. "

 

This is plainly wrong. There is a 3% chance of winning all 5 trades, but a much higher % of winning over the 5 trades. And you also claim 50% chance is extremely high and doesn't exist. That again is silly. I'm not the only one who recognised that your calculation and statement didn't make sense.

 

Like I said, stop digging.

 

Your post has demonstrated a clear lack of understanding in both maths and trading. JP Morgan recently announced they made a profit on 63 out of the last 63 days trading. Perhaps they fudge the figures, who knows, but according to you they should leverage to 1000, lol, because if they have anything better than 50% why not leverage all the way? Don't be absurd.

 

Your question is, is winning a trade higher than 50% or less? There is no way to even remotely answer that without stating stop and target and spread. Altering stop and target, I could make it 70%, 30% etc. win rate.

 

What are you trying to say? That it's impossible to make money trading?

Edited May 9, 2013 by Seeker

[Seeker 11]

Also since you didn't answer zdo's question, here is the answer:

 

Mathematically, when dealing with trials and outcomes, something is either deterministic or random. Random to a mathematician doesn't mean you can't say anything about it, it also doesn't mean the probability is 50-50.

 

For example a biased coin that ends up heads 90% of the time is still random. it's not deterministic, because before we toss the coin, we can't determine with certainty what the outcome will be. On the other hand, we can say what is probable. This corresponds to trading, and so the outcome of any trade (or the market) is random (mathematically), even if you have a backtested-forwardtested massive edge and a high prob of winning, i.e. unless you can say exactly what will happen, it's considered random.

 

However, the debate on these forums lately seems to be 'is the market random' and what seems to be meant there is, is it completely unpredictable and equally likely at all times to go up as go down.

Edited May 9, 2013 by Seeker

[forexpipcatcher 10]

forexpipcatcher, Welcome to TL

 

Mathematician? That's great.

Of the linear or the non-linear variety?

ie history has now also completely infiltrated mathematics… so to hold yourself up as a mathematician is virtually meaningless on its own... but

If indeed you are a ‘mathemagician’ with a capital ‘M’, please explain random to us dummies out here in the lab…

but, please, first expose your position on chance and telos ( only one not the other, both, neither, etc.) ... thank you in advance very much...

 

 

 

A rather harsh welcome I know… but we seem to be hell bent on doing our best around here to run any weak posters off… whether you’ve got anything valuable to contribute or not…

( :haha: ie generally posting is restricted to 'subcriminal psychopath predators' only ie

be careful not to ask any questions unless you're a brand new, raw, suffering noobie...

 

... also certain individual members have additional requirements...

Steve46 has brutal eyes for 'infantile',

Mit demands 'beyond' PLUS a golden C... and

DbP will tear you a brand new one if you have any 'indicator' thoughts or questions...

that's how we roll... ;) )

 

linear as in your mentality or aptitude? and since you claim your dummies then no explanation is needed after all if you were successful you wouldn't need explanation you would be achieving results and the fact that you're here nagging and bragging clearly demonstrates your ignorance to trading and the lack off understanding you have towards it. Now run along dummy and do your boss wants rather than wasting time here... get another job if needed but don't go pretending to be something your not other than what you claim a dummy.

 

Anything else scout?

[MightyMouse 12]

linear as in your mentality or aptitude? and since you claim your dummies then no explanation is needed after all if you were successful you wouldn't need explanation you would be achieving results and the fact that you're here nagging and bragging clearly demonstrates your ignorance to trading and the lack off understanding you have towards it. Now run along dummy and do your boss wants rather than wasting time here... get another job if needed but don't go pretending to be something your not other than what you claim a dummy.

 

Anything else scout?

 

I suggest that you use adolescent terms such as fag face, or pre-adolecent terms such as poopy head when you respond emotionally to a post. Such additions will add dimension, color, and context to your post.

[uriyanko 10]

Hello forexpipcatcher, welcome to TL

 

with this statement i assume you think the market is random, and hence I would like to ask - why trade?

If its random you cannot outperform the passive returns a market will give you over the long term.....

 

As for the linked thread, this just shows that some people will outperform a market even if their trades are random, while there is still a fair percentage that will actually make money, but the trade off boils down to passive v active trading/management.

I got the impression from your answer that for you the answer is about consistency despite the fact/evidence/probability that there will be some people who make money regardless of who they do it.

 

 

Hi

I think the topic is interesting even at the theoretical level - Is it possible to earn in market as such seems random or certain people think so. There are physical systems that can benefit from random fluctuations - automatic spring stretching system in mechanical clock, battery charging system using diode and so on.

[uriyanko 10]

Actually I have a PhD in maths, specifically in probability, lol. So funny you are.

 

When you're in a hole, stop digging. You stated

 

"mathematically here is something to think about I'm going to assume a 50% chance of winning a trade right? Which is extremely high and doesn't exist... if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning for an UNBIAS SYSTEM, so imagine taking 100 trades. "

 

This is plainly wrong. There is a 3% chance of winning all 5 trades, but a much higher % of winning over the 5 trades. And you also claim 50% chance is extremely high and doesn't exist. That again is silly. I'm not the only one who recognised that your calculation and statement didn't make sense.

 

Like I said, stop digging.

 

Your post has demonstrated a clear lack of understanding in both maths and trading. JP Morgan recently announced they made a profit on 63 out of the last 63 days trading. Perhaps they fudge the figures, who knows, but according to you they should leverage to 1000, lol, because if they have anything better than 50% why not leverage all the way? Don't be absurd.

 

Your question is, is winning a trade higher than 50% or less? There is no way to even remotely answer that without stating stop and target and spread. Altering stop and target, I could make it 70%, 30% etc. win rate.

 

What are you trying to say? That it's impossible to make money trading?

 

Hi

 

Market can be as random or behavior of the investor can be random - two different things. Realistically market consists of the total behavior of investors who try to behave as a certain logic - usually in relation to others and so the market could not be random. If any investor would enter a position at random and randomly out of it - then the whole market was random.

[forexpipcatcher 10]

The question is why trade if you think the market is random - as a mathematician you should know this. You may as well just be a passive investor - this is central to the debate about random markets.

It has nothing to do with if your broker is supposedly ripping you off because half the time they have nothing to do with any of it. If you are going to qualify your discussion about the bucket shops mainly in FX that are set up purely for this, and are essentially market making against you in the aim that most will blow up and they keep your account - yes this happens but whats this to do with randomness and markets - the OP is in the equities indexes?

 

Plus your maths --- what is that for?

You say....

if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning for an UNBIAS SYSTEM, so imagine taking 100 trades.

should you be saying.....

if you traded 5 times in a row thats 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = approx. 3% chance of winning 5 times in a row.

what about the old risk reward part of it?

 

As for casinos - I have no interest in a game whereby even if you can beat them you will loose regardless of how you do it -

 

I would suggest you start a thread here on TL, reveal it to everyone. :missy:

 

I understand that your R:R needs to be accounted for as it should be but that is one of many factors but if you can predict the R:R then what I suggest is you take out some lotto numbers very quickly.

The whole point of this thread which was started by that guy 1acdasd whatever lol is he tackles the market from a random point of view. He copped a lot of criticism but the fact remains he is perfectly correct and he pointed out how to tackle a random market if one is to achieve success but as usual all the losers bite at reality, and hence will remain losers.

 

I have created software to do what he suggested simply because I believe what he said was correct way before I read this thread and it is so far going well on demo and will be going live with a real account next week or the week after. Now if anyone is interested instead of bragging send me a private message to see the results.

[forexpipcatcher 10]

I suggest that you use adolescent terms such as fag face, or pre-adolecent terms such as poopy head when you respond emotionally to a post. Such additions will add dimension, color, and context to your post.

 

I will turn out like you if I do

[DbPhoenix 42]

II have created software to do what he suggested simply because I believe what he said was correct way before I read this thread and it is so far going well on demo and will be going live with a real account next week or the week after. Now if anyone is interested instead of bragging send me a private message to see the results.

 

Ah, the other shoe . . .