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Showing results for tags 'market reversal'.
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Over the past few days, the ES has been moving back down from the current highs made at 1377.25 on 2/29/12. The current tight uptrend has been in place since a pullback of around 60+ points in Dec last year. Now many people have been calling for a market top recently and so I thought it'd be useful to discuss the chances of this. Whilst this is a discussion about the ES, of course the same logic can be applied to anything else. Right now, I am seeing some signs of a possible pullback. Note that I said pullback not top. I think the distinction is important as I personally feel that the stock markets could be ultimately set to go much higher given the support that is so freely offered to them. I have done a couple of charts to help illustrate a key point. The first shows how until yesterday, the last 3 consecutive RTH sessions in ES to show lower highs were actually before the 60+ point pullback. Admittedly the ranges were much bigger at that time, but nonetheless, since then has been pretty much one-way traffic. The other point is that value or most traded volume in the same last 3 rth sessions, has been lower each day. Now this is not to say we are going into a retracement necessarily either. It's more than possible that we do move lower to establish a short term bracket low and move sideways for a time before moving one way or the other. Auctions basically tend to go:- Imbalance-Balance-Test-Imbalance The current move up from Dec '11 is imbalance. Anyway, balance can be short or not so short. The next chart shows possible areas of importance where the market may no longer be imbalanced to the upside and possibly when it may become imbalanced to the downside.(1350 odd and 1330 odd). The question is, what do you guys think of the odds of a short term retracement here?
